Annexes to COM(2008)651 - Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) - Main contents
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This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.
| dossier | COM(2008)651 - Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for ... |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2008)651  |
| date | October 16, 2008 |
3.1.2. EU-15
The aggregate projections based on existing domestic policies and measures show that GHG emissions of the EU-15 will be 3.6% below base-year levels by 2010 (4.4% distance from the Kyoto target). When including the,
(1) government use of the Kyoto mechanisms which are expected to deliver an additional 3% emission reduction, and
(2) total removal due to Art. 3.3 and 3.4 activities in the EU-15 corresponding to a 1.3% reduction,
the EU-15 is projected to reduce its emissions by 8.0% by 2010, reaching the Kyoto target. Given, however, the existing uncertainties and the EU's ambitious reduction target of 20% by 2020, it is imperative that MS not only ensure the timely delivery of emissions reductions from existing policies and measures but also that they accelerate the development and full implementation of their planned policies and measures. Assuming that all these measures deliver as expected, the projected overall reduction of GHG emissions could be up to 11.3% compared to base year levels.
Moreover, it is estimated that the NAP decisions on allowance allocation for the 2nd trading period under the EU ETS would contribute an estimated 3.3% of the EU-15's Kyoto target which, as yet, has not been fully factored into all MS projections.
3.1.3. EU-12
Aggregate emissions from the other 12 MS are projected to increase after 2006 but will still be 28.4% below their base year levels by 2010. With additional measures, however, emissions are projected to be further reduced by 2%. Slovenia is the only MS out of the EU-12 that intends to invest in Kyoto mechanisms. Slovenia, Czech Republic and Poland intend to account for carbon sinks.
3.1.4. Candidate countries
In 2006, Croatia’s emissions were almost 31 MtCO2-eq., 14.4% below base year emissions. Croatia is projected to slightly exceed its Kyoto target taking into account existing measures and carbon sinks, but would meet and indeed overachieve the target with the effect of planned (additional) measures.
In 2006, Turkey’s emissions were 332 MtCO2-eq compared to 170 MtCO2-eq. in 1990, an increase of 95.1%. Turkey is an Annex I Party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but has no reduction commitments under Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. Turkey has not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Between 1990 and 2006, per capita GHG emissions have increased in both Turkey and Croatia. However, at 4.6 tonnes per year, the per capita emissions in Turkey are less than half of the average EU-27 per capita emissions. In both countries, the emission level per GDP has also declined, indicating a decoupling of economic growth and resource consumption.
Currently, there is no information available for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Figure 5: Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between GHG projections for 2010 and the respective 2010 targets based on ‘existing’ and ‘additional’ domestic policies and measures, the use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks, and in part the effect of the EU ETS.
EU-15
Sweden
United Kingdom
Germany
Portugal
France
Greece
Netherlands
Belgium
Finland
Ireland
Luxembourg
Austria
Italy
Spain
Denmark
Estonia
Latvia
Romania
Bulgaria
Poland
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovak
Slovenia
| 0.0% 0.1% | ||
| Q ,-^j | ||
| -4.2% -2.2%l ' -2.4% C -1.0% g -0.6% 1 -0.4%J -0.6% - -0.2% I | ||
| 0.0% 11 | ||
| —. I 5 1% ^^ 1.9% | ||
| ' 5.5% | I 15.1% | |
| -57.7% | ||
| - | ||
| l | ||
| -13.6% | ||
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Percentage points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) of respective emission targets
20%
30%
O Gap between 2010 projections (with the existing measures and including carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms) and Kyoto target ■ Gap between 2010 projections (including additional measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms) and Kyoto target
EN
12
EN
3.2. Implementation of the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
Across the EU-27, an assessment of Member States' policies and measures identified eight Common and Coordinated Policies and Measures (CCPMs) that are both widespread and are projected to deliver significant GHG emissions savings in the EU. These are the EU ETS Directive (estimated effect by the reporting MS: 123 MtCO2-eq.), in the energy supply sector the Renewables (RES-E) Directive (related to the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources), in the transport sector the biofuels Directive and EU-wide ACEA agreement with car manufacturers, in the energy demand sector the Directives on the energy performance of buildings, energy taxation and promotion of co-generation (combined heat and power), and finally the Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms.
In addition to these eight key policies and measures, a further five CCPMs were identified that are also predicted to deliver important savings across the EU (from 4 to 7 MtCO2-eq. per policy). These five policies are the Landfill Directive, the efficiency requirements for new hot-water boilers, the Directive on Integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC), the Directive on labelling of appliances and the Motor Challenge programme, aimed at improving the energy efficiency of industrial electric motors.
The top eight policies account for 86% of the total savings attributed to CCPMs in the EU-27. This highlights the importance of these key policies in helping MS to achieve their emission reduction commitments.
The 2007 and 2008 estimates are very similar. In 2007, 95% of all savings from CCPMs was derived from the top 13 policies, while in 2008 the figure was 94%.
Recent developments
The climate change and energy package was introduced in January 2008 and included:
(1) EU ETS: A legislative proposal6 to expand, stengthen and improve the functioning of the EU ETS post-2012.
(2) Effort Sharing: A legislative proposal7 for a framework for national commitments to reduce emissions which are outside the scope of the EU ETS.
(3) Renewables: A legislative proposal8 to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU’s final energy consumption to 20% by 2020, and of biofuels in transport to 10%.
(4) CCS: Policies9 to encourage early demonstration of capture and geological storage of carbon including a legislative proposal for a regulatory framework10.
Other important developments have included:
(5) Aviation: legislative proposal adopted by the European Parliament on 8 July 2008 integrating aviation into EU ETS. It is estimated that a total of 183 million tonnes of CO2 will be saved per year on the flights covered by the scheme equal to a 46% reduction by 2020 compared with business as usual.
(6) Fluorinated gases: adoption of a Regulation and Directive (July 2006) to limit emissions of fluorinated gases, including those from air-conditioning in cars. The
estimated effect of the Regulation and Directive by 2020 is around 40-50 MtCO2-eq. per annum with full benefits of phase out of HFC-134a in air-conditioning.
(7) CO2 and cars: Communication (February 2007) setting out strategy for reducing emissions and legislative proposal (December 2007) to set standards for CO2 emissions from cars.
(8) Transport fuels: legislative proposal (January 2007) to revise the fuel quality Directive which includes targets for reducing GHG emissions associated with the production of petrol and diesel.
(9) Energy Efficiency: Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (October 2006), which sets out 10 priority actions to realise up to 20% energy savings by 2020.
(10) Research: the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) 11 (November 2007) whose main goal is to accelerate the development and implementation of low carbon technologies, as these will play a vital role in reaching our energy and climate change targets.
3.3. Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)
In 2007, the total amount of verified emissions from EU ETS installations in the EU-27 was 2.050 billion tonnes of CO2, 0.8% higher than the 2.034 billion tonnes recorded in 2006. However, when adjusted for the entry and closure of installations since 2006, which led to a net addition of 581 installations to the system, the overall emissions increase last year was only 0.68%.
3.3.1. First trading period (2005 to 2007)
On average 10,675 installations participated in the first trading period. These installations received emission rights for 2,155 Mt CO2 per year and on average emitted 3%12 less (2,084 Mt CO2 per year). The share of the EU ETS in 2005 was about 41% of total EU-25 greenhouse gas emissions. Almost two thirds of all installations are classified as combustion installations13 and these are responsible for 72% of overall emissions. Verified emissions were higher than allocations in only six MS (Austria, Ireland, Italy, Slovenia, Spain and the United Kingdom).
3.3.2. Second trading period (2008 to 2012)
Following the assessment of national allocation plans, the EU-wide cap for 2008 to 2012 amounts to 2.08 billion allowances per year, 10.4% or 243 Mt CO2 lower than what was initially proposed in the national allocation plans submitted by the Member States to the Commission for approval. This implies a reduction compared to average emissions in 2005 to 2007 of 6%. This corresponds to an actual average reduction of 12.7% of the total allowances for 23 Member States, and the acceptance of NAPs without cuts for four MS (Denmark, France, Slovenia and the United Kingdom).
3.3.3. Use of JI and CDM by operators
As part of the second NAPs, a limit was established by each MS for the maximum use of project based credits by operators (JI and CDM). In total, up to 278 million CERs or ERUs may be used per year by ETS installations from all MS in the second trading period. This
corresponds to 13.4 % of the EU-wide cap for the second trading period. In practice it appears unlikely that the full limit will be exploited.
3.4. Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by government
Thirteen MS updated or confirmed information on their intended use of the Kyoto mechanisms in 2008 through a questionnaire under the EC monitoring mechanism decision. For the remaining MS previously provided information through the questionnaire on the use of Kyoto mechanisms as indicated in the second national allocation plant under the ETS Directive (2003/87/EC) was used (Table 12 in the SWD).
Ten MS of the EU-15 and Slovenia have decided to use the Kyoto mechanisms to reach their Kyoto targets. Together these EU-15 MS would acquire 126.5 Mt CO2-eq. per year for compliance under the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. This represents approximately 3 percentage points towards the EU-15 Kyoto target of -8 %.
These 11 MS together have decided to invest around € 2.95 billion to acquire units through JI, CDM or emissions trading. Austria, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain allocated the largest budgets (€ 531 million, € 400 million, € 505 million, € 354 million and € 384 million, respectively, for the five-year commitment period).
3.5. Projected use of carbon sinks
In addition to the policies and measures targeting various sources of GHG emissions, MS can make use of carbon sinks (see Table 13 in the SWD). In 2008, eleven MS submitted updated estimates while information for nine additional MS had been submitted in the previous years. Seven MS have never submitted the voluntary questionnaire.
The information provided so far indicates that the total net sequestration during the commitment period from afforestation and reforestation activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol will be about 23.9 MtCO2 per year; an additional sequestration of 0.4 million tonnes CO2 per year has been reported by Slovenia. In addition, the use of activities under Art.3.4 is projected to contribute 25.7 MtCO2 per year of the commitment period in the EU-15. These figures take the maximum allowance for forest management into account but do not include Spain due to the lack of detailed data. Together with the Spanish aggregate all activities under Art. 3.3 and 3.4 in the EU-15 MS are projected to reduce emissions by 57.5 million tonnes CO2 per year of the commitment period equivalent to almost 17% of the EU-15 reduction commitment of 341 Mt CO2 per year during the commitment period compared to base year emissions. Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia expect an additional reduction of 5.9 million tonnes CO2 per year during the commitment period.