Explanatory Memorandum to COM(1978)408 - Proposal for a multiannual research programme in the field of climatology (Indirect action - 1979-83) (submitted by the Commission to the Council)

Please note

This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.

dossier COM(1978)408 - Proposal for a multiannual research programme in the field of climatology (Indirect action - 1979-83) (submitted by the ...
source COM(1978)408 EN
date 07-09-1978
ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES DE LA COMMISSION

COLLECTION RELIEE DES DOCUMENTS 'COM'

Contents

1.

COM (78)408


Vol. 1978/0157

Disclaimer

Conformement au reglement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du ler fevrier 1983 concernant I’ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communaute economique europeenne et de la Communaute europeenne de I’energie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, p.

1), tel que modifie par le reglement (CE, Euratom) n° 1700/2003 du 22 septembre 2003 (JO L 243 du 27.9.2003, p.

1), ce dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas echeant, les documents classifies presents dans ce dossier ont ete declassifies conformement a I’article 5 dudit reglement.

In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p.

1), as amended by Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1700/2003 of 22 September 2003 (OJ L 243, 27.9.2003, p.

1), this file is open to the public. Where necessary, classified documents in this file have been declassified in conformity with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation.

In Obereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar 1983 uber die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europaischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und der Europaischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S.

1), geandert durch die Verordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr. 1700/2003 vom 22. September 2003 (ABI. L 243 vom 27.9.2003, S.

1), ist diese Datei der Offentlichkeit zuganglich. Soweit erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in dieser Datei in Obereinstimmung mit Artikel 5 der genannten Verordnung freigegeben.
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

C0HC78) 408 final.

2.

Brussels, 11 September 1978


Proposal for a

multiannual research programme in the field of climatology (Indirect action -1979-83)

(submitted by the Commission to the Council)


COM(78) 408 final

CONTENTS

0. SUMMARY ’ • I*"!

1. INTRODUCTION ‘ ***** . 1

2. PRESENT STATE OF THE ART - 2

2.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES WORLDWIDE 2

AND IN EUROPE .

2.2. PRESENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT ' 5

3.

CLIMATE AND PROBLEMS RAISED THEREBY


3. MOTIVATION FOR A CLIMATOLOGY PROGRAMME OF : ' 8

THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ■ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

4.

5. IMPLEMENTATION, FUNDING AND MANAGEMENT OF THE PROGRAMME


APPENDIX 20

Some noteworthy weather extremes since 1960

22

5.

PROPOSAL FOR A COUNCIL DECISION


6.

0.1. Motivation - •


The present proposal concerns a EEC Research Programme in Climatology. -

This programme proposal -is motivated by two basic needs :

(i) To contribute to the understanding of the mechanism . of climate and of the causes of climatic variability ;

(ii) To assess the impacts that climatic variability could, have on basic European resources, as well as the role that man could be playing in that variability itself.

0.2. Climatic Variability and Man ^ '

The assumption of a constantly friendly climate is an unwarranted one, since the climatic variability observed in the past few centuries appears to represent the way in which climate normally behaves. 9 :

. What is new with respect to past centuries is the great . vulnerability characterizing the present society, due to our limited food and water reserves, which allow little.or Tio safety margins to a steadily increasing world population and to our expanding industrial system. .. L

. The present society’s strong dependence on technological means is also a factor to be taken into account. ' Technological 'progress could meet growing needs, but at the same time it would involve an increasingly large use of energy <i.e. an increasing depletion of resources) whitst causing a more intense pollution./

The latter’can in its turn affect the natural ecosystems and have adverse effects both on those resources themselves and on climate (e.g.. through direct energy input into the atmosphere and through accumulation of such pollutants as aerosols and carbon dioxide).

All this means that we might have to face a kind of climatic barrier to long-term energy growth.

0.3. Present state of knowledge ' . ,

7.

/ -' What we do and do not know about climatic variability can


be summarized as follows :

(a) We know that climate is essentially changeable ; we do not know the precise causes of its changes.

(b) We know that climatic changes may occur at any time ; we also know that man might have a role in determining them ; we do not know when.or where they could^pccyr.

In order to take into account as many as possible of the main facets of a truly complex problem, and at the same time to concentrate on objectives which are of highest priority in Europe, the following items have been considered for inclusion in the programme. Two research areas have been defined, dealing with

- ii -
XII/387/78 - EN
0.4. Programme Outline

(i) Climate's mechanism and behaviour ;

8.

and


(ii) The interactions between climate and man..

In addition, two "special activities” have been proposed, to provide support and guidance to the whole research work to be performed within the present programme.

9.

A. RESEARCH AREAS


I. "UQd|C|tlQdiQ9_£Ui|t|" .

The aim should be here to gain a deeper insight Ifito the mechanism and behaviour of climate. Although to truly understand such a mechanism may be as yet a far-distant target, it is felt that efforts should ' be spent in this direction, in order that ultimately any climatologically-based planning may be put on a firmer basis than empirical guesswork.

10.

1.1. Reconstruction of Past Climates


This should be achieved through the exploration and analysis of

a. Natural Records.

b. Observational and other Historical Records.

11.

1.2. Climate Modelling and Prediction


Work in this area should help towards the ultimate goal of any climate modelling, viz, climate prediction.

12.

It is suggested that efforts should be spent to


• a. Develop prediction methods based on a system-analysis approach.

b. Improve atmospheric circulation models.

c. Improve the simulation of the slowly varying components of the climatic system.

The emphasis should be here on short-term variability and impacts, with the end in view of arriving at reliable diagnoses and projections.

II'1. Climatic Variability and European Resources

Three major focal points are here suggested :

13.

a. Impacts on Land and Water Resources


b. Climatic Hazards Evaluation

c. Impacts on Energy Requirements/ Use and Production . . ■ " . .

II.2. Man's Impacts on Climate . ' ... •/ . _

/ . ' ■ - ' . k ' . • .. '

. \ Chemical and thermal pollution of the atmosphere

have been here selected :

14.

a. Atmospheric chemical pollution/ with a special emphasis on carbon dioxide accumulation


b. Release of Energy. r . -

3. SPECIAL ACTIVITIES ! . ;

These are meant to provide specific instruments in support of the previously mentioned research aims. .

15.

I. Establishment of an Interdisciplinary Group for the


- Study of Climatic Impacts

II. Inventory, Coordination and enrichment of European Climatic Data Sets ,

0.5. Implementation • ’ . ■ '. ■

■ The programme will be implemented as an indirect action by means of cost-sharing contracts with private and public research organizations ;in the Member States. This action shall be based on a preliminary effort to coordinate the ongoing research activities in the Member States/ which wilt allow :' . ' • . - . v -• ■ - - " v ■' '

] : (a) to def ine precisely the projects/ complementary to those research i . . activities/ which should be financed at Community level ; ; w

; (b) to avoid useless duplications ; , . .

tc) to promote the cooperation of scientists active in the field of climatology in the member stated. . . , . ,

0.6. Funding ' . ^ ^ '

The maximum contribution from the European- Communities budget the programme is estimated at 8.000.000 EUA to be used to fund rests rh contracts and coordination activities.' ' . . *' / .

f .0.7. Management ' : . :

1 This programme will be managed by the Commission/ counselled Ur :>-• Advisory Committee on Programme Management. - . .

16.

Natural climate variations are known to have had a major -


impact on human civilizations in the past, and their effects -have been keenly felt in droughts, badharvests, floods and other extremes and catastrophes in recent years. There . exists today no generally accepted explanation of these '

fluctuations, and there exists no reliable empirical or theore-tleal method for their prediction. The impact of man's expan- . ding activities on climate also constitutes a potentially grave-^ danger which cannot yet be properly assessed. The urgent need ~ , to improve our understanding of climate is widely recognized ; today and the problem is being addressed by a number of agencies,

* working groups and research programmes on the national and inter” national level. However, a coordinated European research programme has so far been lacking. It is the view of the Commission that such a programme would encourage new efforts in Europe and provide a valuable contribution to climatic research in general;

The motivation for such a programme is outlined in Section 3 of the present proposal. . , ; c " .

In the context'of this proposal climate is defined as various statistics of the weather averaged over periods of a month or more. .It is thus seen that one must distinguish between climate : Can averaged state) and weather (an instantaneous state). ,

. The science of weather, prediction attempts to predict the . detailed state of the atmosphere for the future. Due to our .

limited knowledge of the state of the atmosphere at any given time (based on many kinds of atmospheric observations of wind, temperature, pressure, humidity, clouds, sea-surface temperatures, etc.) and due to our limited knowledge of the physics of alt the atmospheric processes on many scales reaching from the microphysics of clouds to the macro-physics of global weather phenomena, .it is not possible to predict the weather in detail for long ■

.. periods of time. At the moment, it is generally agreed that the weather, i.e. the detailed state of the atmosphere, cannot be predicted for more than about two weeks. It must also be stressed that one still needs to demonstrate that this goal can be reached.

This state of affairs does not preclude the possibi lity that the averaged state of the atmosphere (that is climate) be predicted for periods longer than two weeks, although this represents at present an unsolved and very, difficult problem. For periods beyond t • weeks, the atmosphere can no longer be treated separately front the oceans, land and sea-ice, biosphere, chemical cycles and Other components of the climatic system. Because of their large inertia, these Components are generally regarded as given constants i- routine weather prediction. However, for the longer time scales oha-racteristlc of climatic.fluctuations the dynamical properties of the climatic system are largely governed by the components with ■' thermal and dynamical inertia. The proper understanding of

: the norv-atmospheric components, of, the climatic system then becomes ■ essential. , • ■ - - - ' ; ■ ‘ ' .

It should be emphasised that the gaps that exist in our present knowledge do not concern facts, but rather their causes and times of occurrence. Thus no scientist could possibly prove today that such and such disaster is awaiting us at a given date in the future.

But science has gathered proofs enough that climate can cause disasters It is therefore imperative that on one side we refine our means of investigation into the causes of climatic changes so as to reach a point where we can get early warnings of them ; on the other side we should improve our concept of 'likelihood of occurrence' by giving it a precise and an as high as possible probability value for specified times and places.

In other words, we have to decide whether we can afford to remain unprepared for likely, serious climatic changes in a possibly near , future, or whether we can go on polluting chemically and thermally . our atmosphere without minding of the possible consequences on climate. Growing needs may be met by technological progress, but the latter involves a greater use of energy, meaning a greater chemical and thermal pollution of our environment. Should climate be adversely affected by those by-products of technological expansion, we might have to face a kind of climatic barrier to long-term energy growth.

2. PRESENT STATE OF THE ART : ,

The present 'state.of the art' concerning climate and its relevance to human life may be conveniently treated under two headings :

1. Research activities underway, both world-wide and in Europe.

17.

2. Present state of knowledge about climate and problems raised


thereby. '

18.

2.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES WORLDWIDE AND IN EUROPE


2.1.1. Internationa (. Projects ;

19.

During the last decade there has been a significant increase in research on climate on a worldwide basis. The problems connected with the understanding of the present and past climates


And the possibilities for predicting future climatic states have not • only' resulted in significant individual efforts but have also inspired national and international programmes dealing with various aspects of the climate problem. . -

A truly international programme,, the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP), sponsored jointly b'y the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WM.O) has among its objectives the study of those physical processes in.the troposphere and stratosphere that are essential for an understanding of the factors that-determine the statistical properties of the general circulation of the atmosphere which would lead to better understanding of the physical basis of climate. r\ / ; . '

A number of other climate programmes exist.. These, have to a large " extent been created because of the renewed interest in climate modelling during the last decade induced partly by the possibility of man's impact on climate and partly by the implications of some of the early primitive climate models. A programme especially devoted to the assessment of . man-climate interactive impacts is being organized by the WMO.

2.1.2. U, S^^Pro^ects . . ... •

The scientific community in the USA has expressed its recognition of the need • for ctimatic research by a wett formulated plan for climatic studies during the next decades.' The plan is summarised in the book 'Understanding Climatic Change, A Program for Action', published by the U.S." National Academy of Sciences (1975). . .

This plan contains a wide spectrum of projects dealing with a ::

Climatic Data Analysis Programme (CDAP), a Climatic Index Monito- .

ring Programme (CIMP), and a Climatic Modelling and Applications v

Programme (CMAP). It is further recognised that these essentially , national programmes.must be seen in an.international setting. To further the aims of the climatic part of the GARP programme, it was also recommended to create an International Climatic Research Pro- ; gramme (ICRP). - : . ' , ; f - . . : • ' v

Another;"U.S.' Climate Program Plan" has been prepared by A Draf” . ting Group of the Interdepartmental. Committee for Atmospheric Sciences. It largely overlaps the former one by covering such topics as Climate Variability and National Activities, Diagnoses end Projections of Short-Term Climate Variability, Climate Data Mahjge-ment. Observations for Climate Research, etc. ; ,

An Important plan for a Carbon Dioxide Effects Research' and; ' > ^

Assessment. Program has been drawn by the Department of Energy. ‘It . ‘

aims at removing uncertainties from predicted future carbon”-li oxide’• concentration and at assessing Its possible consequences, not only ; climatic, but also biological, social and economical. -

There are in addition a number of more specialized progr^mm^s . which are all closely related to some aspects of climatic j^-rarch. Because the oceans dominate the climatic behaviour on a long time ; scale, it is Important that the oceanographic community is engaged In those aspects of oceanography which are relevant to climate

problems. Examples of such field studies are the Mid-ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE), the North Pacific Experiment (NORPAX), and a POLYMODE experiment, jointly sponsored by the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R. Other examples are the Climatic -

Impact Assessment Programme (CIAP) which was concerned with the impact on the climate by various air pollutants, and the Climate Dynamics Programme of the Advanced Research Programme (Department of Defence, U.S.A.). ; . .

2.1.3. yiSilxB^-Ecoieeti

Less detailed information is available from the U.S.S.R. about their programme for climatic research but it is known through the 6ARP planning meetings, that the U.S.S.R. scientists are keenly interested in climatic problems. Indeed, one of the first climatic models was , presented by a Russian scientist (Budyko).

2.1.4. Pro^ectsintheECCountries

(a) Climate modelling

It is convenient to separately consider the efforts in the modelling of climate which are made by use of general circu-latlon models (GCMs) and those carried on with models where the weather systems are treated on a statistical basis.

At present, the only GCMs in Europe which can be used for • climatic studies are fhose of the British Meteorological Office (BMO) and the ECMWF? The BMO models have been applied to long-range prediction, and have been used for analyses of specific circulation anomalies and also for studies of man-made climatic changes. The GCMs at the ECMWF are closely related to and based on models developed in the U.S.A. and are used for medium-range predictions. - .

There are GCMs under development at the Deutscher Wetter-dienst (Offenbach) and in France (Etablissement d’Etudes et de . Recherches Meteorologiques, Boulogne ; Laboratoire de M£teorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau). The Joint Universities Group in Reading has made particular efforts in analysing the behaviour of GCMs which may prove fruitful for an assessment of the reliability of results obtained with GCMs. Ocean circulation models are under development in France (Laboratoire d'Oceanographie Physique,

Paris) England (DAMPT, Cambridge ; Joint Universities Modelling Group, Reading) and in Germany (Max-Planck Institute, Hamburg).

Some of the parametrized models presented so far in Europe exhibit a certain skill in the simulation and analysis of the present mean state of the atmosphere (Wiin-Nielsen, ECMWF). Some are concerned with the testing of a specific scheme for the para-metrlzation of weather systems (e.g. Imperial College, London).

The work at the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg concentrates on studying the slowly varying.parts of the climate system. Simplified models are in the stage of development in France and Belgium (e.g. Laboratoire de Met^orologie Dynamique, Paris)

- - . . ' ■% 10 .

Some of these models concentrate on the study of selected mechanisms in the general circulation and the problem of seasonal prediction has been attacked. .

.(b) Reconstruction of Past C limates - \ , ,

Sporadic studies of climate in the historic past have been made in a number of European academic institutions and national meteorological services, and the results have been published in various scientific periodicals and weather service publications. . Because the data and techniques for reconstruction of the past . climatic record involve many branches of learning, -this kind ; of research appears best done in the full interdiscip’inary - .

setting of academic-.institutions* The advanced computational facilities and expert staff in the Laboratories of leading meteoro- /. logical services, on the other hand, are ideally suite to pursue .research of a theoretical nature, such as climate model ting,, numerical predictions and the exploration of the potential effects of " man’s activities on the climate regime.

There is an obvious need for a large amount of co-operation between these two angles of climatic research which is at present . (except In the United States) not fully met. Also, disproportionately less-work and support, has so far gone into the reconstruction of the -climatic record i a record that shall be long enough to cover many .• times the evolution of long-term processes that may be important to prediction over the coming decades. : . .

/ At present only a few groups and institutes exist in Europe where the observed record of climate beyond 100 years back is worked •• on by meteorologists. SmaLl groups or individual scientists in the national Meteorological Services and Universities in Europe have recently published papers that indicate activity in this field. One European research unit, the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, is almost totally committed to the reconstruction of past climates.: The. foremost objective of the work in this Unit is the reconstruction of past climates on a global scale with specific attention to the Atlantic/European sectors. The work is largely carried out by a team of atmospheric scientists in collaboration with other scientists at a full multi-interdisciplinary level.

2.2. PRESENT STATE . OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CLIMATE AND PROBLEMS RAISED THEREBY .

,1he following considerations apply in general to all climatological' research throughout the world. .

2.2.1. §enerai_Research on Climatr- . - ,

20.

Climate is at present understood in its broad .characteristics, but we have relatively little knowledge about the major precedes cf '.climatic change. In other words, the mechanism of climate 1- not


understood In any detail sufficient for instance to allow climatologists to forecast climatic conditions. ■.

It is therefore essential that the scientific community be alio-wed to increase substantially the amount of data available about the various components of the climatic system.-Without ,

21.

these data, theories would remain largely unchecked and even the best model would be of little use. -


Overall available data are so far only fragmentary and do not allow us to decide for example which are the most important causes of climatic variations, or which are the most sensitive of the many processes involved in the interactions of various components of the climatic system. ^

We also ignore how much of the long-term variations, so far known to have occurred, depends on cyclic regularities (of which the causes should be ascertained), and how much on purely random processes.

All these questions must clearly be answered before we even attempt to consider the ultimate question of climate predictability. This last and all-important problem will be solved only after : .

(a) both theory and dynamical models have been further developed

and applied ; / ^

(b) the data bases now available have been greatly extended, both in space and in time. ■

2.2.2. Research on Man-Climate Interactions '

When we come to consider the vast and hitherto largely inexplored field of man-climate interactions, the same situation of a poor or insufficient knowledge is encountered. In this case however it is not only a question of a lack of scientific evidence : climatic variability, either natural or man-indiced, may create serious problems for our present economic and social structure. .

Our economic and social stability is strongly climate-dependent.

The climates, of our planet have always been changing, and without any doubt they witl continue to do so in the future. What we d0 not know is how large these future changes will be, and how rapidly they wi.ll occur. ,

A major climatic change would bring about worldwide economic and social readjustments, since the evolution of the global patterns of food production and population has been so far largely controlled by climatic conditions. _ . '

At present, world grain reserves are only a few percent of annual consumption ; the occurrence of an unfavourable climatic - .

period, coupled with the increasing food demands of an exploding population, could play havoc. We do not have therefore to wait for a new ice age in order to see our agricultural system devastated.

A major social or economical disaster could be brought about by a relatively minor climatic change, such as one of those that have so often occurred, even in the recent past. .

Similar considerations apply to water resources, whether we consider them from the standpoint of domestic use, or irriga- , tion, or electric power generation, or industrial use. Here - V too population growth, the expansion of towns and in- • dustrial development are putting an increasing strain on a resource which is already becoming scarce. Thus while unfavou- . rable climatic conditions could make that scarcity greater, one might on the contrary wish that they were favourable In order . to cope with demands and build up reserves. , .

Although we know that water and food resources depend on . .

climate> we ignore the precise relationships def in'r.g .-that dependence in a quantitative way. Hence an urgent need for well-planned scientific research. . , . ; .

The problem is made more serious by the possibility that climate changes may be the consequence of human activities.,

Man ■ is steadi ly modifying many of the factors which are known . to determine climate. Such modifications may be small, but for , climate, in general, there is no a priori way of deciding the - . magnitude of the effect from that of the cause, since positive feedback, mechanisms' could act as amplif iers of seemingly small initial perturbations. \ ' .. ■

Man is for instance changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere by all kinds of pollutants, and in particular by burning fossil fuelsthat steadily increase the concentration of carbon dioxide. Man is destroying forests, which also increases -the atmospheric carbon dioxide content while altering the surface albedo.and thus.affecting the earth's radiation balance. Man is also pouring large quantities of heat into the atmosphere, thus perturbing the planet’s energy budget. ' ... . „ , .

2.2.3. Summin^uQ' ' ' . : - ' .

All this points'to a situation which in general terms can be briefly described as follows ; ' ' -. • . • , ;

(a) We know that climate is essentially changeable ; we do -not know the precise causes of its changes. : ;

<b) We know that cl-imatic changes may occur at any-time ; ' we also know that man might have a role in determining"

• them ; ,we do not know when or where they could occur . . , . *

(c) We know that even relatively small changes, might produce .

- ■ . important effects'; we. do not know the quantitative

relationships- linking climatic changes to; the possible -. " changes in the. variables important to man’s life and --ll- '

’■. being. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ : : I y... . . : v ‘ '

(d) We need therefore to. concentrate our efforts towards .f - aim

of eliminating as many as possible of our present unce-.-- Hn-

... ties, so as to avoid as many as possible of the thr ■ns'that

climatic varisbii.ity may have in store for us, . .

22.

3. MOTIVATION fOR A CLIMATOLOGY PROGRAMME OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES


Climate has moved to the foreground of public interest during the recent years, when climatic events of an unusual character have convinced most . peopte that there is no warranty for any assumption of. climatic constancy over the span of time for which economic planning is undertaken.

The implications of climatic variability are serious : compared with recent decades, there continues to be a risk for adverse weather conditions, which are to be feared especially for their occurrence during sowing, growing and harvesting seasons. . -

Many climatic extremes have occurred during the 1960s and 1970s (see Appendix) and the economic and social impacts of some of these have been rather drastic : global grain reserves have dwindled-to negligible amounts ; food markets and prices have been upset ; there is now a real threat of starvation to millions of people in developing countries.

Climatic change is therefore not only a subject of theoretical interest : the most compelling reasons for its study are in fact the growing awareness . that our economic and social structures are deeply influenced by climate, while man’s activities themselves may be able to contribute to climate's instability, possibly in an undesirable direction.

This is true in particular for the EC Countries which are closely interrelated both economically and socially, and which share regional climates extending across political boundaries. Thus any major impact, whether of climatic variability on natural resources or of human activities on climate, could never be limited to any one European country. In this respect it may also be observed that the EC Countries cover an area which has the ideal dimensions for the,study of regional impacts, as distinguished from local or microclimatic, and global effects. ~

Water is one of the most important resources to be considered at Community level. Its replenishment depend on the hydrological cycle, and the latter is one of the main components of the climatic system. The Community’s atten-tion,is already focussed on water resources, the need having been realised of a much stricter planning and control in view of the economic growth, urban concentration and even deficiency, of water in certain areas, threatening to hinder general development, especially of agriculture and industry. The . < necessity has therefore been recognized of taking account of the interdependence of the various environmental factors, which cannot be managed separately CD

The Community is also concerned with the protection of particular areas,

Sitcn as the mountain regions, whose fragility (soil and climate) makes them particularly subject to erosion and various natural disasters like avalanches, landslides and flooding of streams (2)' Here again climate comes to the foreground

CD European Community Action Programme on the Environment (1977-1981), Council Resolution of 17 May 1977, 0J N°. C 139, pp. 29-30.

D- Qd N°. C 139, p. 25 .

. ! As regards general criteria, the present programme proposal meets the ; ;

four general objectives of the Community Science and technology policy i ?

r . which are : . . ' . j . • \ • • . : ;

CD the long-term supply of resources ; ' ' : r

* t ii> the promotion of internationally competitive economic development ;

(iii) the improvement of the living and working conditions-; ;

' Civ) the protection of the environment and nature. - ^

23.

ri-


j General criteria i are also met : effectiveness (greater efficiency r at Community level ; this as regards in particular interdisciplinary studies and data management), transnational nature and common requirements (the satisfaction of needs common to all EC Countries, e.g. as regards environmen „ resource planning, pollution control, data acquisition,, etc.). .

Climate research j[s going on already at the national level in most EC 1 Countries. But, for the reasons explained above, climatology is afield ,

of endeavour where coordinated efforts are most needed. European competences are unevenly distributed, and an EC programme would bring together the best specialists available in each discipline, thus making the best use of their knowledge and experience, besides encouraging present efforts and stimulating new research in a field of growing interest. . ^

: It is however understood that, due to the global nature of climate varia- .. tions, an EC climate programme should be regarded as a contribution to l

: . worldwide efforts such as the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) ;

- sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization and the International ■

24.

Council of Scientific Unions, or the World Climate Programme, which is now'


. being planned by the World Meteorological Organisation in collaboration ,

with other international organisations. The first of these two programmes correspond to Research Area I of the present proposal ; the second to j

Research Area II. ^ • . . i

•• * ■; • •; ^ : •. •.' . . - •• ' . ; / ■ ■ •" 1 1 *.1 - , ■ r.) ■ * : ' ■ - ’* '. ■ ■ ■

Common Policy in the field of Science and Technology, "Gu’<nes",

; C0M(77)283 ; R/1659/77(RECH 16). ' ,

25.

4. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PROGRAMME


4.1. GENERAL REMARKS ,

Climate may be considered both <i) by itself as one of the many facets of the natural world and (ii) as a part of man's environment and as such in interactive relationships with man's activities.

On these grounds two research areas have been naturally considered for the present programme, the first having its main emphasis on climate's mechanism, the second on the interactions between man and climate. • . ,

Indealing with ctimate mechanism, under Research Area 1, explicit mention has been made of mathematical models as an obvious means of dealing with the problem. Elsewhere more experimental methods may have been stressed. . j '

It should be understood however that no constraint is :

put in general on the means whereby a given problem could be solved. Various methodological approaches are in principle applicable to the several research items described later on. - They include for instance

(a> Experimental research ; measurements and monitoring activities

(b) Statistical^valuations of climatological records ; , ■

(c) Simulation, diagnosis and projection studies, as regards both long- and short-term climatic variability and impacts.

To properly implement the programme, it has be found advisable to also suggest the establishment of :

<i) a group of climatic experts especially appointed to study . the possible impacts due to the interactive relationships • between man and climate.; ‘ \ . ‘

(ii) a system of data storage, enrichment and management, whereby up-to-date climatic data may be freely and rapidly accessible to all researchworkers concerned

4,2. RESEARCH AREAS '

4.2.1. ||search_Area_I : "Understanding^limate"

4.2.1.1. Objectives . * .

The general objective of this research area is that of gaining a deeper insight into the mechanism and therefore the behaviour of clin*tie, the ultimate goal being climate prediction, especially on a usefulcy short-term (weeks to decades) scale* To achieve that goal it is necessary : '


r-

--.f ■

* : \.

- ‘ ’ r1"

(i) "To reconstruct the past record of climate in as much detail, over as much of the Earth and as'far back in

' time as data and interpretative techniques permit ;

(ii) To analyse that record so as to be able to determine

the causes of the changes observed ; *• • '

(ill) To improve theoretical understanding and knowledge . of the development of climate, the" circulation proces-_ ' ses in the atmosphere and oceans and the interactions , involved, and the nature of the impact of external -

- influences.. , . ' , -

Clearly these observational and theoretical attacks are clo- ^ ,

sely interlinked and need to be pursued hand in hand, by also taking advantage of data obtainable through research work, in Research Area II.. . ;

26.

4.2.1.2. Research Themes under Research Area I


* . . • ■ _ y • ' _ • . - • '

I.T. Reconstruction of Past Climates : / . /

The past variability of climate on long time scales can provide, ' valuable information on the dynamics of the climate system. Furthermore, in order to obtain reliable- statistics, the sampling .

: period of a continuous statistical process should be considerably longer than the fluctuation periods of interest. There is a \ '•**“

- convincing evidence that climatic changes and variability have been • significantly better in the past than in the short period of

instrumental observation on a global scale (ca. 100 years). There is also a growing evidence of quite abrupt climatic changes which , would be really catastrophic to mankind if they would repeat. For these reasons the analysis of past climates should be. an important contribution to the present Programme. . .

- ■ ' ‘ - * ’ ■’ 1 ■ • v .. - • ’ ' > . ‘ t ■ " - . i ‘

There exists a wealth of unexplored historical information-on climate in Europe which should be collected and organized. These include both (a) Natural Records and (b> Observational and other \ Historical Records. . : ; :

(a) includes for example fossil types of data such as tree-rings ; year-layers in lake sediments, river estuaries and ice-sheets ; .concentrations of stable isotopes of oxygen, carbon, nitrocen, etc. in the Wood substance of tree-rings and in the ice of . ice-sheets ; pollen analysis ; analysis of insects and marine microfaunes in the sedimentary records, etc. .

(b) Includes for example records of measurements made in the past . ' .about meteorological parameters, as welt as reported data -about , ,

floods, frosts,^harvests,'disastres caused by weather, tfc.; /

Such records should be explored and analysed in such a way is to ;

■ > bring to light the circulation processes in the atmosphere ?• .1 the ' oceans, and-any external influences (solar/ tidal, volcanic or other). "

which undertied the changes made evident by the records themselves. . . .

r-

' 'v.1V ; .-,‘i

: ■ r'' Vv> /-vV

'V*,- • i ■ • .* v'T

Xvi. '. ' V' I • V'<. V ’*


f . 1.2. Climate modelling and prediction : ,

* The ultimate goal of climate modelling is climate prediction,

27.

p and it is obvious that society is interested in climatic pre-


| dictions of time scales from the limit of detailed weather pre- ‘

[ dictions (say, two weeks) to many years. Apart from the immediate

28.

j relevance to society, this time scale interval is also more pro- „


I; > m'ising for theoretical studies than the longer time scales because .

! . • of the better availability of data. ,

|j ’ Studies aimed more specifically at the problem of forecasting

climate should therefore be encouraged, and in this context three .

|i main possible growth points can be identified : '

j! ‘ . • . " . ■, ' . ’ •

|| (a) A System-Analysis Approach - ' .

|j The techniques of system analysis should be used in order

|‘ to provide extrapolation techniques useful for periods -

; of the order of magnitude of one month. -

[ x A technique currently used at present consists^'in selecting

j - a so-called 'historical antecedent' to a present situation

|i from climatic archives. . <• ; ' . .

29.

, Assuming the two situations to be identical, they should


!■■ ’ have an identical evolution. The problem is here to identify

jf\,. and correctly select those parameters that can act as useful

' , predictors of^climatic change. The technique of system ana- ;

I! _ lysis should be used for the. selection of such predictors,

30.

j with the advantage that the choice would be guided by synoptic


. as well as by dynamical - criteria. 1 ' . .

31.

, . (b) Atmospheric Circulation Models


An attempt should be made at developing numerical models of ,

‘ . the atmospheric circulation directed specifically at the

•. problem of climate prediction. Appropriate simplifications j

■ of the.detailed general circulation models could be guided,

- : by the use of special analyses of global atmospheric data and .

by the existing General Circulation Models. One would in , v- ' this way develop and test numerical models w,ith relatively ; j few degrees of freedom compared to the detailed GCMs, and '

32.

I perform analyses of atmospheric data relevant to the design


of such models. Test cases should include not only 'normal'

33.

J climatic conditions, but also spectacular excursions like the


{ . . , drought in north-western Europe during 1976. Care should be

' taken to include in such models a proper treatment cf the physical processes at the air-land and air-ocean interfaces, .

34.

. a hydrological cycle and a treatment of the upper mixed layer


1 of the ocean. . . '

35.

Slowly varying elements ^


* \ As the periods of the prediction of the atmosphere become

36.

1 ' longer, it, is almost certain that the detailed atmospheric


j - , description will play a lesser role, while the oceans and the

. other slow-response parts of the climatic system will play a ,

greater role. It has .thus been realised recently that predic-; tion m.-dets for the longest time scale must concentrate on the ;

37.

' evolution of the slowest-response parts. Models of this nature


i are i*1 their Infancy, but give great promise for further

j , . ./ . development. ' ' ■. ; . ••• .

. One should therefore try develop models for climate pre-~ ,

dictions' concentrating on the ■ rts of the climatic system with tre . slowest response (continental sheet, deep circulations of the oceans, changes in vegetation and snow cover over land and of drif- -ting sea ice). It will be required to include the physics of the .

slowly-varying components, their interactions and the specification of the statistical representations of the faster-response components _ of the system. The models should be tested and attempts should made ' to make experimental forecasts for 100 years. '

4.2.2. Research Area II : ”Research_on_Man~Climate Interactions"

38.

4.2.2.1. Objectives ; . ' '


If one considers short-term needs and impacts, the present one is probably the most^ important field of research. Recent problems ■concerning the availability and distribution of food, water and energy have raised the general level of concern about the impacts of climate on man's resources, as well as about the possible impacts • of human activities on climate. ’ . . • , ’ -

The objective of the research .work to be performed in this area should therefore be that of assessing in an as precise and quantitative way as possible i the relationships between climate variability and the availability, spacewise and timewise, of important resources,, and (2) the impacts that .certain human activities could have on climate.

The assessment of such relationships and impacts will be. typically - . the result of an interdisciplinary study. For this reason, besides the implementation of specific research projects within the present Research Area, the establishment of an Interdisciplinary Group is proposed (see below under. 'Special Activities'). ^

39.

4.2.2.2. Research Themes under Research Area II


Since man-climate interactions can be considered both ways. Research Area II includes naturally the following two research themes. .

“ I1.1. Climatic Variability and European Resources .

(a? Impacts on Land and Water Resources .

Climatic variability affects land and water resources in many- . fold ways. This clearly applies to such natural hazards a droughts and floods, as well as to surface and ground water , demands for energy, domestic and agricultural purposes.

Proper land and water resources management, especially i.: view of hazard reduction, requires therefore that one is abU to ,

- obtain a knowledge of the frequency and magnitudes of pfa;. ■

and present climatic changes. , . .

40.

Water resource planning is based at present on statistical . and probability predictions. Therefore the extension of the


> historical records concerning run off should allow ifi? rayed. / estimates of the probability of future streamflow t y S a . ■ This kind of information is important in forecasting .tho evai-lability of domestic water, irrigation water and hydr^lestric f power., - •• :

Research should therefore be focussed on the quantitative relationships between specific changes in climatic variables and the occurrence and availability of surface and ground water. Recharge processes/ which are known to be sensitive to climatic conditions, should be investigated in this respect.

Soil moisture and vegetation are mutually linked : the effects of changes in either of these should be studied in relationship to specified climatic conditions.

Rainfall outlooks, limited at present to one month ahead, should also be Improved upon and cast in terms of probability or ranges of'expected valyes in order to be properly used. Spatial and temporal correlations, known as teleconnections, should be systematically explored to these purposes, .

The agricultural community needs monthly or seasonal rainfall and temperature predictions for the growing season several months in advance, in order to plan crop types, , seed varieties and fertilizer needs. Suppliers may need longer times, and. government planners and policy makers may . want even longer periods, possibly one year in advance.

Extensive new observations of the relevant parameters should be gathered and diagnosticalty analysed in order to help the construction of new statistical prediction formulas and the . generation of further hypotheses for testing with proper models. The highest priority should be given to research aimed at developing yearly projection techniques.

(b) Climatic Hazards Evaluation

A special field of endeavour is the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of such extraordinary yet economically and socially important events as disasters, like floods and droughts, caused by climatic conditions.

Flood hazard planning could be improved by the extension of our knowledge about past flood recurrence, using evidence from the geological records, coupled with the evaluation of changes in the surface run off characteristics.

. . ' ' ■ ■ \■ ■ .

41.

Similar considerations apply to snow hazards, such as snow


avalanches in mountain regions and snow hazards to buildings and communications in regions where snowfalls are normally light or infrequent.

„ ■ Droughts are also a kind of hazard that properly oriented climatic research could he.Lp predicting and being prepared against, especially in view of a proper management of water resources. > y . , ' -

(c) Impacts on Energy Requirements, Use and Production .

Climate has a profound influence on the amount of..;v>wer required, and even on, the means whereby power is generated (for instance electrical energy from water reservoirs, solar . energy in sunny regions). Conversely, power generation and-v use may affect climate, through thermal or chemical pollution , of the atmosphere. ' , '

42.

Apart from general climatic effects, a knowledge of the climatic conditions Ukely to be experienced by any given region is necessary for planning both site selection and plant design


- , and op'eration. Especially needed is a better capability of

relating the dispersion of airborne pollutants, especially those of a toxic kind, with ambient climate conditions. Such ■ information is particularly lacking for irregular zones such'

v as mountain-valley complexes, coastal regions and forest areas.

Besides their relevance to hydroelectric power production, water flow forecasts and precipitation outlooks are important for cooling plants necessary to nuclear and fossil' power plants, since about 60% of the energy produced is dissipated as heat.

- For this reason the rainfall and run off prospects of any given v region have a marked influence on energy production. .

. Finally, climatic forecasts or outlooks have an obvious rele- >-

- vance to the planning of energy production in view of heating

and cooling needs, . ^

II.2. Man’s Impacts on Climate ,

It has been recognized that man’s activities can affect tihe climate of the earth, possibly in an unfavourable way/ Inadvertent climate modifications are here meant, and among the various possible research fields the following have been selected. , y , .

(a) Atmospheric Chemical Pollution, with a special emphasis on , '

. Carbon Dioxide release , .

Direct contamination of the atmosphere is one of the most obvious of man’s influences on his environment, one moreover that can .

. have direct effects on climate. ’ y •' , ,

* Particles and certain trace gases influence the heat balance

43.

, of the atmosphere by changing the flux of solar and infrared


radiation. Particles are also involved in the initiation of , condensation and freezing in clouds.

• \ f * •' " ' . v • - - ' -

, Among gaseous products, by far the most important for its possible impacts on climate is carbon dioxide, which man has been pouring into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era. Thus CO, concern-tration has increased from about 290 ppm by the year 1860 to about 320 ppm by 1970, that is about a 10% increase , in.110 years. But since C02 concentration is growing exponentially, the next lOX^increase would only take 20 years, and a 100% increase would occur after 50 years, that is by 2020. .

Such a doubling of the CO^ global concentration could effect an increase, of the temperature near the earth's surface by about 2°C. Such a warming would constitute a serious climatic modification which could lead to irreversible effects, such as the destruction of the ?

Arctic Sea ice with a drastic shift, of all climatic belts northwards. While a disappearance of the floating Arctic sea ice would have no immediate effect on sea level, the possibility of a large-scale surge of Antarctic shelf-ice has been suggested, which would cause a danger of inundations over low coastal regions. •

Various hypotheses have to be tested in this connection ; for instance, the earlier assumption of a permanent 50% storage in the ocean and the biosphere of the released fossil C0-, may be untenable. Increased deforestation may prevent the biological storage of important quantities of CO^, while the storage in the oceanic upper mixing layer could only last a few decades, because of the low mixing rate with the cold layers below the'thermocline.

44.

Large amounts of CO, could therefore be released by the '


oceans sooner or later and this process would be intensified by a slow acidification Cdue to pollution) and warming (due to the "greenhouse effect” of CO^ itself) of the upper mixing layer. On this basis a fivefold increase in the CO^ concentration after 100 years cannot be excluded if the use of fossil fuels were to continue unchecked at the present growth rate.

On the other hand, scientists are not unanimous as regards the temperature impact of such an increase. Estimates of the mean temperature rise due to CO, vary, and the net temperature change which could result against the observed cooling trend since 1940 is .not certain.

It appears therefore that one of the highest priorities in the present Programme should be assigned to the C02 accumulation problem in order to assess precisely : •

- ■ . ■ , ■ ■ ‘ ■ - ■

Ci> past and present CO^ concentrations ;

<ii) sources and sinks of C02, and their evolution in time ;

(iii) exchange rates between the various compartments of the climatic system ; .

Civ) climatic and other environmental Impacts.

The assessment of such facto s should be arrived at through both applied research and proper modelling. Monitoring should be provided by a number of'stations suitably chosen pr possibly established to the .

. ' present purpose. ^ . ■

(b) Release of Energy , ^ :

Thermal pollution is also a cause for concern, since man is thereby - ,

, significantly contributing to the energy-budget of the‘earth by burning 11 ' fossil fuels : coal, gas and petroleum products. The rapidly increasing contribution from nuclear power plants must also to be included in any ; future projections. For 1970 the global energy production has been estimated at about 6 x 10**9 cal/year. Distributed" evenly over all continents this energy amount corresponds to a small fraction of the net solar radiation at the earth's surface ; but the annual growth rate of : energy production has been gradually rising, with an average global increase of about 4-5% annually, according to UN data. This is equivalent to a rise by a factor of 3 to 4 in 30 years. There will be therefore ■' many areas in the world in which the additional energy input will approach the order of magnitude of the natural net radiation. The EC energy output for 1976 can be calculated from EC data i to have been 7.5 x 10^ Kcal, which corresponds to about 0.6 Wm"2. An assumed growth o_f 3% per year would bring the average energy output to about 1.2 Wm“2 by the year ’

' 2000 and to about 5.2 Wm~2 by the year 2050, the solar radiation at the

earth's surface being about loo Wm”2. Those being average values, clearly urban and industrial areas would add much more to the natural radiation input. For instance, the value for West Berlin has been about 21 Wm“2 during the years 1965 to 1968, and it was already 19 Wm“2 for Sheffield ‘ in 1952 (2)

The effects of urban and regional heat sources on Continental and global ; climate are however uncertain ; we can speculate that there is a possibility that such areas may sooner or later trigger some changes in the ,local or large-scale weather patterns. A certain amount of research work should be directed towards the assessment of the possibility and the magnitude of such changes. : , .

‘ i ' ' ' • • ^ ' • - ■ • ' ' ' . ■ '

4.3. SPECIAL ACTIVITIES . v \

45.

4.3.1. Objectives


The objectives of the work to be performed under 'Special Activities' correspond to four basic needs, namely : ■ \

<i) to correlate in a panoramic and synthetic view the data coll^ -ed * under Research Areas I and II ; .

(ii) to provide suitable diagnoses and projections concerning • climatic variability and impacts ;

(iii) to provide suitable instruments and services for climatological research. V ^

4.3.2. Specific_Instrumente,and_Services

' i , .

(a) A European Interdisciplinary Group for the Study of

Climatic Impacts

Scientific disciplines applied to climatological research . may be or become so highly specialized that the necessary comprehensive view of the whole may be lost in individual efforts. Yet, due to the highly interactive nature of all climatic or climate-related factors, climatological research is typically one where a panoramic view has to be maintained at all costs. Hence the necessity of establishing an Interdisciplinary Group whose task should be to take care of " needs (i) and (ii) stated above. The Group should include a number of European Experts in various disciplines selected on the basis of their relevance to and complementarity in climatological research.

(b) Inventory, coordination and enrichment of European Climatic

' Data Sets .

Climatological research in general and projection studies in particular will require extensive data collections. Various centres in Europe possess or are building up such data collections either from modern observations or from natural or historical records* To make the best possible use of such a work in the frame of the present Programme, it appears essential

(i) that an inventory of the existing European data sets,

sources and formats be established and regularly updated ;

> (ii) that practical means be devised to favour the exchange of data between the various centres, and their general availability to the scientific community ;

(iii)that new, useful data sets from outside the EEC Member States be acquired.

46.

5. IMPLEMENTATION, FUNDING AND MANAGEMENT OF THE PROGRAMME


This programme will be implemented as an indirect action by means of cost-sharing contracts with private and public research institutions in the Member States. It will be managed by the Commission Services, . assisted by an Advisory Committee on Programme Manageme->t.’

The indirect action should be coupled to an effort to coordinate the ongoing research activities in the Member States, which will allow : ’

(a) to define precisely the projects,, complementary to :hose research activities, which should be financed at Community level ;

(b) to avoid useless duplication ; -

(c) to promote the cooperation of scientists active1 in the field of

climatology in the Member States, . ; .

The maximum contribution by the Commission of the European Communities for the entire 5-year period (1979-1983) is estimated at 8.000.000 EUA. The relative distribution of funds between the various parts of the programme will be decided by the Commission and the Advisory Committee after definition of the internal priorities of the programme and examination of all research proposals submitted. * ' : .' J

tentatively, the relative■distribution of funds could be approximately the following : •• . , . v

Research Area I : 40%

' Research Area II : 40%

Special Activities : 20%

The programme will be submitted after two years to. review and possible revision on the basis of results achieved and new research needs. Consequently, initial contracts will be limited to a period of 2 or 3 years, subject to extension if warranted. Moreover, considering the transfrontier character of climatic problems, provisions will be made to offer to COST countries to participate in the research programme.

47.

APPENDIX


SOME NOTEWORTHY WEATHER EXTREMES SINCE 1960 •

! (courtesy by Dr. T.H. Morth) . •

1961 Extraordinary yield of the equatorial rains in east Africa ;

the great lakes there rose in a few months to above all twentieth century records. '

1962-63 Coldest winter in England since 1740.

1962-65 Driest 4-year period in the eastern United States since records began in 1738. .

48.

1963- 64


49.

1964- 65


Driest winter in England and Wales since 1743.

50.

Coldest winter over an area from the lower Volga basin


to the Persian Gulf since 1745. '

* ' ' * ■

Supposedly ice-free port of Murmansk, on the south coast of the Barents Sea, blocked by the Arctic pack-ice for the first time known. ' ,

51.

1964 Snow covered all the uplands of South Africa and South' , West Africa in June, the heaviest and most widespread


- snowfall there since ,1895*, causing many deaths.

.1965-66 Baltic Sea completely ice-covered.

52.

1968


Ice half-surrounded Iceland and stopped shipping for the first time for 80 years, since 1888.

_ • ‘ • • • ' ‘. . >

53.

1968-73


Severest phase of the prolonged drought in the Cape Verde Islands, the African Sahel and Ethiopia, surpassing all twentieth century records for length and severity combined.

54.

1968 and


55.

1969


Slow-moving cyclones produced on 4 occasions 2-day rainfalls exceeding the once-in-50-years expectation in several lowland .districts of.England and Ireland. ‘ .

1960-69 Driest decade in central Chile since the 1790s. •

56.

1969 Lowest frequency of Westerly wind days in Britain for over ~


109 years, possibly since 1785.

57.

1971 Barometric pressure map for the month of September showed


, anomalies in three areas (North America, North Atlantic

and Siberia) amounting to 5 standard deviations from the average values for the earlier part of the century. .

. - 21 ~ XII/387/78 - EN

'• . • ’• ' ‘ • ' " . ■ . " ^
1971-72Coldest winter of record in parts of -eastern Russia and Turkey : River Tigris frozen over in eastern Turkey.
1972 _

■ \ -
Highest summer temperatures sver observed in northern

Russia and Finland : 33°C in Lapland. • .

Greatest drought for many years caused general ■ shortfall of the harvests in Russia and Soviet Asia. ■ '■

Number of icebergs (1,587) on the western Atlantic south of 48°N exceeded (by 250)'any previous year since records began in 1880. . i , '
1973Great Lakes of North America and Mississippi River at highest level since 1844, following several notably wet

years. . '■ ■ . ' . . •

Mexico sharing the drought affecting Africa at the Same . latitude : the severest drought in central America, for many years. . , .

Snow again in South Africa. First ever report of Snow -

on high ground in Queensland, northeast Australia.
1973-74Floods beyond all previous reported experience in January, stretching across the central Australian desert to the northwest and east of the continent, ended succession of great drought summers./ . : . ; . -v '
1974-75'’Mildest winter in England since 1834. - ' . -

Virtually no ice on the Baltic Sea, least ice since perhaps 1652. • , .
1975 "Great heat-wave in western Europe about 4-11th August, mean temperatures for the week in the Netherlands and

Denmark (about 24°C) exceeding previous highest by . . . over 2°C. . . '

The Arctic sea ice returned to Iceland for the first '

V time in July in the twentieth century. '
1975-76Great drought in western and central-northern Europe, especially England/ where rainfall from May 1975 onwards for 16 months were the lowest since the beginning of the' record in 1727. . r
1976' **'' ' * ' • _ • ' ... . ■

Great heat in June-early July in western Europe : tempe- -■

ratures over a 24-day period in England exceeding by
y •

/
about 4°C the highest monthly mean in the 300-year record. -

•Very cold, wet summer in Russia and parts of Canada. .

Droughts between April and August in a targe number of tropical and subtropical areas including Sri Lanka, West Africa and northern Chile, followed by large rainfalt ex- ., cesses in-October. . ;

Similar large rainfall excesses during September and October . following the drought in northwestern Europe.

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) of extreme severity affecting Madagascar (January-March) and Mexico (October).

*_________ PROPOSAL .

FOR A . •

COUNCIL DECISION .

58.

. adopting a multiannual research programme for the European Economic Community in the field


of Climatology (indirect action, (1979-1983) ^

59.

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, -


Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community, and in .particular Article 235 thereof,

' Having regard to the proposal from the Commission,

. ' ’ . * .

Having regard to the opinion of the European Parliament i,

Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee (2), ' ( '

Whereas, pursuant to Article 2 of the Treaty, the Community has the task of promoting throughout the Community a harmonious development of economic activities, a continuous and balanced expansion and an accelerated raising of the standard of living ;

Whereas, in its resolution of 14 January 1974 on a first action programme of the European Communities in the field of science and technology (3), the Councit stated that the whole range of ; available ways and means should be used as appropriate, including indirect action ; -

Whereas man's economic and social structures are largely dependent . . on climate ; whereas especially such vital resources as water and food can be seriously impaired by possible adverse climatic conditions ; whereas man himself could contribute by his own activities, and especially by polluting the atmosphere, to climatic instability and ever, to drastic climatic changes; whereas it is therefore in the Community's interest to promote a better knowledge of the mechanism and behaviour of climate, as well'as of the possible impacts of climatic variability in view of a sound planning as far as European resources are concerned ;

- Whereas a Community research programme in the field of Climatology . is likely to contribute effectively to the achievement of the abovementioned objectives ; •

Whereas the Treaty does not provide the specific powers necessary , for this purpose ; .

O.J. N°

O.J. N°

O.J. N° C 7 of 29.1.1974


Whereas the Scientific and Technical Research Committee (CREST) has given its opinion concerning the ,'o-nsal from the Commission,

HAS DECIDED AS FOLLOWS: „ , ■- '

' Article 1 :

For a five-year period from 1 January 1979., the Community shall . carry out a research programme in the,field-af.Climatology as described in the Annex hereto. . .

Article 2 ' , -

Theupper limit of expenditure commitments necessary for the, -implementation of this programme is estimated at 8.000.000 European units of account,, the European unit of account being defined by ' / • the Financial Regulations applicable, and the t number of

staff is set . at three. , ; ^ ^

• * ^ ‘ , , ' , . ' , ' . •

60.

' , Article 3 '


The Commission shall be responsible for implementing the programme. It shall be assisted in this task by an Advisory Committee on Programme ’ Management, the terms of reference and composition of which shall be defined in accordance with the Council resolution of 18 July 1977 on advisory committees on research programme management i.

v : Article 4 >

During the third year the programme shall be reviewed ; this review may result in a revision of the programme in accordance with the appropriate procedures after the Advisory ’Committee on Programme Management has been consulted. The European \ Parliament shall be informed of the results.of that review.

. ■ Article 5 • '. . ' •' ;-•

The European Parliament shall be informed of the results achieved and the funds used. x ■ • ,

Article 6 r

In accordance with Article 228 of the Treaty, the Community may conclude agreements with other States involved in European

' Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research•(COST) with a view to extending the coordination which is the subject of this Decision to research undertaken in those States.

. . ■ . f ' ' • .

The Commission is hereby authorised to negotiate the agreements referred to in paragraph 1.

Article 7 .

The information resulting from the execution of the programme shall be disseminated in accordance with Council Regulation (EEC) N° 2380/74 of 17 September 1974 adopting provisions for the dissemination of information relating to research programmes for the European Economic Community (1)

Done at Brussels,

61.

For the Council


The President

+'

0.J

. N° L 255, 20.9.1$74, p. 1

. - ■ • - ANNEX - .

■ ’ / '' V - " . ' : ' r '

- A. RESEARCH AREAS .

I, “Understanding Climate" . '

1.1. Reconstruction of Past Climates .

. Exploration and analysis of : ,

a. Natural Records.

b. Observational and other Historical Records.

62.

1.2. Climate Modelling and Prediction


, a. Development of prediction methods based on a , system-analysis approach .

63.

b. Improvement of atmospheric circulation models


. c. Improvement of the simulation of the slowly, varying components of the climatic system.

II. “Man-Climate Interactions" . . -

_ i ..... r- - \ . . • ' •

- ' . • . • > '

64.

11.1. Climatic Variability and European Resources


a. Impacts on Land and Water Resources

b. Climatic Hazards Evaluation -

65.

c. Impacts on Energy Requirements/ Use and '


Production '

■ ■ . ♦ . • • , ' • , •

11.2. Man's Impacts on Climate . -

66.

a. Atmospheric chemical pollution/ with a special emphasis on carbon dioxide accumulation


b. Release of Energy. 7

67.

B. SPECIAL ACTIVITIES AND SERVICES


i. Establishment of an Interdisciplinary Group for the , • Study of Climatic Impacts , • v .

II. Inventory/ Coordination and enrichment of European Climatic Data Sets , .

Research work will'be carried out by way of contracts.

68.

FINANCIAL DATA


1. BUDGET CHAPTER : 3366 s

2. • HEADING OF THE BUDGET TITLE : Multi-annual R & D programme of

69.

the European Communities in the field of climatology (indirect action 1979-83)


' . . . ‘ / ‘ . ‘ ■ ’

70.

3. JURIDICAL BASIS : Article 235 of the EEC Treaty


Council Decision

71.

4.. DESCRIPTION, OBJECTIVES AND JUSTIFICATION OF ACTION


72.

4.1. Description Research programme on climatic processes and


variation, to be carried out by means of shared-cost contracts to be conducted with research institutes in the Member States in the following fields : .

73.

Topic 1 : Studies of climatic processes and reconstruction . of previous climatic conditions. -


Topic 2 ; Studies of the effects of climatic variation on .

certain resources, especially water resources, and on energy requirements. ,

• Topic 3 : Studies of the effects of certain human activities, . especially the pollution resulting therefrom, on the climate

74.

Topic 4 : Creation of an interdisciplinary group of experts of the European Community to study climatic impact. -


4.2. Objectives :

To establish a greater understanding of climatic processes and : solve the problems caused, for major resources, by climatic variations. To help eliminate the risks created by the human exploitation of the environment and by environmental pollution. ‘

4.3. Justification : . ,

f' i ■ " . 1 - •

, There is an urgent need for improved techniques of forecasting the potential effects of climatic variations, especially on water resources end on agricultural productivity. It is also important to evaluate the extent to which climatic change can be induced by human activities. , . ■' ' • • • ' ■

5. . TOTAL FINANCIAL INCIDENCE OF ACTION (in k'J..’


5.0. <■ '•> Incidence on expenditure' ■

75.

5.0.0. . Total cost during the term envisaged


^ v. * - on Community budget (. __ '■

t •• by national administrations v

76.

. - by other sectors at National level


* .,, Total

5.0.1* Multi annual schedule

. Commitment ' •


77.

i' ' ' -


0.000.D00


(. 7.030.900

l ~ ' ' -


78.

15.030.900


' ' ■' ,1979198019811982" 1983

A N .
staff - :87.100■ 160.700169.700180.200201.300■ ■ ■
Manag. .30.00032.10033.90036.000 '38.100: > .
Techn.' ■. , •* ,* . •' " ' • ■
Contracts _2.000.0002.932.5002.098.400- : ' - V
.' *■*' - 1
Total .2.117.1003.125.300 ■2.302.000216.200239.400 /;———,—<
Payment

" „ /• .., •

. t ’
1979• 1980
1981,1982 .1983 :1934,
Staff87.100160.700• 169.700
180.200201.300 -'
M.inag. * .30.00032.10033.900. 36.000 ’38.100v • -
Techn. •■ -/•' ’ • 1
Contracts600.0002.000.000 .2.078.7001.524.300609.400. 286.00o'. .

■ ‘ ' ’■ ^
Total ' ,717.1002.iga.soo2.282*3001.740.500848.800:*-■ ‘ '' --

286. 0K)0


' ••‘i .. •

Method of calculation x .

79.

a) Personnel expenditure


Needs were assessed on the basis of the officials required for the programme '

80.

1979


! 2 Category A officialCs)

■ ■

81.

Category B officialCs)


T Category C official(s) Apart from these posts the calculations take account of the parameters set for the purpose of drawing up the preliminary draft budget for the financial year 1979.

No increase in purchasing power has been provided for.

A change in the weighting applicable to remuneration was the only alteration introduced to take account of the general trend in prices within the Community.

b) Expenditure for administrative and technical operations

They cover travel, mission and meeting expenses as well as the cost of scientific and technical assistance whenever it proves necessary for the implementation of the programme.

c) Expenditure in respect of contracts ,

82.

Since the nature of the work and the qualifications of the contracting parties vary, it is impossible to introduce a standard method of calculation*


However, the Advisory Committee on Programme Management (ACPM) will always be consulted on the allocation of funds. .

d) Multiannual forecasts ,

The rates fixed for calculating estimates are : 1980-1,07 1981-1,13 1982-1,20 1983-1,26

83.

Implications in respect of revenue


Type of control to be applied ,

84.

Scientific controls : Management Committees


ACPM ’

85.

Officials appointed by DG XIX


Administrative, controls : . , : "

Budget implementation : Financial Control .

Regularity of .expenditure : Financial Control

. Contracts Division DGXII

86.

. /


% ■; '*

7. FUNDING ACTION . .

7.0. ; . !

7.1.

7.2.

7.3. ' Funds to be included in future (s) budget (s>

4

1

87.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PROGRAMME 10


88.

4.1. GENERAL REMARKS ' . 10


2

89.

4.2. RESEARCH AREAS 10


3

4.2.1. Research Area I : "Understanding Climate11 , lo

4

4.2.1.1. Objectives V 10

5

4.2.1.2. Research Themes under Research Area I 11

1.1. Reconstruction of Past Climates 11

1.2. Climate Modelling and Prediction 12

4.2.2. Research Area II : 'Man-Climate Interactions' 13

6

90.

4.2.2.1. Objectives 13


7

91.

4.2.2.2. Research Themes under Research Area II 13


8

92.

1. Climatic Variability and European Resources 13


- . II.2. Man's Impacts on Climate 15

93.

4.3. SPECIAL ACTIVITIES 1?


4.3.1. Objectives 17

. 4.3.2. Specific Instruments and Services 18

94.

. (a) A European Interdisciplinary Group 18


for the Study of Climatic Impacts

(b) Inventory, Coordination and Enrichment 18

of European Climatic Data Sets .

9

• We know that even relatively small changes might produce

' important effects ; we do not know the quant vivtive relationships linking climatic changes to the ' .

changes in the variables important to man’s > fa ar'd well-being.

10

95.

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast, Bracknell, UK


11

Overall Energy Balance Sheets (1963-1976). Statistic^ office the European Communities, Luxembourg, December 1977.

Inadvertent Climate Modifications, SMIC Report, MIT (1971>