Updated convergence programme of Sweden, 2006-2009 - Main contents

EN

Official Journal of the European Union

C 72/17

On 27 February 2007 the Council examined the updated convergence programme of Sweden, which covers the period 2006 to 2009.

The macroeconomic scenario underlying the programme envisages that real GDP growth will slow from 4,0 % in 2006 to 3,0 % on average over the rest of the programme period, although it will remain at close to potential. Assessed against currently available information, this scenario appears to be based on plausible growth assumptions, with growth in 2006 having possibly been even higher. The programme's projections for inflation also appear realistic.

For 2006, the general government surplus is estimated at 2,8 % of GDP in the Commission services' autumn 2006 forecast, against a projected outturn of 0,9 % in the previous update of the convergence programme; the difference mainly reflects a base effect from the much higher-than-expected surplus in 2005. On the basis of available cash data it appears that, due both to lower primary expenditure and higher tax revenues, the 2006 surplus is likely to have been higher than the Commission services' forecast.

The updated programme confirms that a budget surplus of 2 % of GDP on average over the cycle remains the key guiding fiscal rule, supported by multi-annual expenditure ceilings. In the spring 2007 Fiscal Policy Bill, the Government will re-evaluate the present target for the general government surplus to take into account Eurostat's decision on the classification of funded second-pillar pension schemes. (2) After the expiry of the transition period for implementing this decision (spring 2007), the surplus will be lower by approximately 1 % of GDP each year and the gross debt-to-GDP ratio will be revised upward by about 0,5 % of GDP. The budgetary strategy presented in the update foresees a decline in the surplus in 2007 (from 3,0 % of GDP in 2006 to 2,4 %) and thereafter projects a progressive recovery (to 3,1 % in 2009); the primary surplus follows a similar path. Both expenditure- and revenue-to-GDP ratios are on a gradually declining trend throughout the programme period. The strategy is somewhat backloaded, with significant tax cuts in 2007 being only partially financed. Compared with the previous update, the projected path for the surplus (an initial decline followed by gradual recovery) is similar, but with higher net lending positions throughout the programme period.

The structural surplus (i.e. the cyclically-adjusted surplus net of one-off and other temporary measures), calculated according to the commonly-agreed methodology, is projected to remain above 2 % of GDP throughout the programme period, referring to the need to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances. As in the previous update of the convergence programme, the medium-term objective (MTO) for the budgetary position presented in the programme corresponds to the above-mentioned objective of a budgetary surplus of 2 % of GDP on average over the business cycle (i.e. in structural terms), which the programme plans to maintain throughout the programme period. As the MTO is significantly more demanding than the minimum benchmark (estimated at a deficit of around 1 % of...