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SUBJECT AMBASSADOR HARTOG LEVIN: DUTCH BACK ON TRACK

DATE 2011-01-11 07:38:00

CLASSIFICATION SECRET

ORIGIN Embassy The Hague

TEXT

• 1. 

  (S) SUMMARY: Despite an unstable political climate and lack of popular support

our efforts in supporting vice-PM Verhagen’s search for a future Dutch mission in

Afghanistan have paid off. The Dutch now expect to be rewarded. END SUMMARY.

• 2. 

  (C) NEW POLITICS The Dutch are back where they left of almost a year ago when

the government collapsed over a longer military stay in the Afghan province of

Uruzgan.

The new minority government of Christian Democrat CDA and liberal VVD in power

since October is headed by PM Rutte (VVD) and is naturally inclined to work close

with the U.S. They have told us privately and also take pride in displaying it

publicly. A clear illustration is the decision to send a police training mission

to Afghanistan where polls show 70 percent of the population opposed.

Unfortunately, the outward-looking, transatlantic orientation of the Rutte Cabinet

is offset domestically by strong strains of Euro-centralism and Dutch-provincialism.

We could have been in for a lot worse had the Labor Party (PvdA) won the elections.

Fortunately their strategic collapse of the former government over Uruzgan backfired

and they are now bewildered in opposition. Party leader Cohen is inept for

modern day politics. Labor opposes the mission but they will change heart instantly

when they get government responsibility or when the mission is watered

down superficially.

• 3. 

  (S) VERHAGEN CAME THROUGH. Though facing a record loss in the elections, shrewd

Christian Democrat leader Verhagen (FM in the last government) managed to get into

government as promised. It paid off that we worked on support for future Afghan

deployment options that met Verhagen’s goal of a ‘significant Dutch contribution

to the NATO mission’. Rutte seems fine with everything. He surrendered his party’s

principles to become the first liberal PM since 1918.

• 4. 

  THE WILDERS FACTOR Golden-pompadoured, maverick parliamentarian Geert Wilders,

anti-Islam, nationalist Freedom Party is now the country’s third. Wilders backs

the minority government in return for policies that cut immigration.

Though tough on Islam (Wilders portrays it as an ideology) and Islamic terrorism;

he condemned the Afghan police mission calling it ‘a bad idea’ and stated that ‘not

one man should go on a mission wherever

• 5. 

  (U) WICKED WILDERS While Wilders is a strong supporter of Israel, he is no friend

of the U.S.: he opposes Dutch military involvement in Afghanistan and participation

in the Joint Strike Fighter project; and most troubling, he forments fear and hatred

of immigrants. However, he should not be an obstacle to the new Afghan mission. The

‘gedoogakkoord’-deal he sealed with CDA and VVD gives the government enough room to

manoeuvre. Wilders keeps VVD and CDA hostage on most issues but so far the coalition

has astonishingly gone the extra mile to further U.S. interests.

• 6. 

  (S). SUPPORTERS The new FM Rosenthal (VVD) is an even more staunch supporter of our

interests than former FM Verhagen (I invited both to my residence last month for a

holiday reception). A study by government council WRR advised to center Dutch foreign

policy on Europe, but Rosenthal gently brushed it aside and emphasized the importance

of our trans-Atlantic relationship. Remarkable since a co-author of the study was his

secretary Knapen.

Defense minister Hillen tried to rally support for a new Afghanistan mission saying

that doing otherwise would be ‘embarrassing’. Hillen has expressed public grief at

the rising costs of the Joint Strike Fighter project. Statements to be regarded as lip

service to parliament. Luckily the military establishment and Hillen’s party CDA have

long been devoted supporters of the project. Their preference for U.S. equipment, even

when alternative European suppliers exist, is remarkable.

• 7. 

  (S) OLD FRIENDS We should treasure the friendship with the current government. The

VVD is a traditional supporter of the US. Remember that in the past particularly CDA

has gone all out to support and protect our interests. In 2009, the Cabinet almost fell

over a dispute over whether to purchase the Joint Strike Fighter test aircraft (reftel

E). In the fall of 2009, the governing coalition parties split over a parliamentary

resolution asking the Cabinet to pull troops out of Uruzgan in 2010 (reftel D).

And in January last year coalition members bitterly disputed the results of the ‘Davids

Committee Report’ on the DUTCH government’s decision in 2002-2003 to give political

support to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq (reftel B).

Early and active consultations are the key to harnessing Dutch energies in enhanced

pursuit of U.S. interests.

• 8. 

  (U) WATCH OUR MOUTH In order to obtain parliamentary support, Rutte framed the Afghan

mission as a police training mission with no military character. It is crucial to

support this perspective actively.

Rutte’s proposal is a cunning answer to a parliamentary resolution by liberal opposition

party D66 and the liberal-left wing Green Party (GroenLinks) that called upon the

government to look into a possible police mission in Afghanistan. This was in the wake

of the collapse of the Balkenende Cabinet when both parties were eager to demonstrate

they were fit for government. Since PvdA and Wilders are against the mission, support

of these two parties (and former government party ChristenUnie) is crucial for a parliamentary

majority.

• 9. 

  (S) REWARD We should appreciate the political risk being taken by Rutte and Verhagen

and reward them accordingly. They seek an invitation at the coming G-20 meeting in

Cannes. It has not gone down well with the Dutch leadership that they were not invited

to the last summit in Seoul. An invitation will make it more likely for the PM to deliver

help with Guantanamo detainees.

• 10. 

  (S) CONCLUSION With the EU divided and its direction uncertain, the Dutch serve as

a vital transatlantic anchor in Europe. The Dutch are back where they left off almost

a year ago and look committed to resume their responsible role on the global stage. In

pursuit of U.S. interests and leadership, we should build upon our successes to date

to take the Dutch to the ‘next level’.

HARTOG LEVIN

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