Annexes to COM(2016)652 - European Development Fund (EDF): forecasts of commitments, payments and contributions from Member States for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020

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This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.

Agreement 1 and Article 21(2) of the Council Regulation (EU) 2015/323 2 on the financial regulation applicable to the 11th European Development Fund (hereinafter referred to as "11th EDF Financial Regulation"), the Commission presents in this document estimates of commitments, payments and contributions for the period 2016 to 2018, taking into account the forecasts of the European Investment Bank (EIB).

This document sets out the financial implementation of the EDFs (8th to 11th) for 2015 and the forecasts of implementation for 2016 until 2018. In addition, this document draws a non-binding estimation, for the EDF contributions, from the Member States, for the years 2019 and 2020.

Member States contribute funds directly to the European Investment Bank (EIB) for the instruments which it manages under the 9th, 10th, and 11th EDFs (the Investment Facility and interest-rate subsidies).

2. Introduction

The Commission and the EIB have updated their commitment and payment forecasts for 2016, 2017 and 2018 for each of the ACP countries 3 and the OCTs 4 . The payment forecasts in particular have been compiled with the aim of helping Member States to assess as accurately as possible the amounts they need to earmark in their national budgets while ensuring that sufficient financial resources are available for the EDF to avoid liquidity problems.

In accordance with Article 7 of the 11th EDF Internal Agreement 5 and Article 21(2) of the 11th EDF Financial Regulation 6 , the estimates provided in this document have been updated.

The graph below shows the general trend in gross commitments and payments since 1999 until 2015 and projections for the period 2016-2018 (Commission and EIB cumulated amounts).


Gross commitments and payments: trend 1999-2018 (EUR Million)



Note: Figures from implementation of the European Development Funds as of 31 December 2015 (commitments, payments and financial situation) and forecasts for 2016 and 2018.

3. Financial forecasts for 2016 - 2018

The following table provides an update of the commitments, the payments and of the contributions, based on the Commission's latest forecasts.

Forecasts 2016-2018 (*)201620172018
CommitmentsCommission5 3254 6634 550
EIB855880905
Total6 1805 5435 455
PaymentsCommission3 7523 9004 400
EIB450470500
Total4 2024 3704 900
ContributionsCommission3 4503 8504 550
EIB150150250**
Total3 6004 0004 800

* Gross amounts, i.e. no decommitments or recoveries/reflows have been deducted. This approach is in line with that used for the general budget of the Union.

** ref. EIB explanatory note for information of 17/11/2015, MD no: 151/15 ADD 1 ACP

4. Non-binding Estimation of contribution for 2019 - 2020

Forecasts 2019-2020 (*)20192020
ContributionsCommission4 5004 500
EIB300300
Total4 8004 800

* Art.21 (2) 11th EDF Financial Regulation (EU 2015/323): indicative, non-binding forecast based on a statistical approach for the expected annual amounts of contributions for the years n + 3 and n + 4.

5. Financial implementation forecasts for 2016, 2017 and 2018.

The updated forecasts are set out in attachments 1 to 3.

The estimates for 2016 commitments and payments that were indicated in the June 2016 Communication remain unchanged. This is further indication that the new forecasting tool currently in use delivers robust estimates.

In 2016 record EDF commitments and payments are expected. This would keep the 11th EDF on track for full commitment at the end of the implementation period and points to the capacity of the Commission to implement the EDF.

However, coming as it does after a strong payment performance in 2015, the expected record payment performance in 2016 will add further pressure upon an already tight treasury situation in 2016-2017, as shown in attachment 3 (with a negative balance at year end for the Commission).

Now that the 11th EDF has reached cruising speed, there is less volatility in long-term payment forecasts. It is therefore easier for the Commission to propose a smoother profile for Member States' contributions from 2018. This smoothing out of contributions ("lissage") is a key request from Member States.

The 2nd call for contribution of June 2017 is expected to be made up of a mix of 10th and 11th EDF contributions. This will result in the effective contribution key for that specific call differing from either 10th or 11th keys. The 2nd call in 2017 will also see the first contributions from Croatia to the EDF.

Attachments 1, 2 and 3 show respectively actual commitments, actual payments and the financial situation compared with previous forecasts for the periods 2016-2018.

Attachments 4 and 5 show respectively contributions for 2016 and 2017 per instalment and per Member State.

5.1.Attachment 1: forecasts for commitments 7 for 2016, 2017 and 2018 (EUR million)

201620172018
Oct 2015*June 2016*Oct 2016June 2016Oct 2016Oct 2016
Regions
East Africa810810
West Africa1 7761 776
Central Africa1 1391 139
Caribbean213213
Pacific2525
Southern Africa560560
Sub-total4 5254 525
Other
Peace Facility, Human rights545545
Water and Energy Facility100100
Trust Fund (**)00
Other (***)155155
Sub-total800800
Total European Commission4 6635 3255 3254 6634 6634 550
Investment facility770775775800800825
Interest rate subsidies (****)808080808080
Total EIB850855855880880905
TOTAL EC+EIB5 5136 1806 1805 5435 5435 455

* As per Communication from the Commission to the Council

** Emergency EU Trust Fund for stability and addressing root causes of illegal migration in Africa.
*** Includes support expenditures (e.g. joint institutions, ACP Secretariat), DG ECHO, other DG's and Agencies.
**** Including interest rate subsidies under previous EDFs

5.2.Attachment 2: forecasts for payments 8 for 2016, 2017 and 2018 (EUR million)

201620172018
Oct 2015*Jun 2016*Oct 2016Jun 2016Oct 2016Oct 2016
Regions
East Africa618618
West Africa918918
Central Africa513513
Caribbean176176
Pacific6363
Southern Africa442442
Sub-total2 7302 73000
Other
Peace Facility436436
Water and Energy Facility9595
Trust Fund (**)290290
Other (****)201201
Sub-total1 0221 02200
Total European Commission3 5503 7523 7523 9003 9004 400
Investment facility370370430410430450
Interest rate subsidies (****)404020504050
Total EIB410410450460470500
TOTAL EC+EIB3 9604 1624 2024 3604 3704 900

* As per Communication from the Commission to the Council

** EU emergency Trust Fund for stability and addressing root causes of illegal migration in Africa.
*** Includes support expenditures (e.g. joint institutions, ACP Secretariat), DG ECHO, other DG's and Agencies.
**** Including interest rate subsidies under previous EDFs

5.3.Attachment 3: Financial situation for 2016, forecasts for 2017 and 2018 and non-binding estimations for 2019 - 2020 (EUR million):

COM June 2016 1COM October 2016 1
CommissionEIB 6TOTALCommissionEIB 6TOTAL
Balance 31/12/2015 1508222730508222730
2016Member States Contributions for 2016:3.4501503.6003.4501503.600
1st instalment1.75001.7501.75001.750
2nd instalment1.0001001.1001.0001001.100
3rd instalment7005075070050750
Reflows 2260260209209
Contributions 2016 received in 201500
Contrib. & Adjust. 2016 received in 2015-307-307-307-307
Recoveries, interest and other incomes80808080
Total payments 3-3.752-410-4.162-3.752-450-4.202
Balance 31/12/2016 4-21222201-21131110
2017Member States Contributions for 2017:3.8501504.0003.8501504.000
1st instalment01.7001001.800
2nd instalment01.300501.350
3rd instalment08500850
Reflows 2300300300300
Contrib. & Adjust.00
Recoveries, interest and other incomes50505050
Total payments 3-3.900-460-4.360-3.900-470-4.370
Balance at 31/12/2017-21212191-2111190
2018Member States Contributions for 2018:4.5502504.8004.5502504.800
Reflows 2300300
Recoveries, interest and other8080
Total payments 3-4.400-500-4.900
Balance at 31/12/2018209161370
2019Member States Contributions for 2019 54.5003004.8004.5003004.800
2020Member States Contributions for 2020 54.5003004.800


1    Funds available for operations as per Communication from the Commission to the Council;
2    Net of EIB management fees;
3    Including interest rates subsidies under the previous EDFs;
4    Balances do not include: (i) Cofinancings received by 31.12.2015, (ii) Receipts in bank not yet allocated to a specific EDF line, (iii) Special fund for Democratic Republic of the Congo;
5    Art.21(2)(d) Financial Regulation: non-binding forecast based on a statistical approach for the expected annual contributions for the years n + 3 and n + 4;
6    Art.21(1), calls for contributions shall first use up the amounts laid down for previous EDFs, one after the other. Therefore calls under the 11th EDF to finance the IFE are further delayed.

7-8    The EDF treasury balance can never be negative. Any negative amounts in the table indicates a shortage of payment credits.
* EIB request of contributions for 2018: EIB explanatory note for information of 17/11/2015, MD no: 151/15 ADD 1 ACP

5.4.Attachment 4: Member States contributions for 2016 (EUR)

MEMBER STATESKey 10th EDF %1st instalment2nd instalment3rd instalmentTotal EIBTotal CommissionTotal 2016
paid topaid topaid topaid topaid topaid to
EIBCommissionEIBCommissionEIBCommission
10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF
AUSTRIA2.41042 175 0002 410 00024 100 0001 205 00016 870 0003 615 00083 145 00086 760 000
BELGIUM3.53061 775 0003 530 00035 300 0001 765 00024 710 0005 295 000121 785 000127 080 000
BULGARIA0.1402 450 000140 0001 400 00070 000980 000210 0004 830 0005 040 000
CYPRUS0.0901 575 00090 000900 00045 000630 000135 0003 105 0003 240 000
CZECH REPUBLIC0.5108 925 000510 0005 100 000255 0003 570 000765 00017 595 00018 360 000
DENMARK2.00035 000 0002 000 00020 000 0001 000 00014 000 0003 000 00069 000 00072 000 000
ESTONIA0.050875 00050 000500 00025 000350 00075 0001 725 0001 800 000
FINLAND1.47025 725 0001 470 00014 700 000735 00010 290 0002 205 00050 715 00052 920 000
FRANCE19.550342 125 00019 550 000195 500 0009 775 000136 850 00029 325 000674 475 000703 800 000
GERMANY20.500358 750 00020 500 000205 000 00010 250 000143 500 00030 750 000707 250 000738 000 000
GREECE1.47025 725 0001 470 00014 700 000735 00010 290 0002 205 00050 715 00052 920 000
HUNGARY0.5509 625 000550 0005 500 000275 0003 850 000825 00018 975 00019 800 000
IRELAND0.91015 925 000910 0009 100 000455 0006 370 0001 365 00031 395 00032 760 000
ITALY12.860225 050 00012 860 000128 600 0006 430 00090 020 00019 290 000443 670 000462 960 000
LATVIA0.0701 225 00070 000700 00035 000490 000105 0002 415 0002 520 000
LITHUANIA0.1202 100 000120 0001 200 00060 000840 000180 0004 140 0004 320 000
LUXEMBOURG0.2704 725 000270 0002 700 000135 0001 890 000405 0009 315 0009 720 000
MALTA0.030525 00030 000300 00015 000210 00045 0001 035 0001 080 000
NETHERLANDS4.85084 875 0004 850 00048 500 0002 425 00033 950 0007 275 000167 325 000174 600 000
POLAND1.30022 750 0001 300 00013 000 000650 0009 100 0001 950 00044 850 00046 800 000
PORTUGAL1.15020 125 0001 150 00011 500 000575 0008 050 0001 725 00039 675 00041 400 000
ROMANIA0.3706 475 000370 0003 700 000185 0002 590 000555 00012 765 00013 320 000
SLOVAKIA0.2103 675 000210 0002 100 000105 0001 470 000315 0007 245 0007 560 000
SLOVENIA0.1803 150 000180 0001 800 00090 0001 260 000270 0006 210 0006 480 000
SPAIN7.850137 375 0007 850 00078 500 0003 925 00054 950 00011 775 000270 825 000282 600 000
SWEDEN2.74047 950 0002 740 00027 400 0001 370 00019 180 0004 110 00094 530 00098 640 000
UNITED KINGDOM14.820259 350 00014 820 000148 200 0007 410 000103 740 00022 230 000511 290 000533 520 000
TOTAL EU-27100.0001 750 000 000100 000 0001 000 000 00050 000 000700 000 000150 000 0003 450 000 0003 600 000 000

5.5.Attachment 5: Member States contributions for 2017 (EUR)

MEMBER STATESKey 10th EDF %Key 11th EDF %1st instalment2nd instalment3rd instalmentTotal EIBTotal
Commission
Total 2017
EIBCommissionEIBCommissionCommissionEIBCommission
10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF10th EDF11th EDF10th EDF11th EDF
AUSTRIA2.412.397572 410 000.0040 970 000.001 205 000.001 765 782.0129 411 735.320.0020 379 345.003 615 000.0092 526 862.3396 141 862.33
BELGIUM3.533.249273 530 000.0060 010 000.001 765 000.002 586 394.3939 859 803.570.0027 618 795.005 295 000.00130 074 992.96135 369 992.96
BULGARIA0.140.21853140 000.002 380 000.0070 000.00102 576.552 680 775.340.001 857 505.00210 000.007 020 856.887 230 856.88
CYPRUS0.090.1116290 000.001 530 000.0045 000.0065 942.071 369 277.180.00948 770.00135 000.003 913 989.254 048 989.25
CZECH REPUBLIC0.510.79745510 000.008 670 000.00255 000.00373 671.719 782 566.650.006 778 325.00765 000.0025 604 563.3726 369 563.37
DENMARK2.001.980452 000 000.0034 000 000.001 000 000.001 465 379.2624 294 794.820.0016 833 825.003 000 000.0076 593 999.0879 593 999.08
ESTONIA0.050.0863550 000.00850 000.0025 000.0036 634.481 059 282.250.00733 975.0075 000.002 679 891.732 754 891.73
FINLAND1.471.509091 470 000.0024 990 000.00735 000.001 077 053.7618 512 475.410.0012 827 265.002 205 000.0057 406 794.1659 611 794.16
FRANCE19.5517.8126919 550 000.00332 350 000.009 775 000.0014 324 082.27218 513 796.750.00151 407 865.0029 325 000.00716 595 744.02745 920 744.02
GERMANY20.5020.5798020 500 000.00348 500 000.0010 250 000.0015 020 137.42252 458 793.950.00174 928 300.0030 750 000.00790 907 231.37821 657 231.37
GREECE1.471.507351 470 000.0024 990 000.00735 000.001 077 053.7618 491 130.290.0012 812 475.002 205 000.0057 370 659.0459 575 659.04
HUNGARY0.550.61456550 000.009 350 000.00275 000.00402 979.307 538 998.260.005 223 760.00825 000.0022 515 737.5623 340 737.56
IRELAND0.910.94006910 000.0015 470 000.00455 000.00666 747.5611 532 007.790.007 990 510.001 365 000.0035 659 265.3537 024 265.35
ITALY12.8612.5300912 860 000.00218 620 000.006 430 000.009 422 388.64153 710 502.990.00106 505 765.0019 290 000.00488 258 656.64507 548 656.64
LATVIA0.070.1161270 000.001 190 000.0035 000.0051 288.271 424 480.080.00987 020.00105 000.003 652 788.353 757 788.35
LITHUANIA0.120.18077120 000.002 040 000.0060 000.0087 922.762 217 561.700.001 536 545.00180 000.005 882 029.456 062 029.45
LUXEMBOURG0.270.25509270 000.004 590 000.00135 000.00197 826.203 129 268.200.002 168 265.00405 000.0010 085 359.4010 490 359.40
MALTA0.030.0380130 000.00510 000.0015 000.0021 980.69466 280.470.00323 085.0045 000.001 321 346.161 366 346.16
NETHERLANDS4.854.776784 850 000.0082 450 000.002 425 000.003 553 544.7158 598 242.830.0040 602 630.007 275 000.00185 204 417.53192 479 417.53
POLAND1.302.007341 300 000.0022 100 000.00650 000.00952 496.5224 624 662.800.0017 062 390.001 950 000.0064 739 549.3266 689 549.32
PORTUGAL1.151.196791 150 000.0019 550 000.00575 000.00842 593.0714 681 394.380.0010 172 715.001 725 000.0045 246 702.4546 971 702.45
ROMANIA0.370.71815370 000.006 290 000.00185 000.00271 095.168 809 768.940.006 104 275.00555 000.0021 475 139.1122 030 139.11
SLOVAKIA0.210.37616210 000.003 570 000.00105 000.00153 864.824 614 471.470.003 197 360.00315 000.0011 535 696.2911 850 696.29
SLOVENIA0.180.22452180 000.003 060 000.0090 000.00131 884.132 754 256.520.001 908 420.00270 000.007 854 560.668 124 560.66
SPAIN7.857.932487 850 000.00133 450 000.003 925 000.005 751 613.6097 310 194.160.0067 426 080.0011 775 000.00303 937 887.76315 712 887.76
SWEDEN2.742.939112 740 000.0046 580 000.001 370 000.002 007 569.5936 054 974.580.0024 982 435.004 110 000.00109 624 979.17113 734 979.17
UNITED KINGDOM14.8214.6786214 820 000.00251 940 000.007 410 000.0010 858 460.32180 067 187.340.00124 768 270.0022 230 000.00567 633 917.66589 863 917.66
Croatia0.000.225180.000.000.000.002 762 352.950.001 914 030.000.004 676 382.954 676 382.95
TOTAL EU-28100.00100.00100 000 000.001 700 000 000.0050 000 000.0073 268 963.001 226 731 037.000.00850 000 000.00150 000 000.003 850 000 000.004 000 000 000.00

5.6.Attachment 6: Member States contributions for 2017-2020 (EUR)

MEMBER STATESKey 10thKey 11th2017201820192020
EDF %EDF %COM 10thCOM 11thEIB 10thCOM 11thEIB 10thCOM 11thEIB 10thCOM 11thEIB 10th
AUSTRIA2.412.3975742 735 78249 791 0803 615 000109 089 4356 025 000107 890 6507 230 000107 890 6507 230 000
BELGIUM3.533.2492762 596 39467 478 5995 295 000147 841 7858 825 000146 217 15010 590 000146 217 15010 590 000
BULGARIA0.140.218532 482 5774 538 280210 0009 943 115350 0009 833 850420 0009 833 850420 000
CYPRUS0.090.111621 595 9422 318 047135 0005 078 710225 0005 022 900270 0005 022 900270 000
CZECH REPUBLIC0.510.797459 043 67216 560 892765 00036 283 9751 275 00035 885 2501 530 00035 885 2501 530 000
DENMARK2.001.9804535 465 37941 128 6203 000 00090 110 4755 000 00089 120 2506 000 00089 120 2506 000 000
ESTONIA0.050.08635886 6341 793 25775 0003 928 925125 0003 885 750150 0003 885 750150 000
FINLAND1.471.5090926 067 05431 339 7402 205 00068 663 5953 675 00067 909 0504 410 00067 909 0504 410 000
FRANCE19.5517.81269346 674 082369 921 66229 325 000810 477 39548 875 000801 571 05058 650 000801 571 05058 650 000
GERMANY20.5020.57980363 520 137427 387 09430 750 000936 380 90051 250 000926 091 00061 500 000926 091 00061 500 000
GREECE1.471.5073526 067 05431 303 6052 205 00068 584 4253 675 00067 830 7504 410 00067 830 7504 410 000
HUNGARY0.550.614569 752 97912 762 758825 00027 962 4801 375 00027 655 2001 650 00027 655 2001 650 000
IRELAND0.910.9400616 136 74819 522 5181 365 00042 772 7302 275 00042 302 7002 730 00042 302 7002 730 000
ITALY12.8612.53009228 042 389260 216 26819 290 000570 119 09532 150 000563 854 05038 580 000563 854 05038 580 000
LATVIA0.070.116121 241 2882 411 500105 0005 283 460175 0005 225 400210 0005 225 400210 000
LITHUANIA0.120.180772 127 9233 754 107180 0008 225 035300 0008 134 650360 0008 134 650360 000
LUXEMBOURG0.270.255094 787 8265 297 533405 00011 606 595675 00011 479 050810 00011 479 050810 000
MALTA0.030.03801531 981789 36545 0001 729 45575 0001 710 45090 0001 710 45090 000
NETHERLANDS4.854.7767886 003 54599 200 8737 275 000217 343 49012 125 000214 955 10014 550 000214 955 10014 550 000
POLAND1.302.0073423 052 49741 687 0531 950 00091 333 9703 250 00090 330 3003 900 00090 330 3003 900 000
PORTUGAL1.151.1967920 392 59324 854 1091 725 00054 453 9452 875 00053 855 5503 450 00053 855 5503 450 000
ROMANIA0.370.718156 561 09514 914 044555 00032 675 825925 00032 316 7501 110 00032 316 7501 110 000
SLOVAKIA0.210.376163 723 8657 811 831315 00017 115 280525 00016 927 200630 00016 927 200630 000
SLOVENIA0.180.224523 191 8844 662 677270 00010 215 660450 00010 103 400540 00010 103 400540 000
SPAIN7.857.93248139 201 614164 736 27411 775 000360 927 84019 625 000356 961 60023 550 000356 961 60023 550 000
SWEDEN2.742.9391148 587 57061 037 4104 110 000133 729 5056 850 000132 259 9508 220 000132 259 9508 220 000
UNITED KINGDOM14.8214.67862262 798 460304 835 45722 230 000667 877 21037 050 000660 537 90044 460 000660 537 90044 460 000
CROATIA0.000.2251804 676 383010 245 690010 133 100010 133 1000
TOTAL EU-28100.00100.001 773 268 9632 076 731 037150 000 0004 550 000 000250 000 0004 500 000 000300 000 0004 500 000 000300 000 000
4 000 000 0004 800 000 0004 800 000 0004 800 000 000


(1) Internal Agreement between the Representatives of the Governments of the Member States of the European Union, meeting within the Council, on the financing of European Union aid under the multiannual financial framework for the period 2014 to 2020, in accordance with the ACP-EU Partnership Agreement, and on the allocation of financial assistance for the Overseas Countries and Territories to which Part Four of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union applies (OJ L 210, 06.08.2013, p. 1).
(2) OJ L 58, 3.3.2015, p. 17–38
(3) African, Caribbean and Pacific States.
(4) Overseas Countries and Territories.
(5) OJ L 210, 06.08.2013.
(6) OJ L 58, 03.03.2015, Council Regulation (EU) 2015/323 of 2 March 2015 on the Financial Regulation applicable to the 11th European Development Fund.
(7) Gross commitments, i.e. without de-commitments being deducted.
(8) Gross payments, i.e. without recoveries being deducted.