(5) | Based on data provided by the Commission (Eurostat) in accordance with Article 14 of Regulation (EC) No 479/2009 following the notification by Bulgaria before 1 April 2012 and on the Commission services 2012 spring forecast, the following conclusions are justified:
— | The budgetary targets have been consistently overachieved in the period following the year of the excessive deficit. The general government deficit was reduced to 3,1 % of GDP in 2010 and decreased further to 2,1 % of GDP in 2011, against initially set targets of 3,8 % and 2,5 % respectively. The correction of the deficit has been driven mainly by strict control of expenditure growth, including through freezing the government sector wage bill and pensions, which led the expenditure-to-GDP ratio to fall by 5,5 percentage points between 2009 and 2011. The 2012 Convergence Programme projects the deficit to continue falling to 1,6 % of GDP in 2012 and 1,3 % of GDP in 2013. In the Commission services 2012 spring forecast the general government deficit is projected to improve to 1,9 % of GDP in 2012 and to 1,7 % of GDP in 2013, supported by a continued freeze in the government sector wage bill, as well as a cyclical improvement in revenues. |
— | The Commission services 2012 spring forecast projects a cyclically adjusted balance net of one-off and temporary measures of 0,7 % in 2012 and of 0,8 % of GDP in 2013, under a no-policy-change assumption. Meanwhile, in 2012 and 2013, the growth rate of government expenditure net of discretionary revenue measures is forecast to remain below the benchmark reference medium-term rate of potential GDP growth, as specified in Article 5(1) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (6). |
— | The Commission services 2012 spring forecast projects the general government gross debt to increase moderately from 16,3 % of GDP in 2011 to 18,5 % of GDP in 2013. This debt forecast does not include possible external debt issuance in 2012 to pre-fund the repayment of euro-denominated bonds of around 2 % of GDP in January 2013. Similarly, the latest convergence programme projects the debt ratio to increase to 18,4 % by 2013. |
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