COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Evaluation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change - Main contents
| Document date | 14-11-2018 |
|---|---|
| Publication date | 16-11-2018 |
| Reference | 14328/18 ADD 2 |
| From | Secretary-General of the European Commission, signed by Mr Jordi AYET PUIGARNAU, Director |
| External link | original article |
| Original document in PDF |  |
Council of the European Union
Brussels, 14 November 2018 (OR. en)
14328/18 ADD 2
CLIMA 223 ENV 770 ENER 384 IND 350 COMPET 783 MI 849 ECOFIN 1056 TRANS 550 AGRI 557
COVER NOTE
From: Secretary-General of the European Commission, signed by Mr Jordi AYET PUIGARNAU, Director
date of receipt: 12 November 2018
To: Mr Jeppe TRANHOLM-MIKKELSEN, Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union
No. Cion doc.: SWD(2018) 461 final
Subject: COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Evaluation of the EU
Strategy on adaptation to climate change Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change
Delegations will find attached document SWD(2018) 461 final.
Encl.: SWD(2018) 461 final
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Brussels, 12.11.2018 SWD(2018) 461 final
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Evaluation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change
Accompanying the document
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change
{COM(2018) 738 final i} - {SEC(2018) 472 final} - {SWD(2018) 460 final}
Table of contents
-
1.INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 5
Purpose and scope ....................................................................................................... 5
-
2.BACKGROUND TO THE INTERVENTION ..................................................................................... 5
Description of the intervention and its objectives ....................................................... 5
Need for action .................................................................................................. 5
Intervention logic ............................................................................................... 6
-
3.THE STRATEGY, EXTERNAL POLICIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
FOR ADAPTATION ............................................................................................................................ 8
Integration of adaptation in external policies .............................................................. 8
Development cooperation .................................................................................. 9
Foreign and security policy (including migration) ............................................ 9
Disaster risk reduction, including emergency response .................................. 10
The international context and the EU adaptation strategy ......................................... 11
-
4.BASELINE / IMPLEMENTATION / STATE OF PLAY .................................................................. 12
Objective 1: Promoting action by Member States ..................................................... 12
Action 1 Member State strategies .................................................................... 12
Action 2 LIFE .................................................................................................. 14
Action 3 Covenant of Mayors ......................................................................... 16
Objective 2: Better informed decision-making ......................................................... 17
Action 4 Knowledge gaps ............................................................................... 17
Action 5 Climate-ADAPT ............................................................................... 18
Objective 3: Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors ................................... 19
Action 6 ESIF / CAP / CFP, including general mainstreaming ...................... 19
Action 7 Infrastructure .................................................................................... 22
Action 8 Insurance and finance ....................................................................... 24
-
5.METHOD ............................................................................................................................................ 27
Methods for gathering evidence ...................................................................... 27
Evaluation method ........................................................................................... 28
Limitations and robustness of the findings ...................................................... 28
-
6.ANALYSIS AND ANSWERS TO THE EVALUATION QUESTIONS .......................................... 29
6.1. Relevance ........................................................................................................ 29
6.1.1. To what extent do the objectives and actions of the Strategy (still) respond to needs within the EU and at international level? .................................................................................................. 29
6.1.2. How relevant is the Strategy for the different stakeholders at local, regional, national and supra-national level? ............................ 32
6.2. Effectiveness .................................................................................................... 33
6.2.1. To what extent have the objectives been achieved during the period 2013-2018? ............................................................................. 33
6.2.2. To what extent has each of the eight actions of the Strategy contributed to these achievements? ................................................... 35
6.2.3. What drivers and barriers (expected or unexpected) contributed to or stood in the way of implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy and how did they affect it? ......................... 43
6.2.4. What effects has the Strategy produced so far for different stakeholders, e.g. according to socio-economic background and vulnerability? .............................................................................. 52
6.3. Efficiency ........................................................................................................ 53
6.3.1. How adequate were the resources for the overall implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy and how proportionate were those resources across its eight actions? ............ 53
6.3.2. How do the different stakeholders view the monitoring of the implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy? Which aspects are perceived as an unnecessary burden, if any, and to what extent? ....................................................................................... 54
6.4. Coherence ........................................................................................................ 56
6.4.1. How well does the Adaptation Strategy fit together with other relevant EU legislation and policies, or similar initiatives at international, national or regional level? Are there any gaps or inconsistencies between policies? Are there components to be further developed or added to increase coherence of actions? .......... 56
6.5. EU added value ................................................................................................ 58
6.5.1. What is the added value of addressing climate adaptation at EU level, in addition to the vertical and horizontal cooperation at national level? ............................................................ 58
-
7.CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................. 61
ANNEX I PROCEDURAL INFORMATION ......................................................................................... 64
ANNEX II STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION .................................................................... 73
-
1.Objectives of the consultation ......................................................................... 73
-
2.Consultation activities and methodology ........................................................ 73
2.1. Activities ............................................................................................ 73
2.2. Stakeholder groups participating ....................................................... 74
2.3. Methodology ...................................................................................... 76
-
3.Results ............................................................................................................. 77
3.1. Targeted Stakeholder Survey ........................................................................... 77 3.2. Stakeholder interviews ..................................................................................... 78
3.3. Open Public Consultation ............................................................................... 79
3.4. Stakeholder Workshops ................................................................................... 81
-
4.Identified campaigns and ad-hoc contributions ............................................... 81
-
5.Feedback from the roadmap ............................................................................ 81
ANNEX III ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................... 82
ANNEX IV LIST OF SWDS SUPPORTING THE STRATEGY COMMUNICATION
IN 2013 88
ANNEX V INTERVENTION LOGIC OF THE EU’S ADAPTATION STRATEGY
(RECONSTRUCTED) ........................................................................................................................ 89
ANNEX VI OPERATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
IN THE 2013 IMPACT ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................ 91
ANNEX VII INPUTS, ACTIVITIES AND OUTPUTS RELATED TO THE 8
ACTIONS OF THE STRATEGY ....................................................................................................... 93
ANNEX VIII COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION ON THE INITIATIVES
UNDER THE STRATEGY ................................................................................................................ 97
-
1.LIFE ................................................................................................... 97
-
2.Covenant of Mayors .......................................................................... 98
-
3.Monitoring and evaluation on adaptation action at EU and Member State level .......................................................................... 102
-
-
4.Bridging the knowledge gaps .......................................................... 104
-
5.Climate-ADAPT .............................................................................. 109
-
6.Key policy initiatives where adaptation was mainstreamed ............ 110
-
7.Carbon Disclosure Project survey results on companies and climate risks ..................................................................................... 114
-
-
8.EU funds for climate resilience ....................................................... 115
-
9.Adaptation-related work in the European Standardisation Organisations ................................................................................... 119
-
-
10.Insurance and financial services ...................................................... 120
-
11.Summary of costs related to the Strategy ........................................ 123
-
12.Coherence with other EU policies ................................................... 125
-
13.Coherence with international policies ............................................. 126
ANNEX IX HORIZONTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE ADAPTATION
PREPAREDNESS COUNTRY FICHES .......................................................................................... 128
ANNEX X EU ADAPTATION PREPAREDNESS SCOREBOARD INDICATOR
LIST AND METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 155
ANNEX XI LIST OF EU POLICY INITIATIVES WHERE ADAPTATION IS
MAINSTREAMED ........................................................................................................................... 171
Table XI-1. Initiatives where climate adaptation is mainstreamed into EU
policy (in force), including updates ............................................................... 171
Table XI-2. COM legislative proposals currently with European Parliament
and Council .................................................................................................... 201
ANNEX XII ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF THE EVIDENCE GATHERED
IN THE EVALUATION SUPPORT STUDY .................................................................................. 204
ANNEX XIII ECONOMIC COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................. 206
ANNEX XIV CASE STUDIES ................................................................................................... 210
Case Study 1 Fire preparedness and the impact of climate change ....... 211
Case Study 2 Spillover effects from climate change impacts
occurring outside the EU ............................................................................... 214
Case Study 3 The Danube macro-regional strategy and its
contribution to action at Member State level ................................................ 217
Case Study 4 Adaptation of infrastructure in the energy sector ............ 221 1. I NTRODUCTION
Purpose and scope
This document sets out the results of the evaluation of the 2013 EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (the Strategy). 1 The Strategy indicates that in 2017, the European Commission had to report to the European Parliament and the Council on the state of its implementation and propose its review, if needed. This evaluation intends to inform future work on the Strategy on the progress made, and to serve as background to the Report it accompanies.
It assesses whether the Strategy is fit for purpose, based on its performance up-to-date, to deliver on its 3 objectives and 8 actions in different policy sectors at local, national and transnational level. In accordance with the Better Regulation Guidelines 2 , the following evaluation criteria are used: relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value.
It covers the period 2013 to mid-2018 3 and all EU Member States. The document is largely based on an external evaluation carried out by consultants 4 , complemented by internal assessments, recent evaluations (e.g. of the LIFE 5 6 and Covenant of Mayors programmes and of the Climate-ADAPT platform 7 ), and a broad consultation process
described in Annex II.
The evaluation focuses on the direct results of the Strategy (e.g. the extent to which adaptation has been mainstreamed into EU financing of projects) rather than on the activities triggered by those results (for instance the outputs of the financed projects).
-
2.B ACKGROUND TO THE INTERVENTION
Description of the intervention and its objectives
Need for action
In Europe, land temperatures in 2007-2016 were around 1.6°C warmer than in preindustrial times. Particularly high warming has been observed since 1960 over the Iberian
1 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, COM(2013) 216 final i. The Strategy Communication was accompanied by a series of thematic SWDs, listed in Annex IV.
2 Commission Staff Working Document: Better Regulation Guidelines, SWD(2017) 350 final.
3 The evaluation roadmap defined the period to be evaluated as 2013 to December 2016. Considering the large amount of recent and highly relevant evidence that became available after December 2016, in this document the evaluated period is extended to mid-2018.
4 Ricardo, IEEP, Trinomics, and Alterra. Study to support the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy, Ricardo/ED62885 Final Report, Study for the European Commission, 2018.
5 LIFE (L'Instrument Financier pour l'Environnement) evaluation: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/publications/lifepublications/evaluation/index.htm
6 Covenant of Mayors in figures: 8-year assessment, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2017.
Peninsula, in mountain areas across central and northeastern Europe and over southern Scandinavia. The Pyrenees region is already 1.5ºC hotter than in 1960. Winter temperatures have increased the most in northern Europe, while higher summer
temperatures have affected southern Europe 8 . In addition, there has already been a
substantial increase in climate-related extreme events in recent years: the number of heatwaves, droughts, storms, wildfires has doubled, the number of floods has quadrupled since 1980. Climate change makes such events more likely. 9 There are also slower onsetting impacts like coastal erosion caused by sea level rise, or drought caused by changes to precipitation patterns. 10 Areas such as the EU Outermost Regions are particularly exposed to climate-related extreme events (e.g. cyclones, hurricanes, tropical tempests) and vulnerable to sea-level rise. Climate change impacts in third countries can also have spillover effects on Europe, for example by affecting trade routes and patterns and triggering climate-induced migration.
Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. It seeks to moderate or avoid harm and to exploit beneficial opportunities. Well planned, early adaptation action saves lives, livelihoods, biodiversity and money later. It focuses on building response capacity, prevention and on limiting the damage as it occurs, rather
than on dealing with consequences (disaster relief). 11
At the time of the formulation of the Strategy, the economic, environmental and social costs of not adapting to climate change were estimated to range from EUR 100 billion a
year in 2020 to EUR 250 billion a year in 2050 for the EU as a whole. 12 Recent studies
confirm that the frequency and economic costs of extreme events are continuing to rise for specific sectors. 13
Intervention logic
The general objective of the Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe by enhancing the preparedness and capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change at local, regional, national and EU levels, developing a coherent approach and improving coordination.
In order to achieve this, it set out the following three specific objectives:
Objective 1 – Promoting action by Member States: to promote adaptation action at sub-EU level, and support and facilitate exchange and coordination, including through cross-border measures.
8 'Global and European Temperature', European Environment Agency, 2018.
9 'Extreme weather events in Europe - Preparing for climate change adaptation: an update on EASAC’s
2013 study', European Academies’ Science Advisory Council, 2018. 10 Adverse effects of climate change include extreme weather events (heavy precipitation, strong wind, or
heatwaves), forest fires, floods, water scarcity, sea-level-rise, biodiversity change and premature deaths due to heatwaves and increases in vector-borne diseases (e.g. from ticks and mosquitos) and food and
water-borne diseases (e.g. from bacteria, viruses, parasites). 11 Examples of adaptation measures and tools include: using scarce water resources more efficiently;
adapting building codes to future climate conditions and extreme weather events; building flood defences and introducing natural water retention measures; developing drought-tolerant crops; choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires; setting aside land corridors to help
species migrate, carrying out vulnerability assessment or using insurance policy. 12 'Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012, EEA Report No 12/2012', European
Environment Agency, 2012. 13 E.g. European Academies’ Science Advisory Council, ibid. More information in Annex XIII.
Objective 2 - Better informed decision making: to further the understanding of adaptation, to improve and widen the knowledge base where knowledge gaps have been identified and to enhance dissemination of adaptation-related information.
Objective 3 - Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors: to develop initiatives to consistently and comprehensively integrate climate change adaptation considerations into sectors at EU level through EU policies.
These objectives were intended to be delivered through the implementation of 8 actions as summarised in Table 2-1 (below). The table also lists the performance indicators foreseen in the 2013 impact assessment. 14
Table 2-1 Objectives, actions and performance indicators
Objectives Actions (including abbreviated title) Performance indicators
-
1.Promoting action by 1. Encourage all Member States to adopt 1. Number of national adaptation strategies (NASs) Member States comprehensive adaptation strategies (Member and action plans and national climate change risk
State strategies) assessments
(Increasing the resilience 2. Provide LIFE funding to support capacity 2. Number and amount of LIFE grants used for of the EU territory) 15 building and step up adaptation action in Europe experience transfer and lighthouse projects
(LIFE) respectively
-
3.Introduce adaptation in the Covenant of Mayors 3. Number of cities pledging to develop an adaptation
framework (Covenant of Mayors) strategy and of cities with more than 150 000 inhabitants in vulnerable areas with an adaptation
strategy
-
2.Better informed 4. Bridge the knowledge gap (Knowledge gap) 4. List of knowledge gaps now, in 2017, and in 2020 decision-making + number of Horizon 2020 (H2020) and Joint
Research Centre (JRC) research projects dealing
with adaptation and associated budget allocated
-
5.Further develop Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one 5. Number of visitors to Climate-ADAPT, pages most stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe visited, number of registered users, assessment of (Climate-ADAPT) the content, databases and metadata + Number of
conferences, workshops, adaptation events
registered in Climate-ADAPT
-
-
3.Climate-proofing EU 6. Facilitate the climate-proofing of the Common 6. List of policies and legal acts where adaptation has
action: promoting Agricultural Policy, the Cohesion Policy 16 , and been mainstreamed + adaptation activities by
adaptation in key private organisations as reported in the Carbon
vulnerable sectors the Common Fisheries Policy (ESIF/CAP/CFP) Disclosure Project surveys
-
7.Amount of adaptation infrastructure investments
(Increasing the resilience 7. Ensuring more resilient infrastructure (co-) financed by EU funds and/or public financial of key vulnerable sectors) (Infrastructure) institutions + progress on the mapping exercise by
European Standardisation Organisations (ESOs) 18
-
8.Promote insurance and other financial products 8. No associated performance indicator in the impact for resilient investment and business decisions 17 assessment.
(Insurance and finance)
14 Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment accompanying the Communication on an EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, SWD(2013) 132 final.
15 The Communication labelled the specific objectives slightly differently than the Impact Assessment, but their substance is the same. The equivalent label from the Impact Assessment is shown in brackets in the table to ease comparison.
16 “European Structural and Investment Funds” (ESIF) is the name of the funds financing Cohesion Policy in the 2014-2020 period.
17 Promoting insurance for adaptation was included as an action in the Strategy, but there was no associated operational objective, or performance indicator, in the Impact Assessment.
18 Before the adoption of the Strategy, the European Standardisation Organisations had already expressed their intention to revise the Guide for addressing environmental issues in product standards (CEN – Comité Européen de Normalisation - Guide 4). However, it was action 7 of the Strategy, namely the mandate from the Commission to the ESOs that initiated the identification and update of standards in the fields of energy, transport and construction.
The impact assessment also set out operational objectives in the form of aspirational targets for 2020, to be measured through the performance indicators. The Strategy itself did not reiterate those operational objectives. 19 The specific activities under each action are listed in the intervention logic graph in Annex V and detailed in Annex VII.
In terms of the expected impacts, the activities, performance indicators and operational objectives make it clear that the strategy’s core mechanism is a leveraging effect through multiplier actions under the different objectives. These actions range from promoting the adoption and implementation of strategies at all levels of governance to funding research and demonstration projects, setting infrastructure standards and mainstreaming into other policies (including funding programmes).
External factors that have emerged since 2013 and have had an influence on the Strategy’s impacts include the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in recent years (that may be linked with global warming and which is likely to increase the costs of inaction, see section 6.1.1), and the adoption of several relevant
international frameworks, in particular the Paris Agreement on climate change 20 which
could affect the ambition level of EU adaptation policies in the future (see further discussion in Chapter 3).
The Strategy and its impact assessment were developed without prior intervention logic. Nevertheless, on their basis, the intervention logic in Annex V can be reconstructed to reflect the approach underlying the Strategy.
-
3.T HE S TRATEGY , EXTERNAL POLICIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT FOR
ADAPTATION
Integration of adaptation in external policies
The Strategy focuses on the adaptation to the impacts of climate on the EU territory. 21 As
such, it follows the approach adopted by most countries when developing national adaptation strategies. However, this also means that it does not make reference to any international policies or initiatives, nor does it emphasise the role of the EU’s external policies in supporting adaptation actions in non-EU countries.
The 2013 impact assessment considered that international issues were covered under the development and cooperation policy and through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. There was a concern that the adoption of an EU adaptation strategy setting objectives and actions relevant for discussions on adaptation in the international framework prior to the Paris Agreement would pre-empt the EU position in negotiations. Moreover, in order to push for higher mitigation ambition among Parties, the EU international climate policy was deliberately focused on mitigation, to the extent that even the EU’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) includes only mitigation.
19 The operational objectives from the impact assessment are listed in Annex VI.
20 The Paris Agreement was adopted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 12 December 2015 (ref. Document FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1) and entered into force on 4 November 2016.
21 International content (on links between climate and migration) featured only in an accompanying SWD. It was a response to a request by the European Council to the Commission in the context of the Stockholm Programme on citizenship, justice, security, asylum, immigration and visa policy for 2010- 2014.
The strategic choice of focusing the Strategy on domestic issues has not however reduced the importance that the EU attributes to international support for adaptation and resilience. On the contrary, the importance of mainstreaming adaptation in EU international policy has been increasingly recognized and much has been done with this purpose, in particular in the following key areas.
Development cooperation
Adaptation is recognized as one of the key cross-cutting issues in the 2017 EU's response to the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the European
Consensus on Development 'Our world, our dignity, our future' 22 , which sets out the
main principles for the approach of the EU and the Member States to cooperation with developing countries over the next 15 years, as well as a strategy for reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate change resilience in vulnerable countries is considered as an important element of sustainability. Moreover, climate change adaptation has been integrated in the EU's development programmes, be it national, regional or thematic, at all stages of the planning and implementation process. In addition to dedicated projects and programmes, climate change is systematically addressed as a cross-cutting issue to identify and address the associated risks and opportunities. The most prominent example of EU support to policy dialogue and climate action in developing countries is the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA+) initiative. Lessons learnt in planning for and implementing the Strategy, including scientific knowledge and tools gained, provide input for these processes.
Foreign and security policy (including migration)
During the period covered by the evaluation, recognition of the link between climate change, EU external relations and security has increased. The 2016 Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy and the 2017 Joint Communication on Resilience mention climate change explicitly as a threat. Moreover, concrete steps have been taken to integrate and recognize climate change as a threat multiplier which, if not addressed, can contribute to a downward spiral of fragility and conflict. Concretely, climate change has been included amongst the 10 criteria used by the EU for assessment
of early warning of conflict risk, in addition to water stress and food security. 23 For the
prioritised countries, an in-depth conflict analysis is conducted which also considers climate change impacts.
Relevant to the security angle is also the progress made on recognizing and further analysing the link between climate change and human displacement, as demonstrated at the international level by the establishment of a Task Force on Displacement in the
context of the UNFCCC. 24 Since 2013, EU policies on migration and external relations
have increasingly taken into account climate-related disasters as potential triggers to displacement, and the increasing challenges posed by climate change in this context. Climate change adaptation is seen as an effective tool to tackle root causes of migration. Examples include: Council conclusion on Climate diplomacy in 2013 25 , 2016 26 and
22 The new European consensus on development 'Our world, our dignity, our future', European Commission, 2017.
23 Joint Staff Working Document: EU Conflict Early Warning System: Objectives, Process and Guidance for Implementation, SWD(2016) 3 final.
24 https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/constituted-bodies/executive-committee-of-the-warsaw-internationalmechanism-for-loss-and-damage-wim-excom/areas-of-work/migration--displacement-and-human-
mobility 25 Council conclusions on EU Climate Diplomacy, Foreign Affairs Council meeting, Luxembourg, 24 June
2013
2018 27 and the 2016 Communication on Forced Displacement and Development 28 . Better
understanding, on the one hand, the role of climate change and environmental degradation as factors in decisions to migrate and, on the other hand, the potential role of migration as an adaptation option, continue to be a priority under the EU's external cooperation instruments for the period 2014-2020, both through dedicated thematic lines 29 and targeted projects to develop knowledge and practices to address climate induced migration.
Disaster risk reduction, including emergency response
As part of the post-2015 development agenda, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 30 was developed with a strong focus on risk prevention. To translate this framework into EU action, in July 2016 the Commission published an
Action Plan 31 on the implementation of the Sendai Framework. Climate change
adaptation and its links with disaster risk reduction are well integrated both in the Sendai framework and in the Action Plan.
An additional example include the New Urban Agenda 32 , adopted in Quito in 2016 which
recognizes the contribution of cities to mitigating climate change, and commits to improve the resilience of cities to disasters and climate change – these objectives are well aligned with the core vision of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. Synergies between the Covenant of Mayors and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction's Making Cities Resilient campaign are also being sought to maximise the impact, including on monitoring, reporting and indicators.
All these achievements/developments are not a direct outcome of the Strategy: they were triggered by external developments which have leveraged the importance and urgency of adaptation and its close relation to sustainable development, disaster risk reduction, security etc. The main triggers are:
-
-The importance for the EU to show leadership in international climate policy and actions including by adequately responding to the increasing demands from developing countries (in political dialogues and within UNFCCC negotiations) to support climate change resilience as a component of sustainable development.
-
-The growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events affecting EU 's partners and the likely link with global warming have put the need to address climate change (both mitigation and adaptation) and its impacts higher on the EU political agenda.
-
-The Arctic's relevance in climate change adaptation and mitigation has increased, due to recent scientific evidence on accelerated Arctic sea ice melt and its consequences for extreme weather events elsewhere on the planet. The 2016 Joint
26 Council conclusions on European climate diplomacy after COP21, Foreign Affairs Council Meeting, Brussels, 15 February 2016
27 Council conclusions on Climate Diplomacy, 26 February 2018
28 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Lives in Dignity: From Aid-dependence to
Self-reliance, COM(2016) 234 final i 29 Commision Implementing Decision adopting a Multiannual Indicative Programme for the Thematic
Programme 'Global Public Goods and Challenges' for the period 2014-2020. C(2014)5072 30 The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 was adopted at the Third UN World
Conference in Sendai, Japan, on March 18, 2015. 31 Commission Staff Working Document: Action Plan on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, SWD(2016) 205 final/2.
Communication on an integrated EU policy for the Arctic recognised the relevance of
the region for climate action. 33
-
-The adoption of other major international frameworks in 2015, and in particular the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Convention on Biological
Diversity (CBD) Aichi targets 34 , and Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development
Goals 35 , as well as the New Urban Agenda in 2016.
On its side, the implementation of the Strategy has contributed to a strengthening of EU's external action on climate resilience by, for instance, improving the knowledge base, and offering a test-base for adaptation options and responses that could be relevant outside EU territories. 36
The international context and the EU adaptation strategy
The evaluation support study highlights that the context of international adaptation policy has changed: the initial assumptions on the basis of which the international setting was not included in the Strategy might not hold any more. The study points to a need to reflect on whether a clearer strategic framework is necessary to better enhance coherence and alignment between international policies, actions and processes of relevance to climate change adaptation. And in this context, whether the Strategy is the appropriate channel where this strategic framework should be included.
The following elements could bring useful insight in this direction:
-
-Already in 2010, the adoption of the Cancún adaptation framework foretold the importance that adaptation would gather in the future, with the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement raises adaptation ambition, putting it on equal footing with mitigation in our collective response to climate change.The Paris Agreement moreover changes the narrative: climate change affects all countries and therefore adaptation needs to be a goal to which all Parties need to contribute. Specifically Art 7 of the Agreement asks Parties to engage on adaptation e.g. by developing plans/strategies, assessing vulnerabilities, monitoring adaptation policies and actions, sharing knowledge and lessons learnt, strengthening the scientific knowledge on climate etc. It also requires regular monitoring and revision of adaptation policies. Moreover the Paris Agreement includes adaptation in the 'ambition cycle', and in 2023: the EU, as a Party, will be asked to report on progress and actions on adaptation and eventually, if relevant, redefine ambition, by reviewing its strategies and policies. Our adaptation policy should ensure adequate alignment to this framework.
34 The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was adopted in Rio de Janeiro on 5 June 1992 and entered into force on 29 December 1993: https://www.cbd.int/convention/text/.
35 The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the UN Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by the United Nations General Assembly through resolution 70/1: (ref. Document A/RES/70/1, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld)
36 For instance, the 2017 EU Submission to the UNFCCC on adaptation (see footnote Error! Bookmark not defined.) presents how the Strategy has promoted the use of ecosystem based adaptation in Europe, which can provide relevant information and examples to third countries with similar challenges or ecosystems, in particular the most vulnerable.
-
-Climate change worldwide will have consequences on the EU in the area of trade 37
(including food security), migration, and ecosystems, among others. Stakeholders expressed concern that the Strategy does not meet the EU’s needs with regard to climate change impacts beyond its borders. Our adaptation policy should consider how to prepare the EU for the effects of climate change in third countries and to some extent already does, via all the policies and measures mentioned above in the area of
international adaptation.
The possible scope for alignment with international policy developments since 2013 would therefore merit to be examined, as well as the potential implications for the EU of transboundary effects of climate impacts in third countries via value chains, migratory flows, trade and financial flows, for instance.
Some further details on the above-mentioned international frameworks are provided in Annex VIII section 13.
-
4.B ASELINE / I MPLEMENTATION / STATE OF P LAY 38
The Commission’s 2009 White Paper “Adapting to climate change: towards a European
framework for action” 39 identified a number of possible areas for EU action and was
already instrumental in triggering reaction in the Member States. For example, the number of countries with vulnerability assessments and national adaptation strategies
(NAS) started to increase already before the 2013 Strategy. 40 The Strategy built on these
dynamics, its objectives and actions covered all of the areas identified in the White Paper, except international policy as explained in Chapter 3.
Objective 1: Promoting action by Member States
Action 1 Member State strategies 41
Situation in 2013
15 Member States had adopted an adaptation strategy and/or plan. 42 The level of detail of
these adaptation strategies or plans differed widely among Member States and there were important gaps. In particular:
37 See Case Study 2 in Annex XIV. PESETA III assessments by the JRC also show that transboundary climate impacts may affect the EU via international trade, see Preliminary Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the EU based on bottom-up Analysis, JRC, 2018. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta
38 Considering that both the baseline and the state of play need to be discussed for all 8 actions, it was considered appropriate for readability to merge the two sections. The baseline description draws upon analysis carried out in preparation of the 2013 Strategy (the impact assessment, the background report to the impact assessment and various SWDs published alongside the Strategy) to describe the baseline both in terms of the actual situation prior to the launch of the Strategy and in terms of the future situation expected at the launch without the implementation of the Strategy. For Action 8, more limited information is available, as it was not addressed in the Impact Assessment.
39 White Paper on Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action, COM(2009) 147 i/4.
40 'National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe', European Environment Agency, 2018.
41 The full title of the Strategy’s actions is given in Table 2-1 in Chapter 2.
42 Different terms are used by different Member States, but these documents essentially capture similar elements. In general, adaptation plans typically include more specific details on actions to be taken.
• The funding of adaptation options remained vague in many cases; • Only a third of Member States had assessed impacts, vulnerabilities and
adaptation options to support policy; and
• Only two Member States had made substantial progress in developing indicators
and monitoring methodologies.
• Almost none of the adaptation strategies in place dealt with transboundary issues,
or employment or social issues;
•
Of those Member States with no NAS at that time, most were in the process of developing one, whereas Southern and Central European countries were least advanced in the process.
Baseline
According to the Impact Assessment it was expected that without intervention, the adaptation strategies would continue varying in terms of scope (in particular on transboundary issues), level of ambition and agreed financing of adaptation measures. Barriers in human or financial resources to the adoption of further strategies would remain.
Implementation / State of play
The Strategy was endorsed by the Environment Council 43 who recognised the importance of NASs and called upon all Member States to shape their adaptation policies in the light of the guidelines of the Commission. Guidance for Member States on preparing NASs was published alongside the Strategy. 44 The guidance is integrated in the Climate ADAPT adaptation tool. 45
In collaboration with the Member States, the Commission developed the proposed ‘adaptation preparedness scoreboard’ largely based on the process and approaches recommended in the guidance. 46 Using the scoreboard, the Commission prepared country fiches on each Member State in an iterative consultation process. 47 The country fiches
assess the Member States’ adaptation policy, including the content of NASs and plans, for the following aspects:
▪ Institutional structure ▪ Quality of national vulnerability assessments
43 3246 th Council meeting adapting conclusions on the Commission communication "An EU strategy on adaptation to climate change": Press Release – 10876/13, Council of the European Union, 2013.
44 Commission Staff Working Document: Guidelines on developing adaptation strategies, SWD(2013) 134 final. The guidance includes detailed advice on methods for preparing an adaptation strategy, accompanied by practical examples (based on several Member States’ experience), checklists, and detailed information on the range of support available at European level.
45 First version published in March, 2012: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/adaptationsupport-tool
46 The first draft was published on Climate-ADAPT: http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/eu-adaptation href="http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/eu-adaptation-policy/strategy/index_html/resolveuid/bbc416202fd844b1a09f90a2990553ae">policy/strategy/index_html/resolveuid/bbc416202fd844b1a09f90a2990553ae
47 The first versions of the fiches, prepared in 2014-15, were unpublished and used to fine-tune the scoreboard. The second drafts of the Member State fiches were published as background documents to the public consultation on this evaluation in December 2017. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/evaluation-eus-strategy-adaptation-climate-change_en
▪ Knowledge creation (national observation systems in relevant
sectors 48 and climate modelling), transfer and use
▪ Action plans: - Quality (incl. the basis used for assessment of adaptation options)
-
-Actual implementation mechanisms ▪ Funding mechanisms
▪ Mainstreaming into sectoral policies, in particular: - Disaster risk reduction
-
-Spatial planning - Environmental impact assessment (EIA) (how the Directive is transposed nationally) - Insurance policy
▪ Transboundary cooperation ▪ Monitoring mechanisms in different sectors and governance levels
The final versions of the fiches accompany this evaluation report in a separate Staff
Working Document (SWD). 49
The scoreboard’s assessment of the Member State’s adaptation preparedness is summarised in section 6.2.2 and is also the subject of a more detailed horizontal assessment in Annex IX.
Performance indicator: Number of NASs and action plans and national climate change risk assessments
25 of the 28 Member States had adopted NASs by early 2018. Strategies are being developed in the remaining three Member States (Latvia, Bulgaria and Croatia) but have not yet been adopted.
Action 2 LIFE
Situation in 2013
There was no LIFE sub-programme specifically allocated to climate action prior to the Strategy. However, between 2000 and 2015, EU support of EUR 152 million (EUR 307 million with co-financing) was provided to nearly 150 projects focusing fully or partly on climate change adaptation, including to the development of Cyprus’ and Malta’s NASs
and some cross-border projects. 50
Baseline
Without intervention in the form of a further reinforced adaptation component in the LIFE programme, it was expected that many authorities would find it difficult to find the necessary financial resources to develop adaptation strategies, organise cross-border cooperation and identify best practice across the EU.
48 These relate for example to meteorology, floods, drought, sea level, coastal erosion, biodiversity, human/animal/plant health etc.
49 SWD(2018)460
50 The most common themes were: water policy with focus on scarcity and floods (43 projects), agriculture (25 projects) and urban action (22 projects). Camarsa, G., Toland, J., Eldridge, J., & et al., LIFE and
Climate Change Adaptation, Study for the European Commission, 2015.
Implementation / State of play 51
The budget under the LIFE Regulation 2014-2020 and the Multiannual Work Programme 2014-2017 is split between the Environment and Climate Action sub-programmes. The Regulation foresees that 25% (i.e. EUR 864 million) of the LIFE budget would be assigned to Climate Action, with a fairly even split between adaptation and mitigation. Since 2014, four calls for proposals were launched (2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017) and the projects from the last call started in the summer of 2018.
Performance indicator: Number and amount of LIFE grants used for experience transfer and lighthouse projects 52 respectively
As per the 2014 LIFE regulation, all LIFE grant projects involve experience transfer and replication and are classified either as pilot, demonstration, best-practice or integrated projects, which were considered the criteria for lighthouse projects.
As of April 2018, there are at least 60 ongoing adaptation-related LIFE projects worth €184 million in project cost. This includes two integrated projects in Denmark and Spain 53 that operate in a wider geographical area and serve a broader range of purposes, including adaptation. Beneficiaries estimate that 3-5 years after their completion the adaptation-related projects from 2014-2016 will impact through replication and transfer an area of 1.8 million km2, equivalent to one fourth of the EU territory. 54 LIFE projects also help other actions of the Strategy, such as urban adaptation.
In addition, under LIFE, the European Investment Bank (EIB) operates an innovative financial instrument, the Natural Capital Financing Facility (NCFF), providing loan or equity financing and technical assistance to natural capital projects. These NCFF projects aim to generate revenues or save costs while delivering on biodiversity and climate adaptation objectives. For this, the Commission provides financial guarantees in the amount of €50 million and technical support for projects in the amount of €10 million. The NCFF €125 million financing (of which almost half is already committed to two adaptation-related projects) is expected to generate an additional €400 million of public and private investment by 2021. 55
More details on adaptation in the LIFE programme are provided in section 1 of Annex VIII.
51 A separate mid-term evaluation of the LIFE Programme on environment and climate was recently completed ( http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/publications/lifepublications/evaluation/index.htm ). The results of the report, together with other supporting literature and findings from the stakeholder interviews, provide a basis for our evaluation of Action 2.
52 The term “lighthouse project” was used to refer to pilot, demonstration, best-practice or integrated projects under the LIFE programme in the previous multiannual financial framework.
53 EU LIFE IP C2C CC ( LIFE15 IPC/DK/000006 and LIFE16 IPC/ES/000001 )
54 Information extracted from internal databases of the Executive Agency on Small and Medium Enterprises (EASME) who manage the LIFE programme.
55 http://www.eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2018/2018-128-successful-roll-out-of-eur-400m-natural href="http://www.eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2018/2018-128-successful-roll-out-of-eur-400m-natural-capital-initiative-supporting-conservation-across-europe.htm">capital-initiative-supporting-conservation-across-europe.htm
Action 3 Covenant of Mayors
Situation in 2013
Around a quarter (24%) of 100 surveyed cities in 2012 reported they had already adopted
an adaptation strategy, 56 while under half believed they were still in the very early stages
of work on adaptation. Cities within several Member States had formed their own networks, as a result of either national or international initiatives, but no EU-level network existed for adaptation.
Baseline
It was expected that without additional actions, regional and local adaptation strategies would continue to develop as previously. Barriers related to legal competence, and human or financial resources to the adoption of further strategies would remain.
Implementation / State of play
Performance indicator: Number of cities pledging to develop an adaptation strategy and of cities with more than 150 000 inhabitants in vulnerable areas with an adaptation strategy.
Mayors Adapt (the Covenant of Mayors Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change) 57 was launched by the Commission in March 2014 and merged into the Covenant of Mayors initiative in 2015, introducing an integrated approach on mitigation and adaptation.
Signatories to the Covenant voluntarily commit to develop a climate vulnerability and risk assessment and an action plan for targeted adaptation options, including reporting every two years, within two years of signing up to the initiative. The Covenant office (implemented and funded by the Commission) informs, mobilises and supports local authorities, in cooperation with the Commission’s JRC who prepare guidelines for the local authorities’ actions. The Commission also ensures that the relevant EU funds and financial instruments can support the Covenant signatories in their actions.
By 30 April 2018, 1076 Covenant signatories from 25 EU Member States, covering around 60 million inhabitants, had committed to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments, and develop, implement and report on adaptation plans.
According to recent surveys, it is estimated that about 26% of all EU cities (both Covenant cities and non-Covenant) and 40% of EU cities of more than 150.000
inhabitants 58 have already adopted adaptation plans. 59 In general, cities in Eastern and
56 Source: the 2013 Impact Assessment of the Strategy. The survey covered a range of cities of variable size in 21 of the EU Member States. It was found that 8% of the cities surveyed had no work planned or begun on climate adaptation, and 22% had work planned. Of the 70% that had begun work on adaptation: 1% believed that their climate adaptation programme is far advanced, 6% are moving ahead of the field, 16% are well on the way, and 47% are still in the very early stages of work on adaptation.
57 http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/about/covenant-initiative/origins-and-development.html
58 Source: communication with the coordinator of the study D. Reckien et al., (2018). How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU- 28, Journal of Cleaner Production, 26 March 2018. The coordinator extracted this figure from the study's database.
Southern Europe have fewer local adaptation plans, whereas Central and Northern
European cities often have such plans. 60
Building on the success of the Covenant, the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and
Energy 61 was launched in 2017 bringing together the Compact of Mayors 62 and the
Covenant of Mayors in a worldwide campaign.
More details on the Covenant of Mayors are provided in section 2 of Annex VIII.
Objective 2: Better informed decision-making
Action 4 Knowledge gaps
Situation in 2013
In spite of progress achieved through national, EU and global research in addressing
relevant knowledge gaps, the following gaps persisted 63 :
-
1.Information on projected costs and benefits of impacts and adaptation 2. Regional and local-level analyses and risk assessments
-
3.Frameworks, models and tools to support decision making under uncertainty 64
and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures 4. Monitoring and evaluation of past adaptation efforts
Baseline
Without coordinated research efforts among EU and national institutions, overlaps in research projects and knowledge gaps would not be addressed, resulting in an inefficient use of public funding for research.
Implementation / State of play
Performance indicator: List of knowledge gaps now, in 2017, and in 2020, plus number of H2020 and JRC research projects dealing with adaptation and associated budget allocated.
Regarding the indicator “List of knowledge gaps now, in 2017, and in 2020”, since the knowledge gaps were formulated in an open-ended way (rather than as focused or sector
59 The proportion of cities with more than 150 000 inhabitants having actually reported an adaptation strategy to the Covenant of Mayors is only 3%. There seems to be a major reporting gap for reasons explained in Annex VIII section 2, and also not all cities of this size are members of the Covenant of Mayors.
60 D. Reckien et al., (2018). How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, Journal of Cleaner Production, 26 March 2018.
61 https://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/
62 http://impact.compactofmayors.org/
63 The Impact Assessment (page 14) suggested one more knowledge gap: ‘Socio-economic trends that are interrelated with climatic changes’, but in the end it was not listed in the Strategy. See Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment, SWD(2013) 132 final.
64 One of the key challenges for adaptation appraisal is the high uncertainty involved. The most common techniques used in economic appraisal have limitations in coping with this, and a suite of new decision support tools have emerged that advance decision-making under uncertainty. See a London School of Economics and Political Science working paper: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/a-review-of-the-economics-of-adaptation-and-climate-resilient-development/">review-of-the-economics-of-adaptation-and-climate-resilient-development/
specific questions), it is difficult to assess if they have been closed. Nevertheless, evidence indicates that despite a substantial increase in the knowledge base, none of the priority knowledge gaps have been fully closed, and new gaps have emerged in sectors such as ecosystem-based adaptation, relationship to sustainable development goals, global transboundary (spillover) effects of climate change impacts and risks, adapting infrastructure and mountainous areas, long-term lack of water resources, high-end climate change, health, coastal areas, biodiversity. Regarding the indicator ‘Number of Horizon 2020 and JRC research projects dealing with adaptation and associated budget allocated’, in total 124 research projects, reports and articles were identified on adaptation under Framework Programme 7 (FP7) and H2020 as well as originating from JRC, European Environment Agency (EEA), service contracts of the Commission and other EU sources, involving a total budget of EUR 285 million. The most frequently addressed topics were water, nature, and agriculture.
More details on bridging the knowledge gaps are provided in section 4 of Annex VIII.
Action 5 Climate-ADAPT
Situation in 2013
Prior to the Strategy, Climate-ADAPT was already launched in March 2012 as a web portal in common ownership of the Commission and the EEA with the objectives to build a consistent and updated knowledge base, in particular:
-
-To facilitate the collection, sharing and use of information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in the EU;
-
-to assist an effective uptake of the relevant knowledge by decision-makers; and - to contribute to a greater level of coordination among sectors and institutional levels.
At the time of the launch, the various other relevant EU services and platforms, such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service 65 or the Disaster Risk Knowledge Management Centre 66 did not yet exist. While Climate-ADAPT experienced a high volume of users immediately after its launch in 2012, as compared with other EEA products, users needed more encouragement to make use of it, to upload relevant information and to collect data and information from local and regional levels, including private sector initiatives.
National adaptation portals existed in six Member States 67 and more limited adaptation
portals in eight others, but the information transfer between national and local levels was not optimal. The Strategy noted the need to improve access to information and develop interaction between Climate-ADAPT and other relevant platforms, including national and local adaptation portals.
Baseline
Funding for Climate-ADAPT was expected to continue regardless of the Strategy, but it was not expected that the portal’s coverage gaps on local or regional issues would be addressed without intervention. There would also be additional costs of quality control of reporting of adaptation-related findings from EU-funded research projects. It was
65 https://climate.copernicus.eu/
66 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/network-bureau/disaster-risk-management-knowledge-centre
67 Austria, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
expected that mainstreaming of adaptation in sectoral science-policy interfaces 68 would
remain limited, affecting the accessibility of adaptation research to decision makers, particularly in those sectors where no science-policy interface was identified, such as energy or transport.
Implementation / State of play
Performance indicator: Number of visitors to Climate-ADAPT, pages most visited, number of registered users, assessment of the content, databases and metadata + Number of conferences, workshops, adaptation events registered in Climate-ADAPT
Climate-ADAPT had 409 565 visitors between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018, the most visited pages being the database, the adaptation support tools, the case studies, EU policy pages and the country pages. The number of registered users (recipients of the newsletter) amounted to about 5 000 in April 2018. The core of Climate-ADAPT are its knowledge database and webpages, which currently comprise of about 2 400 items in total. A detailed assessment of the content, databases and metadata is provided in the
EEA mid-term evaluation report on Climate-ADAPT. 69 The total number of conferences,
workshops and adaptation events registered was 107 between 29 April 2014 and 31 March 2018.
More details on Climate-ADAPT are provided in section 5 of Annex VIII.
Objective 3: Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors
Action 6 ESIF / CAP / CFP, including general mainstreaming
Situation in 2013
Adaptation had been mainstreamed into a broad range of sectors listed in the introduction to Objective 3 in the Strategy (with legislation and policy documents adopted or Commission proposals tabled by 2013). 70 Some policy initiatives in the pipeline were also listed for imminent mainstreaming. 71 However, adaptation had yet to be
mainstreamed into social and education policies, tourism, fisheries, insurance and trade, while further work was deemed necessary in energy, transport, the EU’s outermost regions, disaster risk reduction, health and in particular funding programmes under the 2014-20 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
68 Science-policy interfaces aim to bridge relations between scientists and other actors in the policy process, which allow for exchanges, co-evolution, and joint construction of knowledge with the aim of enriching decision-making.
69 See footnote 7.
70 Maritime policy, inland water, transport, biodiversity, migration and mobility, agriculture and forestry, maritime spatial planning, integrated coastal management, energy, disaster risk prevention and management, research, health, and the environment. In terms of transboundary cooperation, the Floods Directive and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) had been particularly effective in the water sector; and European and pan-European early warning and detection systems for weather-driven natural disasters existed, such as the European Flood Awareness System, the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and the European Drought Observatory.
71 Invasive alien species, green infrastructure, land as a resource, a new EU Forest Strategy, coastal zone management, and Natura 2000.
Baseline
Without the Strategy, mainstreaming activities would continue on an ad hoc basis with no adequate prioritisation.
Implementation / State of play
Performance indicator: List of policies and legal acts where adaptation has been mainstreamed
In terms of the general mainstreaming under Objective 3, it is clear that significant progress has been made in increasing awareness and explicit consideration of adaptation issues where foreseen in the Strategy, while falling short of adaptation mainstreaming that would be fully “consistent and comprehensive”. In section 6 of Annex VIII, more details are given on the degree of mainstreaming in the following key sectors:
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) • Outermost Regions • Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) • Water policy • Urban policy • Energy Union
Although not within the scope of the Strategy, adaptation is actively mainstreamed also in some areas of the EU’s international policy (see Chapter 3).
A full list of policy initiatives where adaptation is mainstreamed or where the Commission has made a legal proposal for mainstreaming is provided in Annex XI. The list includes information on all those initiatives that were mentioned in the introduction to the Strategy’s Objective 3 “Increasing the resilience of key vulnerable sectors”.
Performance indicator: Adaptation activities by private organisations as reported in the
Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) 72 surveys
In spite of the fact that the 2013 impact assessment included this performance indicator in the monitoring framework of the Strategy, none of its actions targeted the adaptation activities of private organisations in general.
The CDP surveys filled in by companies in the period covered by the evaluation did not
include reporting concretely about climate adaptation activities. 73 Still, the surveys
allowed measuring the extent to which companies regard climate change as a risk to their business (84 to 91% do), and at least in some sectors, they also hint at what kind of risk reduction measures they have applied (supplier diversification and engagement 41%, infrastructure and technological investment 26%).
More detailed results from CDP surveys are presented in section 7 of Annex VIII.
72 The 2013 impact assessment designated the CDP ( www.cdp.net ) as the data source for the indicator on company adaptation preparedness. The CDP runs a global disclosure system that enables companies, cities, states and regions to measure and manage their environmental impacts, including aspects that allow measuring their level of preparedness for climate change. The impact assessment did not motivate the choice of this data source.
73 For any further tracking of this objective, it would be necessary to ensure that the indicator can be properly monitored.
Mainstreaming into the EU funds
The Strategy devoted its Action 6 entirely to mainstreaming in the areas of EU funds (ESIF which include the following five funds: European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), Cohesion Fund (CF), European Social Fund (ESF), European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF), and related policies such as cohesion policy, CAP and CFP), although no specific performance indicator or operational objective was linked to this action. The following advancements were made in the period covered by the evaluation:
-
1.Legal provisions on climate change were included in the framework governing the ESIF funds, the Common Provisions Regulation (CPR) 74 , notably:
-
a.A 20% EU mainstreaming objective for climate mitigation and adaptation,
20% earmarking of funding for low-carbon economy (TO4)
-
b.Horizontal provision for mainstreaming sustainable development,
including climate change adaptation in all programmes and investments
-
c.A thematic objective (TO5) on “climate change adaptation, risk
prevention and management”
-
d.An ex-ante conditionality which fixed the existence of national/regional
risk assessments (also of climate risks) as a pre-condition to funding under
TO5, taking into account also the NAS where available
-
e.detailed climate tracking methodology and common output indicators
-
f.The requirement to assess and address the climate change adaptation
needs and disaster resilience of major projects. 75
Of the points above, only paragraph b) was applied in the case of the European Social Fund. It has to be recalled that the funds are under shared management between the Commission and the Member States, so the implementation of the these provisions relies largely on national action.
-
-
2.Three guidance documents were published alongside the Strategy to help Member States authorities to consider climate adaptation effectively within the
programming cycles of ESIF, CAP and CFP. 76
-
3.Several guiding factsheets were produced on mainstreaming both mitigation and
adaptation, listing also a set of possible adaptation actions with examples. 77
-
4.The Commission provided extensive climate-related comments on all of the ESIF Partnership Agreements and most of the fund-specific programmes. In the implementation phase, it only approved major projects (those that receive more than € 50 or 75 million EU support) that were climate-proofed.
74 Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013 i of the European Parliament and the Council of 17 December 2013. Strictly speaking, the Commission proposal for the Regulation cannot be considered a result of the Strategy, as it pre-dates it. However, the implementation of the CPR clearly worked towards the objective of the Strategy’s Action 6.
75 A major project has a total eligible cost exceeding EUR 50 million (and EUR 75 million for transport projects) (https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/guidances/climate-change-and-major-projects). The Commission approves such projects only if they are accompanied by “an analysis of the environmental impact, considering climate change adaptation and mitigation needs, and disaster resilience”. For non-major projects, i.e. projects below the applicable threshold, the responsibility for climate-proofing investment (or the promotion of climate change adaptation stipulated by Art. 8 CPR) lies largely with the Member States.
76 See Annex IV.
77 Climate action in ESIF: Introduction to the series of Fact Sheets on the potential for mainstreaming of climate action and the assessment hereof, European Commission, 2015. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/.../01-climate_mainstreaming_fact_sheet-esif_introduction_en.pdf
In terms of direct funding, a recent study 78 provides an overall estimate of all ESIF
allocations to climate adaptation at EUR 62.1 billion. It estimates that allocations to TO5 (“Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management”) are EUR 6.3 billion and EUR 1.1 billion from the ERDF / CF and the EAFRD, respectively. It also estimates that allocations to adaptation actions through other Thematic Objectives amount to EUR 4.9 billion for the ERDF and the CF and EUR 49.8 billion for the EAFRD. However, given the nature of ESIF, there is also a significant time lag effect in this policy area, so that results and impacts cannot be fully assessed yet. Besides, the eventually realised amounts will depend on the implementation of climate action during the period 2014-2020. From the amendment of various programmes, the general impression is that the climate related expenditure including for adaptation will increase compared to the outset (i.e. at the end of the programming process in the beginning of the period 2014-2020).
Beyond the direct funding there are a number of advancement in terms of horizontal mainstreaming, such as climate-proofing of major projects and increased used of green infrastructure solutions (as opposed to grey infrastructures) across different thematic areas.
Detailed observations about the status of mainstreaming adaptation into the funds are presented in section 8 of Annex VIII.
Action 7 Infrastructure
Situation in 2013
There was no substantive requirement across sectors to consider climate risks in the analysis of the vulnerabilities and costs/benefits of projects, and in their technical characteristics, in particular due to a lack of a common methodology. Work on design standards was uneven because of the resources required to incorporate consideration of climate change adaptation in the thousands of design-standards potentially affected.
Baseline
It was expected that without further EU action, only vague consideration would be given to climate change by new infrastructural investments. Many small and medium-sized enterprises would be unable to implement necessary adaptation measures and become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of unavoidable climate change.
Implementation / State of play
Performance indicator: Amount of adaptation infrastructure investments (co-)financed by EU funds and/or public financial institutions
The key expenditure programmes funding adaptation infrastructure are the ERDF and
CF. 79 Budget allocations (compared with total budget) to Thematic Objective 5
78 COWI, Mainstreaming of adaptation into the ESIF 2014-2020, Study for the European Commission,
2017. 79 Expenditure under other programmes particularly relevant to climate adaptation is less likely to focus on
infrastructure investment, e.g., climate expenditure under the EAFRD primarily includes support to farming in areas of natural constraint, support for agri-environment-climate commitments, or support for
(Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management) are detailed in
the table below. 80
Fund TO5, 2017 Total, 2017 TO5, 2018 Total, 2018 (million EUR) (million EUR) (million EUR) (million EUR)
ERDF 430.2 5387.3 445.7 5581.5
CF 342.7 2503.0 355.4 2596.5
There are 548 major projects currently foreseen of which 178 have been approved. The eligible cost of the 178 approved projects is EUR 29.6 billion, which points towards a total eligible cost of the 548 major projects of about EUR 90-95 billion. The EU contribution for the 178 approved projects is EUR 20 billion, which points towards a total contribution for the 548 major projects of about EUR 60-65 billion. The major projects are subject to climate proofing.
However, it should be noted that some relevant climate adaptation infrastructure may be funded under other Thematic Objectives, particularly TO4 (Low-carbon economy), TO6 (Preserving and protecting the environment and promoting resource efficiency) and TO7 (Promoting sustainable transport). The legal basis does not provide a tracking methodology distinguishing between mitigation and adaptation spending under these TOs. Equally, not all investments recorded under TO5 will be relevant to climate adaptation.
As to adaptation infrastructure financed by public financial institutions, the EIB reports that in 2017, out of total climate action finance of EUR 19.4 billion, EUR 0.8 billion was spent on climate adaptation, an amount slightly inferior to two years before (EUR 20.7 billion and EUR 0.8 billion, respectively). The EIB also reports that a total of EUR 4.5 billion was spent on adaptation over the five years 2011-2015, suggesting a steady level of financing.
Performance indicator: progress on the mapping exercise by CEN-CENELEC (Comité Européen de Normalisation and Comité Européen de Normalisation en Electronique et en Electrotechnique)
On a mandate from the Commission, the ESOs compiled a list of 12 industry standards to be revised and 1 standard to be written in order to ensure that new major infrastructure projects are climate resilient. They also adopted a 'Guide for addressing climate change adaptation in standards'. 81
More information on the work of the ESOs is available in section 9 of Annex VIII.
organic farming; LIFE programme expenditure on adaptation includes significant investment in best practice and knowledge sharing, and so on.
80 From the Statement of Estimates for the Financial Year 2018. See: DRAFT General Budget of the European Union for the financial year 2018, COM(2017) 400 final i, and: Statement of Estimates of the Commission for 2018, SEC(2017)250.
81 CEN-CENELEC, CEN-CENELEC Guide 32:2016, Available through: https://www.cencenelec.eu/standards/Guides/Pages/default.aspx
Other relevant initiatives
The EIA Directive was updated in 2014 82 to include vulnerability to climate change
among the aspects to be considered in project impact assessments, where relevant. As mentioned above under Action 6, the CPR also requires that climate change adaptation needs and disaster resilience of the funded projects are assessed and the projects are climate-proofed. Mandatory sectoral guidelines were adopted in 2013 for Trans European Networks for Energy and Transport (TEN-E / TEN-T), with several provisions
aiming at climate-proofing. 83
8 European financing institutions, including the Commission, the EIB and the European Bank for Reconstitution and Development (EBRD), have created a Working Group on
Adaptation to Climate Change (EUFIWACC). 84 They published a guide in 2016
designed to help practitioners assess climate change risks and vulnerabilities and better integrate adaptation measures into project planning, design and implementation. 85 The Commission also published or updated several other EU guidance documents for planning infrastructure projects to include consideration of climate risk in the planning phase, including in cost-benefit analysis. 86
Action 7 of the Strategy announces guidance on the mobilisation of ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation of infrastructure. A fact sheet was published in 2016 in the
context of the implementation of the Green Infrastructure Strategy 87 , discussing costs and
benefits of green infrastructure in relation to adaptation and presenting good practice
examples. 88 Further, work on voluntary guidelines for the design and implementation of
ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction is ongoing at international level.
Action 8 Insurance and finance
While significant effort is placed at the national and European level on preventing damage caused by weather and climate related disasters, for example through adaptation
82 Directive 2014/52 i/EU of the European Parliament and the Council of 16 April 2014.
83 Regulation (EU) No 347/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2013, and Regulation (EU) No 1315/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013. See in particular recitals 22, 23, 33 and 34, and articles 3(t), 5.1(e), 5.1(g), 5.4, 10.1(e), 33(h), 35, 47(d) and 50 of the latter Regulation.
84 EUFIWACC consists of the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), the Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB), EBRD, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA), the EIB, KfW Development Bank (KFW), the Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) and the Dutch Development Bank (FMO).
85 Integrating Climate Change Information and Adaptation in Project Development: Emerging Experience from Practitioners, EUFIWACC, 2016. http://www.eib.org/attachments/press/integrating-climate href="http://www.eib.org/attachments/press/integrating-climate-change-adaptation-in-project-development.pdf">change-adaptation-in-project-development.pdf
86 Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climate resilient, European Commission, 2016.
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Environmental Impact Assessment, European Commission, 2013. Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Strategic Environmental Assessment, European Commission, 2013. Climate Change and Major Projects, European Commission, 2016. Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects, European Commission, 2014.
87 Trinomics et al., Supporting the Implementation of Green Infrastructure: Final Report, Study for the European Commission, 2016.
88 Trinomics et al., ibid.
strategies, climate proofing of investments, national risk assessments and other disaster and climate risk policies, not all risks can be averted. This residual risk affects all areas of society and can be addressed in different ways, through self-insurance, public aid, voluntary insurance schemes or mandatory insurance required by law. 89 Insurance policies raise awareness of climate risks and may also provide the right incentive to invest into preventive action.
Situation in 2013
Disaster risk insurance had a low market penetration rate, which negatively affected not only the insurance sector but also the economic value of the insured and non-insured assets that remained vulnerable.
Insurance aimed towards natural and manmade disasters was addressed by the
Commission in a Green Paper 90 published alongside the Strategy. The aim of the paper
was to raise awareness and to assess whether action at EU level could be appropriate to improve the market for disaster insurance in the EU.
Baseline
It was assumed that without further policy intervention, the market penetration rate of disaster risk insurance in Member States would remain low. A JRC Technical Report 91 that was published before the launch of the Strategy indicates that for floods only a fifth of the Member States had high insurance penetration rates, and almost half of the Member States had a low to medium insurance penetration rate.
Implementation / State of play
There was no associated performance indicator in the 2013 impact assessment against which progress could be measured. From the Strategy itself, it can be inferred that progress was to be achieved by:
-
1)Encouraging insurers to support climate risk reduction and climate risk management measures;
-
2)Improving the market penetration of natural disaster insurance;
-
3)Using insurance pricing and other financial products i) for risk-awareness, prevention and risk mitigation; ii) for long-term resilience in investment and business decisions.
89 Tort law applies in case some agent can be held accountable for the damage, and entitles individuals to receive compensation from that specific agent; state/public aid involves a compensatory wealth transfer from the public sector splitting up losses among the entire society; finally, insurance involves a
capitalization process that hedges individuals against residual risk. Source: Initiative on Climate Change
policy and Governance, Insurance schemes in the agriculture sector to address climate change impacts.
Reflection No. 46/March 2016, 2016.
90 See footnote 14.
91 'Natural Catastrophes: Risk relevance and Insurance Coverage in the EU EUR 25013 EN - 2011', JRC,
2012.
Insurance
The Commission completed a study in 2017 on the insurance of weather and climate related disaster risk. 92 The study has increased the knowledge of insurance as a tool in adaptation and disaster risk reduction, by mapping the national insurance markets in 12 Member States.
Observed trends
According to this study, currently, risk transfer does not constitute an integral part of adaptation approaches in many Member States, in spite of the fact that the insurance industry’s risk pricing can allow efficient scoping in terms of where risk reduction is required. Member States apply diverse systems of insurance, which represents a challenge to an increased market-penetration of risk transfer mechanisms across Europe.
Two studies commissioned by the EU 93 looked into insurance as a risk management tool
in agriculture. The studies recommend the integration and further support to risk management instruments in the framework of the agricultural policy, to strengthen capacity to implement, manage and control such instruments, and to better link vulnerability, funding and insurance as a risk management tool.
With regard to DRR and adaptation to climate change, the EU Action Plan on the Sendai Framework includes actions on insurance, which foresee, inter alia, to follow up to the Green Paper on the insurance of natural and man-made disasters, published together with the EU Adaptation Strategy. 94
There were some concrete activities in relation to insurance and climate adaptation,
notably an expert group 95 was created to consider how to collect better data on losses, as
it is easier to convince people to take adaptation actions when shown that this can reduce losses.
Other financial products and services
Insurance companies are important institutional investors into climate resilient infrastructure.
The Capital Markets Union (CMU) 96 aims to enable new forms of funding including for
infrastructure, by bridging the information gap between investors and businesses and ensuring the flow of private capital to sustainable projects.
Through amendments to delegated acts under the Solvency II Directive 97 in 2015 and
2017, the Commission facilitated the risk-based investments of insurance companies into
92 Insurance of weather- and climate-related disaster risk: Inventory and analysis of mechanisms to support climate prevention in the EU, European Commission, 2017.
93 The study quoted under footnote 92 and a Study on risk management in EU agriculture, European Commission, Forthcoming.
94 See the EU Sendai Action Plan, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/echo/sites/echosite/files/1_en_document_travail_service_part1_v2.pdf
95 The Disaster Loss and Damage Working Group https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/partnership/Science-Policy-Interface/Disaster-Loss-and-Damage Working-Group
96 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/growth-and-investment/capital-markets-union_en
infrastructure projects. In March 2018, the Commission’s action plan on financing
sustainable growth 98 announced EU legislation 99 on a classification system for sustainable 100 economic activities, on the labelling of green financial products, on investors’ and asset managers’ duties on sustainability and transparency on risks, and on insurer’s duties to take into account their clients’ sustainability preferences when advising them. Institutional risk management policies and banks’ capital requirements would also have to consider climate risks.
Insurance and financial markets are also addressed in the adaptation preparedness scoreboard described under Action 1 above, where an indicator checks whether “adaptation is mainstreamed in insurance or alternative policy instruments, where relevant, to provide incentives for investments in risk prevention”.
More information on the role of insurance and financial services is available in section 10 of Annex VIII.
-
5.M ETHOD
The evaluation of the Strategy was based on ten evaluation questions linked to the five criteria defined by the Better Regulation Guidelines. These questions were broken down into sub-questions and developed as operational questions appropriate for stakeholder responses. An evaluation matrix describing this process is included in Appendix 4 of the evaluation support study. In addition, the analysis of the criteria built on the intervention logic represented graphically in Annex V.
The external support study collected data and provided an analysis of the evidence from the consultation activities and the literature.
Methods for gathering evidence
Evidence for the evaluation support study was gathered through a wide combination of
data sources: a literature review 101 , a targeted survey and an open public consultation 102 , interviews, workshops 103 and 4 case studies. A summary of methods used for gathering
97 Directive 2009/138/EC i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 November 2009 on the taking-up and pursuit of the business of Insurance and Reinsurance (Solvency II). The Solvency II Directive provides for coordination of prudential laws, regulations and markets for insurance and
reinsurance across EU member states, with the purpose of reducing differences and supporting an internal EU market in these products. Prudential requirements primarily address the way financial institutions are governed and their liquidity and capital reserves.
98 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Central Bank, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM(2018) 97 final i.
99 Subject to the results of a future impact assessment.
100 Sustainability understood also in terms of resilience against climate risks.
101 General literature review complemented by reviews of adaptation preparedness scoreboards for EU Member States, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) relating to adaptation for states that are not members of the EU, and of a list of EU legislation and guidance documents and guidelines where climate adaptation is currently mainstreamed, or has potential to be mainstreamed.
102 A targeted online stakeholder survey conducted in June-July 2017 and an open public consultation in 24 languages on the Commission’s EUROPA website from 7 December 2017 to 1 March 2018.
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/evaluation-eus-strategy-adaptation-climate-change_en 103 Two stakeholder workshops and an interactive exercise with the members of the Working Group on
Adaptation under the Climate Change Committee of Member States
evidence is provided in Appendix 3 of the evaluation support study and a synopsis of the consultation activities can be found in Annex II. The original plan for the consultation activities were described in the stakeholder consultation strategy 104 ; the plan was generally followed, except for some changes in the timeline.
In drafting this document, the Commission services also relied on internal data collection and on the Member States' adaptation preparedness scoreboard foreseen in the Strategy, including a horizontal assessment of Member States adaptation strategies.
Evaluation method
A significant amount of information was gathered through the consultation activities. This information was triangulated i.e. cross-checked against other evidence, and analysed to provide for as solid as possible results.
These results and subsequent recommendations, contained in the draft external report, were presented to stakeholders in the context of the Open Public Consultation and during
the 2 nd stakeholder workshop. This "reality-check" provided additional robustness to the
final results of the evaluation.
The Impact Assessment identified the situation in 2013 before the Strategy was launched. It also identified planned inputs, outputs and activities, expected results and operational objectives. It did not quantify in terms of the performance indicators what the future position would be in the absence of the Strategy, and therefore it did not prepare the ground for a quantitative counterfactual analysis. Furthermore, the impacts of the Strategy are expected to arise as a result of voluntary actions being taken by multiple actors. In this context, the evaluation had to rely as much as possible on measuring the progress in the indicators foreseen in the Impact Assessment. Thus, the method used to address the evaluation questions is a theory-based approach, comparing the current state of play to points of comparison derived from the expected results and operational objectives of the Impact Assessment. There is no possible comparison with what would have been the situation in the absence of the Strategy.
It should also be noted that the analysis has used both qualitative and quantitative data to determine the progress of the different indicators and the impact of certain actions considered in the evaluation.
Limitations and robustness of the findings
The main limitation of the evaluation was the lack of a quantified counter-factual scenario, i.e. what would have happened in the absence of the Strategy. The Impact Assessment included some statements on the expected future situation if the Strategy had not been adopted. However, due to the nature of adaptation policies, and notably the fact that measures are mostly taken at local or regional level, it would not be possible to present a robust quantitative counterfactual scenario that would only reflect the absence of EU action..
Attempts were made to develop an ad hoc counterfactual for the evaluation, but they did not provide a solid comparison tool. This is due to the broad scope of the evaluation (8
104 Stakeholder Consultation Strategy. Evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy, European Commission, 2017.
diverse and wide-ranging actions), the large amount of factors affecting implementation, the voluntary nature of the commitments under the Strategy and the lack of extensive data sets on policy outcomes.
However, the lack of counterfactual did not prevent the evaluation to be robust in its analysis and findings . The evaluation was underpinned by a large number and variety of evidence gathering methods, which provide a solid basis for drawing conclusions. The number of individual views collected on specific issues was sometimes low, because adaptation is a relatively new and marginal topic in many areas, so there are a limited number of experts in the field able to formulate opinions on technical and specialist questions. Still, the quality of the evidence collected during the evaluation support study can be considered mostly as medium to high, with some variance across the different
evidence-gathering actions. 105
Moreover, the original objectives of the Strategy focused on setting processes and procedures, while the evolving context and progress in climate adaptation strategies point to the need for effective implementation and quality adaptation strategies resulting in effective impacts on society and economy. The Strategy did not include appropriate performance indicators to measure its effectiveness in terms of societal and economic impacts and no such indicators exist currently at EU scale. This limitation has hampered the measurement of the overall impact of the Strategy’s effects, including on the different stakeholders. The evaluation did not develop ad hoc indicators since they require longterm collection of data. The EEA and also the Commission in the context of the new Multiannual Financial Framework have started some preparatory work on indicators that could be useful input to future monitoring of adaptation action (more information in section 3 of Annex VIII).
-
6.A NALYSIS AND ANSWERS TO THE EVALUATION QUESTIONS
6.1. Relevance
6.1.1. To what extent do the objectives and actions of the Strategy (still) respond to needs within the EU and at international level?
Since the adoption of the Strategy, evidence has continued to accrue that climate-related extremes are more frequent and intense in Europe: the total reported economic losses caused by climate-related extremes in Europe during the 1980–2015 period amounted to
over €433 billion 106 . Inaction would result in large economic costs, even under
conservative climate change scenarios. These and other cost estimates are detailed in Annex XIII.
Projections of impacts of climate change in Europe can vary widely, depending on the level of warming as well as socio-economic conditions that define exposure and vulnerability of our future societies. For example, in the absence of further investments in coastal adaptation, the present expected annual losses of 1.25 billion EUR due to coastal flooding is projected to increase by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude by the end of the century,
105 A detailed assessment of the quality of the evidence gathered in the evaluation support study is provided in Annex XII. All in all, there is sufficient evidence to support conclusions for the evaluation.
106 EEA Report No 15/2017, “Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe” (2017), section 4.5 p. 110.
ranging between 93 and 961 billion EUR depending on the socio-economic pathway. 107
Unfortunately, comparisons across sectors and between estimates before the strategy and today are difficult as parallel studies are currently taking place with different assumptions, scopes and timelines, and some of them are only at its initial stages.
Impacts to society from global warming will be largely connected to changes in extreme climate events due to their disproportionate rise compared to the corresponding change in climatological averages. Therefore, the Strategy’s objective to increase the EU’s climate resilience is more important than ever in order to limit the costs of unavoidable and projected climate change.
Already the current level of climate change makes it necessary to adapt. While the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal is to keep global warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, this is not matched by current commitments of the Parties (consistent with around 3°C). It is difficult to say what the 'dangerous' level of global warming may be for each region as warming is not uniform globally and impacts can vary strongly between regions. For instance, Europe generally experiences higher warming than the global average, i.e. it will experience more than 2°C of warming even if the 2°C goal is achieved. Warming over all European regions will occur, with slightly weaker warming over North-Western Europe but a more intense warming (up to
+3°C) in Northern and Eastern Europe in winter and in Southern Europe in summer 108 .
As discussed in Chapter 3, the Strategy’s relevance progressed since 2013 also as a result of new international policy developments that recognise the increased importance of adaptation at EU and global level. For instance, the Paris Agreement includes adaptation in its 'ambition cycle': in 2023 the parties will be asked to report on progress and actions on adaptation and eventually, if relevant, redefine ambition, by reviewing their strategies and policies.
The relevance of the strategy is also affected by the consequences on the EU of climate change in third countries through trade, migration, food security, ecosystems etc.
Relevance by action
Action 1 Member State strategies: Three Member States have not yet adopted adaptation strategies, and the scoreboard analysis shows that those Member States who have adopted one are mostly lagging behind on implementation and monitoring. Stakeholders agree there is a need for continued stimulus to keep the topic high on the agenda and ensure proper implementation of the national strategies.
Action 2 LIFE: In the public consultation that supported the LIFE mid-term evaluation, 96% of respondents agreed that there is a need for a specific European programme for the environment and climate action financed at EU level. 109 In its response to the mid-term evaluation, the European Committee of the Regions recommended maintaining and
107 Vousdoukas et al. 2018, Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe. Nature Climate Change 8: 776–780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4
108 Robert Vautard et al 2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 / 034006
109 Ecorys, Support for an external and independent LIFE Mid Term Evaluation Report: Final Report, Study for the European Commission, 2017.
strengthening LIFE’s sub-programme on climate action in the 2nd LIFE Multiannual
Work Programme and post-2020. 110
Action 3 Covenant of Mayors: there is a continuing need for adaptation action to be taken at sub-national and local level, also in light of recent evidence that the impacts of climate change are already being felt across cities and urban areas in Europe. As population and infrastructure are concentrated, extreme weather tends to cause more damage in urban areas, which makes cities more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Unless action is taken soon, according to some estimates the economic costs from extreme weather events to EU cities could reach over EUR 190 billion annually by 2070. 111 The stakeholder survey and interviews identified a continuing need for support for knowledge sharing and capacity building (e.g. conferences and workshops, online platforms, guidelines), as well as financial support for adaptation actions. Some stakeholders argue that other forms of support should also be put at work to help local adaptation, such as to assess impacts and vulnerability, or to establish communities of practice.
Action 4 Knowledge gaps: As outlined in Chapter 4 and Chapter 6.2 under the effectiveness criterion, progress has been made in addressing the knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy but some key gaps remain, and new gaps have appeared, so the action remains relevant.
Action 5 Climate-ADAPT: Web statistics confirm that the number of users of Climate ADAPT have increased ever since the start of monitoring in March 2013, which is in itself a sign of the platform’s relevance. Several interviewees indicated that Climate ADAPT is the place where people start looking for information, distinguishing itself from other such platforms by providing a broad overview of the state of play in a
comparative and structured way. The Climate-ADAPT draft evaluation report 112 finds
that the website succeeds in collecting and sharing relevant information in Europe by involving a wide range of information providers, citing the case studies presented in the platform as particularly relevant tools.
Action 6 ESIF / CAP / CFP, including general mainstreaming. There is a strong consensus among stakeholders that there continues to be a need to climate-proof investments supported by EU funds, research and innovation, and key vulnerable sectors such as coastal protection, energy infrastructure, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, spatial planning, transport and communication, urban development, public health and water. It is also necessary to ensure strengthening synergies and coherence with policies that share similar objectives, like disaster risk reduction/civil protection. There is a constantly renewed need to mainstream adaptation across the policy spectrum, as it is primarily a cross-sectoral matter and as such which needs to be present both in emerging new policies and in the ones that are periodically revised or are cyclical by nature.
Action 7 Infrastructure: The EEA’s latest assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 113 highlights the vulnerability of construction and buildings, as well as energy and transport infrastructure to extreme events due to high temperatures,
110 Press Release: Local leaders call for a budget increase of EU's major environment programme LIFE, European Committee of the Regions, 2017. Retrieved from: http://cor.europa.eu/en/news/Pages/Local href="http://cor.europa.eu/en/news/Pages/Local-leaders-call-for-a-budget-increase-of-EUs-major-environment-programme-LIFE.aspx">leaders-call-for-a-budget-increase-of-EUs-major-environment-programme-LIFE.aspx
111 E3G, Underfunded, underprepared, underwater? Cities at risk, 2014.
112 See footnote 7.
113 'Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016, Report No 1/2017', European Environment Agency, 2017.
increased precipitation, sea-level rise, floods, wind and storms. This is underpinned by a
2015 JRC study 114 which assessed the climate risks to critical infrastructure 115 (industry,
energy, transport, social, environment, tourism, and Information and Communication Technology infrastructure) in the EU, with current sectoral damages of EUR 3.4 billion per year projected to triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and rise to EUR 38 billion per year by the 2080s. Southern and south-eastern European countries will suffer the greatest impact. The study shows that benefits (or avoided damage) of climate-proofing critical infrastructure outweigh the costs. This all points to the continued relevance of adapting infrastructure, a conclusion on which there is consensus also among stakeholders. One of the case studies developed on the adaptation of energy infrastructure (see Case Study 4 in Annex XIV) reveals how both public and private stakeholders begin to think long-term and apply effective adaptation measures such as underground cabling.
Action 8 Insurance and finance: Most survey respondents considered that the market of insurance and other financial products for resilient investments is still under-developed, while such products are closely related to disaster risk reduction. Of weather and climate related losses in Europe from 2011-16, only 42% were insured. 116 The approach to disaster insurance, which is also a means to involve the private sector in adaptation, is very different in each EU country. Insurance companies have been reluctant to feed damage information into disaster risk models for use in public private cooperation 117 , as gathering this data requires resources and expertise, and the quality and level of detail of these data provide a stronger basis for insurance companies in optimising their business model. A third party could play an enabling role in matching the knowledge that is needed for the design of preventive measures with available loss data. The sector would thus benefit from facilitative action at the EU level.
6.1.2. How relevant is the Strategy for the different stakeholders at local, regional, national and supra-national level?
The consequences of climate change will significantly affect a wide range of the population both in number and in type, so preventive action is of general relevance, as it is perceived by stakeholders. However, the Strategy has been addressing particular sectors and levels of governance specifically, for whom there is more direct relevance.
The Strategy is relevant for Member States (Action 1), as it has acted as a stimulus to develop NASs and helped to keep adaptation high on the political agenda. The results from the open public consultation show that encouraging Member States to take action is one of the statements for which the strongest support exists among the respondents. The strategy is relevant also for capacity building and stepping up adaptation action at the regional and local levels (Action 2 and 3), Action 3 being mainly devoted to the local level, while encouraging support from the regional and national levels. As governments at regional and local levels often have fewer opportunities for funding research, it is quite
114 'Risk assessment methodologies for critical infrastructure protection. Part II: A new approach, Report EUR 27332 EN', JRC, 2015.
115 Defined as assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions.
116 NatCatSERVICE. Retrieved from: https://www.munichre.com/en/reinsurance/business/nonlife/natcatservice/index.html
117 Under strict conditions, collaborations have been established between reinsurers and EEA, and between reinsurers and the JRC.
relevant to generate and disseminate knowledge to them, for example through Climate ADAPT (Action 5). Knowledge at the supra-national level, among others on river basins and mountain ranges, can help to enhance cross-border cooperation. But research projects (Action 4) and Climate-ADAPT, as they create and disseminate knowledge, are relevant for all stakeholder groups. In particular, the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) on Climate Change, supported by H2020, continues to make use of the Strategy as one of the main drivers in its efforts to help coordinate efforts in adaptation research amongst the Member States, and beyond, through its international collaboration, coordination and support actions (e.g. SINCERE).
Climate-proofing of EU policies (Action 6) is highly relevant for the development of adaptation capacity of different sectors in the EU, such as water, agriculture and forestry sectors. Without a consistent and centralised effort across different stakeholders and levels, these sectors would experience a varying degree of readiness for the challenges of a changing climate.
The Strategy was also assessed as relevant for the private sector and businesses notably by ensuring more resilient infrastructure and promoting insurance and financial products despite disagreement from some respondents to the open public consultation (Action 7 and 8). In principle, insurance and financial products have good potential to involve the private sector in adaptation, as companies can weigh the costs of insurance against the costs of taking adaptive measures themselves.
6.2. Effectiveness
6.2.1. To what extent have the objectives been achieved during the period 2013-2018? 118
This subsection examines to what extent the objectives have been achieved within the meaning of the performance indicators established in the 2013 impact assessment. It is based on the facts and observations of Chapter 4 Baseline. While the indicators are process-oriented, in further subsections a limited analysis of the effectiveness of the actions of the Strategy in terms of results is also provided (for more information on this limitation, please refer to Chapter 5).
Looking at the period 2013 to March 2018, none of the three specific objectives can be considered as fully fulfilled, although substantial progress has been made in each. With the exception of Objective 1a, all operational objectives relate to impacts to be achieved by 2020. See Annex VI for a full description of the objectives.
Specific Objective 1 “Promoting action by Member States”
▪ Operational Objective 1a was largely fulfilled by 2017 and is on track to be achieved in 2018 with regard to all Member States having adopted NASs. Ten Member States have adopted NASs since 2013, bringing the total to 25 out of the 28 Member States. Strategies are being developed in the remaining three Member States but have not yet been adopted. Information on regional and local strategies
118 Contrarily to the scope of the original evaluation question as presented in the 2016 evaluation roadmap, the scope of the evaluation is extended to March 2018 in an effort to cover as long a period as possible.
is less readily available and requires judgement of where they are “appropriate”,
hence, the evaluation is inconclusive about their achievement.
Objective 1a does not include targets associated with the performance indicators
for number and amount of LIFE grants, so the achievement of the operational
objective with respect to this indicator cannot be determined. However, as
described in Chapter 4, there are numerous ongoing adaptation-related LIFE
projects which all involve experience transfer and can be classified as
‘lighthouse’ projects.
▪ Operational Objective 1b includes a target that, by 2020, all cities of more than 150 000 inhabitants have adopted an adaptation strategy. The figures presented in Chapter 4 show that there has been substantial but insufficient progress, with around one fourth of all EU cities (of all sizes) having adopted an adaptation strategy to date, suggesting the target may not be fully met by 2020. As regards cities of more than 150 000 inhabitants in particular, 40% are estimated to have adopted an adaptation strategy.
Specific Objective 2 “Promoting better informed decision-making”
▪ Operational Objective 2a seeks closure of all priority knowledge gaps identified in 2013. Although the knowledge base has increased substantially, none of the four priority knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy have been closed, strictly speaking. Knowledge increases and evolves but gaps may always exist. Furthermore, new knowledge gaps are emerging.
Objective 2a does not include targets associated with the performance measures for number and value of adaptation-related H2020 and JRC projects, so the achievement of the operational objective with respect to this indicator is indeterminable. However, as described in Chapter 4, numerous adaptation-related
research projects have been launched since 2013.
▪ Operational Objective 2b has been achieved in advance of the target date of 2020, as Climate-ADAPT has made information on climate change adaptation more easily accessible for decision-makers, including Member States, local authorities and firms. Targets were not set for associated performance measures for Climate ADAPT in relation to numbers of visitors, pages most visited and number of registered users, but in Chapter 4 evidence of substantial progress was presented from these respects. The performance measure assessing Climate-ADAPT’s content, databases and metadata will be fulfilled by EEA’s evaluation of Climate ADAPT, which will be published in 2018.
Specific Objective 3 “Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors”
▪ Operational Objective 3a establishes a target that by 2020, adaptation considerations have been mainstreamed in a consistent and comprehensive way in key EU policies. Significant progress has been made but there is still some way to go before mainstreaming of adaptation in key EU policies can be described as “consistent and comprehensive”.
Objective 3a includes a performance measure that there should be a list of policies and legal acts where adaptation has been mainstreamed, which has been
fulfilled by work undertaken for this evaluation (see Annex XI). Objective 3a includes a performance measure, without target, for the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) surveys, so the achievement of the operational objective with respect to this indicator is indeterminable. Besides, private organisations do not provide sufficiently detailed information in the surveys on climate adaptation action.
▪ Operational Objective 3b, on climate-proofing new major infrastructure investments by 2020, has been achieved: in the 2014-2020 programming period, approval of major projects funded by the ESIF is subject to “an analysis of the environmental impact, considering climate change adaptation and mitigation needs, and disaster resilience”.
Objective 3b includes a performance measure regarding the amount of adaptation infrastructure investments (co-) financed by EU funds and/or public financial institutions, which does not have a target, so the achievement of the operational objective with respect to this indicator cannot be determined. Evidence was presented in Chapter 4 that the key expenditure programmes likely to fund infrastructure are the ERDF and the CF. Expenditure on climate adaptation from total climate action finance reported by the EIB in 2017 suggests that financing for adaptation has not increased since 2015, an amount slightly inferior to two
years before (EUR 20.7 and EUR 0.8 billion, respectively).
▪ Objective 3b has an associated performance measure for progress on the mapping exercise by ESOs. As evidenced in Chapter 4, good progress has been achieved through the publication of a standardisers’ guide to adaptation and through the shortlisting of standards to include adaptation provisions.
As indicated in Chapter 4, there is no associated operational target or performance indicator for Action 8 on insurance and finance. The progress towards the Commission’s aim specified in the Strategy will be assessed qualitatively in the next section.
6.2.2. To what extent has each of the eight actions of the Strategy contributed to these achievements?
While each of the eight actions of the Strategy has had its specific and distinguishable impact on adaptation preparedness in the EU, it should not be underestimated that the existence of a strategy at EU level also exercised a general, intangible political drive in the relevant policy fields and at all levels of governance across the EU. The effect cannot be quantified, but stakeholder feedback confirmed its existence during the consultation.
Action 1 Member State strategies
It is difficult to establish with certainty the extent to which the Strategy has been effective in encouraging development and adoption of new NASs, as most Member States were already developing them at the time of the Impact Assessment. Other factors may have also been important, such as the Paris Agreement (discussed in Section 6.2.3 on drivers) and ex-ante conditionalities under the EU funds (in Section 6.4.1 on coherence). Nevertheless, it might be inferred that the actions under the Strategy have been effective in encouraging Member States to adopt NASs and plans, given that 25 Member States have now adopted them and the remainder are developing them. This conclusion was supported by the majority of the interviewed stakeholders, including government experts from eight Member States who argued that the Strategy played a role in ensuring increased political interest from the Member States to adopt NASs and plans, where they were not already in place, and to revise existing strategies and plans. Some stakeholders noted an increase in quality of the plans since the publication of the guidelines accompanying the Strategy.
However, there appear to be significant gaps in the effectiveness of Member States implementation of their strategies, with resources for the follow-through of commitments in some cases being reduced or withdrawn, or in other cases not identified. 119 The review of Member States NASs and plans (both adopted and in the making) in relation to the Commission’s ‘adaptation preparedness scoreboard’ suggests that:
• Most Member States have progressed on:
o Coordination (23 have horizontal coordination mechanisms involving different sectors)
o Stakeholder involvement (26 Member States) and
o Transboundary cooperation (27 Member States).
• Half or more of Member States already have access to suitable data (14), have
developed scenarios (23), and undertaken risk assessments (22), and most other
Member States are making progress in these respects. 120
• Less than half of the Member States have built up capacity to address adaptation
(14 Member States) or funding for climate resilience (9 Member States), other Member States, with few exceptions, are progressing on these issues.
• Less than half of Member States have addressed climate change in relation to many aspects of implementation and review, including consideration of climate change in disaster risk plans (9), land use planning (15), major projects (13), and national (11), sectoral (14) and sub-national (9) monitoring and reporting. As regards monitoring and reporting, only five Member States have started to develop and use a comprehensive set of process or outcome based indicators to monitor implementation of adaptation strategies and plans.
A more complete overview of the adaptation scoreboard’s indicator assessments is included in Annex IX.
Stakeholders generally feel that the Strategy has been more effective in encouraging preparatory activities, i.e. preparing the ground, assessing risks, identifying options, and less effective in promoting assessment of options, implementation and monitoring and evaluation.
Stakeholder views on the assistance provided by the Commission were mixed, with strong agreement that the Commission had provided an online platform on adaptation, methodologies (e.g. guidelines) and technical information (e.g. research), but less agreement about support to capacity building. Views were also mixed on the question whether the developed adaptation strategies responded to the expected impacts and needs, although there was a high level of agreement that the strategies have been effective in enhancing the preparedness and response capacity of Member States. Interviewees from national authorities suggested that whether Member States have actually used the Commission’s guidelines for strategies depended largely on whether the Member States in question had pre-existing adaptation strategies and governance mechanisms.
119 This conclusion is also supported by a report commissioned by the European Public Service Union “Public services and adaptation to climate change”, from September 2017, available at: https://www.epsu.org/article/epsu-feature-adaptation-climate-change
120 National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018, European Environment Agency.
Stakeholders emphasised the role of adaptation strategies in raising awareness, supporting inter-ministerial and inter-sectoral exchange, collaboration and action, and the importance of having vulnerability assessments in place.
Integration of climate change adaptation in national risk assessment and cooperation between DRR and climate change adaptation communities have not yet occurred in most of the Member States.
The scoreboard suggests that NASs were in general not effective in identifying and addressing macro-regional and cross-border risks; although to some extent European Territorial Cooperation (ETC) programmes under the ESIF were able to address this shortfall.
Research suggests 121 that the existence of national plans facilitates the adoption of plans
at the local level by acting as guidance documents, although this effect is by no means always evident, as in 2018 74% of cities across Europe still had no adaptation plan.
Action 2: LIFE funding
The LIFE Programme and its sub-programme in Climate Action have contributed to the objectives of the Strategy. Stakeholder feedback suggests that LIFE is acting as an effective catalyst, providing and disseminating solutions and best practices. The LIFE
Mid-Term Evaluation 122 suggests this is also evident in nature projects, in addition to
climate change adaptation projects.
Nevertheless, in spite of the potentially large impact of the ongoing projects through replication and transfer, the LIFE funding does not match the scale of the climate change challenge according to stakeholders. This view has been supported by the Committee Of Regions (CoR) 123 , which has recommended the continuity of the programme for the period post 2020 and a significant increase in the funds for the mitigation and adaptation projects.
The priorities of the ongoing LIFE climate change adaptation projects relate to the Strategy and are focused on vulnerable areas and sectors. According to the LIFE midterm evaluation, the two integrated projects in Denmark and Spain (see Chapter 4) can potentially aid adoption and implementation of NASs and complementary regional or local strategies (objective 1).
Since 2014, all LIFE projects include measures for dissemination of information and are required to demonstrate potential for transferability in line with the performance indicator identified by the LIFE Impact Assessment. Stakeholders agreed that the programme contributes to knowledge transfer and sharing of best practices (objective 2). However, monitoring focuses on projects individually and is thus ineffective in assessing the programme’s role in knowledge transfer and capacity-building across the EU.
The LIFE mid-term evaluation indicated that further action is needed on the facilitation of replication and the promotion of performance indicators that would allow
121 Reckien, D. F., The influence of drivers and barriers on urban adaptation and mitigation plans — An empirical analysis of European cities, PLoS ONE, 10(8): e0135597. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0135597.
122 See footnote 5
123 Opinion Factsheet: Mid-term evaluation of the Programme for the Environment and Climate Action (LIFE) 2014-2020, CDR 4126/2016, Committee of the Regions, 2017.
measurement beyond outputs in order to improve the effectiveness of the action. This is addressed in the Commission’s proposal for the new LIFE regulation under the next multiannual financial framework (2021-2027).
Action 3: Covenant of Mayors
Even though other drivers may also have been encouraging cities to adopt adaptation strategies or plans (see section 6.2.3), the importance of cities’ membership of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (Covenant) appears to have been the
strongest positive influence 124 , especially in countries where autonomous local climate plans are rare and cities are not required by national legislation to adopt such plans. 125
According to an evaluation of the Mayors Adapt initiative carried out in 2014, through consultation of several local authorities' representatives, the Covenant has been successful in securing local political commitment for adaptation beyond political election cycles. 126 The Covenant has also improved peer-to-peer information exchange, access to information about funding for adaptation and technical assistance, for example through the Urban Adaptation Support Tool, on issues such as methods for vulnerability and risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation measures.
The Covenant's common methods for monitoring and evaluating the implementation of local adaptation plans have been effective in building the technical capacity of local authorities.
While it is the cities that commit to act, the Covenant is also working on providing greater support to regional, provincial and sub-national authorities that can in turn help cities perform better.
Recently, an opinion of the CoR 127 and a resolution of the European Parliament 128 have both expressed their support for the Covenant. The Covenant has enabled to push ahead with establishing a Global Covenant of Mayors, as described in section 2 of Annex VIII.
Action 4: Knowledge gap
There was strong agreement among targeted stakeholder survey respondents to the statement that “in general, the Strategy has helped to reduce knowledge gaps on adaptation in the EU". Respondents also identified sources of knowledge supported by the EU (e.g. Climate-ADAPT, LIFE adaptation projects, EEA reports, Copernicus,
Coordinated Downscaling Experiment and JRC’s PESETA 129 ).
124 See footnote 121 125 Such as Cyprus, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Romania and Spain,
according to D. Reckien et al., (2018). How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, Journal of Cleaner Production, 26
March 2018. 126 Millieu, Mid-term evaluation of the urban adaptation initiative within the framework of the Covenant of
Mayors: Final Report, Study for the European Commission, 2014. 127 Communication from the Committee of the Regions: Towards a new EU climate change adaptation
strategy – taking an integrated approach, CDR 2430/2016. 128 European Parliament Resolution on the role of EU regions and cities in implementing the COP 21 Paris
Agreement on climate change, 27 February 2018, 2017/2006(INI). 129 Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the EU based on bottom-up Analysis
(PESETA), https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta
Interviewees noted there will always be knowledge gaps. The conclusions of JRC’s PESETA III, which will be published by the end of 2018, will help further reduce some gaps. Some of them are already available, and are included in Annex XIII. In particular, work is still needed on the benefits of adaptation and also co-benefits in other areas, not only losses avoided. The JPI Climate, an EU-wide consortium involving 20 Member States benefiting from a H2020 grant, has mapped research gaps in relation to climate services 130 . One key FP7 project for adaptation, High-End Climate Impacts and Extremes, 131 has worked on a set of global and regional views of different worlds at 1.5,
2, 4 and 6°C not only for Europe, but also for Northern Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia.
The most vulnerable European regions (e.g. Outermost Regions, Mediterranean regions,
mountains) warrant enhanced approaches. 132 Fundamental gaps also persist in the
identification of the expected impacts and vulnerability of sectors, for example the application of climate projections in disaster risk assessments. Regarding the knowledge gap on frameworks, models and tools to support decision-making, much work has been done in 39 studies, of which many have become available on the Climate-ADAPT website. 133 H2020, under its Societal Challenge 5, has funded several projects and studies on "climate change services" to address these issues. Less work has been done to close knowledge gaps associated with monitoring of adaptation: only eight EU studies have been identified and monitoring of adaptation actions still seems to be in its infancy.
Respondents also mentioned what has been useful for the uptake by policy makers of research results: the development of state-of-the-art reports on available knowledge, science-policy forums, workshops, events and web pages. However, there is normally a delay between research undertaken and its use by policy-makers to inform decisionmaking.
Action 5: Climate-ADAPT
The intended target audience of Climate-ADAPT are governmental organisations, and those who support them in the development and/or implementation of climate change adaptation strategies and actions such as research institutes. The EEA's separate evaluation of Climate-ADAPT 134 has shown that the majority of the actual users are indeed from these intended target groups. The evaluation also showed that the platform is used across all governance levels in Europe from city/local level to sub-national, national, transnational to the European level. However, some specific user groups are not yet sufficiently reached, i.e. experts at EU level and across Europe who are faced with adaptation challenges in vulnerable sectors, users from Eastern and Central European countries, as well as users less experienced on adaptation.
The EEA concludes that Climate-ADAPT has been an effective source of knowledge (including the knowledge generated through FP7, H2020, LIFE and Interreg) for feeding into a variety of policy processes. It has primarily been used to inform development of
130 The 2015 European research and innovation roadmap for climate services ( https://publications.europa.eu/fr/publication-detail/-/publication/73d73b26-4a3c-4c55-bd50-
54fd22752a39 ) refers to climate services as customised climate-related tools, products and information that will enable climate-smart, strategic decisions at various levels for a range of end-users (businesses,
the public sector, and individuals), enabling a more systemic approach to risk management. 131 https://www.helixclimate.eu/our-research/
132 https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/data-and-downloads#b_start=0 133 http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/adaptation-support-tool
134 See footnote 7
supporting documents (including case studies and impact and vulnerability assessments) but also, more directly, the development of adaptation plans and strategies, as well as decision making at all stages of the adaptation policy cycle.
It is used to identify the “state of the art” of adaptation in Europe, to develop tailor-made products for various policy processes, and as a starting point to extend searches. Hence, it has become a “first-stop shop” for adaptation information in Europe. A challenge for the future effectiveness of the platform is to identify its links and complementarities with other knowledge platforms at EU-level 135 , particularly in relation to climate services, disaster risk management, biodiversity and green infrastructure.
The dissemination and networking activities in relation to the platform brought about a steady increase in visitors since its creation.
Finally, the EEA’s evaluation identified five core content elements (EU policy; country strategies and actions; adaptation support tools; database; case studies and adaptation options) of Climate-ADAPT that should remain a focus for future developments of the platform.
The Open Public Consultation of the Strategy’s evaluation confirmed that Climate ADAPT has been an important and useful information source in climate change adaptation work.
Action 6: ESIF/CAP/CFP
The review of literature and the consultation activities indicate that the Commission’s technical guidance on how to further integrate adaptation into the CAP, Cohesion Policy and the CFP has led to progress but has not yet proved effective in promoting comprehensive and consistent mainstreaming. Indeed, the legal provisions came in late 2013 and various guidance documents were prepared and published in April 2013 in parallel with Member States preparation of their Operational Programmes and Rural Development Programmes (RDPs). Because of this parallel timing the guidance documents could not be exploited to their full potential to influence the development of the Member State Operational Programmes and RDPs. Alongside the Public
consultation, two recent studies on the mainstreaming of EU funds 136 state that adaptation
differs across EU funds:
• Adaptation seems to have been mainstreamed to a much larger scale than
mitigation in the CAP (i.e. agriculture and forestry) despite the fact that very few measures supported by the EAFRD have an explicit adaptation objective. This is to a large extent due to the tracking methodology at priority (and related focus area) level, hence including measures such as natural resource conservation/management not directly targeted at adaptation but with adaptation co-benefits. Targeted stakeholders considered that a more robust methodology and mechanisms to monitor the extent to which the CAP and its funding are supporting climate action objectives is needed.
135 For example: Copernicus Climate Services (https://climate.copernicus.eu/), Disaster Risk Knowledge Management Centre (drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu), Oppla ( https://oppla.eu ),
136 COWI. (2016). Mainstreaming of climate action into ESI Funds. Brussels: European Commission; COWI. (2017). Mainstreaming of adaptation into the ESIF 2014-2020. Brussels: European Commission.
• Under the ERDF and CF, a substantial amount of funding was directed at
adaptation-related investments. Furthermore, major projects were only approved
by the Commission if they were climate-resilient. 137 Yet, the stakeholder
consultation suggested that further work on adaptation mainstreaming is needed in order to minimize negative impacts of infrastructural projects on rivers, streams and coastal areas, by prohibiting the reduction of storage capacity of
flood plains and avoiding new risks in case of flooding.
• Compared to ERDF and CF, the focus on adaptation seems to be minor in the
EMFF and ESF, which will be discussed in section 6.2.3.
Recent mainstreaming successes in EU funds include the increase of the climate earmarking in the Commission’s proposals for the next Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-27 (increased from 20% to 25%), with more specific objectives per fund, e.g. 30% for ERDF and 37% for CF. The Commission also proposed to make adaptation spending more traceable in that framework (e.g. in the proposal for a Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plans Regulation, see discussion in section 8 of Annex VIII).
As discussed in Chapter 4 and Annex XI, the Commission has actively worked towards mainstreaming of adaptation into the policy initiatives listed in the Strategy and also beyond, with tangible results.
There are still some areas where there is scope for mainstreaming, for instance:
• Human, Plant and animal health. • Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation. • As regards DRR:
o The development of a shared science/knowledge base and of a common vocabulary, for example to support the integration of climate change scenarios in risk management plans and risk assessments.
o The communication between DRR and climate change adaptation communities.
o The integration with 'build back better' policies and actions.
• Outermost Regions 138 • International policies (trade, security)
Action 7: Infrastructure
The work of the ESOs on revised and new standards is still ongoing and has not had the chance yet to contribute to the achievement of the infrastructure resilience objective.
It is also too early to assess the impact of CEN-CENELEC’s guide for addressing climate change adaptation in standards adopted in April 2016. Initial feedback has been positive with several hundred views and downloads of the guide after its publication, supported by webinars and workshops in several countries. The guide was offered to the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) and the International Electrotechnical Commission for their possible adoption. ISO has since used several of the
137 See footnote 75. 138 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, the European
Economic and Social Committee, The Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank: A
stronger and renewed strategic partnership with the EU's outermost regions, COM(2017) 623 final i.
CEN-CENELEC guide’s approaches in drafting a new ISO guide on climate mitigation and adaptation.
The Commission’s guidance documents on ensuring more resilient infrastructure that were published alongside the Strategy have been used for, among others, designing climate resilient infrastructure investments, providing advice on guidelines to developers of projects, and integrating climate in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and EIA. Some sectors are well engaged, such as the water sector and the transport sector. Others, such as the waste sector or broadband sector, are less advanced. Still, the fact that of the 21 respondents in the targeted stakeholder survey only 8 knew about the Commission’s guidance document for project managers 139 and 2 have actually used them suggests that there is room for improvement in the awareness and actual use of these guidance documents. User feedback on the quality of the guidance was mixed: a private consultancy found them useful, while an expert providing technical assistance to project
developers in the context of JASPERS 140 considered the language was a bit too technical.
The climate proofing of major projects has demonstrated that it is quite possible for infrastructure investments to include a climate vulnerability and risk assessment, and to identify, appraise and integrate relevant adaptation solutions. The approach included technical assistance (JASPERS) to the Member States combined with guidance and training from the Commission and the EIB. Additionally, there are examples from the Member States where the same approach – based on a climate vulnerability and risk assessment – has been applied at network level to address climate hotspots (e.g. main roads network).
The guide from the EUFIWACC 141 was published in 2016 and has already triggered the development of climate resilient metrics and other methodologies that facilitate the integration of adaptation in investment decision-making, mainly by Multilateral Development Banks.
Evidence presented in Chapter 4 shows that the level of financing for adaptation infrastructure by public financial institutions has remained steady following the publication of the Strategy in 2013. The long lead time for project finance would suggest that more time is necessary for immediate impact to be visible.
Action 8: Insurance and finance
The 2017 study issued by the Commission has provided an overview of successful cases, practices, general principles and recommendations of managing climate risk in insurance. 142
However, Action 8 of the Strategy has not directly resulted in increased market penetration of natural disaster insurance, but improved overall resilience and implication
139 See footnote 86. 140 JASPERS: Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions, European Commission, EIB and
EBRD, 2018. Retrieved from: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/special-supportinstruments/jaspers/
141 Integrating Climate Change Information and Adaptation in Project Development: Emerging Experience from Practitioners, EUFIWACC, 2016. http://www.eib.org/attachments/press/integrating-climate href="http://www.eib.org/attachments/press/integrating-climate-change-adaptation-in-project-development.pdf">change-adaptation-in-project-development.pdf
142 See footnote 92
of the insurance sector in climate risk management may indirectly enhance market access.
The study resulted in a better understanding of the potential of risk-based insurance pricing. However, to unleash this potential, significant regulatory changes in capital requirements, solvency and insurance distribution would be necessary, and this work is still in an early stage of development. The promotion of a market for disaster risk insurance may have led to the greater use of financial products, and internalisation of climate costs, but it is not possible to determine how important the contribution of the Strategy has been.
Some stakeholders, like the Federation of European Risk Management Associations
(FERMA) 143 said they were not aware of follow-up on the Commission’s side since the
Green Paper on Insurance. Stakeholders had in general mixed views on how effective the Commission’s activities have been to promote insurance and other financial products for resilient investment and business decisions.
The Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth, described in Chapter 4, was adopted in March 2018, and it is equally relevant for the Commission’s aim to use the potential of financial products for risk management and resilience in investment and business decisions. Even more recently, in May 2018, the Commission has followed up with three concrete proposals: a unified EU classification system of sustainable economic activities ('taxonomy'), disclosure requirements on how institutional investors integrate environmental, social and governance in their risk processes and, finally, a new category of benchmarks to compare the carbon footprint of investments. A technical expert group set up by the Commission is now dealing with four topics linked to the Action Plan, (taxonomy, low carbon benchmarks, an EU green bonds standard and climate-related disclosures). However, as the Action Plan was only adopted in March 2018, it is too early to judge its effectiveness in promoting the aim. The initiative is planned to bring forward further legal proposals until the 2nd half of 2019 and implementation of some of the measures will hopefully start as of 2020.
6.2.3. What drivers and barriers (expected or unexpected) contributed to or stood in the way of implementation of the EU Adaptation
Strategy and how did they affect it?
Action 1: Member State strategies
Drivers:
• experience of extreme weather events; • knowledge of economic, environmental and social costs of inaction (appears to
have less influence than experience of climate impacts);
• integration of adaptation and mitigation; • the establishment of the global adaptation goal by the Paris Agreement; • Starting from 2007, LIFE funding included projects to turn adaptation strategies
into plans at the national and sub-national levels, such as for Cyprus, completed in April 2017. They acted as drivers for the adoption and implementation of
strategies even prior to the publication of the Strategy in 2013.
143 See for example FERMA. The association represents 22 member associations in 21 countries, with 4800 risk managers ( https://www.m.eu/).
Barriers:
• The majority of the respondents to the open public consultation agreed that
Member States tend to provide reactive response to climate threats, instead of
more long-term, proactive planning.
• The landscape in terms of monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the
national strategies is heterogeneous and incomplete at EU and Member State
level. The issue is analysed further in section 3 of Annex VIII.
Action 2: LIFE
Drivers
A tripling of the budget for Climate Action under LIFE (25%, i.e. EUR 864 million) compared to the LIFE+ Programme in 2007-2013.
Barriers:
The LIFE mid-term evaluation has highlighted that integrated projects are complex
and need public-private partnership models or grant funding to be viable.
With regard to the Natural Capital Financing Facility (NCFF), key barriers appear to
be:
• The scarcity of affordable finance for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises
(SMEs);
• Low or risky profitability of projects. It has taken time for the EIB, investors and
project promoters to understand how adaptation projects such as flood defences or urban spaces can generate revenue or cost savings from goods that are freely available for people to use. The mid-term evaluation suggests this could be an area where support through the NCFF instrument in combination with LIFE
grants for integrated projects or ERDF grants would merit further investigation;
• From the perspective of the EIB, lack of technical assistance in developing viable
business models for complex innovative projects may be a barrier to the provision of loans by the NCCF. Therefore, the EIB continues to build its capacity to support climate change adaptation, including through providing technical
assistance for project development under the NCFF support facility.
Stakeholders noted that:
• The complexities of applying for applying for LIFE funding may be a substantial
barrier to its uptake;
• The funds made available for adaptation were still far from what would be
needed, and in particular compared to the support available under the regional funds. There is insufficient public and private finance to leverage with LIFE
funding.
Action 3: Covenant of Mayors
Drivers:
• According to research 144 , while membership of the Covenant of Mayors has the
highest correlation with the availability of local adaptation plans, membership of other climate and sustainability city networks (such as the International Council
for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), C40 145 ) as well as adaptive capacity 146 and Gross Domestic Product GDP per capita also correlate positively.
Cities’ current capacity to engage in climate actions was a more important driver of adaptation planning than anticipated climate change impacts and vulnerabilities. Adaptive capacity was most strongly associated with GDP per capita, which was in turn significantly lower in cities at high risk of climate change impacts. Nevertheless, the stakeholder survey suggests that knowledge of
the costs of inaction may still have a greater influence on decision makers at subnational or local level than at a national level. This in turn suggests that costbenefit analyses may be more beneficial when they are relevant to local decisions;
• The larger the city gets, the more often they have an autonomous adaptation plan; 147
• The presence of national regulation has a significant impact on local climate planning. In countries where local climate plans are compulsory 148 there are 5 times more cities with adaptation plans. 149
Stakeholders noted that:
• The adoption of a NAS or plan often catalyses action at a subnational or local
level;
• Several adaptation-related EU or national projects have helped to foster local adaptation 150 ;
• The experience of extreme weather events also acted as a catalyst.
144 See footnote 121 145 www.iclei.org ; www.c40.org
146 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptive capacity as “a system's ability to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences”. See McCarthy, J.J. et al., (2001). Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
147 Reckien et al., (2018). How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, Journal of Cleaner Production, 26 March 2018.
148 Denmark, France, Slovakia and the United Kingdom 149 Even in countries where local adaptation plans are compulsory, not all cities have had the time to
comply with this obligation. See Reckien et al., (2018). How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, Journal of Cleaner
Production, 26 March 2018. 150 Future Cities, http://www.future-cities.eu/ ; Ramses, http://www.ramses-cities.eu/ ; BASE, http://base
href="http://base-adaptation.eu/">adaptation.eu/ ; TURAS, http://www.turas-cities.org/ ; SEAP-Alps, http://seap-alps.eu/hp2/Home.htm
Barriers:
A report on the Mayors Adapt initiative identified the following barriers 151 :
• Adopted urban and local adaptation strategies and plans are generally not shared,
which reduces the transfer of best practice;
• Cities working on adaptation do not always become members of adaptation
initiatives, as they may perceive that a need for additional reporting outweighs potential benefits. Encouraging support from national public bodies such as ministries or national energy agencies (the so-called National Coordinators,
within the Covenant) will, therefore, be crucial;
• Limited resources meant materials and tools could only be made available in
English, which created language barriers.
Stakeholders noted the existence of the following barriers:
• Insufficient financial resources; • The challenge of translating results of cost-benefit analyses to a local level; • Lack of awareness and relevant technical expertise among staff of local
authorities;
• Uncertainties in climate change projections, which would have to be further
downscaled to be useful at the local level.
Action 4: Knowledge gaps
Drivers:
The majority of respondents to the targeted stakeholder survey agreed that a range of other research activities supported at national or local level, not directly related to the Strategy, have also helped to address key knowledge gaps. 152
Barriers:
• Institutional barriers – The way in which themes are separated and structured
within the Commission complicate the joint design of research and innovation programmes, which has meant some knowledge gaps have not yet been sufficiently addressed, e.g. in relation to health and climate change, a thematic
area relevant to all four knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy;
• Lack of interest in some Member States, for whom climate change adaptation is
not a political priority. For example, there are large differences among Member States in the number of proposals on climate change submitted in the context of
H2020;
151 Sarah Hendel-Blackford et al., (2017). Implementation of the urban adaptation initiative [Mayors Adapt] within the framework of the ‘Covenant of Mayors’, 12 May 2017, unpublished, available on request.
152 For example, in the Netherlands there have been recent efforts to enhance knowledge on water resources, including water security issues with respect to increases in water scarcity, drought and flood risk, and increasing water temperatures affecting water quality and biodiversity. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2018-the-geography-of-future-waterchallenges-2920.pdf
• Insufficient interactions between scientists and practitioners – adaptation is still
seen as a science-led issue. In the EU15, formal mechanisms for interaction
between scientists and practitioners exist, less so in the rest of the EU;
• Access to data – Member States either do not collect data on past losses, are
reluctant to share it, or make data difficult to compare due to methodological differences. The lack of data was perceived in the targeted stakeholder survey as a
serious barrier to assess vulnerability and potential impacts;
• A need for greater cooperation between policymakers across Member States – by
contrast, researchers are generally willing to cooperate and work together. Related points made by respondents to the targeted stakeholder survey were that Member States have different historical backgrounds and natural resources and
that there is a lack of integrated approaches and methodologies.
Stakeholders also highlighted the following barriers:
• Researchers struggle to translate their research into results that can be used by
decision makers and non-specialists. In particular, it is challenging to convey and
manage uncertainty;
• Access to research funding at national level – direct research is not eligible for
funding by the LIFE programme and is limited to H2020, which (apart from the European Research Council) is focused on large projects with partners from different Member States. It may be difficult to secure funding for country-specific
research;
• The complexities of combining adaptation across sectors and with mitigation are
challenging;
• Sectoral or local decision-makers do not know where to find relevant research
results unless they have been involved in its development.
Action 5: Climate-ADAPT
The EEA 153 , who maintains the Climate-ADAPT website, identified the following
drivers and barriers.
Drivers:
• Increasing interest from politicians and practitioners in adaptation; • The increasing importance of adaptation for the international policy agenda.
Barriers:
• Difficulty in engaging Commission services which could contribute to the
website development and dissemination other than DG CLIMA –The establishment of an advisory group for Climate-ADAPT is a positive step but came only in 2016, whereas the platform started in 2012. The various new thematic platforms launched in the EU 154 need to be coordinated with the development of existing platforms, including the Biodiversity Information
153 See footnote 7. 154 E.g. On green infrastructure and nature-based solutions
System for Europe, Water Information System for Europe and the Disaster Risk Knowledge Management Centre;
• Evolution of the Covenant of Mayors initiative – The launch of Mayors Adapt in
2014 and the subsequent merger with the Covenant of Mayors initiative, as well as extension of the latter into a global initiative in 2016, has led to difficulties in Climate-ADAPT implementing the specific Information Technology needs of the related adaptation support tool and provision of information on cities’ actions in
collaboration with the Mayors Adapt;
• Limited annual resources for maintaining the platform. 155
Action 6: ESIF / CAP / CFP
Drivers:
EU level:
• The establishment of the 20% climate mainstreaming target and the development
of a climate expenditure tracking methodology, even if concerns were raised that mainstreaming in all projects and all sectors may not have been fully
implemented by managing authorities at investment levels; 156 • The connections made between adaptation, risk prevention and civil protection in
Cohesion policy, which have helped to raise awareness among more actors in the
Member States;
• The obligation in the CPR for the Commission to approve major projects only if
they are climate resilient;
• The revision of the EIA Directive in 2014 imposing climate vulnerability
assessments of projects where relevant. The transposition deadline for this Directive was 16 May 2017.
National level:
• NASs; • Extreme weather events, floods and forest fires.
Barriers:
• Many adaptation measures need to be applied at the local and regional level, and
concern a multitude of actions that cannot be summarised in one performance indicator. As such, it is much more difficult to establish high-level political
targets for adaptation than for mitigation;
155 One project manager, other staff within EEA’s Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Group for a limited amount of their time, one person in information technology, and EUR 200 000 annually on content development through the European Topic Centre on Climate Change impacts, vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA). In addition, The Commission has provided various contracts to support dissemination and use of Climate-ADAPT, as well as for development of functionalities through information technology contracts.
156 Stakeholder workshop organised under the Commission’s service contract on “Climate mainstreaming in the EU Budget: preparing for the next MFF”. For further details, see: Ricardo, IEEP, Trinomics, and Alterra. Study to support the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy, Ricardo/ED62885 Final Report, Study for the European Commission, 2018
• The lack of focus on adaptation and of relevant targets within the Europe 2020 Strategy 157 has made it difficult to drive adaptation actions at the same level as for
mitigation;
• ESF and EMFF do not specifically address TO5 (“Promoting climate change
adaptation, risk prevention and management”) in spite of impacts on vulnerable population, employment and fish stocks. The lack of climate integration in the EMFF and ESF was also emphasised by the European Court of Auditors (ECA), and acknowledged by the Commission in its answer (while considering the different potential contributions of each of the funds according to its primary
missions) 158 . • There is a knowledge gap on spill-over effects from third countries, the
understanding of which would be a first step towards considering effective mainstreaming of adaptation into the EU’s trade policy (see also section 4 in
Annex VIII and Case Study 2 in Annex XIV).
Stakeholders in the energy, transport and construction sectors identified the following
barriers:
• Uncertainties relating to climate impacts and extreme events (frequency and
magnitude);
• Need for climate proofing standards; • No legal obligation to consider climate risk (or very limited).
They were joined by other vulnerable sectors (agriculture, forestry, fisheries) in
pointing to:
• The lack of collaboration between sectors. In one of the case studies developed
for this evaluation (see Case Study 1 in Annex XIV), stakeholders in the fight against forest fires identified a need to further enhance coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction across all levels of governance
(global, European, national levels);
• Insufficient funding.
Action 7: Infrastructure
Drivers:
• The obligation in the ESIF CPR for the Commission to approve major projects 159
only if they are climate resilient;
• The revision of the EIA directive imposing climate vulnerability assessments of
projects where relevant;
158 For instance, the ESF contributes indirectly to this thematic objective through its own objectives:
promoting employment and social inclusion, investing in education and training and enhancing institutional capacity of public authorities and stakeholders and efficient public administration.
159 A major project has a total eligible cost exceeding EUR 50 million (and EUR 75 million for transport projects) ( https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/guidances/climate-change-and-major-projects ). The Commission shall approve such projects only if it is accompanied by “an analysis of the environmental impact, considering climate change adaptation and mitigation needs, and disaster resilience”.
• The involvement of some European cities in two non-EU initiatives, ‘100 resilient cities’ 160 initiative and the ‘Making Cities Resilient’ 161 campaign;
• The EIB’s requirements set out in the Bank’s Environmental and Social Handbook 162 which all projects must fulfil to secure finance. The Handbook
provides that proposed projects undergo a climate vulnerability assessment and
apply adaptation measures to ensure the sustainability of the project if necessary.
Barriers:
• The translation of adaptation expertise into local languages is needed for
stakeholders in the private sector;
• Apart from major projects, other EU-funded infrastructure projects under shared
management are not subject to such prior approval by the Commission.
Stakeholders from the energy, transport and building/construction sector listed:
• lack of awareness; • lack of standards/guidelines; • lack of data and the degree of uncertainty in impacts; • a knowledge gap in the private sector between high-level projections and more
specific information needs to understand the risks.
Action 8: Insurance and finance
This section is based on the views of two international organisations in the insurance
sector 163 as well as on expertise available to the Commission services.
Drivers:
• The presence of insurance pools and systems controlled by the state, which
affects demand on the part of industry;
• The maturity of natural disaster insurance markets. In some Member States (e.g.
France, United Kingdom) the market is mature, as the countries have historically dealt with these issues, while in other European countries relevant insurance
products have only been introduced more recently;
• Cost-effective insurance seems to be facilitated by a tradition of collaboration
between public and private sector risk managers, in some cases shaped by some
form of public reinsurance support for catastrophic losses;
• Under the Cohesion Policy, national and/or regional risk assessments for disaster
management (including in relation to climate risks) are a precondition for
funding 164 . Where relevant, there is a requirement to consider the NASs. In
particular, the EU Solidarity Fund specifies that payments are limited to non
160 http://www.100resilientcities.org/ 161 https://www.unisdr.org/we/campaign/cities 162 European Investment Bank, Environmental and Social Handbook, 2013. 163 Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA, see footnote 143) and the Geneva
Association, an international think tank of the insurance industry (www.genevaassociation.org).
164 With the exception of the European Social Fund.
insurable damages 165 . This way, EU disaster risk management incentivizes risk
reduction;
• In the promotion of a market for disaster risk insurance, other financial
mechanisms may also act as drivers, for example, the regulation in France
obliging banks to disclose climate risks associated with their assets.
Barriers:
• A lack of coherence between national insurance markets, which makes a simple
approach to integrate insurance in disaster risk reduction and adaptation
challenging; 166 • Difficulty to compare market penetration rates among Member States, as data
collection is not standardised, and especially data related to commercial activities is often unavailable;
• There is low general awareness of climate risks; • Insufficient reliance on public-private partnerships where governments’ risk
prevention and response can benefit from the insurance sector’s knowledge of
risks;
• Disaster risk management and climate adaptation are mostly dealt with in
different ministries in the Member States;
• Member States often focus on extreme weather events when they happen but are
not necessarily planning ahead. Risk assessments usually only span 2-5 years while climate projections are longer term. Research projects modelling short- to mid-term climate change could help Member States and insurers to link disaster
risk strategies to climate change adaptation;
• Insurance risk models are traditionally based on historic trends of increase of
insured and non-insured losses related to climate events, while they lack welldeveloped scenarios including future increases in damage;
• To date, insurance companies have been reluctant to structurally share detailed
information. This problem could be overcome by appointing a third party playing an enabling role in designing insurance and risk transfer products that are capable
of addressing climate related risk transfer;
• To date, natural disasters have been covered by annual insurance contracts, while
insurers should seek to explore provision of longer-term contracts instead of
annual ones;
• To date, there is no clear classification or typology of investments that contribute
to adaptation to climate change;
• The profitability of adaptation-related projects is low or risky and there is a lack
of technical assistance to such projects (see discussion under Action 2 above).
165 Regulation (EU) No 661/2014 i. The EU Solidarity Fund specifies in its article 3.3: Payments from the
Fund are limited to financing measures alleviating non-insurable damage and shall be recovered if the cost of repairing the damage is subsequently met by a third party.
166 Three broad types of insurance markets exist in Europe (voluntary, semi-voluntary and mandatory). Depending on how risks of extreme weather events were historically reflected in national insurance markets, insurance can serve two main types of societal objectives: (1) widespread coverage at a low premium, and (2) incentivising stakeholders to manage their own risk. This variation has resulted in contrasting penetration rates of the three broad insurance market types; the market penetration is not high for mandatory insurance markets, for example.
6.2.4. What effects has the Strategy produced so far for different
stakeholders, e.g. according to socio-economic background and
vulnerability?
The Strategy’s objectives and associated actions are directly relevant to Commission services, Member State authorities, regional and local authorities, researchers, and private decision makers. The same is true of the Impact Assessment's operational objectives and performance measures, which did not aim to measure the Strategy’s societal impacts. This question, therefore, extends beyond the normal scope of the evaluation.
The targeted stakeholder survey elicited too low a response to inform any meaningful differentiation of the Strategy’s effects on different stakeholders. The public consultation questionnaire led to a higher response; however, it still includes answers from only 217 private individuals from 22 Member States. This is too small a sample for drawing
societal conclusions. 167
The actions taken by the stakeholders directly targeted by the Strategy are expected to exercise a multiplier effect (as explained in the Intervention Logic section of Chapter 2) and thus result in wide-ranging indirect impacts across society. The Strategy foresees that adaptation action will bring new market opportunities, jobs and benefits in such sectors as agricultural technologies, ecosystem management, construction, water management and insurance. For example, mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in the CAP by policy and decision makers will provide benefits to farmers through reducing climate sensitivities and increasing their adaptive capacities to cope with climate change.
Appropriate performance indicators would be necessary to measure specific impacts on stakeholders or sectors. They would also need to be monitored over a longer period of time than the 5 years since the adoption of the Strategy, because most of the effects envisaged by the Strategy are longer-term. While the cohesion policy funds under the 2014-2020 MFF already include indicators on e.g. the number of people protected from floods and forest fires, the time lag effect with regard to reporting does not allow drawing meaningful conclusions on impacts. Similarly, at the time of the mid-term evaluation of other programmes such LIFE or H2020 that this evaluation looked at, final results from implemented projects were not yet available, and any figures in those evaluations were based on estimated results from projects in their inception phase. After the ESIF funded projects of the current multiannual financial period come to an end, it will be possible to aggregate some societal indicators. Still, a more consistent analysis with a wider scope will be needed to effectively map the socio-economic impacts of adaptation policies.
167 Also, compared to citizens contacted randomly for a survey like Eurobarometer, a significant part of the individuals having voluntarily chosen to fill in the public consultation questionnaire likely did so because of an interest in the topic, which means that the sample may not be representative of the EU population’s average knowledge and interest in climate adaptation.
6.3. Efficiency
6.3.1. How adequate were the resources for the overall implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy and how proportionate were those
resources across its eight actions?
Administrative costs directly resulting from the Strategy are low and mostly limited to the Commission 168 , with notable exception of funding programmes that are co-financed by other (e.g. national) entities. Costs for other stakeholders resulting from the Strategy are voluntary in the majority of cases and linked to access to EU funds.
A summary of the resources spent on implementation with a focus on the administrative costs of the actions of the Strategy is presented in the table in section 11 of Annex VIII. It does not include costs voluntarily incurred by stakeholders to benefit from instruments under the umbrella of the Strategy (such as LIFE, H2020, ESIF/CAP/CFP).
For Actions 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8 the costs have been limited to preparing guidance, maintaining web portals, covering the human resources costs for coordination (such as for the outsourced Covenant of Mayors) and the organisation of conferences. Much of the work, such as mainstreaming into other policy areas, was carried out as part of the Commission’s core activity (e.g. meeting with Member State experts in the framework of expert groups on adaptation or Standing forestry committee). In these cases, due to the leverage effect, the actions can be considered as highly cost-efficient.
Actions 2 (LIFE) and 4 (mainly H2020) are making direct use of funding programmes where the costs of implementation of the strategy were higher because of the financing of demonstration and research projects.
Overall, we can conclude that the benefits linked to the Strategy (described in detail in Chapter 6.2) are tangible and are achieved at low costs thanks to the multiplier effects of its actions in terms of guidance, coordination, dissemination, demonstration, mainstreaming into other policies and funds. However, most of the operational objectives of the Strategy have targets fixed for 2020, while the funding programmes used under some actions are multi-annual and subject to their own evaluation processes. This results in difficulty at this point in time to judge the efficiency of resource use in the different actions of the Strategy.
Some specific observations can be made on the efficiency of selected Actions.
Action 1 Member States: The cost of developing the guidance for the Member States on adaptation strategies was negligible compared to the fact that several Member States highlighted the usefulness of the guidance and its political importance in stimulating adaptation policy. Although the exact role of the Strategy is unclear, being one of multiple drivers, the increased number of strategies adopted and low costs point to a costefficient use of resources.
Action 2 LIFE: The LIFE mid-term evaluation estimated that for the entire LIFE Programme, including the adaptation priority area under the Climate Action subprogramme, the anticipated results of LIFE projects would have a societal benefit of
168 In this section, of the costs incurred by the Commission, only those are considered that were estimated in the 2013 impact assessment. Otherwise, running EU adaptation policy is part of the core business of the Commission and as such is not monetised.
EUR 1.7 billion, which was four times the overall LIFE budget for 2014. The LIFE midterm evaluation however underlined that it is premature to determine whether the LIFE programme provides value for money at an early stage of implementation, basing their analysis on a series of projects selected under the 2014 calls for proposals. Moreover, the external study supporting the mid-term evaluation has concluded that the LIFE management structure appears to be less costly than the management structure of other EU-funded programmes.
Action 3 Covenant of Mayors: The annual resource commitments from the Commission are relatively low and appear to be adequate and efficiently used, given the increasing number of cities committing to the adaptation aspects of the Covenant of Mayors.
Action 4 Knowledge gaps: As none of the knowledge gaps identified in 2013 have been fully bridged, it is too early to more precisely estimate the adequacy of resources regarding bridging knowledge gaps. Nevertheless, stakeholders agreed that the Strategy has helped to reduce knowledge gaps on adaptation in the EU. The majority of funds were channelled through H2020, which was subject to an in-depth interim evaluation in May 2017; that interim evaluation concluded the research framework programme is in general efficient. 169
For Action 5 Climate-ADAPT: The recorded growth in information materials on Climate-ADAPT and visitor numbers in the last years suggest that the resources are having a positive impact. Further collaboration with Commission Services would help to improve overall efficiency in how knowledge inputs are collated on Climate-ADAPT. Overall, resources appear to be adequate at present but, to continue to grow the Climate ADAPT user base and accommodate the ever-growing volume of content, resources may need to increase in future, even if greater efficiency in collation can be achieved.
6.3.2. How do the different stakeholders view the monitoring of the implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy? Which aspects are perceived as an unnecessary burden, if any, and to what extent?
The open public consultation also tested a preliminary conclusion that the monitoring and administrative burden of the Strategy was very light. When asked, 65% of respondents were neutral or undecided, and most of the remainder agreed it was very light. It is difficult to judge whether the non-agreeing respondents were referring to administrative burden directly stemming from the Strategy (such as reporting requirements under LIFE projects) or to burden imposed by the mainstreaming into EU funds whose use has to be monitored anyway under the ESIF framework.
In any case, no positive evidence of unnecessary burden was found. The ECA noted that there is a lack of adaptation-related indicators and that monitoring and audit of adaptation actions is both more difficult and carried out far less than for mitigation. 170 171
169 Commission Staff Working Document: In-Depth Interim Evaluation of Horizon 2020, SWD(2017) 220 final. And: Commission Staff Working Document: Executive Summary of the Interim Evaluation of Horizon 2020, SWD(2017) 222 final.
170 'Spending at least one euro in every five from the EU budget on climate action: ambitious work underway, but at serious risk of falling short', European Court of Auditors, 2016.
171 'Landscape review. EU action on energy and climate change', European Court of Auditors, 2017.
The monitoring activities related to Action 2 LIFE, Action 4 Knowledge gaps (H2020) and Action 6 ESIF/CAP/CFP are largely common to the respective support programmes they are part of. Only any adaptation-specific issues are mentioned below. Actions 5, 7 and 8 have no monitoring carried out by stakeholders.
Action 1 Member State strategies - Outside the scope of the Strategy, the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 172 (Art. 15) obliges Member States to report to the Commission on their ‘national adaptation planning and strategies, outlining their implemented or planned actions to facilitate adaptation to climate change’ by 2015 and every 4 years thereafter. This is a strong legal obligation on reporting, but it does not stem from the Strategy itself. This information is published on the country pages of Climate-ADAPT where Member States can provide interim voluntary updates. It serves as a source of information for the Commission’s monitoring of the implementation of Action 1 primarily through the adaptation scoreboard. This is a document created and maintained by the Commission, Member States are only asked to comment on its draft versions, which represents a light monitoring and reporting burden.
For Action 3, the monitoring of adaptation under the Covenant of Mayors has resulted in costs being incurred by the managing office (funded by the Commission), by JRC of the European Commission and by the cities themselves (voluntarily). The Covenant of Mayors requires signatories to submit a progress report monitoring implementation every two years following submission of their action plan. The template for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans (SECAP) contains an adaptation scoreboard that enables local authorities to conduct a self-assessment of their adaptation status. Involvement in the Covenant of Mayors is voluntary and therefore does not impose mandatory administrative burden.
Under Action 6 ESIF/CAP/CFP, managing authorities are required to provide financial information to the Commission on the amount of allocations and spending for different types of investments (i.e. categories of intervention), each of which has specific climaterelated
weighting. The methodology 173 for this differs between the ERDF/CF, EAFRD
and EMFF. The mainstreaming methodology for the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) is defined in another regulation. The methodology currently does not fully differentiate between allocations for climate mitigation and adaptation (it provides detailed view of the different categories of intervention and their climate relevance but there is no explicit split whether these are related to climate adaptation or mitigation as many times measures effecting mitigation also have a positive impact on adaptation).
Many measures that are good for mitigation also entail co-benefit for adaptation and vice-versa. Hence an identification of measures exclusively supporting mitigation or adaptation objectives would neither be desirable nor feasible. This however does not prevent from tracking expenditures supportive of mitigation and adaptation objectives separately, even if a certain proportion of such expenditures is then counted twice.
Adaptation activities by private organisations reported to the CDP do not provide sufficiently detailed information on climate adaptation action, hence, it would be valuable to develop a more relevant indicator to monitor adaptation mainstreaming by businesses.
172 Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013.
173 Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 215/2014 i of 7 March 2014.
6.4. Coherence
6.4.1. How well does the Adaptation Strategy fit together with other relevant EU legislation and policies, or similar initiatives at
international, national or regional level? Are there any gaps or inconsistencies between policies? Are there components to be further developed or added to increase coherence of actions?
Coherence with other EU policies and initiatives
The array of impacts of a changing climate across all areas of human activity, and across all policy areas, means that it requires a cross cutting and multi-sectoral approach. Mainstreaming adaptation into other policy areas is a major tool in adaptation policy, and by definition is aimed at ensuring coherence. One of the Strategy objectives is the climate-proofing of vulnerable sectors, and most of its actions pursue the delivery of adaptation in other policy instruments and sectors.
Table 6-1 – Key areas of synergy between adaptation and other EU policies
Adaptation action Other EU policy Observed synergy
Long-term prevention
Action 1 – Member State Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness scoreboard and
strategies Civil Protection indicators Active coordination of the two
policies European Urban Water Agenda Common objectives European Green Leaf and Green
Action 3 – Covenant of Mayors Capital Awards Common objectives
Disaster Risk Reduction Common indicators (urban level) Urban Agenda of the EU Climate Adaptation Partnership Commitment for 20% climate
Action 6 – Climate-proofing EU EU budget and funding spending (but issues with funds programmes tracking adaptation separately
and trade-offs)
Action 7 – Resilient TEN (Trans-European Networks)
infrastructure Energy and transport Guidelines have adaptation provisions
Further information on these areas of synergy is provided in section 12 of Annex VIII.
Coherence with international policies and initiatives
Coherence with action at the international level was discussed in Chapter 3.
Coherence with national and regional policies and initiatives
Coherence with national priorities needs to address both the wide range of different situations and priorities among the 28 Member States, and to recognise the Commission’s lower level of influence in areas of policy without detailed EU legislation. The design of the Strategy clearly helps to avoid incoherence in the sense of conflict between legal requirements, as it relies on voluntary measures at national and subnational level, supported by guidance for such measures and a monitoring of progress by the Commission.
Stakeholders participating in a break-out session of the first workshop in April 2017 noted that national-level coherence had in part been facilitated by the mainstreaming of adaptation in EU policy in a range of sectors and that sectoral coherence benefited from an EU-wide approach.
The Commission’s guidance on the preparation of NASs, and the adaptation scoreboard developed under Action 1, include several areas which reflect on the level of coherence within national and sub-national policies, but also in transboundary issues. This guidance is coherent with the efforts needed at national level for more coordination between adaptation and other policy areas, and stakeholders suggest that the Strategy has had a helpful impact on improving this coordination.
Assessing coherence at sub-national level is more complicated. The Covenant of Mayors initiative to some extent helps to overcome this complexity, although its coverage is not yet sufficiently wide to ensure coherence of action at local level.
The lack of coordination within Member States suggests that there is a need for further action to help administrations overcome behavioural and other barriers to coordination.
One further area of added value stems from the positive reinforcement of national strategies through cross-border or transnational cooperation by simultaneous implementation of adaptation policies in neighbouring countries. An example is in the
EU Strategy for the Danube Region (EUSDR) 174 . The specific case study on the EUSDR
(see Case Study 3 in Annex XIV) reveals how shared biophysical climate risks can prompt informal and lasting cooperation between administrations, without institutional or financial burdens. The EUSDR helped participating countries identify and respond to transboundary adaptation challenges, particularly through improved dialogue and exchange of information.
Internal coherence
There is a strong evidence of coherence between several actions within the Strategy. Action 5 (Climate-ADAPT) is meant to present information on adaptation action in the EU, it also offers information linked to several other actions, such as Action 4 on knowledge gaps and Action 3 on the Covenant of Mayors. Since 2007, nine LIFE projects under Action 2 have supported the development of climate adaptation strategies or plans under Action 1 (total budget: EUR 16 million). The coherence between efforts under Action 6, through the use of ex ante conditionalities in the ESIF and the encouragement of NASs under Action 1 has already been noted. The focus on climateproofing of major projects is building on the objectives of both Cohesion Policy (Action 6) and resilient infrastructure (Action 7). Similarly, the development of risk management tools under the CAP 2014-2020 and the foreseen emphasis announced in the Communication on the Future of Food and Farming 175 is coherent with the broader insurance objective of Action 8.
The implementation of Action 4 has increased the rate of development of climate services that identify and quantify climate risks and impacts. The Copernicus Climate
174 http://www.danube-region.eu/ 175 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European
Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: The Future of Food and Farming, COM(2017) 713 final i.
Change Services (C3S) is one such recently introduced service, which in synergy with Action 8, can usefully complement the insurance industry’s expertise. In recent years, the insurance industry has also started to integrate geo-location and weather projections into their underwriting of risks.
A more comprehensive identification of links between actions could have improved coherence even further. There might have been greater coherence had there been more centralised management of the 20% climate mainstreaming target for the 2014-2020 EU budget with greater separate attention to adaptation, as recommended by the ECA in 2016. 176
6.5. EU added value
6.5.1. What is the added value of addressing climate adaptation at EU level, in addition to the vertical and horizontal cooperation at
national level?
The Strategy has proved effective in making significant progress towards its objectives up to 2020. It has generated added value, while the right of initiative remained at the appropriate levels of governance, in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity.
There appears to be less added value where action was already underway prior to the Strategy, although most elements of the Strategy appear to add at least some value, compared with horizontal and vertical actions at Member State level.
The clearest added value appears to be in areas where the EU is encouraging identification and bridging of knowledge gaps and EU wide research (Objective 2 – Actions 4 and 5, and also Action 2), and in areas where the EU is responsible for integrating adaptation into its own policies (Objective 3 – Action 6, obviously, as no other entity than the EU could do this). Through climate mainstreaming into ESIF, which is implemented by Member States under shared management, it is also possible for the EU to influence policy making and budget allocation in Member States towards climate action. There would be even more EU added value if adaptation was mainstreamed also in areas where the EU has exclusive competence, such as trade and fisheries (the reasons for the absence of mainstreaming in these areas are discussed in section 6.2.3). In relation to Action 8, the main EU added value appeared to be in taking up a facilitative role in overcoming the main hurdles for public-private cooperation, starting with increased understanding of insurance markets in Member States through the insurance study and two thematic workshops organised by the Commission. 177 Thus, increased marketpenetration of risk transfer mechanisms across Europe was supported by EU action without unifying or harmonising the national insurance markets.
In general, the consultation indicates that while stakeholders such as governments at different levels would have certainly worked independently on adaptation without EU intervention, there would neither have been equivalent progress nor a collective approach without its encouragement. The majority of stakeholders agreed that equivalent progress would not have been made in the absence of the Strategy in particular for Actions 3 to 6.
176 See footnote 170.
177 See footnote 92.
Specific details on the EU added value of the Strategy’s actions are provided below.
Action 1 Member State strategies. As pointed out in Chapter 4, adaptation strategies had been drafted in 15 Member States before the launch of the Strategy. A 2014 EEA report 178 noted that 19 of the European countries surveyed identified “EU policies” as a driver for adaptation action, second only to extreme weather events (28 countries). While it is less clear what proportion of this can be attributed to the Strategy or to other policy drivers, it seems likely that the process of discussing the Strategy, and entering into the commitments set out in the 2013 Council conclusions, had an impact on the political salience of the subject. The presence of common guidelines for national strategies and an assessment framework in the form of the adaptation preparedness scoreboard also provided added value as EU-level coordination activities. For example, the guidelines have been used by Member States that had not previously developed NASs or by others when developing subnational or sectoral adaptation plans.
Action 2 LIFE. The mid-term evaluation 179 Reported that stakeholders largely acknowledged (95%) the catalytic role that LIFE is playing for better solidarity and responsibility-sharing in preserving the common good of the EU’s environment and climate, leading to less costly implementation of environmental and climate change policies. Notably, the added value of LIFE is that EU funding enables project beneficiaries to deliver results that in most cases would either not be realised at national, regional and/or and in particular at local level, or would be pursued at slower pace and on a lesser scale. This is especially so for Member States that have fewer financial mechanisms in place or when these mechanisms are difficult to access. Stakeholder interviews revealed that the added value was in providing funding for adaptation at a local level for which local authorities may have difficulty in finding other sources. For instance, a specific LIFE integrated project in Denmark has the possibility to mobilise hundreds of millions of EUR of complementary funding, assisting implementation of the relevant adaptation strategy.
Action 3 Covenant of Mayors. The Covenant, as an EU-level network of local authorities, enables peer-to-peer learning among European local authorities coming from different Member States but facing similar climate risks. It has increased local ownership of the EU Strategy for adaptation, providing impetus to the delivery of the EU’s climate and energy objectives in general. The Covenant provided access to Europe-wide adaptation knowledge produced and disseminated because of the Strategy, and in particular on the knowledge gaps the Strategy identified. Through the Covenant, the EU has been of direct assistance to local authorities and experts, in particular by optimising links with EU funding opportunities to carry out adaptation projects. The Covenant of Mayors offered a uniform level of support, sometimes making up for gaps in national support: the value of the Covenant of Mayors is particularly high in countries where similar national networks are absent 180 . In addition, the launch of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, has offered European cities further benefits and a voice at international level.
Action 4 Knowledge gaps Results from the targeted stakeholder survey strongly support that there is added value in H2020 and work undertaken by the JRC in addressing adaptation knowledge gaps. The availability of EU funding supports significant research
178 'National adaptation policy processes in European Countries – 2014', European Environment Agency, 2014.
179 LIFE evaluation: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/publications/lifepublications/evaluation/index.htm 180 See footnote 126
calls, complementing and contributing to global research and innovation efforts. The contribution of H2020 funded research to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports is significant and important. 181 In addition, many climate change impacts are continent wide (e.g. the last major floods in Europe covered several countries): in this context, the action by the Commission in addressing knowledge gaps through H2020 and the work of the JRC are identified as important in accelerating progress in the understanding of the issues at hand.
Overall, in combination, the targeted stakeholder survey, literature and interviews provide good evidence of strong added value from the work on knowledge gaps at EU level. There is also a continuing need for assessment reports from EEA, which are one of the recognised ways to disseminate research results in an understandable way for policymakers. Over 85% of 157 respondents to the open public consultation agreed or strongly agreed that one of the areas of clearest added value of acting at EU level is in bridging knowledge gaps. Action 5 is linked to this endeavour.
Action 5 Climate-ADAPT. An evaluation by the EEA of Climate-ADAPT notes that Climate-ADAPT adds value by providing an EU reference point for the state-of-the-art of adaptation in Europe. The literature, targeted stakeholder survey and interview evidence gathered under this evaluation also point to good evidence of added value through provision of background information, peer-to-peer learning and a source of inspiration. There is an indication that this may be more notable at transnational and national scale, than at sub-national or city scale.
Action 6 Mainstreaming. The EU is responsible for integrating adaptation into its own policies, so the added value of the Strategy is inherent to Action 6. Without the Strategy, an equivalent amount of progress would not have been made in climate proofing key EU policies such as agriculture and cohesion. However, it needs to be stressed that part of the responsibility lies with Member States, under the shared management of ESIF.
Action 7 Infrastructure. European Standardisation Organisations reported in the context of this evaluation that, although they had started considering standards, the process would have been much slower and would not have been so coordinated without the Strategy.
Action 8 Insurance and resilient businesses. Various stakeholders from the insurance and risk management industry indicated the importance of integrating insurance in climate risk management. The main benefit of the Strategy is the fact that the Commission has the opportunity to facilitate coordination of this public-private cooperation. Without the Strategy, the benefits of public-private cooperation, such as the consideration of good practices in national insurance schemes and better use of disaster data, would not have been as explicit as they are now.
181 The IPCC's 5th Assessment Report included around 1,000 quotes to FP6, FP7 and Horizon 2020 projects' outputs (papers). See: Interim evaluation of H2020 (Societal Challenge 5) https:// publications .europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/148b3b8f-50ae-11e7-a5ca
01aa75ed71a1/language-en (page 69)
-
7.C ONCLUSIONS
The objective of this evaluation is to examine the actual implementation and performance of the EU adaptation strategy (Strategy) between 2013 and early 2018, and to report to the European Parliament and Council.
The evaluation covered the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value of the Strategy. These criteria were examined in an external study 182 based on available evidence and the information gathered through consultation activities, including an open public consultation. Stakeholders are broadly supportive of EU action in the field of adaptation. They recognised the greatest added value in mainstreaming into other EU policies and in encouraging action at all levels of governance. They also highlighted the need to close knowledge gaps and to better integrate adaptation with climate mitigation and external policy. In general, consultation activities showed no strongly diverging views or conflicting interests between the different categories of stakeholders.
The evaluation concludes that the Strategy remains highly relevant, although recent research has revealed pressing adaptation needs, for example with regard to high-end climate change and the vulnerability of the EU to climate change in third countries (the closure of related knowledge gaps should receive more emphasis in the future). The Strategy is also quite coherent with policies at other levels of governance, although less so as regards international policies. A mix of qualitative and quantitative assessment found that the Strategy was effective, although more work needs to be done to implement and monitor national strategies, promote local action, bridge newly emerging knowledge gaps, complete mainstreaming in EU policy and foster the use of insurance and financial instruments in adaptation. The analysis of effectiveness was also hampered by the fact that the Strategy’s performance indicators focus on processes, no indicators are available to assess its socio-economic impacts, and no such indicators exist currently at EU scale. The Strategy seems efficient, imposing administrative costs only on the Commission. Finally, there is clear added value of the Strategy at EU level.
The Strategy delivered on its objectives, with progress recorded against each of the eight individual actions. In particular:
• The Strategy shifted some political focus towards adaptation issues and the
need for prevention and preparedness, and it increased awareness among a broad range of EU, Member State, and sub-national policymakers. As a result, a wider
range of stakeholders acknowledges the urgency of adaptation action nowadays.
• The Strategy promoted strong action by Member States and was one of the
drivers leading 25 out of 28 Member States to adopt NASs, most of them including good preparatory provisions such as horizontal coordination
mechanisms, stakeholder involvement and transboundary cooperation.
• At the local level, the Covenant of Mayors increased urban preparedness,
bringing adaptation actions close to the citizens and delivering on the objectives of the Strategy by means of a bottom-up, multilevel governance approach. The increase in the number of cities having effectively reported adaptation strategies/plans within the Covenant has been so far small, but this may be due to the absence (until very recently) of an online reporting platform. Survey-based estimates indicate that, overall, more than one-quarter of EU cities have such a policy document. Extreme weather causes more damage where population and
182 See footnote 4.
infrastructure are concentrated, and therefore, local authorities remain at the
forefront of climate shocks.
• LIFE’s targeted funds acted as an effective catalyst, providing and
disseminating solutions and best practices on the ground. Evidence points at the
need to increase LIFE resources devoted to adaptation.
• It increased the production and availability of valuable knowledge, in
particular as regards high emission scenarios. Climate-ADAPT, in particular, has become the Strategy's vehicle to disseminate information on adaptation to decision-makers at various governance levels and organisations supporting them. This has allowed decision-makers to make use of increasing adaptation knowledge for developing adaptation strategies and actions and to reduce uncertainty, but not to the point of closing all the gaps identified in 2013. Furthermore, as in many other scientific fields, new gaps have emerged. The focus may need to switch from gaps to decision-making processes that integrate uncertainty, such as adaptation pathways. 183 It would be also relevant to reinforce the cooperation between researchers and decision-makers, notably for practical
solutions on the ground.
• Mainstreaming of adaptation as part of climate objectives in key EU policies or
sectors was generally thorough (the most notable exceptions being the areas of trade and fisheries), including the way to track such progress. This was certainly the case for Disaster Risk Reduction, the European Regional Development Fund, the CF and CAP, even if a complete separation of mitigation and adaptation
spending is not possible due to co-benefits and synergies.
• As regards infrastructure, major projects are now required to be climate proof.
Further work on preparedness and standards is ongoing, but might not deliver
results before 2020.
• There was EU added value in having a Europe-wide policy instrument:
equivalent progress would not have been possible in the absence of the Strategy. This was most apparent in the production and dissemination of knowledge and in their integration of adaptation constraints in key EU policies. The evaluation suggests that there might be further EU added value if adaptation is mainstreamed
in areas where the EU has exclusive competences, such as trade and fisheries.
• Finally, in terms of internal coherence, evidence suggests that there are
synergies between several of the eight actions of the Strategy, even though the
Strategy did not expressly seek synergies between its actions.
There are lessons to be drawn from the evaluation with regard to potential gaps in the Strategy or to step up efforts in areas where the Strategy was less successful:
• The focus of the Strategy adopted in 2013 was on the EU, although already in 2010, the adoption of the Cancún adaptation framework 184 foretold the
importance that adaptation would gather in the future: in 2015 the Paris agreement enshrined adaptation as a global goal. The possible scope for alignment with international policy developments since 2013 would therefore merit to be examined, as well as the potential implications for the EU of
183 The concept of adaptation pathways focuses on the processes of decision making, rather than the outcome; it emphasises the adaptive nature of the decision process itself in the face of high uncertainty and complexity.
184 The Cancun Adaptation Framework was adopted in 2010 through the UNFCCC Decision 1/CP.16 (ref. document FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1).
transboundary effects of climate impacts in third countries via migration, trade and financial flows.
• While it succeeded in spreading the adoption of national strategies, there is
margin to improve implementation and monitoring, for example by developing meaningful indicators to monitor the socio-economic impacts of national strategies and to assess the value of the prevention and management of risks linked to climate change. This extends also to local level and adaptation strategies
in the context of the Covenant of Mayors.
• Progress in the adoption of local adaptation strategies has been slower than
expected. Better downscaling of adaptation knowledge might be required, notably on socio-economic impacts and possible responses. In addition, the national context may have an influence, e.g. whether and how national governments make urban adaptation compulsory or not, and the complexity of the inter-linkages between government levels. Where there were binding measures at national level the percentage of local authorities in the EU with a local adaptation
strategy was higher.
• As regards mainstreaming, there are opportunities for enhanced action in certain
sectors and funds, such as:
o Coastal protection, green infrastructure and ecosystem-based adaptation measures.
o Disaster Risk Reduction, notably on integration of climate change, its impacts and adaptation practices in methodologies and indicators, science/knowledge for risk assessment, metrics and dialogue between practitioners from both fields.
o Foreign trade (with a view to tackling possible spillover effects from third countries via supply chain).
o The EMFF and the ESF.
• Given the private investments required to adapt to climate change, there is a
need to involve further business and insurers in view of increasing climate risks. The Strategy may not have been as effective as expected in this field, but a new impetus has been provided by the recent adoption of the Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth, whose effects are not considered in this
evaluation.
In conclusion, the Strategy has proved effective in making significant progress towards its objectives up to 2020, while there is still some efforts needed in a few areas.
Annex I Procedural information
-
1.L EAD DG, De CIDE P LANNING /CWP REFERENCES
• Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) • 2016/CLIMA/011
-
2.O RGANISATION AND TIMING
The evaluation has been steered by DG Climate Action since 20 July 2016 185 under the
scrutiny of an inter-service group comprising of representatives of DG AGRI, DG BUDG, DG COMM, DG DEVCO, DG EAC, DG ECFIN, DG ECHO, EEAS, DG
ENER, DG ENV, DG FISMA, DG GROW, DG HOME, JRC, DG MARE, DG MOVE,
DG NEAR, DG REGIO, DG RTD, SG, DG SANTE, SJ, DG TAXUD and DG TRADE.
External consultants carried out an evaluation support study between December 2016 and
April 2018. 186 The Inter-service Group followed closely the drafting of study in four
meetings during 2017 and 2018.
-
3.E XCEPTIONS TO THE BETTER REGULATION GUIDELINES
None
-
4.E VIDENCE , SOURCES AND QUALITY
Source of evidence
Evidence for the evaluation support study was gathered through a wide range of data sources:
• Literature review • A targeted survey (114 responses) • An open public survey (386 responses) • Interviews (43 interviews with about 50 stakeholders) • Workshops (2 workshops) • 4 case studies
Quality of evidence
185 Ares(2016)4032796
186 See footnote 4
The evaluation gathered both quantitative and qualitative data from different sources and
stakeholders. The results are found robust through the triangulation of different data, but
to a varying degree depending on the sources.
The quality of the evidence gathered in the evaluation support study is discussed in
Annex XII.
Quality of the evaluation support study
The Inter-service Group endorsed the quality assessment of the final report evaluation
support study in its meeting of 17 May 2018. The inter-service group concluded that the
report overall complies with the contractual conditions and relevant professional evaluation standards. The following problems were highlighted:
• Minor gaps can be observed, for example the situation on EU funds in 2013 was
not covered in the Baseline section of the report.
• The analysis sometimes relies on views from individual stakeholders, but given
that the consultation solicited only limited feedback on certain topics not well
covered by literature, this was unavoidable. The report remains transparent on the
strength on the evidence.
• It would have been preferable to further improve the linkages between the
conclusions and the recommendations.
• In spite of repeated flagging of the problem, the report is still repetitive in many
cases. Also, more information could have been left for the appendices.
The identified issues were tackled in this SWD by eliminating repetitions and
superfluous details from the text and adding analysis done internally by the Commission
services, for example on modelling of future climate impacts.
In addition, the following changes in content were implemented compared to the study:
• The background study concluded that there have been no activities under Action
8 (adaptation for insurance and businesses) apart from a Commission study on the
topic of insurance. This was a difficult action to evaluate as unlike other actions, it did not have specific operational objectives established in the impact
assessment. However, internal follow-up research in the Commission services
revealed there were also some other activities, and most recently the Action Plan
on Financing Sustainable Growth in March 2018, when contractors could no
longer consider its analysis in the background report. This is reflected in the discussion of Action 8 in Chapter 4 on baseline, implementation and state of play.
• The background study acknowledged that mainstreaming of adaptation in the
common fisheries policy had been more limited than in other flagship policies
such as agriculture and cohesion, but did not analyse the possible reasons,
consequences and future action further. The SWD provided this analysis in
section 6.2.3.
-
5.C ONSULTATION OF THE R EGULATORY S CRUTINY B OARD
The initial draft of the evaluation was submitted to the Regulatory Scrutiny Board on 30
May 2018. Previously an informal consultation of the Board had taken place on 2 May 2018. The Board issued a quality checklist on 22 June and held its scrutiny meeting on
27 June 2018. They issued a positive opinion with comments on 29 June. The table
below presents how the Board’s comments were addressed in the evaluation.
In the first part of the table, paragraphs from the Board opinion and the quality checklist box entries covering the same issues are grouped together, because actions were taken that simultaneously respond to them. In the second half of the table, the remaining checklist box entries are addressed in their original order.
Source of the comments: Response from DG CLIMA
• Board opinion paragraphs: B(1) to
(4), C(1) to (5)
• Technical boxes of Board checklist 1
to 5
B(1) The report does not explain why it draws In the relevance discussion of Chapter 7 more optimistic conclusions than the ones of Conclusions, reference was added to the the support study. In particular, the further needs that the Strategy could conclusions on relevance do not take into address. account several findings of the external study
that call for changes of the current strategy. Annex I Procedural information now
explains what has changed from the C(3) The report should explain the reasons for study as compared to the report, in differences in assessment with the underlying particular in the area of insurance. study. The study seems to have a more critical approach to many deliverables of the Strategy, in particular in the area of insurance.
Box 5. Validity of conclusions and relevance for further action
Hyphen 1 The report should explain where and why it draws different conclusions than the support study.
B(2) The report assesses effectiveness on the Chapter 5 Method now explains the basis of processes only, and much less on the evaluation’s limitation related to the quality of adaptation actions, leading to overly availability of process indicators only. positive conclusions on the overall success of
the adaptation strategy. A description was added to Chapter 4
Baseline under Action 1 on how the C(2) Consequently, the assessment of the adaptation preparedness scoreboard also effectiveness should be more nuanced. The looks at the content and implementation report should clarify that the original of the National Adaptation Strategies. objectives focused on setting processes and
The analysis of the effectiveness of procedures while the evolving context and Action 1 under section 6.2.2 was progress in climate adaptation strategies point updated to reflect the latest version of to the need for effective implementation and the horizontal assessment of the country quality adaptation strategies. fiches.
Box 1 Design and methodology Chapter 7 Conclusions was amended to Hyphen 3 The report should elaborate on the be more reserved on achievements general approach taken, i.e. to only look at under effectiveness due to the how the actions to develop a more climatemethodological constraint linked to resilient Europe have developed rather than process indicators. assessing the actual results and the cost of funding (e.g. in sectoral funding).
Box 2 Effectiveness and efficiency
Hyphen 2 The report should more critically look into the quality of national strategies, not only their number/existence. One of the central evaluation questions concerned whether a revision of the Strategy is necessary. While the
Strategy does not impose anything on Member
States, its effectiveness should be judged also on the quality of national provisions and their stage of implementation.
Box 5 Validity of conclusions and relevance for further action
Hyphen 2 Why does the report not conclude on the lack of effectiveness concerning the socioeconomic dimension?
B(3) The report does not sufficiently integrate The analysis of the international the international context and developments dimension is now regrouped and into its analysis. streamlined in a new separate Chapter
3, instead of being scattered and less
C(1) The report should better present the visible throughout the document.
context of the Strategy and better link it to international initiatives. Building on that, the This Chapter explains better the reasons assessment of the continued relevance of the for excluding international policy from original objectives of the Strategy should be the Strategy and provides a concise put in perspective of the developments and overview of international developments evolving knowledge on climate change and since 2013. climate adaptation since 2013. Given these
developments, the conclusion that the Strategy A reference was also introduced in the continues to be relevant cannot be justified relevance discussion in Chapter 7 solely on the need to establish climate Conclusions to the problem of climate adaptation processes and procedures at the EU extremes presented in the Relevance and Member State level. section 6.1.1.
Box 1 Design and methodology
Hyphen 5 What is the rationale for excluding the international dimension of climate change from the scope of the Strategy, in particular given its interdependence with the international activities and events, such as the
2015 Paris Agreement and the fact that the international dimension was part of the EU
Adaptation Strategy package (SWD
2013(138))?
Box 5 Validity of conclusions and relevance for further action
Hyphen 3 How can the report conclude on the need to examine alignment with international policy development, if this has been taken out of the scope?
B(4) Monitoring and evaluation arrangements A presentation of ongoing work on new are not properly assessed to support the indicators was added to the section on conclusions. limitations in Chapter 5 Method.
C(4) As the context of the Strategy has Under Section 6.2.3 Drivers and evolved substantially, the report needs to barriers and in related Annex VIII elaborate on the monitoring and evaluation section 3, an explanations was added on framework. The report should clarify whether the respective responsibilities and existing monitoring and evaluation activities related to monitoring at the arrangements, including the revision of the EU and at the MS level. monitoring mechanism Regulation, are still
relevant or whether they need further An addition to Section 6.2.4 on effects improvement to capture socio-economic on different stakeholders explains that impacts, for example. This applies particularly meaningful results from the ongoing to the new focus on implementation and funding programmes are not yet substantive elements of the climate adaptation available to draw conclusions on sociostrategies at all levels. economic impacts.
Box 1 Design and methodology
Hyphen 2 The report should also document any efforts to develop indicators that would help measure the societal impact.
Such indicators would seem to require longterm data collection efforts. As the report will feed into the future revision of the Strategy, it should include a discussion on how to fill the identified data gap.
What is the role of the EU vs Member States in developing monitoring and evaluation tools?
Box 2 Effectiveness and efficiency
Hyphen 4 The study acknowledges the lack of information on the socioeconomic dimension on the ground. Socioeconomic trends interrelate with climate change but were not part of the Strategy's focus, when dealing with the action 4 on knowledge gaps. The report however builds on a need to map the socioeconomic impacts of adaptation policies. It seems that this mapping is (exclusively) based on the stakeholder consultation. Is there any other evidence of impact?
The report cites a lack of socioeconomic performance indicators as a reason why this impact is not measured. However, the report refers to the end of the ESIF, CAP and CFP to aggregate some societal indicators. Can more information be extracted from (mid-term) evaluations of relevant programmes (such as
ESIF, CEF, H2020, LIFE, Cohesion policy programme) to serve this purpose?
Why does the report not conclude on the lack of effectiveness concerning the socioeconomic dimension?
C(5) The report should present stakeholders’ Chapter 5 Method now specifies that views in more detail throughout the document. some of the (newly added) stakeholder
views in the study emanate from a small
Box 1 Design and methodology number of stakeholders.
Hyphen 4 The quality of the evidence seems variable with regard to the different Stakeholder views were added to those objectives/actions as clearly indicated in the sections of Chapter 6 Analysis where so text and annexes. As it often relied on far no references to such views had stakeholder views, these should be presented been made. in more detail, both in various sections and in
conclusions. In the beginning of Chapter 7
Conclusions, we explain about the specificity of this policy area as the interest of the stakeholders are rarely contradictory, so there is less scope in
presenting differing views.
Box 2 Effectiveness and Efficiency There was already a statement on the observed discrepancy between
Hyphen 1 The Strategy is meant to work as a preparatory and implementing action in leveraging instrument working via multiplier Chapter 7 Conclusions.
actions under the different objectives.
Therefore, it is difficult to assess its contribution given that there are several external drivers and there is no clear counterfactual. As reported on p. 31, stakeholders find that the Strategy has been more effective in encouraging preparatory activities and less in promoting assessment of options, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. This view needs to be reflected in the conclusions as well.
Box 2 Effectiveness and Efficiency The wording in Chapter 7 Conclusions now explains about the discrepancy
Hyphen 3 The evaluation could give more between the reported and the estimated attention to the need for local adaptation number of local strategies and about its action: While the Covenant of Mayors is possible reason, which at the same time counted as a success, only 26 % of cities have underpins and moderates the positive adopted an adaptation plan, independent of claims on the success of Action 3. whether they part of the Covenant or not. Only Chapter now also mentions the 3 % percent of cities with more than 150 000 discrepancy between, on the one hand, inhabitants have registered an adaptation Eastern and Southern European strategy with the Covenant. Member States and, on the other hand,
Central and Northern European Member States regarding the proportion
of local adaptation plans.
Box 2 Effectiveness and Efficiency A short description was added to Action 6 under Section 6.2.2 on how
Hyphen 5 The report states that Action 8 adaptation was mainstreamed into the (insurance) has so far not been very effective Commission proposal on the new but that this may change following the Multi-Annual Financial Framework adoption of the very recent proposal on 2021-2027. Section 6.2.2 also gives sustainable finance. Regardless whether this more details under Action 8 on the initiative makes a difference to a climatefuture implementation of the Action resilient Europe, there are few references in Plan on Sustainable Finance.
the report to other recent Commission proposals in areas that seem relevant to the
Strategy (e.g. MFF).
Box 3 Relevance and EU added value Section 6.2.3 to drivers and barriers to effectiveness already explained under
Hyphen 1 Action 6 of the Strategy focused on Action 6 the reasons for insufficient mainstreaming climate adaptation in various mainstreaming into fisheries policy. An policy areas, which was the task for EU itself. explanation for similar lack of The report identifies areas where significant mainstreaming into trade was added.
progress has been made, but neither the main report nor Annex VIII mention fisheries or The answer to Checklist Box 5 Hyphen trade as the areas where no progress has been 4 below explains how the mismatch of observed. Therefore, the gap analysis seems Section 6.5 EU added value and not complete and the narrative of section 5.5 is Chapter 7 Conclusions concerning the not consistent with conclusions of the report. mainstreaming gap in trade and The reasons for not including climate fisheries was addressed. adaptation in the missing areas should be explained.
Box 3 Relevance and EU added value Section 6.1.1 on relevance now gives the reasons of the ongoing need under
Hyphen 2 The Strategy’s objective to Action 6 for mainstreaming into other mainstream climate adaptation in various policy areas. policies appears to have been a kind of one-off type. As climate adaptation has been internalised in these policies (has been mainstreamed), one could question the relevance of keeping this objective of the
Strategy, at least for LIFE, ESIF and CAP.
Box 3 Relevance and EU added value The institutional setup in relation to the Hyphen 3 Sentences 1 to 3 Given the partly adaptation preparedness scoreboard was voluntary nature of the Strategy, there is no already presented in detail Chapter 4 obligation for Member States to establish their Baseline under Action 1. national climate adaptation strategies.
Nevertheless, the Strategy seems to exert oversight on what Member States are putting in place. This issue could be better developed in the report.
Box 3 Relevance and EU added value The new Chapter 3 on international Hyphen 3 Sentences 4 & 5 policy includes an explanation of the The report should report what adaptation nature of the EU and Member State efforts the EU and the member states have commitments under the Paris committed to under the Paris Agreement. It Agreement. should discuss how this affects the importance of the adaptation strategy.
Box 5 Validity of conclusions and relevance Adjustments were made to section 6.5 for further action and Chapter 7 Conclusions to resolve
the inconsistencies identified by the
Hyphen 4 The conclusions of the report on the Board.
EU value added do not reflect the narrative of the analysis. While section 5.5 states that EU added value is obvious for Action 6
(mainstreaming of climate adaptation into various EU policies), there is no discussion that this value added would have been even greater if the scope of policies considered were wider and included trade and fisheries as well, as suggested in the conclusions.
Hyphen 5 The statement in conclusions related to the very positive experience with climate mainstreaming needs to be reconciled with the conclusion on EU value added.
Hyphen 6 The conclusion that “the Strategy promoted strong action by Member States” needs to be reconciled with what is presented in section 5.3.1 (p. 47) where it is stated that
“the exact role of the Strategy in this respect is unclear, being one of multiple drivers”. In addition, the national strategies seem not to be well developed, so the narrative on the success of the Strategy should be toned down.
Box 6 Presentation The SWD focused entirely on the backward-looking evaluation. The
Hyphen 1 The report is proportionate, clear accompanying report to EP and Council and reader-friendly. It usefully documents will elaborate on the need to revise the progress since 2013, but provides only limited Strategy or not.
aid to policy making regarding whether a revision of the strategy is necessary.
Box 6 Presentation The practice of introducing and using acronyms was revised and corrected.
Hyphen 2 Even though the report contains a Acronyms are used more sparingly and glossary, acronyms should be spelled out when at their first use they are always spelled used for the first time in a given section. To out, for less known acronyms even improve fluency of the narrative, acronyms every time they first appear in a section.
should be used sparingly.
Annex II Stakeholder consultation
-
1.Objectives of the consultation
The current EU Adaptation Strategy (the Strategy) was published in April 2013 in response to the climate risks that Europe is and will increasingly face. The Strategy committed the Commission to report to the European Parliament and the Council on the state of its implementation. The evaluation was needed in order to comply with this requirement and assess the progress made since 2013.
As indicated in the Consultation Strategy and in line with the Better Regulation Guidelines, the objective of the Stakeholder Consultation in relation to the EU Adaptation Strategy evaluation is to draw upon existing evidence to deliver a high quality and credible evaluation study by allowing interested parties to provide their feedback and experiences of implementing the Strategy thus far. This includes identifying specific case studies or further evidence, lessons learned, knowledge, financing and capacity gaps, obstacles and factors of success, and suggestions for improvement.
-
2.Consultation activities and methodology
2.1. Activities
As defined in the Consultation Strategy, a combination of in-depth surveys, interviews of interested stakeholders, an open public consultation and stakeholder workshops have been used to gather evidence.
-
a)Stakeholder surveys – The targeted stakeholder survey ran from July to August 2017. It was available in English and comprised multiple choice and free text questions. Survey invitations were sent to 370 stakeholders involved, directly or indirectly, in the implementation of the Strategy. In addition, the invitation was
sent to all registrants for the 3 rd European Climate Change Adaptation
Conference, held in Glasgow (850 attendees). The structure of the questionnaire allowed the participants to focus on the Actions under the Strategy that were of
primary interest to them.
-
b)Stakeholder interviews – 43 interviews were held with about 50 stakeholders who had been actively involved in different aspects of the implementation of the Strategy. 35 of the interviews covered the 8 Actions with questions relating to the five evaluation criteria of relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value. Respondents could choose to respond on one or on more actions and could choose the questions on which they wished to focus. A further 8 interviews contributed to the development of four case studies on:
• Fire preparedness and the impact of climate change
• Spillover effects from climate change impacts occurring outside the EU
• The Danube macro-regional strategy (EUSDR) and its contribution to
action at Member State level
• Adaptation of infrastructure in the energy sector.
-
c)Open Public Consultation – An open public consultation was available from 7 th December 2017 to 1 st March 2018 (12 weeks) on DG CLIMA's website 187 . Initial multiple choice questions were for all respondents including private individuals. Sections with multiple choice questions on interim conclusions from the study in support of the evaluation 188 were available to expert stakeholders. All respondents could add comments in a free text field and upload a document or position paper.
-
d)Stakeholder workshop – Two workshops were organised to present the evaluation and gather new evidence to elicit further feedback on draft conclusions.
• 5 April 2017 – Over 90 stakeholders participated. It served to briefly
present the Strategy and obtain feedback on its implementation and to
guide the further development of the evaluation.
• 23 January 2018 – To present and discuss interim conclusions and
recommendations from the study. This was previously foreseen for October 2017, but it was postponed in order to discuss the preliminary results of the evaluation. Around 120 stakeholders participated in this
second event.
2.2. Stakeholder groups participating
In the context of the Strategy evaluation, a broad scope for the stakeholder consultation was necessary to ensure that all relevant and interested stakeholders had the opportunity to express their opinions and to contribute to the evaluation.
Six groups of stakeholders were identified in the mapping of the Consultation Strategy, which were used throughout the consultation activities in order to maintain a balance between different stakeholders. The figures below show the number of participants by
consultation activity and by stakeholder type. 189
187 Available at https://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/evaluation-eus-strategy-adaptation-climate href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/evaluation-eus-strategy-adaptation-climate-change_en">change_en
188 These were published alongside the open public consultation. See: Ricardo, IEEP, Trinomics, and
Alterra. Study to support the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy, Summary interim findings, 2017. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/consultations/docs/0035/summary_interim_findings_en.pdf
189 Please notice that in the figure 2 local and regional authorities are separated, nevertheless they are generally considered together in the evaluation, except when differences exist.
Figure II-1. Number of respondents by consultation activity
Source: External Support evaluation study
Figure II-2. Participants by stakeholder type for three consultation activities
Source: Own analysis of participation by consultation activity. Note that, in addition, 217 private individuals responded to the open public consultation.
Despite the fact that interviews were conducted with all types of stakeholders, the majority of them were from the National government/Administration and EU institutions due to the technical nature of the interviews and the necessity to obtain reliable evidence to proceed with sections related to efficiency and effectiveness.
In the case of the Open Public Consultation, the large majority of stakeholders (56%) were private individuals and the three largest countries by representation of respondents were Belgium (17%), Spain (14%) and France (10%).
Besides the balance between the interests of different stakeholders, the consultation aimed at ensuring a geographical balance by providing opportunities to all stakeholders across Europe to participate in the consultation activities.
Figure II-3. Participants by Member State for three consultation activities
Source: Own analysis of participation by consultation activity. Note that the 15 EU interviews are not ascribed to a Member State – the remaining 28 are in this figure
2.3. Methodology
The Open Public Consultation was published in 23 languages in EU Survey, an online survey-management system, during 12 weeks and actively advertised in the DG CLIMA's website and social networks of the Commission.
Quantitative information was collected and analysed using spreadsheets and the results were divided by stakeholder in order to identify coincidences and contradictions between different groups. For the Open Public Consultation, comparisons were made between groups with 20 or more responses – National Governments/ Administrations, private sector, university or research organisations, and NGOs. One further group combined the response from regional governments/ administrations and from local authorities to give a sub-national group (as foreseen in the Better Regulation Guidelines).
Qualitative information was received from: the stakeholder workshops, interviews, the many free text responses to the targeted stakeholder survey, the open text response to the open public consultation and the papers uploaded for the targeted stakeholder survey and open public consultation (analysed in the report).
The information collected was analysed according to the five evaluation criteria: relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value. Moreover, responses were further assessed by Strategy Objective / Action and by stakeholder type.
-
3.Results
3.1. Targeted Stakeholder Survey
In total, 114 stakeholders responded to the survey questionnaire of which 54 respondents only indicated their organisational type and their country, which left 60 responses to analyse. The questions and responses were organised by Action and focused on the effectiveness, coherence and efficiency criteria.
Figure II-4. Number of respondents of the Targeted Stakeholder Survey from each organisational type
Organisational type Number of respondents
National Government body 15
Sub-national Government 6
Municipal/city Government 2
Private sector 3
University 6
Research organisation 5
EU institution or body 4
Other international organisation 6
NGO 9
Other 190 4
On effectiveness, a total of 14 respondents to the targeted stakeholder survey provided specific examples of barriers to EU activities promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors (Agriculture, Forestry, Energy, Transport, Construction, Fisheries). Overarching barriers that some respondents identified as applying to several sectors include:
190 Those that self-identified as “Other” are: an EU network of regional authorities, a local government association in a Member State region, a regional development agency; and a research institute with a focus outside the EU
• Level and scale of available information on climate impacts and uncertainties of
extreme events (frequency and magnitude) – energy, transport and construction sectors
• Need for climate proofing standards – energy, transport and construction sectors
• Attitudes towards climate change, lack of collaboration between sectors – all six
sectors
• Insufficient EU initiatives to promote adaptation – energy and transport sectors
• Funding – all six sectors
• No obligation to consider climate risk (or very limited) – energy, transport and
construction sectors.
The majority of stakeholders considered that the Strategy had a clear added value since they affirmed that in the absence of the Strategy the same level of progress could not have been achieved, mainly for actions 3 to 6. For the rest, only around 20-40 stakeholders responded per action. This gives small numbers for each stakeholder group, and no major difference between their views was discerned.
3.2. Stakeholder interviews
Interviews provided evidence on all evaluation criteria. All types of stakeholder are represented in the interviews, nevertheless the majority of stakeholders came from public institutions (EU, Member State or sub-national).
Figure II-5. Number of respondents of the Targeted Stakeholder Survey from each organisation type
Evaluation criterion
Total EU
Organisation type number of Relevance Effectiveadded responses ness
Efficiency Coherence value
National, Sub-national and Municipal 16 15 16 11 11 13 Government bodies
EU Institutions or bodies 14 11 11 9 12 11
Other stakeholders 12 11 11 5 6 8
Total 42 37 38 25 29 32
On relevance, the stakeholder interviews highlighted that there is a need to close new knowledge gaps. Examples of such gaps highlighted by stakeholders included: adaptation in mountainous areas, climate impacts outside the EU that have implications for the EU, long-term lack of water resources and coastal issues, biodiversity, and high-end climate change (i.e. greater than 2ºC). The latter was also reflected by responses to the public consultation (90% of 158 respondents agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need to address the impact of high-end climate change).
On effectiveness, the interviews provided evidence that the Strategy played a role in ensuring increased political salience of the need for Member States to adopt strategies and plans where they were not already in place. The interviewees also suggested that the use of the adaptation ex ante conditionalities for European Structural and Investment Funds programmes was an effective mechanism for ensuring Member States adopted NASs.
Responses to interviews and the targeted stakeholder survey provided additional evidence on the adequacy of resources and how proportionate they were for each of the eight actions. Overall, numerous stakeholders highlighted the cross-cutting nature of adaptation and, thus, agreed that mainstreaming of adaptation objectives into sectoral policies is a necessity. A recurring policy area where coherence with adaptation was seen as essential is disaster risk reduction.
Recommendations included the potential value of enhanced discussion on regional-level adaptation challenges facing neighbouring Member States.
Eight further interviews were conducted to develop the 4 case studies listed in section 2.1.
3.3. Open Public Consultation
The survey was split between part 1 and parts 2-4, with part 1 targeted to all citizens and parts 2-4 targeted to those with professional experience with adaptation. There were in total 386 responses. Parts 2-4 were answered by 159 respondents (41% of the total).
The respondents had the opportunity to explain their experience with events attributed to climate change, and they identified a total of 1 651 events, the majority related to abnormally warm overall temperatures. Regarding knowledge of the EU’s strategy on adaptation to climate change, most respondents considered they had a good (32%) or limited (30%) knowledge. Only 12% of the stakeholders thought that they had a very good knowledge of the strategy and 10% had never heard of it. The knowledge was significant regarding programmes dealing with adaptation action, where 67% of stakeholders knew about H2020.
The relevance of EU-level action was found significant with 93% of respondents believing that it is necessary to combat adaptation to climate change. The responses on the generic aspects of Adaptation were generally supportive. The strongest agreement was found for the conclusions “Adaptation action is needed at all governance levels” and “The EU needs to encourage adaptation action by Member States”.
The respondents found the Strategy relevant; since they see the need of further action to address remaining knowledge gaps and to align EU adaptation policy with international developments.
Figure II-6 Responses in the open public consultation to interim conclusions that relate to relevance of the EU Adaptation Strategy
Source: Results from open public consultation. 160 respondents
On effectiveness, there was disagreement between stakeholder's results: regional and national authorities were more positive considering aspects as adaptation mainstreaming than the overall average.
Overall, on coherence, respondents replied positively to the conclusions. Nevertheless, stakeholders considered that there was still a need to better integrate adaptation concerns into the climate mitigation policy or the EU external policy areas. NGOs and Private Sector disagreed more compared to public authorities on the consideration that ‘progress has been made in integrating adaptation concerns into a wide range of EU policy areas’.
The respondents almost exclusively agreed with the conclusions about EU added-value. This highlights that many believe in the importance of the Strategy and EU action for adaptation to climate action. Furthermore, most stakeholders more strongly agreed that the greatest value of EU action is through mainstreaming adaptation into its own policies.
Finally, out of the 386 stakeholders involved in the public consultation, 239 submitted an answer to the open question and 27 position papers were received. An extensive summary can be found in appendix 2E of the external support study. 191 The position
191 Published on the website of the Evaluation of the EU’s Adaptation Strategy https://ec.europa.eu/clima/events/articles/0119_en
papers were analysed and were taken into account during the evaluation as part of the evidence.
3.4. Stakeholder Workshops
The first workshop (5th April 2017) provided significant input on the three priorities identified in the 2013 Strategy. There was agreement on:
• The need for research to be made available in forms that decision-makers could
use.
• The need for better understanding of social and cultural barriers to adaptation.
The effectiveness and coherence of the evaluation were the main elements discussed throughout the workshop: it was considered that the Strategy promoted action from some Members States (not all) and contributed to promote coherence in action.
The main findings of the evaluation were presented in the second workshop (23 rd January
2018). The recommendations of the external support study were supported by the large majority of members who assisted in the workshop, except on the alignment with International obligations under the Paris Agreement and its alignment with the Global Stocktake in 2023 (this recommendation was reconsidered in the final study). This second stakeholder workshop was useful to promote participation in the parallel Open Public Consultation. There were no major contradictions between the results provided by the workshop and the rest of the consultation activities.
-
4.Identified campaigns and ad-hoc contributions
No campaigns have been identified in the context of the Open Public Consultation.
Several documents and position papers were provided in association with the open public consultation. These were noted in the relevant consultation reports (appendix 2E of the external support study) and included as part of the evidence base for this work . Nevertheless no ad-hoc documents were received outside the consultation activities.
-
5.Feedback from the roadmap
There was no feedback received on the roadmap of the evaluation. Therefore, there were no significant changes applied to the consultation activities in comparison with the original roadmap.
In summary, information from the consultation forms a major part of the evidence considered in the evaluation. Evidence is compared with that from other strands of the consultation and also with results of the literature review to identify the overall level of agreement or divergence of the evidence. The results of the open public consultation, in particular, provide sufficient responses from key groups of stakeholders to consider whether there is agreement or divergence by stakeholder type.
Annex III Acronyms
Acronym Meaning
ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific states
C3S Climate Change Services
CAP Common Agricultural Policy
CBA Cost-benefit analysis
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CDP Carbon Disclosure Project
CEN Comité Européen de Normalisation
CENELEC Comité Européen de Normalisation en Electronique et en Electrotechnique
CF Cohesion Fund
CFP Common Fisheries Policy
CIS Common Implementation Strategy
CMU Capital Markets Union
CNCs Core Network Corridors
COP21 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21 in Paris, France
CoR Committee of Regions
Covenant Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy
CPR Common Provisions Regulation
CRR/CRD Capital Requirements Regulation and Directive
DCI Instrument for Development Cooperation
DG AGRI Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission
DG BUDG Directorate General for Budget of the European Commission
DG CLIMA Directorate General for Climate Action
DG COMM Directorate General for Communication
DG COMP Directorate General for Competition of the European Commission
DG DEVCO Directorate General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission
DG EAC Directorate General for Education, Youth, Sport and Culture of the European Commission
DG ECFIN Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
DG ECHO Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) of the European Commission
DG ENER Directorate General for Energy of the European Commission
DG ENV Directorate General for Environment of the European Commission
DG FISMA Directorate General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union of the European Commission
DG GROW Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs of the European Commission
DG HOME Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission
DG MARE Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries of the European Commission
DG MOVE Directorate General for Mobility and Transport of the European Commission
DG NEAR Directorate General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations of the European Commission
DG REGIO Directorate General for Regional and Urban Policy of the European Commission
DG RTD Directorate General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission
DG SANTE Directorate General for Health and Food Safety of the European Commission
DG TAXUD Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union of the European Commission
DG TRADE Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission
DRM Disaster Risk Management
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development
EAGF European Agricultural Guarantee Fund
EASME Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises
EbA Ecosystem based Adaptation
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ECA European Court of Auditors
EDF European Development Fund
EEA European Environment Agency
EEAS European Union External Action Service
EFFIS European Forest Fire Information System
EFSI European Fund for Strategic Investments
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EIB European Investment Bank
Eionet European Environmental Information and Observation Network
EMFF European Maritime and Fisheries Fund
ERDF European Regional Development Fund
ESF European Social Fund
ESIF European Structural and Investment Funds
ESOs European Standardisation Organisations
ETC European Territorial Cooperation
ETC/CCA European Topic Centre on Climate Change impacts, vulnerability and Adaptation
EU European Union
EU15 Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom
EUFIWACC European Financing Institutions Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change
EUR Euro
EUSALP The European Union Strategy for the Alpine Region
EUSBSR The European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region
EUSDR EU Strategy for the Danube Region
EWS Early Warning System
FERMA Federation of European Risk Management Associations
FP6 Framework Programme 6
FP7 Framework Programme 7
FRMP Flood Risk Management Plans
GCCA+ Global Climate Change Alliance
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GI Green Infrastructure
GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security
H2020 Horizon 2020
ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives
ICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River
Interreg European Territorial Cooperation
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISO International Organisation for Standardisation
JASPERS Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions
JPI Joint Programming Initiative
JRC Joint Research Centre
LIFE L'Instrument Financier Pour L'Environnement
MCA Multi-criteria analysis
MFF Multiannual Financial Framework
NAP National Adaptation Plan
NAS National Adaptation Strategy
NCFF Natural Capital Financing Facility
NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions
NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations
PESETA Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the EU based on bottom-up Analysis
RDP Rural Development Programme
SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment
SEAP Sustainable Energy Action Plan
SECAP Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan
SG Secretariat-General of the European Commission
SJ Legal Service of the European Commission
SMEs Small and Medium-sized Enterprises
SWD Staff Working Document
TEN-E Trans-European Networks for Energy
TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network
UIA Urban Innovative Actions
UN United Nations
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
URBACT European exchange and learning programme promoting sustainable urban development
WFD Water Framework Directive
Annex IV List of SWDs supporting the Strategy
Communication in 2013
The documents provide further information on certain elements of the Strategy and respond to some specific commitments made in the Strategy, e.g. to prepare guidelines on developing adaptation strategies. The supporting documents are:
• Impact Assessment of the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change • SWDs on
o Climate change adaptation, coastal and marine issues o Adaptation to climate change impacts on human, animal and plant health o Adapting infrastructure to climate change o Climate change, environmental degradation, and migration o Technical guidance on integrating climate change adaptation in programmes and investments of Cohesion Policy o Principles and recommendations for integrating climate change adaptation considerations under the 2014-2020 rural development programmes o Guidelines on developing adaptation strategies.
In addition, a Green Paper on the insurance of natural and man-made disasters was launched in parallel with the Strategy. The Green Paper sets out the potential for the European Union to facilitate and support the development of markets for disaster risk insurance.
The EU Adaptation Strategy package also included the ‘Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climate resilient’.
Annex V Intervention logic of the EU’s Adaptation Strategy
(reconstructed)
Needs • EU will be subject to unavoidable climate
impacts and their economic, environmental and social costs
• EU needs to increase its resilience to these
impacts and take early action to save on damage costs later
Objectives Actions Inputs
Strategic
Relevance • To contribute effectively to a more climate 1: Encouraging Member States to adopt Commission resources to prepare
Objective resilient Europe comprehensive adaptation strategies guidelines and scoreboard
relevant for
needs? 2: Provide LIFE funding to support
Funding (LIFE) for projects that support
Specific capacity building and step up
capacity building and step up
adaptation action in Europe adaptation action in Europe
Promoting action by Member States (Action 3: Introduce adaptation in the Covenant Commission resources to launch and 1, 2, 3) of Mayors framework implement adaptation aspects of the
Covenant of Mayors framework
Funding (Horizon 2020) for projects that
4: Bridge the knowledge gap address knowledge gaps, via the Commission’s research programmes and
Better informed decision-making (Action 4, support for JRC 5) 5: Further develop Climate-ADAPT as
the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation Commission and EEA resources to information in Europe further develop Climate ADAPT
Regulations and guidelines to support 6: Facilitate the climate-proofing of the the climate-proofing of EU actions
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the
Cohesion Policy and the Common Funding (Cohesion & CAP) for projects
Fisheries Policy (CFP). that address knowledge gaps, develop tools, and build up capacities for
adaptation
Climate-proofing EU action: promoting Commission resources to develop
adaptation in key vulnerable sectors (Actions 7: Ensuring more resilient infrastructure guidelines and technical standards for
6, 7, 8) climate proofing
8: Promote insurance and other
financial products for resilient Commission resources to engage with investment and business decisions insurance and financial sector
Mainstreaming of climate change Commission resources to support considerations in decisions making for mainstreaming in EU legislation
all sectors
Note: Due to lack of space, the operational objectives under each specific
objective and the performance indicators to measure them are not shown in
the graph. They are listed in Annex.
Annex VI Operational objectives and performance indicators in the 2013 impact assessment
The Strategy did not commit to achieving the operational objectives listed in the impact assessment and did not mention the related performance indicators. Furthermore, it listed the specific objectives in a different order and numbering than the Impact Assessment. In order to be in line with the Strategy’s numbering of the specific objectives, the operational objectives are renumbered in the list below. Their original number in the
Impact Assessment is shown in parenthesis.
Objective 1: Increasing the resilience of the EU territory 192 Operational Objective 1a (2a): by 2017, all Member States have adopted adaptation strategies, complemented by regional or local adaptation strategies, where appropriate o Number of NASs and action plans and national climate change risk assessments o Number and amount of LIFE grants used for experience transfer 193 Operational Objective 1b (2b): by 2020, cities of more than 150 000 inhabitants have adopted an adaptation strategy o Number and amount of LIFE grants used for lighthouse projects 194 on adaptation o Covenant of Mayors (ongoing): number of cities pledging to develop an adaptation strategy o Number of cities of more than 150 000 inhabitants in vulnerable areas with an adaptation strategy
Objective 2: Better informed decision making
Operational Objective 2a (1a): by 2020, priority knowledge gaps 195 identified in 2013 have been closed
o List of knowledge gaps now, in 2017, and in 2020 o Number of H2020 and JRC research projects dealing with adaptation and associated budget allocated
Operational Objective 2b (1b): by 2020, communication tools allow for available information on climate change adaptation to be more easily accessible for decisionmakers, including Member States, local authorities and firms
o Number of visitors to Climate-ADAPT, pages most visited, number of registered users, assessment of the content, databases and metadata
o Number of conferences, workshops, adaptation events registered in Climate ADAPT
192 This objective is labelled in the Strategy as “Promoting action by Member States” but is essentially the same objective.
193 These are projects that share experience and foster capacity building in relation to the development of national and regional adaptation strategies.
194 See footnote 52.
195 The key knowledge gaps that were identified are: information on damage and adaptation costs and benefits; regional and local-level analyses and risk assessments; frameworks, models and tools to support decision-making and to assess how effective the various adaptation measures are; and, means of monitoring and evaluating past adaptation efforts.
Objective 3: Increasing the resilience of key vulnerable sectors 196
Operational Objective 3a: by 2020, adaptation considerations have been mainstreamed in a consistent and comprehensive way in key EU policies
o List of policies and legal acts where adaptation has been mainstreamed o Adaptation activities by private organisations as reported in the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) surveys
Operational Objective 3b: by 2020, new major infrastructure investments are climateproofed
o Amount of adaptation infrastructure investments (co-)financed by EU funds and/or public financial institutions
o Progress on the mapping exercise by CEN-CENELEC 197 .
196 This objective is labelled in the Strategy as “'Climate-proofing' action at EU level” but is essentially the same objective.
197 The European Committee for Standardization (CEN) and the European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization (CENELEC).
Annex VII Inputs, activities and outputs related to the 8 actions of the Strategy
Action 1: Encourage all Member States to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies
This action encourages all Member States to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies. Encouragement has been provided through the following activities, and associated
outputs:
• Provision of guidelines to help Member States formulate adaptation strategies,
which were published alongside the Communication
• Development of an ‘adaptation preparedness scoreboard’, which identifies key
indicators for measuring Member States’ level of readiness.
• A commitment was also made that, in 2017, the Commission would assess action
being taken in the Member States and if progress is deemed insufficient, the
Commission would consider proposing a legally-binding instrument.
It was expected, when the Strategy was prepared, that the encouragement provided by the Commission in relation to Action 1 would contribute towards all Member States adopting an adaptation strategy, complemented by regional and local adaptation strategies, by
2017.
Action 2: Provide LIFE funding to support capacity building and step up adaptation action in Europe (2013-2020).
Action 2 concerns the creation of the Climate Action sub-programme under the 2014- 2020 LIFE funding programme for the environment. The sub-programme covers climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, and climate governance and information. Through the creation of the Climate Action sub-programme, the aim was to substantially increase the LIFE funds available to combat climate change.
It was expected when the Strategy was prepared that additional funding would be directed towards climate adaptation projects in comparison to the situation without the
Strategy. It was also expected that this funding would lead to better informed decisionmaking via the identification and implementation of relevant cross-sectoral and crossborder lighthouse projects. Other expected outcomes included the strengthening of existing networks and collaborations between Member States and associated countries and other third countries.
Action 3: Introduce adaptation in the Covenant of Mayors framework
Action 3 focuses on cities and urban areas, as they have an important role in low-carbon and climate-resilient development across Europe. The action concerns the support provided by the Commission to the launch of Mayors Adapt (the Covenant of Mayors Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change), through which local authorities can make a voluntary commitment to adopt local adaptation strategies and awareness-raising
activities. The initiative was launched by the Commission in March 2014.
It was expected, at the time the Strategy was prepared, that the encouragement provided by the Commission in relation to this action would contribute towards all cities of more than 150 000 inhabitants adopting an adaptation strategy, by 2020.
Action 4: Bridge the knowledge gap
Action 4 concerns two activities undertaken by the Commission:
• To work further with Member States and stakeholders to refine the adaptation
knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy and identify relevant tools and methodologies to address them. The findings were to be fed into the programming of H2020, the EU’s 2014-2020 framework programme for research and innovation, and were to address the need for better interfaces between science,
policy making and business
• To promote EU-wide vulnerability assessments considering, inter alia, the crosssectoral
EU overview of natural and manmade risks that the Commission was to produce in 2013. The Commission was, in particular, to support the JRC to undertake a comprehensive review of what global climate change will mean for
the EU.
It was expected, at the time when the Strategy was prepared, that the activities led by the Commission in relation to this action would contribute towards filling the priority knowledge gaps identified in 2013 by 2020.
Action 5: Climate-ADAPT website
Action 5 concerns activities by the Commission and EEA to further develop Climate ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. This includes improving access to information and developing interaction between Climate-ADAPT and other relevant platforms, such as national and local adaptation portals (2013/2014).
Climate-ADAPT started in 2012. It aimed to facilitate collection and dissemination of information to assist effective uptake by decision makers and to contribute to more coordination between sectoral policies and between institutional levels. Climate-ADAPT has since evolved into an information portal to support Europe in adapting to climate change, co-managed by the EEA and DG CLIMA. It provides information on adaptation strategies, case studies and specifically designed tools that support adaptation planning and decision making.
As part of the further development of Climate-ADAPT, the Strategy describes how special attention will be given to cost-benefit assessments of different policy experiences and to innovative funding, through closer interaction with regional and local authorities and financial institutions. The Strategy also indicates that work on the inclusion of the future Copernicus climate services (previously known as GMES – Global Monitoring for
Environment and Security) will start in 2014.
It was expected, at the time the Strategy was prepared, that the further development of Climate-ADAPT would allow available information on climate change adaptation to be more easily accessible for decision-makers, by 2020. It was also expected that the further development of Climate-ADAPT, linking in with other relevant platforms and developing associated guidance, would result in avoided costs for both the EEA and other database managers for data integration into Climate-ADAPT. This was also expected to reduce costs for end-users to compile and process data (the ‘one-stop-shop’ principle). Another expectation was that the inclusion of the Copernicus Climate Service in Climate-ADAPT would allow a better assessment of local and sectoral vulnerabilities and, therefore, provide additional data for proper climate risk assessments. Furthermore, it was expected that by supporting the exchange of information between science and policy, Climate-ADAPT would encourage and stimulate new research and development, as well as innovation, in the field of climate change adaptation across a broad spectrum of sectors in the EU as well internationally.
Action 6: Facilitate the climate-proofing of the Common Agricultural Policy, the
Cohesion Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy
Action 6 focuses on key EU financial instruments and policy areas, which cover: the CAP, delivered through the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) and the
EAFRD; Cohesion Policy, which is delivered through the ERDF, the ESF and the CF;
and the CFP. These instruments are jointly managed 198 by the Commission with the
Member States. They involve significant additional financial contributions from national budgets and an important role for Member States in spending the funds on the ground once the framework is decided with the Commission.
The Strategy committed the Commission to provide guidance on how to further integrate adaptation into the CAP, Cohesion Policy and the CFP. This guidance was published alongside the Commission’s Communication on the Strategy. The guidance was designed for managing authorities and other stakeholders involved in programme design, development and implementation during the 2014-2020 budget period.
This action was to be led by the Commission with the aim of contributing towards the comprehensive and consistent mainstreaming of adaptation in EU policies by 2020.
Action 7: Ensuring more resilient infrastructure
Action 7 concerns a three-pronged approach to ensure the development of more climate resilient infrastructure and commits the Commission to the following activities:
To launch a mandate for European standardisation organisations to start mapping industry-relevant standards in the area of energy, transport and buildings and to identify standards that need to be revised to achieve better inclusion of adaptation considerations.
To provide guidelines to help project developers working on infrastructure and physical assets to climate-proof vulnerable investments. These guidelines were launched alongside the Strategy.
To explore the need for additional guidance on ecosystem-based adaptation for authorities and decision makers, civil society, private business and conservation practitioners.
It was expected when the Strategy was prepared that that the activities led by the Commission in relation to Action 7 would help to ensure that major infrastructure investments are climate-proofed by 2020.
198 Referred to as “shared management”
Action 8: Promote insurance and other financial products for resilient investment and business decisions
This action concerns the activities to be undertaken by the Commission, as part of the Strategy, to promote insurance and other financial products for resilient investments and business decisions.
In relation to insurance, the Commission’s ‘Green Paper on the Insurance of Natural and Man-made Disasters’, adopted as part of the Strategy’s package, was a first step towards encouraging insurers to improve how they help to manage climate change risks.
In relation to other financial products, the Strategy envisaged further engagement with commercial banks on adaptation financing and exploring market-based approaches, such as payments for ecosystem services.
No clear expectations were stated when the Strategy was prepared as to how the market for insurance and other financial products for resilient investment would develop as a result of the above activities. However, it is implicit that these activities would enhance the development of the market.
Annex VIII Complementary information on the initiatives under the Strategy
-
1.LIFE
As of April 2018, there are at least 60 ongoing adaptation-related LIFE projects targeting implementation across a combined area of the size of Germany (more than 350 000 km 2 ). Although some participants in the public consultation meeting for this evaluation expressed concern that geographical coverage of LIFE projects since 2014 has been uneven, the LIFE mid-term evaluation notes that adaptation-related projects have a wide geographical coverage: Spain, Italy, Greece, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Estonia. A total of 44 of ongoing (April 2018) projects under the LIFE Climate Action sub-programme are categorised to climate change adaptation in the LIFE projects database. 199 Summary details of these 44 projects are provided in the table below. There are also approximately 17 adaptation-related projects in other programme strands, such as nature, environment resource efficiency and climate
change mitigation, with a total value of approximately 43 million EUR 200 .
Table VIII-1: Breakdown of LIFE projects per theme
Sector No. of Total project Commission projects costs contribution (EUR) (EUR)
Agriculture/forestry/tourism 11 24 188 350 14 380 392
Ecosystem based approaches 3 11 598 012 6 555 248
Health and wellbeing 1 3 337 611 1 938 969
Industry 2 4 134 838 2 436 391
Mountain/Island areas adaptation 4 8 482 383 4 959 631
Urban adaptation/planning 11 37 392 556 17 705 057
Vulnerability assessments/adaptation 3 28 565 314 17 139 247
strategies 201
Water (incl. flood management, 6 23 914 899 10 481 390 coastal areas, desertification)
Governance and information 3 6 343 007 3 509 300
Total 44 141 613 963 73 657 356
199 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/project/Projects/index.cfm 200 EASME calculations based on 60% of the 2014-2016 figures 201 Includes two integrated projects
The new LIFE programme includes ‘integrated projects’ within the action grants, which are designed to operate at a large geographic scale and “function as multi-purpose delivery mechanisms (e.g. creating environmental benefits and capacity-building) and are expected to exploit synergies and ensure consistency between various funding sources of the EU”. 202 Climate change adaptation is one of the targeted themes for integrated projects, which are intended as a vehicle for implementation of adaptation strategies and action plans. To date, two adaptation-related integrated projects have been funded in
Denmark and Spain. 203
In addition to integrated projects, LIFE has also directly supported other adaptation actions under the Strategy. For example, since 2014, the programme has supported eleven urban adaptation projects (Table VIII-1, above), six of which (total budget EUR
15.4 million) are helping to implement Mayors Adapt and Covenant of Mayors commitments. An innovative financial instrument, the Natural Capital Financing Facility
(NCFF), was introduced to the LIFE programme in 2015 (Multiannual Work Programme 2014 – 2017) and is implemented by the EIB. The NCFF provides financing (loan or equity) and technical assistance for natural capital projects that can generate revenues or
save costs while delivering on biodiversity and climate adaptation objectives 204 . The EIB
aims at an investment of 100 to 125 million EUR, with the EU contribution of 50 million EUR for guarantees and 10 million EUR for the support facility. At the moment, two out of the three ongoing projects are related to climate adaptation with a total estimated investment of 56.6 million euros, of which the EIB investment is 17.5 million EUR. The
Commission contributes with 8.7 million EUR for guarantees and technical support for the two operations.
-
2.Covenant of Mayors
Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, due to the often increasing concentration of population and infrastructure, the ageing population as well as the high proportion of artificial surfaces (which increases the risks of floods and heat waves). The increasing frequency of extreme weather events (such as floods or heat waves) can have dramatic economic and social consequences for our cities.
In order to address this challenge, Mayors Adapt (the Covenant of Mayors Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change) 205 was launched by the Commission in March 2014, as a flagship programme to promote and facilitate urban adaptation planning. Mayors Adapt drew on experience and expertise developed under the 2012-2013 ‘EU Cities Adapt’ pilot project.
In October 2015, Mayors Adapt and the Covenant of Mayors initiatives were merged, and the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (Covenant) was officially launched, introducing an integrated approach on mitigation and adaptation and a robust methodology to assess the risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change and track effectiveness of adaptation action.
202 See footnote 109
203 See footnote 53
204 http://www.eib.org/products/blending/ncff/index.htm
205 http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/about/covenant-initiative/origins-and-development.html
Signatories to the Covenant voluntarily commit to develop a climate vulnerability and risk assessment and an action plan for targeted adaptation options within two years of signing up to the initiative. This political commitment includes reporting every two years on the implementation progress of their plans.
Between 2013 206 and 2018, the Commission implemented and funded the Covenant of
Mayors Office (for the amount of funding, please refer to section 11 in this Annex). These two actors inform, mobilise and support local authorities in taking climate mitigation and adaptation action. The Commission and the Covenant Office raise awareness -including on access to financial opportunities-, encourage political commitment from local authorities to take action, promote their local commitments and actions via the Covenant’s communication channels, assist Covenant signatories with any questions via a helpdesk, technical guidance, including for monitoring and reporting, capacity-building events and webinars, facilitates peer-to-peer networks and exchange of experiences and good practices, implement a city twinning programme, online discussion forums, and networking events. The Commission and the Covenant Office also engage other governance levels and stakeholders (States, regions, provinces, national / thematic agencies or organisations, etc.) and co-ordinate work with third parties. The
Commission’s JRC cooperates with the Office to provide comprehensive technical guidelines, templates and feedback to local authorities for the preparation, implementation and monitoring 207 of the latter's commitments.
More specifically on facilitating access to funding, this has been one of the key priorities
of the Covenant. 208 Information on funding opportunities is made available on a regular
basis through various means, such as website news items, capacity building events, webinars, Covenant Investment Forums, as well as the informative material, such as the
Quick reference guide on financing opportunities (March 2016) 209 , leaflets, fact sheets
and most recently the Interactive funding guide available in 23 EU languages since March 2018. 210 The pool of financial experts is established to generate more knowledge on innovative financing opportunities and projects to be available for local authorities.
The Commission mobilises financial and political support for signatories at EU level. Indeed, regarding financing, part of the EU funds and financial instruments (i.e.
European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), European Structural and Investment Funds, Urban Innovative Actions (UIA), URBACT, LIFE, LIFE Natural Capital
Financing Facility, and H2020 support the implementation of the commitments from Covenant signatories on climate change adaptation. The Commission also contributes to providing advice and technical assistance in view of financing local climate change adaptation projects, e.g. through the Urban Investments and Advisory Platform new
206 2008, for climate change mitigation.
207 At the start of 2017, in consultation with the signatories, the Covenant of Mayors Office developed an updated and integrated monitoring and reporting framework, which includes mitigation and adaptation reporting requirements. For the content/structure see here: https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/IMG/xls/SECAP_Template_EN.xls
208 See footnote 126
209 Quick Reference Guide, Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, 2016. Available: https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/IMG/pdf/Quick_Reference_Guide_-
_Financing_Opportunities_updated2016.pdf 210 http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/support/funding.html
dedicated urban investment advisory platform and the Joint Assistance to Support
211
Projects in European Regions (JASPERS).
Regarding political support for signatories at EU level, the Commission contributes to this through, for instance, its high-level representatives publicly encouraging and supporting local and Covenant signatories' climate change mitigation and adaptation commitments and actions, regularly meeting the EU Covenant Board (representing the Covenant community) as well as cities' and regions' representatives, and participating in conferences for local authorities organised or not by the Commission (e.g. the Covenant high-level Ceremony of 22/02/2018 212 ), the Commission supporting the Urban Agenda for the EU including the climate change adaptation theme, and the Commission supporting the creation of the EUROPA's Cities topic one-stop shop webpage including
the adaptation theme 213 .
Outputs produced by the initiative and shared by signatories are disseminated more
widely via the Covenant of Mayors website 214 and the Climate-ADAPT platform.
By 22 December 2017, within the Covenant of Mayors initiative, 9 264 signatories (local authorities) from 53 countries (including 28 EU Member States), covering 252 million inhabitants, had committed to the Covenant of Mayors (mitigation and/or adaptation).
From these local authorities, since the launch of Mayors Adapt in March 2014 and by 30 April 2018, 1076 signatories from 25 EU Member States, covering around 60 million inhabitants, had committed to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments, and develop, implement and report on adaptation plans. Out of these signatories, 21 (2%) had submitted a full local adaptation action plan (i.e. including a strategy and a climate risk and vulnerability assessment). There has been linear progression since 2014 in the
number of signatories and submitted adaptation plans. 215 At the moment of writing this
document, the number of submitted full adaptation strategies is low due to the fact that the Covenant online reporting platform for adaptation is not yet fully ready. Once this online reporting platform will be officially launched, we can expect an increase of submissions of local adaptation plans, which may well mean estimates based on current trends are overly pessimistic.
A 2017 survey of just above 500 EU municipalities also found that 28% of municipalities had a climate adaptation action plan and of those that did not, only 42% intended to introduce one in an undetermined future (the remaining 17% did not intend to introduce one and 42% did not know). 216 A 2018 analysis of the local climate plans of 885
211 The EUROPA Cities topic webpage, Climate adaptation in cities, Funding opportunities and advice, https://ec.europa.eu/info/eu-regional-and-urban-development/topics/cities/priority-themes/climate
href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/eu-regional-and-urban-development/topics/cities/priority-themes/climate-adaptation-cities_en#funding-opportunities-and-advice">adaptation-cities_en#funding-opportunities-and-advice . 212 https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/news-and-events/news/1518-10-years-of-european-covenant-of
href="https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/news-and-events/news/1518-10-years-of-european-covenant-of-mayors.html">mayors.html 213 https://ec.europa.eu/info/eu-regional-and-urban-development/topics/cities/priority-themes/climate
href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/eu-regional-and-urban-development/topics/cities/priority-themes/climate-adaptation-cities_en">adaptation-cities_en 214 www.covenantofmayors.eu 215 From March 2014 to April 2018 (50 months, or 4.2 years), the average rate of signatories' adhesions to
the Covenant is of around 256 per year (1076 signatories divided by 4.2 years). From March 2016 (moment from when the first signatories had to start submitting their adaptation plans) to April 2018 (26 months, or 2.2 years), the average rate of adaptation plans' submissions to the Covenant is of
around 10 per year (21 submissions divided by 2.2 years). 216 Covenant community’s needs for SE(C)AP design and implementation, Covenant of Mayors for Energy
-
&Climate, 2017.
representative cities of EU-28 (both Covenant cities and non-Covenant cities) similarly
concluded that about 26% of EU cities had adopted adaptation plans. 217 It suggested
"that, in countries where autonomous local climate [mitigation and/or adaptation] plans are rare and cities are not required by national legislation to develop plans, such as Cyprus, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Malta, but also Portugal […], Romania […] and Spain […], international networks such as the Covenant of Mayors raise the awareness, build the capacity and, often through EU-funded projects, provide the expertise and the funding necessary to develop local climate plans." 11% of the cities of the analysis' sample have an adaptation commitment within the Covenant.
A survey 218 conducted by the Covenant Office in early 2017 that consulted municipalities, provinces, regions and national ministries identified barriers to city-level action:
• Cities are less aware and less equipped for climate change adaptation than climate
change mitigation. Among the three pillars of the Covenant of Mayors, the area where respondents from cities declare that they need the most support is climate adaptation (45.1%), followed by climate mitigation (37.0%) and access to energy
(17.9%);
• Access to financial resources remains the greatest barrier to climate action:
scarcity of financial resources appears as a central issue for 84% of municipalities and for almost 55% of provinces, regions and national ministries. Cities need in particular specific support regarding access to European Structural Investment Funds, and the EU funding programmes such as LIFE, Urban Innovative Actions
and URBACT; • A lack of technical expertise and political support were the next most prevalent
barriers for cities: assistance is needed for both planning and implementation of climate action, including designing an integrated approach to mitigation and adaptation. 55.8% of municipalities, and 73.4% of provinces, regions and national ministries indicate strong needs for designing an integrated approach for
mitigation and adaptation.
Based on the identified needs, the Covenant Office has developed a capacity building strategy and work plan that has translated these findings into concrete actions, such as capacity-building and awareness-raising workshops, webinars, city twinnings, and the
interactive funding guide, 219 all tailored to the identified needs.
Building on the success of the EU Covenant and its gradual extension to EU’s neighbourhood, Africa, Americas and Asia based on financial support from the European
Commission, the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy 220 was officially launched in 2017 bringing together the Compact of Mayors 221 and the Covenant of
Mayors. It offers a worldwide multi-stakeholder alliance of cities committed to climate and energy action, with the support of founding partners, in particular city networks, and through several regional secretariats, supported by the European Union, that deliver technological and methodological support.
217 See footnote 147
218 See footnote 216
219 https://www.covenantofmayors.eu/support/funding.html
220 https://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/
221 http://impact.compactofmayors.org/
-
3.Monitoring and evaluation on adaptation action at EU and Member State level
The following can be observed about EU- and Member State-level efforts in developing monitoring and evaluation of adaptation action.
EU:
• Climate vulnerabilities (and logically the appropriateness of adaptation
action) are difficult to compare between EU Member States due to local specificities.
• There was a clear role foreseen for the Commission to develop an EU-
level adaptation preparedness scoreboard (Action 1)
• The Structural Funds under the 2014-2020 MFF already include indicators
on the number of people protected from floods and forest fires, however too few projects have been fully implemented yet to draw meaningful
conclusions on impacts.
• In addition, the mainstreaming efforts under the Strategy have enabled the
inclusion of much improved indicators in the recent MFF proposals, e.g. the CAP proposal.
▪ The current 2014-2020 CAP includes measures to support climate
adaptation. Measures are chosen in support of priorities and focus areas. There is, however, no adaptation-specific priority or focus area. 222 This created both a difficulty in clearly identifying and
tracking adaptation action.
▪ The proposed future CAP now includes a specific objective, as well as
impact and result indicators that are directly and exclusively related to
adaptation. ▪ They will help ensure consistent monitoring and reporting of climate
adaptation efforts in agriculture across Member States, while taking
into account national specificities.
Member State:
• The Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (outside the framework of the
Strategy) requires Member States to report to the Commission on their adaptation activities, without setting a mandatory format for such reporting. The reporting is published on the Climate-ADAPT platform
managed by the EEA.
222 Climate adaptation is split between "risk prevention and management", "restoring, preserving and enhancing ecosystems related to agriculture and forestry" and "promoting resource efficiency and supporting the shift towards a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy in the agriculture, food and forestry sectors".
• The Commission guidelines on Member State strategies state that the
NASs should also include monitoring and evaluation tools at national level.
• Whereas all NASs do foresee such monitoring and evaluation tools,
Member States are monitoring and evaluating their strategies to a varying degree, depending on where they are in the adaptation policy cycle.
o For example, Germany will complete the evaluation of their 2008 strategy in 2019.
o In the case of the Netherlands, the 2007 NAS was evaluated in 2012, which led to the conclusion that the 2007 NAS did not address all relevant implications of climate change. This in turn contributed to the conception of the Dutch NAS 2016.
o National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) implementing the strategies add a further layer of complexity to monitoring.
• Further improvement and sharing lessons learnt is probably possible. The
EEA will publish a paper in 2018 and a full report in 2019 or 20 on how evaluation processes can improve adaptation practices at country-level.
o This is a learning and dissemination exercise looking at five countries which have used evaluation indicators (further countries have expressed interest in joining the exercise).
o The report also looks into links between indicators at national level and the relevant indicator developments under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.
o It will also examine how data collected by EUROSTAT can be used for different adaptation purposes.
In the future, the reporting requirements under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation will be replaced by the provisions of the recently adopted Energy Union Governance
Regulation. 223 The role of the adaptation preparedness scoreboard also needs to be redefined
in this new context. This should be an occasion to enhance and further harmonise the monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation policy at EU and national level.
223 COM(2016) 759 i: Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union, amending Directive 94/22/EC i, Directive 98/70/EC i, Directive 2009/31/EC i, Regulation (EC) No 663/2009 i, Regulation (EC) No 715/2009 i, Directive 2009/73/EC i, Council Directive 2009/119/EC i, Directive 2010/31 i/EU, Directive 2012/27 i/EU, Directive 2013/30 i/EU and Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 i
-
4.Bridging the knowledge gaps
Four knowledge gaps were identified in the Strategy 224 :
• Information on projected costs and benefits of impacts and adaptation • Regional and local-level analyses and risk assessments • Frameworks, models and tools to support decision making within uncertainty and
to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures
• Monitoring and evaluation of past adaptation efforts
The evaluation assessed how much effort was put into each broad knowledge domain and where possible, how much financial input was invested in it. To assess which sectors of society were assisted with knowledge production, all research items were ascribed to sectors (e.g. water, nature, health etc.). From several studies on remaining knowledge gaps, the evaluation then inferred if the effort for each domain so far is perceived as sufficient; and if new knowledge domains have emerged for society to be able to move towards adaptation action.
As means for addressing the knowledge gaps, the Strategy indicated H2020 and the JRC, the latter especially, would provide a comprehensive EU-wide vulnerability assessment. The ‘Horizon 2020 Work Programme 2014-15’ was adopted in December 2013 to promote EU-wide vulnerability assessments, considering, inter alia, the cross-sectoral EU overview of natural and manmade risks that the Commission produced in 2013. The H2020 work programmes 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 explicitly mention the Strategy.
In close collaboration with the European Environmental Information and Observation Network (Eionet) and its 33 member countries, the EEA gathers data and produces
assessments on a range of topics related to the environment 225 . More specifically EEA
supports and informs policy development and implementation in the area of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation by means of data, information/indicators,
and assessments 226 . In these activities EEA is supported by the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation (ETC/CCA), funded by EEA 227 .
The EEA report on 'Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016' 228 provides an overview as well as valuable analysis of knowledge gaps remaining in 2018, which have been mapped against the knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy. This analysis was based on a range of sources (including IPCC, JPI and EU projects), but it was not fully comprehensive.
A study assessing available knowledge in three thematic areas was also completed for the Commission in 2017 (vulnerability assessment, ecosystem-based adaptation,
infrastructure adaptation). 229 Since 2011 the JRC has been supporting the European
224 The Impact Assessment of the Strategy suggested one more knowledge gap (‘Socio-economic trends that are interrelated with climatic changes’. See Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment, SWD(2013) 132 final, page 14.
225 https://www.eea.europa.eu/ and https://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us
226 https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate-change-adaptation and the multi-annual and annual work programmes
227 http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/
228 See footnote 113
229 Ecofys, Assessing Adaptation Knowledge in Europe: Vulnerability to Climate Change / Ecosystem
Based Adaptation / Infrastructure Resilience in the Transport, Energy and Construction Sectors, study
Commission in analysing the socio-economic costs and benefits of climate change and adaptation to it in different sectors (JRC PESETA projects). The evidence to date indicates that despite progress in understanding, knowledge gaps remain in the areas identified in the Strategy (notably as regards benefits of adaptation in other areas) and new ones have emerged, as adaptation is a fast evolving and complex field.
Table VIII-2 Remaining knowledge gap components
Key knowledge gaps identified in the Areas where further research is still needed Strategy 2013
Information on projected costs and
benefits of impacts • Knowledge on effective adaptation solutions
and adaptation
• Enhanced approaches to regional- and local-level
Regional and localadaptation issues
level analyses and risk • Robust, integrated (across sectors and geographical assessments and governance scales) impact, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments
Frameworks, models
and tools to support • Climate services providing the best available climate
decision making within data to support adaptation uncertainty and to • Decision-making and policymaking support tools assess the and assessments, including on the costs and effectiveness of benefits of impacts and adaptation adaptation measures • Ways to deal with uncertainties
Monitoring and
evaluation of past • Monitoring systems and tools
adaptation efforts
The 2017 knowledge assessment study identified new gaps in the following two sectors:
• Demonstration of transferability of existing evidence
in terms of contexts or relevant climate hazards, as
Ecosystem based evidence is highly context specific
Adaptation (EbA)** • Effectiveness and efficiency of EbA at larger scales of implementation (e.g. river basins)
• Demonstration and quantification of co-benefits of
EbA
for the European Commission, 2017. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/knowledge_en#tab-0-1
• Higher resolution projections of climate data need,
up to below 1 km which can be beyond the current
boundaries of climate modelling
• Assessment of competing land-use objectives and
optimal land-use options (for example, in terms of water resources, flood management, renewable
energy production)
• Better understanding of the transport sector’s
current and future vulnerabilities across modes,
including inter-modal vulnerability assessments and
• the potential for integrated adaptive solutions across
and beyond the transport sector
Infrastructure** • Developing, selecting and applying adaptation
indicators and the appropriate monitoring system at city level to assess progress in adaptation and the
effectiveness of measures
• Improve understanding on how to combine climate
and non-climate data for infrastructure planning
• Better understanding on how to evaluate and
address dependencies and interdependencies within and across infrastructure sectors (also includes water and Information and Communication Technology), in particular with social and environmental sector, and how cascade effects
impact vulnerability
Further new gaps identified by the EEA and other stakeholders are listed in Chapter 6.1 under the relevance criterion. They include:
• Interdependencies, synergies and trade-offs with other relevant sustainable
development goals
• Enhanced communication, shared learning and co‑creation of knowledge. • Spillover effects of impacts and adaptation within EU and at the global level. The
case study on spillover effect from climate change impacts outside the EU (see Case Study 2 in Annex XIV) also highlights the need to review existing evidence and invest in this field.
• Adaptation in mountainous areas • Long-term lack of water resources • High-end climate change • Gaps in research topics such as health, coastal areas, biodiversity.
124 research items (defined as research reports, projects and programmes) have been identified that were published in 2013 or later, and are focused on adaptation to climate change. Figure VIII-1 provides a breakdown of the 124 research items by source.
Figure VIII-1 Number of adaptation-focused projects and reports since 2013
Source: Own analysis
Expenditure on adaptation-related research includes:
• The seventeen FP7 projects identified that addressed adaptation to climate change
had a total budget of EUR 106 million.
• A total of EUR 275 million has been committed to H2020 adaptation research
projects starting between 2014 and 2017 (generally ending 3-5 years later). This
amounts to 0.6% of the total H2020 budget 2014–2020. 230
• It is estimated that EUR 10 million was spent by JRC on adaptation since 2013,
which equates to about 0.8% of the total JRC budget for this period. It is not possible to identify the exact proportion of JRC’s total budget made available for adaptation-related research over the period 2013 – 2016, as it cuts across several
different parts of JRC and there is no specific budget head.
The EEA prepares assessments based on information provided by its member countries as well as from climate adaptation research and other information sources. EEA also funds the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation (ETC/CCA) to support its work programme on adaptation. Expenditure by EEA on all work on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is not available. But specifically for Climate ADAPT, an estimate was calculated for the combined expenditure of EEA and the Commission of about 2.7 million EUR, for the period 2013-2016, based on EEA information.
Figure VIII-2 shows the 124 research items categorised according to the knowledge gaps identified in the Strategy that they address. A total of 50 items are related to newly emergent knowledge gaps: mainstreaming; cooperation; adaptation technologies; and a
230 Factsheet: Horizon 2020 budget, European Commission, 2013. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/pdf/press/fact_sheet_on_horizon2020_budget.pdf
more generic category, including issues relating to the climate system and resilience.
Although they are not strictly within the pre-formulated knowledge gaps of Action 4, they are related to other actions in the Strategy, so it seems reasonable to assume that they result from the Strategy.
Figure VIII-2 Research projects and reports addressing the four knowledge gaps or other emerging knowledge gaps
Source: Own analysis
Each of the 124 research items have been ascribed to the sector to which they primarily relate: cities, water, infrastructure, agriculture, nature, fisheries, health, disaster risk reduction, or ‘other’ (broad projects or programmes, encompassing many sectors). The most frequently addressed sectors were water (27 items), nature (25 items), and agriculture (24 items). A total of 30 items were categorised as ‘other’.
Taking costs identified in H2020 grants as a proxy for spending per domain, most addressed water, cities, and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Other research funding is spent by JRC, other EU directorates, Member States, and others, for which detailed data on expenditure was not found. The budget for the JRC reports could not be retrieved, as JRC does not monitor this amount separately, however, JRC estimates the total amount at Euro 10 million between 2013 and 2017.
Figure VIII-3 Total expenditure per domain
Source: Own analysis
In summary, 45 H2020 projects and 34 JRC reports dealing with adaptation have been identified. The total budget for the H2020 projects starting between 2014 and 2017 is EUR 275 million. A further EUR 148 million has been committed for 2018-2020.
The European Climate Change Adaptation conference series, launched in 2013 following the publication of the Strategy, has gained a significant momentum since its inception, and had become the de facto European forum of excellence for adaptation scientists and practitioners.
-
5.Climate-ADAPT
The information on the Climate–ADAPT portal is collected by the EEA, and the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation (ETC/CCA), from a range of information sources, including EU-funded research projects, Interreg, LIFE, national policy pages, and reports from NGOs and sector networks. These documents are submitted monthly to the database and subjected to a strict quality control process carried out by the EEA and the ETC/CCA. Currently, a total of 76 case studies describe implementation of adaptation actions and information on 40 adaptation options have been gathered. Country pages present the information on the state of play on adaptation in each Member State, which was reported under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation in 2015 and was updated on a voluntary basis in 2016-2017. A total of 84 city profiles of selected Covenant of Mayors and Mayors Adapt signatories have been included.
The EEA mid-term evaluation report on Climate-ADAPT includes a set of use cases of
Climate-ADAPT 231 which gives an overview of who is using Climate-ADAPT and what
for. For example, the UK health sector has used Climate-ADAPT information to create a risk and adaptation plan for the health sector in England, while the City of Bologna has used Climate-ADAPT information to develop the Bologna Urban Adaptation Plan and guidelines for medium-sized Italian cities.
-
6.Key policy initiatives where adaptation was mainstreamed
During the period covered by the evaluation, adaptation was mainstreamed in EU and international disaster risk reduction polices. In 2013, the EU Civil Protection legislation was revised to ensure better response to natural and man-made disasters. Climate change was integrated in the new legislation as one of the reasons for the increasing severity and complexity of disasters and included as a component of the EU assessment of risks and in trainings for civil protection personnel. Since early 2014, much effort has been put in mainstreaming adaptation in the implementation of the Civil Protection Mechanism legislation and in all its annual work programmes. In 2017, a new Commission proposal for the Union Civil Protection mechanism was adopted: it recognizes a fundamental role for prevention in disaster risk management, and includes consideration of climate change impacts as a key component of effective prevention and preparedness.
Synergies between climate change adaptation and DRR were also enhanced in the implementation of EU cohesion policy funds, in particular the ERDF and the CF. Climate and disaster proofing are built into the appraisal of major projects for cohesion policy support. Moreover, risk assessments are a precondition for funding from the ERDF and CF.National climate change adaptation strategies are required, where appropriate, to inform national risk assessments. Currently work is ongoing to integrate climate change adaptation in the disaster risk reduction peer review system to promote policy development and actions relevant to disaster risk reduction. Climate change adaptation has also been mainstreamed in the work plan and in most outputs of the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Knowledge Centre (launched in September 2015).
From an international angle, Commission Services have worked to integrate climate change adaptation in the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction (adopted in March 2015). Much of the work done on cities, infrastructure, insurance, knowledge and loss and damage directly contributes to the implementation of the EU Action Plan on the Sendai Framework. Adaptation is also well anchored in the work of the European Forum for Disaster Risk reduction ( co-lead by the EU Commission and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) which aims to create a safer Europe by reducing risks and vulnerability and supports Europe's contribution to the Sendai framework.
As regards the EU’s Outermost Regions, the Commission adopted in October 2017 a new strategy 232 committing to consistently taking into account these regions’ specificities in all EU policies. This entails taking into account the particular constraints of these regions when designing the selection criteria and types of financial support. The Commission has committed to implementing a number of initiatives to cater for the climate vulnerabilities, which compound their specific limitations in terms of e.g. remoteness, small size, insularity and socio-economic problems. Certain French
231 https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/help/climate-adapt-use-cases/climate-adapt-use-cases/
232 See footnote 138
Outermost Regions were affected by hurricanes in 2017 (such as Saint-Martin, 95% of its French part having been destroyed by hurricane Irma).
In terms of EU water policy, the Blueprint to safeguard Europe's water resources was adopted in 2012 with the long-term objective to ensure the sustainability of all activities that impact on water. It recognised the challenges brought about by climate change and pointed to a number of means to preserve EU water resources. Blueprint actions included inter alia the development of a Green infrastructure strategy 233 that includes a specific chapter on adaptation, the development of a SWD on Agriculture and sustainable water management 234 , and a current proposal for “Minimum quality requirements for reused water in the EU”. 235
In a separate process, the Floods Directive foresaw upon its entry into force in 2007 the mandatory integration of climate change projections into their flood risk assessments, maps and plans by the 2 nd cycle of its implementation (2016-2021). 14 Member States had already included climate change in their Preliminary Flood Risk Assessments and 16 in their Flood Hazard and Risk Maps by 2011 and 2013 respectively on the basis of readily available information in the 1 st cycle of implementation (2010-15).
The Commission is currently in the process of assessing the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) in parallel with the River Basin Management Plans. A report
summarising the findings of these assessments will be published in the 2 nd half of 2018 and will make reference to climate change. Over the 2 nd cycle of implementation (2016- 2021) Member States are required to take into account the likely impact of climate change on the occurrence of floods, thus putting a stronger requirement compared to the 1 st cycle.
The main EU initiative in urban policy, the Urban Agenda for the EU is progressing with the objective to include and better recognise the urban dimension in policies. Climate adaptation is one of the priority themes under the Urban Agenda for the EU and has been mainstreamed into its key elements, such as the EU One Stop Shop for Cities, the Urban Data Platform, Urban Innovative Actions, and the Urban Investments and
Advisory Platform. A Climate Adaptation Partnership was launched in July 2017 236 and
is currently preparing an action plan to be adopted by the end of 2018. Synergies with other Urban Agenda for the EU Partnerships are sought, including those on: Sustainable Use of Land and Nature-Based solutions; Circular Economy; Air Quality; and Energy Transition.
Adaptation was also mainstreamed into the Commission’s 2016 proposal on the
Governance of the Energy Union. 237 The proposal, which had been foreseen in the 2015 Energy Union Strategy 238 , specified the Member States’ reporting requirements on
233 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Green Infrastructure (GI) – Enhancing Europe's Natural Capital, COM(2013) 249 i
234 Commission Staff Working Document: Agriculture and Sustainable Water Management in the EU, SWD(2017) 153 final
235 Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on minimum requirements for water reuse, COM(2018) 337 final i
236 https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/climate-adaptation
237 See footnote 223.
238 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank: A
adaptation policy in greater detail than the current Monitoring Mechanism Regulation, which it should replace in an effort to align with adaptation reporting under the Paris Agreement. The energy and climate related reporting in the EU will be also simplified, as it is regrouped under the same law. The draft regulation, on which the European Parliament and the Council reached an informal agreement in June 2018, equally ensures that the National Energy and Climate Plans to be submitted by the Member States in the future include climate adaptation components where applicable.
Climate change adaptation has actively been mainstreamed in EU development cooperation policy and actions. Strengthening climate change resilience, in particular in most vulnerable countries is considered as an important component of EU development cooperation and is therefore integrated in all the relevant EU policy documents (for example Agenda 2030, and the European Consensus on Development).
Operationally, support to climate change adaptation is integrated into:
• Development cooperation programs with partner countries (Instrument for
Development Cooperation, DCI and European Development Fund, EDF) in
sectors as energy, agriculture, water, forestry, disaster risk reduction, etc.
• Regional envelopes (EDF and DCI budgets), for example in Latin America
(EuroClima) or in programmes on disaster risk reduction.
• Financed through dedicated thematic programmes, such as the Global Climate
Change Alliance + (GCCA+)
Finance for climate change has increased in the past years from EUR 9.5 billion in 2013 to EUR 20.2 billion in 2016. To date, the European Commission is one of the major donors for adaptation finance: in 2017, more than 50% of the climate change finance was dedicated to adaptation projects.
During the period covered by the evaluation, awareness was raised on the link between climate change, EU external relations and security. In the past couple of years concrete steps have been made to integrate and recognize climate change as a threat multiplier which if not managed well can spur a downward spiral of fragility and conflict. Concretely, climate change has become an important part of the External Action Service
strategic reflections 239 and it has been integrated in the External Action Service work on
security and conflict prevention. The EU Conflict Early Warning System (EWS) assesses the risk of emergence, re-emergence and escalation of violent conflict in the coming four years. Climate change has over the last 2 years been a priority theme for conflict prevention and fragility assessment in the EWS. For the countries that are prioritised by the EWS, an in-depth conflict analysis is conducted which also looks at climate change impacts.
Relevant to the security angle is also the progress made on recognizing and further analysing the link between climate change and human displacement, as demonstrated at the international level by the creation of a Task Force on Displacement in the context of
Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy, COM(2015) 080 final i
239 Such as the EU Global Strategy and A Strategic Approach to Resilience in the EU's External Action
the UNFCCC. 240 In 2013, a Commission Staff Working Paper on Climate Change and
Migration was adopted together with the EU Adaptation Strategy. This paper provides an overview of the research and data currently available on the interlinkages between climate change, environmental degradation and migration.
Since 2013, EU policies on migration and external relations have increasingly taken into account climate change as a trigger to displacement and climate change adaptation as an effective tool to tackle root causes of migration. Examples include: Council conclusion
on Climate diplomacy in 2013 241 , 2016 242 and 2018 243 and the 2016 Communication on Forced Displacement and Development 244 .
Environmentally induced migration continues to be a priority under the EU's external cooperation instruments for the period 2014-2020. The Programme on Global Public
Goods and Challenges 245 includes a migration and asylum component which includes a
commitment to deliver on improving understanding of the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on migration flows and the potential of migration to contribute to climate change adaptation. Moreover, the EU financed a number of projects to develop knowledge and practices to address climate induced migration.
The 2017 Joint Communication 246 on Resilience developed to define an approach to address the challenges identified in the EU’s Global Strategy for the European Union’s
Foreign and Security Policy 247 builds on the 2013-2020 Resilience Action Plan 248 and is aligned with EU commitments to the 2030 Agenda 249 . It consider economic resilience as an important area for the overall resilience of the EU, with climate change as a crosscutting disruptive element, mentioning financial contingency measures, sustainable and inclusive investment, and promotion of a circular economy to protect vital services and facilities in case of instability. The EU is to “work with the European Investment Bank, other International Financial Institutions, business sector organisations and social partners to enhance investment frameworks for economic and social resilience”, notably by “promoting risk transfer through risk financing mechanisms such as insurance and contingency credit”.
How the topic of adaptation was mainstreamed in EU funds (CAP, CFP, ESIF) is analysed in more detail in section 8 below.
240 https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/constituted-bodies/executive-committee-of-the-warsaw-internationalmechanism-for-loss-and-damage-wim-excom/areas-of-work/migration--displacement-and-human-
mobility 241 Council conclusions on EU Climate Diplomacy, Foreign Affairs Council meeting, Luxembourg, 24
June 2013 242 Council conclusions on European climate diplomacy after COP21, Foreign Affairs Council Meeting,
Brussels, 15 February 2016 243 Council conclusions on Climate Diplomacy, 26 February 2018 244 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European
Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Lives in Dignity: From Aiddependence to Self-reliance, COM(2016) 234 final i
245 Commision Implementing Decision adopting a Multiannual Indicative Programme for the Thematic Programme 'Global Public Goods and Challenges' for the period 2014-2020. C(2014)5072
246 Joint Communication on 'A Strategic Approach to Resilience in the EU's external action' JOIN(2017) 21 final i
247 Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe. European Commission, 2016
248 Commission Staff Working Document: Action Plan for Resilience in Crisis Prone Countries 2013-2020, SWD(2013) 227 final
249 Council conclusions on A sustainable European Future: The EU response to the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development, 20 June 2017
-
7.Carbon Disclosure Project survey results on companies and climate risks
The 2017 company questionnaires for climate change, forestry and water undertaken by Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) did not extensively report on climate adaptation activities on a company level. Consequently, the level of analysis on adaptation activities by private organisations is limited by the generic framing of questions, and the overlap between climate adaptation practices and conventional risk management strategies.
Accounting for the analytical limitations, the 2017 climate change questionnaire still found cases of climate impacts capable of impact on businesses. Inter alia, the questionnaire found that 84% of the 764 surveyed companies had identified inherent 'physical climate parameters' with the potential to generate a substantive change to the business operations, revenue or expenditure. Similarly, in the 2017 questionnaire for the CDP Forests Program found an even higher climate relevance of identified operational risks, with 40% of identified operational risks having a direct climate relevance, and an additional 51% with an indirect climate relevance. The Forests Program questionnaire further suggests that companies consider such operational risks to be likely to occur, with 78% of companies indicating risks to be medium – high likelihood of affecting their operations (CDP Forests Program 2017 questionnaire).
CDP's 2017 Water Information Request found that 93% of companies undertake waterrelated risk assessments. 85% of surveyed companies indicate inherent water risks with an ability to affect business production and continuity (CDP 2017 Water Information Request). The assessment of adaptation actions and risk mitigation strategies is rendered difficult by the overlap between these actions and more conventional business risk mitigation strategies. Supplier engagement and diversification represents the most commonly adopted response strategy (41% of actions), with 26% of strategies incorporating made up of infrastructure & technological investment, due diligence, monitoring & evaluation, facility relocation, risk transfer instruments and flood emergency plans (see figure below).
Figure VIII-4. Most commonly implemented response strategies reported by companies through the CDP 2017 Water Information Request
Most implemented response strategies
2% 1% 1% Supplier engagement &
diversification
4% Stakeholder engagement &
4% promoting best practice
Infrastructure & technological investment
12%
42% Due diligence, monitoring & evaluation
New products
10% Water management incentives
Facility relocation
Risk transfer instruments 24%
Flood emergency plan
For 2018 the CDP is restructuring the questionnaires to enable more direct linkages to climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. Through these changes, it is anticipated that companies will be able to report in greater detail on activities such as new service developments, land management practices and supplier engagements with concrete mitigation and/or adaptation benefits.
-
8.EU funds for climate resilience
Common Agriculture Policy
According to a 2016 study 250 , the EAFRD is the only ESIF where there seems to be a greater focus on adaptation actions compared to mitigation objectives. While this seems to enhance the status of Action 6 of the Strategy, there are two important caveats. Firstly, while adaptation seems to be well acknowledged into Rural Development Programmes (RDPs), it seldom appears as the objective having presided over the choice of the specific measures. This is especially so due to the difficulty to separate mitigation and adaptation related measures in agriculture and forestry sector, as those measures offer co-benefits. Adaptation is considered by virtually all RDPs. It is more to the fore in those regions that are already being affected by extreme weather events. While many measures (e.g. targeting biodiversity, soil, and water use) have the potential to support climate adaptation, whether they are implemented will need to be assessed by an ex post evaluation of programmes. Secondly, the tracking methodology developed for the EAFRD raises concerns about over-estimations. The European Court of Auditors has suggested an alternative and more conservative use of the Commission’s climate markers. It concluded that this could reduce the overall climate allocations under the
EAFRD by 42%. 251 The Commission took note of the suggestions while emphasising
that the tracking methodology needs to remain stable during the current MFF for reasons of predictability, consistency and transparency. However, ways of fine-tuning the tracking methodology for the EAFRD may be considered for the post-2020 programming period without increasing the administrative burden.
More broadly, climate mainstreaming is supported under the EAFRD by the requirement for RDPs to spend at least 30% on a range of climate and environmental measures. 252 Nevertheless, this minimum requirement includes measures which do not appear to have
a significant impact on the achievement of climate objectives. 253 It is also notable that
while rural development measures provide scope to fund adaptation that directly benefits farm businesses (for example, support for more efficient irrigation systems) and delivers wider public benefits (e.g. land management practices which reduce flood risks), programmes appear to focus on the former.
The European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), which funds the CAP’s direct payments, is not part of ESIF. Climate considerations are included via the greening component (30% of total direct payments) and cross-compliance (basic requirements to access direct payments). According to the Commission’s calculations around 20% of direct payments can be considered climate relevant. The European Court of Auditors (2016) suggests that assumptions used for this estimate lack sound justification, in
250 See footnote 78
251 See footnote 170
252 Article 59.6 of Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 i on support for rural development by the EAFRD
253 Ricardo Energy & Environment, IEEP, Trinomics, Climate mainstreaming in the EU Budget: preparing for the next MFF. Final report, 2017
particular, for measuring the climate relevance of the non-greening component. With the application of more conservative estimates, they identify that the total contribution can be reduced by EUR 9 billion from EUR 47.1 billion to EUR 38 billion. 254 The Commission’s response to the report states that it considers its methodology suitably conservative and does not lead to an overestimation. The principal climate relevant impact of the greening measures is carbon sequestration represented by the permanent grassland measure. Diversification and ecological focus areas can also support adaptation. Certain elements of the cross-compliance requirements related to biodiversity, soil, water also indirectly contribute to adaptation. Cross-compliance has helped to encourage adaptation actions to some degree. There is an ongoing evaluation 255 by the Commission of the impact of the CAP on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, which is expected to also provide evidence on adaptation actions in the CAP.
Cohesion Policy
Both the ERDF and the CF provide contributions to the climate adaptation objectives under the adaptation Thematic Objective (TO5), under low-carbon economy (TO4) and also in other Thematic Objectives due to the horizontal mainstreaming. The ESF does not target TO5 256 . The climate tracking system applied under the Cohesion Policy, in particular the ERDF and the CF, is the most sophisticated. The climate markers are
applied to a thematic list of 123 intervention codes 257 at the point when expenditure is
committed by the managing authorities. For the 2014-2020 programming period, the intervention codes have been revised. A code specifically focusing on adaptation actions (code 087: “Adaptation to climate change measures and prevention and management of climate related risks e.g. erosion, fires, flooding, storms and drought, including awareness raising, civil protection and disaster management systems and infrastructures”) was introduced, to which a 100% climate marker was applied. Furthermore, a separate code (100: “Outermost regions: support to compensate additional costs due to climate conditions and relief difficulties”) was put in place to track adaptation actions in outermost regions but only counts as 40%.
According to the study 258 estimates, which build on the amount of allocations for the
relevant intervention codes, EUR 6 billion has been allocated to adaptation objectives under the Cohesion Policy with EUR 3 billion each for ERDF and CF. This accounts for
254 For more details of the calculations, see 'Spending at least one euro in every five from the EU budget on climate action: ambitious work underway, but at serious risk of falling short', European Court of Auditors, 2016, p.30.
255 See more at: Evaluation of the impact of the CAP measures on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, European Commission, Ares(2017)2886183
256 As the ESF supports social and employment objectives, climate change is not considered to be a primary objective. Thus, it does not cover TO5. Nevertheless, in order to better capture the potential contribution of the ESF to climate objectives (e.g. through investment in low-carbon skills), a secondary theme (01: “low-carbon, resource efficient economy”) was established. At the same time, its relevance seems to be greater for mitigation actions than for adaptation.
257 Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 215/2014 i of 7 March 2014 laying down rules for implementing Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down common provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the ESF, the CF, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and laying down general provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the ESF, the CF and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund with regard to methodologies for climate change support, the determination of milestones and targets in the performance framework and the nomenclature of categories of intervention for ESIF.
258 See footnote 78
11.2% of the total ERDF and CF allocation. Furthermore, another EUR 4 billion was estimated to provide indirect climate (mitigation and adaptation) benefits. The review of the Operational Priorities showed that nearly half of them addressed climate change adaptation at the high strategic level of the Operational Priorities, which then translate into specific objectives and actions. Most adaptation relevant allocations targeted flood protection measures. Other allocations include actions on drought and heatwaves and less frequently on specific sector-related actions (e.g. energy efficiency in buildings and making transport infrastructure climate-resilient).
More broadly, climate change objectives (both mitigation and adaptation) are further supported in Cohesion Policy by the legal provisions for the ESIF (e.g. horizontal mainstreaming, ex ante conditionalities, major project assessments and common output indicators).
Adaptation objectives are also an important component of the European Territorial Cooperation (ETC) goal, which is supported by the ERDF. The ETC has been further strengthened in the 2014-2020 programming period through closer alignment with the macro-regional strategies and greater recognition and encouragement of Member States to cooperate at the macro-regional and sea-basin level. More than 20% or almost EUR 2 billion of the ETC programmes expenditure is expected to contribute to climate change objectives. Adaptation is emphasised in these programmes: with 75% of all cooperation programmes including adaptation as part of their strategy, and a particularly high level of support for adaptation in cross-border programmes (as opposed to transnational and interregional programmes). In addition to the cooperation programmes themselves, territorial cooperation is also being pursued by the EU macro-regional strategies (e.g. the EU Strategy for the Danube Region or the EU Strategy for the Alpine Region – see Case Study 3 in Annex XIV). In many cases, the macro-regional strategies have a targeted focus on adaptation actions.
Support from the CF can be only applied in a limited number of Member States 259 . Those Member States which cannot receive funds from the CF made a greater use of the EAFRD for their adaptation actions, although the actual adaptation impacts of these actions are not always clear (see comment above in section on climate-proofing the CAP). Another interesting aspect is the urban dimension of Cohesion Policy. This is primarily supported by the ERDF but also receives support through CF and ESF. To strengthen the role of the ERDF in sustainable urban development, a target of 5% was set as a minimum share of ERDF that needs to be spent directly on integrated urban strategies by the cities. Furthermore, the emphasis on cities in ERDF investments have been increased, as about EUR 15 billion from the ERDF is planned to be directly managed by cities. At the same time, the EEA has highlighted that “although climate change adaptation is not a major focus in this, the support for green infrastructure might be considerable, as a major emphasis is on urban rejuvenation and brown field regeneration”. 260 While green infrastructure has the potential to deliver adaptation benefits, in the ERDF and CF Operational Programmes most of the green infrastructure actions were described only in general terms, rather than in the more explicit terms used
259 Support from the CF can be only used by Member States whose Gross National Income (GNI) per inhabitant is less than 90 % of the EU average. Also, the CF can only intervene in a few TOs, which explains why it appears to be more concentrated on adaptation than ERDF.
260 'Building resilient cities key to tackling effects of climate change', European Environment Agency. 2016.
for other types of investment (for example, investments to achieve water quality goals).
Thus, implementation of these actions is uncertain.
In addition to the 5% ear-marking for integrated urban strategies, ERDF allocations to TO4 (”Supporting the shift towards a low-carbon economy in all sectors”) shall be at least 20% in more developed regions, 15% in transition regions, and 12% in less developed regions. 261 A similar ear-marking is not in place for the adaptation objective. (TO5), but there is also possibility to finance low-carbon strategies, including mitigationrelated adaptation measures under TO4. Finally, climate considerations integrated into decisions on major projects supported by the ERDF and CF, as a result of the legal provisions on assessment of such projects, are also expected to have a positive impact on climate adaptation and climate resilience.
Common Fisheries Policy
As mentioned above, the thematic objectives set in legislation for ESIF include TO5, which explicitly addresses climate adaptation and risk management. However, the
legislation for the EMFF 262 does not specifically address TO5, indicating a lesser focus
on climate adaptation actions. Nevertheless, the study found that some of the measures (e.g. the protection and restoration of marine biodiversity, and the adaptation of fishing gear to altering conditions) under the EMFF have the potential to deliver adaptation objectives.
At the same time, the climate tracking methodology for EMFF is not developed in great detail. Furthermore, the ECA (2016) notes that Member States were not required to report on climate expenditure until 2016 and, as such, the accuracy of Commission estimates cannot be verified. It states that the current legal framework shows that “direct and clear references to climate change objectives, both mitigation and adaptation, are still rare and, as a result, the fisheries fund had not widened the scope of its contribution to climate action”. Indirect contribution of EMFF to climate adaptation objectives cannot be tracked given the lack of detailed tracking methodology.
Overall expenditure on adaptation
An indicative split between adaptation and mitigation – based on the outcome of the
programming exercise – is presented below in Figure VIII-5 from a study 263 undertaken for the Commission as part of the mainstreaming of climate action 264 into the European
Structural and Investment Funds in the programming period 2014-2020.
261 Article 4 of Regulation (EU) No 1301/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 on the European Regional Development Fund and on specific provisions concerning the Investment for growth and jobs goal and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1080/2006 i.
262 Regulation (EU) No 508/2014 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014
263 COWI, Mainstreaming of adaptation into the ESIF 2014-2020, Study for the European Commission,
2017: Main Report ( https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/budget/docs/report_maindtreaming_adaptation_en.pdf ); Annex A with Case Studies ( https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/budget/docs/report_maindtreaming_adaptation_en.pdf ); Country Summaries for EU28 (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/budget/docs/report_maindtreaming_adaptation_annex_b_en .pdf)
264 See footnote 78
Many measures that are good for mitigation also entail co-benefit for adaptation and vice-versa. Hence an identification of measures exclusively supporting mitigation or adaptation objectives would neither be desirable nor feasible. This however does not prevent from tracking expenditures supportive of mitigation and adaptation objectives separately, even if a certain proportion of such expenditures is then counted twice.
Figure VIII-5
EU Support and climate related expenditures - EUR Billion. [% of total]
Climate EU support related Of which
Direct Supportive Direct mitigation adaptation measures for both
ERDF and ETC 196.7 37.9 30.8 3.4 3.6
[19.3%] [15.7%] [1.7%] [1.8%]
63.4 17.6 13.4 3.0 1.3 CF
[27.8%] [21.1%] [4.7%] [2.0%]
ESF and Youth 88.9 1.2 1.2 - -
Employment Initiative [1.3%] [1.3%] - -
5.7 1.0 1.0 - - EMFF
[18.2%] [18.2%]
99.0 56.5 5.4 7.5 43.6 EAFRD
[57.1%] [5.5%] [7.6%] [44%]
453.7 114.2 51.9 13.9 48.5 Total
[25.4%] [11.4%] [3.1%] [10.8%]
-
9.Adaptation-related work in the European Standardisation Organisations
CEN-CENELEC were expected to map relevant EU standards that could ensure that new major infrastructure projects are climate proofed. In May 2014, the Commission gave the
European standardisation organisations (ESOs) a mandate 265 to develop tools to consider
climate change in a systematic way in European standardisation, to identify standards
265 Commission Implementing Decision of 10.12.2014 on a standardisation request to the European standardisation organisation, C(2014) 7912 final
relevant for adaptation to climate change in the three priority infrastructure sectors 266
identified in the Strategy, and to revise those standards or to develop new ones as appropriate. The first phase of the work under the mandate was completed at the beginning of 2017 and resulted in a shortlist of 12 standards to be revised and 1 standard to be written under the second phase, which started at the beginning of 2018 and is expected to take about four years. CEN-CENELEC will then consider whether the process should be extended to other standards. The technical committees are currently asking for more detailed information on climate change projections data. In addition, the 'Guide for addressing climate change adaptation in standards' 267 was adopted in April 2016 by CEN-CENELEC. The guide applies to product- (including design), service-, infrastructure- and test standards, and is intended to be applicable to both "climateinfluenced products" (i.e. products whose fitness for purpose may be affected if climate change is ignored) and "climate resilience products" (i.e. products whose main aim is to reduce vulnerability to climate hazards). The guide is primarily intended for authors of standards.
-
10.Insurance and financial services
Currently, risk transfer does not constitute an integral part of adaptation approaches in many Member States, in spite of the fact that the insurance industry’s risk pricing can allow efficient scoping in terms of where risk reduction is required. Member States apply diverse systems of insurance, which represents a challenge to an increased marketpenetration of risk transfer mechanisms across Europe.
The Strategy’s evaluation study noted that ideally risk transfer and insurance solutions are an integral part of a comprehensive approach to climate adaptation and risk management. There is growing evidence that countries with widespread market-based insurance coverage do recover faster from the financial impacts of extreme events. While the benefits of risk transfer tools, such as insurance, are increasingly being recognised globally, there is still a large, and in some places growing insurance coverage gap, as the difference between total damages due to natural catastrophes and damages covered by insurance is increasing. On average, more than two thirds of the economic losses from
natural hazards remain uninsured globally 268 . The gap in EU countries could be as high
as 50%, given the level of development and concentration of people and assets in highrisk zones.
Two studies commissioned by the EU 269 looked into insurance as a risk management tool
in agriculture. One provides an analysis of current agricultural risks and available risk management instruments in agriculture and recognises climate change as a growing risk; the other looks into insurance against weather and climate-related risks focusing on private property and agriculture. The two studies point to uneven availability and uptake of climate-related risk insurance among Member States, as well as differences in signalling and risk prevention capacity of the different instruments. Both point to multiperil crop insurance as an interesting avenue, but to the low uptake of such risk management tools. The studies recommend the integration and further support to risk management instruments in the framework of the agricultural policy, to strengthen
266 Energy, transport and buildings.
267 https://www.cencenelec.eu/standards/Guides/Pages/default.aspx
268 See footnote 113
269 See footnote 92
capacity to implement, manage and control such instruments, and to better link vulnerability, funding and insurance as a risk management tool.
Having regard to Disaster Risk Reduction and adaptation to climate change, the EU
Action Plan on the Sendai Framework includes actions on insurance. 270
There were some concrete activities in relation to insurance and climate adaptation, notably an expert group was created to consider how to collect better data on losses, as it is easier to convince people to take adaptation actions when shown that this can reduce losses.
Financial services are the major source of investments made in new infrastructure, which should be climate resilient. For example, the insurance sector not only provides insurance to assist in recovery from damages, it also relies on investing the premiums it receives to generate an income to cover future claims (risk transfer). As a result, the insurance sector is the largest institutional investor in infrastructure in Europe, with more than EUR 10 trillion of assets under its management.
The Capital Markets Union (CMU) 271 seeks to create the enabling conditions for new
forms of funding to be developed and strengthened for small firms, as well as for longterm and infrastructure investment. It aims to use financial innovations to bridge the information gap between investors and businesses. The CMU also seeks to mobilise private capital to fund sustainable investment by identifying ways to create financial regulation that accelerates the shift of private capital toward environmentally and socially sustainable projects.
As part of the CMU efforts, the Commission also established and supported the work of a High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance, which produced a final report in
January 2018. 272 The main findings of the Group were based around priority actions,
many of which were taken on board by the Commission, who in March 2018 proposed an EU action plan on financing sustainable growth. 273 Some relevant actions and proposals in the new action plan are:
• Subject to the results of its impact assessment, a Commission legislative proposal
on the development of an EU classification system for sustainable economic
activities.
• Creating EU labels for green financial products to enable investors to identify
investments easily that comply with green or low-carbon criteria. The Commission will propose a delegated act on the content of the prospectus for
green bond issuances.
• Subject to the results of its impact assessment, a Commission legislative proposal
to clarify institutional investors' and asset managers' duties on sustainability and to increase transparency of end-investors, including transparency on their strategy
and climate-related exposures.
• Requiring insurance and investment firms to advise clients on the basis of their
preferences on sustainability. Subject to the results of their impact assessment, the
270 See footnote 94
271 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/growth-and-investment/capital-markets-union_en
272 Financing a sustainable European economy, European Commission, 2018. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/180131-sustainable-finance-final-report_en.pdf
273 See footnote 98
Commission will propose delegated acts regarding the suitability assessment in the Insurance Distribution Directive and the Markets in Financial Instruments
Directive
• Work towards incorporating climate risks into institutions' risk management
policies and on the potential calibration of banks' capital requirements in the Capital Requirement Regulation and Directive to take into account climate change-related risks while safeguarding financial stability and ensuring coherence
with the EU taxonomy.
• Enhancing transparency in corporate reporting; with a proposal to revise the
guidelines on non-financial information to further align them with the
recommendations of the Financial Stability Board's Task Force on Climaterelated
Financial Disclosures 274 . Subject to the result of its impact assessment,
the Commission will draft a proposal requiring asset managers and institutional
investors to disclose how they consider sustainability factors in their investment
decision making process.
Regarding infrastructure investments, a delegated act 275 under the Solvency II Directive 276 was amended in September 2015. These amendments are aimed at making it
cheaper for EU insurance companies to invest in qualifying infrastructure projects by establishing and calibrating investment risk categories for such projects. The
Commission has also introduced measures 277 to review risk calibrations for investment in infrastructure corporates 278 . In order to encourage private investment by banks in
infrastructure, the Commission proposal to amend the Capital Requirements Regulation
and Directive (CRR/CRD IV) 279 would create a more risk-sensitive regulatory
environment to promote high-quality infrastructure projects and reduce risks for investors.
274 https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/
275 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/467 of 30 September 2015 amending Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 concerning the calculation of regulatory capital requirements for several categories of assets held by insurance and reinsurance undertakings.
276 See footnote 97
277 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/1542 of 8 June 2017 amending Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 concerning the calculation of regulatory capital requirements for certain categories of assets held by insurance and reinsurance undertakings (infrastructure corporates).
278 Infrastructure corporates are a new asset class created in EU rules which represent infrastructure businesses which are already operational (in contrast to infrastructure projects), for example airports, which may have additional investment requirements to expand or redevelop their infrastructure.
279 These are the Capital Requirements Directive and Capital Requirements Regulation which set out regulations for the prudential requirements of the banking sector to ensure that it can better absorb economic shocks and continue to finance economic activity and growth. The rules were updated in 2013, the so called CRR/CRD IV package, with the amendments part of the response to the financial crisis.
-
11.Summary of costs related to the Strategy
Summary of costs per year and action, EUR millions
Resource Prior Action inputs / to 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
burdens 2013
Commission’s core activity
A1 Member State 0.04
adaptation Commission 280 0.0
strategies Interviews suggest Member States' resources for
scoreboard update are negligible.
MS 0.0
A2 LIFE funding Commission 190.1 281
MS Voluntary contributions as co-funding 0.0
Private Voluntary contributions as co-funding 0.0
Commission 0.87 0.53 0.56 0.6 0.55 0.80 3.9
A3 Covenant of 282
Mayors
MS 9.84 9.84 9.84 9.84 39.36
Commission > 225.5 225.5283
A4 Knowledge
gaps MS Voluntary contributions as co-funding 0.0
Private Voluntary contributions as co-funding 0.0
A5 Climate Commission 0.13 0.25 0.12 0.25 0.0.15 0.9
ADAPT 284
MS 0.0
280 A large, complex study was conducted by the Commission in 2011 to prepare the Strategy. A subtask estimated to cost EUR 35k was dedicated to support the development of the guidance for preparation of national adaptation state, which was published at the same time as the Strategy in 2013.
281 The total funding for adaptation allocated in the LIFE Multiannual Work programme for 2014-2017.
282 Figures for the Commission relate to 4 contracts implemented since 2011 to fund the adaptation dimension of the Covenant of Mayors/Mayors Adapt. The figures also include the first year of a 3-year administrative arrangement between DG CLIMA and the JRC to fund the latter's support to the Covenant of Mayors for EUR 400 000 (for 2017, EUR 0.65 million for the work of the Covenant of Mayors Office and EUR 0.13 million for the work of the JRC). The Commission also funds local mitigation in the EU, and beyond, under the Covenant of Mayors and the related work of the JRC.
283 The figures are totals based on an analysis of specific adaptation-themed projects and contracts funded by H2020. Other projects funded by FP7, EEA, JRC, DG CLIMA were also identified but without accurate estimates of costs, therefore, whilst relevant these are not included, except for noting that the total will be greater than (>) the EUR 225 million in the table.
284 Data provided by EEA including a list of Commission funded contracts for Climate-ADAPT 2013-2017 for information technology development and Capacity building and knowledge assessments. Also included an assessment of EEA staff and financial resources, totalling 2 Full-time equivalent (1 Fulltime equivalent = assumed to have EUR 75 000 annual cost) and other resources.
Resource Prior Action inputs / to 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
burdens 2013
EEA 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.47 0.37 1.95
Commission
A6 Climate 0.49285
0.5
proofing
MS No data available 0.0
Commission
A7 Resilient 0.11286
0.1
infrastructure
Private 0.0
A8 Insurance287 Commission 0.0
Commission 422.7
Total MS 39.36
Private 0.1
Notes and sources: Gaps in the table signify that no data was found for this specific
item, although in reality there may still have been relevant costs incurred.
285 Single contract issued by the Commission for preparing guidelines for the implementation of Action 6 by managing authorities, covering ESIF/CAP/EARDF. Guidelines for the CFP were not in the scope of that study or in the Impact Assessment and are, therefore, excluded.
286 The cost represents a contract to prepare the guidelines for project managers.
287 No costs are included as these were not estimated in the Impact Assessment. Although under this action, a Green paper on insurance was published together with the Strategy in 2013, the costs of its development are unaccounted, as green papers constitute the core business of the Commission.
-
12.Coherence with other EU policies
Action 1 focuses on the development of strategies and plans to promote resilience at Member State level. The work carried out within this action is very relevant and coherent with EU objectives and legislation on disaster risk reduction. For example, the support and knowledge developed on risk and vulnerability assessments, as an important step of adaptation planning, is in line with the objective in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism legislation on disaster risk management planning and risk assessment . The scoreboard developed by the Commission to assess preparedness in Member States and its indicators are closely linked to those developed under the Hyogo Framework for Action 288 . Moreover, the coordination of disaster risk management and adaptation policies is explicitly mentioned in the scoreboard. Coherent monitoring and evaluation practices are important for DRR and adaptation. Joint work on indicators is of high relevance, for instance, in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework.
In November, the Commission adopted a Communication to Strengthen EU disaster Management. The Communication highlights the importance of prevention as part of the disaster risk management cycle, as well as the need to reinforce coherence with other key EU policies acting, inter alia, in the field of climate change adaptation. In the recent Commission proposal for the EU civil protection mechanism legislation, Member States are requested to produce prevention and preparedness plans which need to include longer-term prevention efforts, looking at the overall adaptation to the increasing impacts of climate change.
Action 3 is focusing on the implementation of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative. High level of coherence was maintained with other legislative instruments and urban initiatives, in the areas of water, environment and disaster risk reduction. For example, the European Urban Water Agenda, the European Green Leaf and Green Capital Awards initiatives, the new tool for cities assessing their environmental performance, the 2017 Action Plan for nature, people and economy, just to mention a few, are implemented in close cooperation with Action 3. Coherence with disaster risk reduction policy is fostered in particular through indicators. The indicators of the Covenant of Mayors were developed in due consideration of indicators adopted for the Sendai DRR framework.
Furthermore, the urban dimension of the many EU policies is gaining importance after the establishment of the Urban Agenda for the EU, within which the newly established Climate Adaptation Partnership started a potentially new area of work. All these new developments offer opportunities to reap further benefits from more coordination and mainstreaming of urban adaptation action.
Actions 6, 7 and 8, under the Strategy’s “Climate-proofing EU action” objective, are focused on key areas of the EU’s budget. They show a high level of coherence between adaptation priorities and the relevant policy areas. For Action 6, the literature review suggested it complements (and is reinforced by) the high-level political commitment to spend at least 20% of the EU budget on climate objectives given that the CAP, Cohesion Policy and the CFP make up around 70% of the total EU budget. However, current work
288 The HFA is a 10-year guideline to reduce vulnerabilities to natural hazards. It was endorsed by the UN General Assembly in the Resolution A/RES/60/195 following the 2005 World Disaster Reduction Conference.
on the mainstreaming process in relation to the EU budget suggests that the absence of a coordinating mechanism to focus the 20% of expenditure on the priorities most likely to deliver climate outcomes, and the lack of a distinction between mitigation and adaptation
investment, limits the impact of the 20% commitment. 289 This is a complex undertaking,
because there are synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation to be considered when tracking expenditure or developing policy, such as:
• Sustainable management of ecosystems to implement simultaneously mitigation
and adaptation actions, for example, by conserving forests to protect natural
stores of carbon within trees and decrease soil erosion or water flows.
• Urban densification is good for mitigation but may exacerbate vulnerability by
increasing heat island effects and heat impacts (in turn driving up cooling demand). Similarly, increased use of biomass can affect land and water
availability for green infrastructure or nature-based solutions.
There is a need to better track expenditure under the CAP and Cohesion Policy that delivers real adaptation benefits. While there is a tendency to simply assume that appropriately labelled CAP and Cohesion Policy expenditure is relevant to adaptation, there is scope to better define how the spending should contribute to resilience both generally in the Strategy and in the specific programme legislation.
Action 7 (ensuring more resilient infrastructure) is translated into a set of guidelines, which have clear potential to improve coherence in practice. Ensuring coherence between adaptation and new infrastructure at the EU level is a complicated task given the potential long-term lock-in effects.
-
13.Coherence with international policies
This section presents in more detail the relevance of different international frameworks for EU adaptation policy, as a complement to Chapter 3.
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has undertaken extensive work related to ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. 290 Two of the CBD's Aichi targets (10 and 15) 291 aim at minimizing the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Voluntary Guidelines on ecosystem-based adaptation and disaster risk reduction are under preparation for adoption at CBD COP XIV in November 2018.
In 2015, the Agenda 2030 and the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals 292 for 2030 were adopted, many of which are either directly or indirectly relevant for climate change adaptation (e.g. Goal 13 on climate action, Goal 11 on sustainable and resilient cities) and towards which the related actions under the EU Adaptation Strategy contribute.
The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in the EU's development policies is coordinated and ensured at all stages of the planning and implementation process. In addition, the main channel for EU support to policy dialogue and climate action in developing countries is the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA+) initiative. The overall objective of the GCCA+ is to foster policy dialogue and cooperation on climate
289 See footnote 253
290 CBD COP X/33; COP XII/20; COP XIII/4; technical series reports 41, 85 amongst others
291 https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/
292 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/
change between the EU and developing countries which are most vulnerable to climate change and to contribute to their action to address climate change. The GCCA+ is evolving with the aim of contributing to the sectoral implementation of NDCs, thus also covering mitigation actions, along the lines of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. It will nevertheless also continue supporting National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Disaster Risk reduction strategies.
Lessons learned in planning for and implementing the Strategy, including scientific knowledge and tools gained, provide input to the process. In addition, the core principles promoted by the Strategy – such as mainstreaming climate risks and vulnerabilities in planning, developing national and sub-national plans, promoting risk transfer mechanisms – are well aligned with core principles of EU development cooperation.
It should also be noted that the CBD’s Aichi Targets, adopted under the CBD’s Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-sharing, particularly Targets 10 and 15, emphasise climate impacts and resilience, and that action under the Strategy contributes towards
their delivery. 293 As part of the post-2015 development agenda, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 294 was created with seven targets and four priorities of action. To translate this framework into EU action, in July 2016 the
Commission published an Action Plan 295 on the implementation of the Sendai
Framework.
293 https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/
294 The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 was adopted at the Third UN World Conference in Sendai, Japan, on March 18, 2015.
295 Commission Staff Working Document: Action Plan on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, SWD(2016) 205 final/2.
Annex IX Horizontal assessment of the adaptation
preparedness country fiches
-
1.Background and objectives
The European Commission adopted the Communication: “An EU Strategy on Adaptation
to Climate Change” in April 2013 296 . The Communication states that “The overall aim of
the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe. This means enhancing the preparedness and capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change at local, regional, national and EU levels, developing a coherent approach and improving coordination.” The Strategy defines three objectives and eight actions to meet this aim. Action 1 is to “Encourage all Member States to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies” and includes a commitment that “By 2014, the Commission will develop an adaptation preparedness scoreboard, identifying key indicators for measuring Member States’ level of readiness.”
The Commission’s discussions with Member States on the adaptation preparedness scoreboard began in 2013. A detailed draft scoreboard methodology was subsequently developed, largely based on an approach recommended in the Commission guidelines on developing adaptation strategies 297 , and was published on the Climate-Adapt website 298 . This methodology was used by the Commission in 2015 to undertake an unpublished pilot assessment and produce a national scoreboard of each Member State’s performance.
Based on the lessons learned from the pilot phase, the Commission revised the scoreboard methodology by streamlining the indicators and defining criteria for assessing them, categories of information sought and guidance to enable a consistent approach to analysing the state of play in Member States. The Commission consulted Member States on the modified scoreboard methodology (see Annex X) and carried out a second assessment, as part of the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy in 2017-2018. The resultant draft country fiches, including the national scoreboards, were published in December 2017, in conjunction with the public consultation on the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy.
A further review of the national scoreboards and country fiches was undertaken in April and June 2018 to take account of recent developments and to ensure the quality and coherence of the country fiches. The final documents accompany this evaluation as a
separate Staff Working Document. 299
296 European Commission (2013). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, COM (2013) 216 final i. Brussels: European Union. Available from http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52013DC0216&from=EN
297 European Commission. (2013). Commission Staff Working Document: Guidelines on developing adaptation strategies, SWD (2013) 134 final. Brussels: European Commission. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/adaptation/what/docs/swd_2013_134_en.pdf
298 See: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/guidances/guidelines-on-developing-adaptation href="https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/guidances/guidelines-on-developing-adaptation-strategies">strategies
299 See footnote 49.
-
2.Method
The adaptation preparedness scoreboard methodology addresses 11 main performance areas in relation to the five steps of the adaptation cycle (see Figure IX-1 below). The scoreboard methodology and detailed indicator list can be found in Annex X. A country fiche was developed for each Member State that provides:
• Contextual data on the national adaptation policy framework for each Member
State, including dates when national adaptation strategies (NAS) and national adaptation plans (NAP) were adopted and revised
• A narrative in relation to each of the indicators based on the criteria for assessing
them. The status of each of the indicators was assessed in relation to this narrative as either already having been met (“Yes”) or, for some indicators, as progressively being met by ongoing implementation (“In progress”), or as not met
(“No”)
• A summary table of the status of all indicators (the national adaptation
preparedness scoreboard).
The information used to produce the country fiches was drawn from a review of relevant literature and, in many cases, interacting with Member State representatives.
The narrative and assessment of status in relation to each indicator were reviewed horizontally across all 28 Member States using the scoreboard methodology (see Annex X) to check that the nature and level of information and scoring were consistent.
The information on the national policy frameworks, the narrative associated with the indicators and resultant scores in the final country fiches were used as a basis for this horizontal assessment of the adaptation preparedness of Member States.
Figure IX-1. The adaptation preparedness scoreboard’s 11 main performance areas in relation to the five steps of the adaptation policy cycle
•Preparing the ground 1. A country-wide governance system is in place for adaptation policy making and vertical and horizontal coordination arrangements are in place between governmental bodies
Step A 2. Stakeholders (e.g. interest groups, scientists and general public) are involved in the preparation of adaptation policies
•Assessing risks and vulnerabilities to climate change
-
3.Systems are in place to monitor and assess current and projected climate
change, impacts and vulnerability
-
4.Knowledge gaps on climate change and climate change adaptation are
Step B tackled 5. Knowledge transfer processes are in place to build adaptive capacity across sectors
•Assessing risks and vulnerabilities to climate change
-
6.For priority sectors, a range of adaptation options is considered, consistent
with the results of sectoral risk assessments and taking into account good
practices and measures
Step C 7. Dedicated and adequate funding resources have been identified and made available to implement adaptation action
•Implementing adaptation action 8. Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into priority and key national planning and sectoral policymaking
Step D 9. Climate change adaptation policies and measures are implemented
•Monitoring and evaluation 10. Systems are in place to monitor and report on climate change adaptation, including adaptation-related expenditures, via relevant indicators
Step E 11. An evaluation framework is in place to assess whether adaptation policy objectives are met and a periodic review of the adaptation strategy is planned
Methodological limitations
The country fiches were the result of a desk-based exercise, so their accuracy is entirely reliant on the availability of published information and on the input received from Member State representatives.
The scores for each indicator (“Yes”, “No”, or “In progress”) assess the state of play within each country. They should only be considered at a Member State level alongside the narrative that accompanies them in the country fiches. While effort was made to ensure consistency across fiches in the assessment of each individual indicator, scores should not be directly compared across the Member States. The assessment of status requires subjective assimilation of a number of factors, including availability of information, so two countries with a "Yes" in relation to the same indicator may have different national situations leading to that assessment. Nevertheless, some of the indicators with the simplest criteria (e.g. Indicators 1a and 8a, see Annex X) may be more comparable and aggregable than those that have numerous, complex criteria and information requirements (e.g. Indicators 6a, 6b and 9a).
The scoreboard methodology only provides an option for some specific indicators to be scored as "In progress". Scoring the other indicators definitively, as “Yes” or “No”, was challenging where insufficient information was published and further verifiable information could not be readily provided by Member State representatives.
Scores were based on strategies, plans and policies that were already adopted. No account was taken in the scoring of proposed documents in development or consultation at the time of the assessment. This was the case even where proposals were described in the country fiches and the adoption of strategies, plans or policies was potentially imminent.
In developing this horizontal assessment, it was important to bear in mind these limitations in the way that the country fiches were produced and national scoreboards were determined. It is equally important that they are borne in mind by readers of this report to avoid over interpretation of the results, analysis and conclusions.
-
3.Results and analysis
The dates when Member States 300 adopted and revised a NAS and/or a NAP 301 provide important context for the interpretation of the scoreboard assessment (Table IX-1). A total of 25 Member States have adopted an NAS. Although Bulgaria, Croatia and Latvia have not yet adopted a NAS, the documents are drafted and likely to be adopted in 2018.
300 Country codes used throughout section 3 are explained in section 5 of this Annex.
301 Different terms are used by different Member States, but these documents essentially capture similar elements. In general, an NAS provides overarching objectives while a NAP includes more specific details on actions to be taken.
Table IX-1. Adoption of first NASs and NAPs
Year Adoption of 1 st NAS Adoption of 1 st NAP
2005 FI
2006 ES, FR ES (1 st NAP)
2007 NL (1 st NAS)
2008 DE, DK, HU*
2009 ES (2 nd NAP)
st
2010 BE, PT (1 st NAS) HU (1 NAP only for 2009- 2010)
2011 LU* DE, FR
2012 AT (1
st NAS), IE (1 st NAS), LT,
st
MT AT (1 NAP), DK
2013 PL, RO (1 st NAS), UK* ES (3 rd NAP), LT (1 st NAP), UK
2014 SK FI
2015 CZ, IT, PT (2 nd NAS)
nd
2016 EL, NL (2 NAS), RO (2
nd nd
NAS), SI LT (2 NAP), RO
2017 AT (2 nd NAS), CY, EE AT (2 nd NAP), BE, CZ, CY, EE
2018 IE (2 nd NAS), SE rd IE, LT (3 NAP), SK, NL
To be adopted/
draft available BG, HR, LV BG, EL, HR, IT, LU, LV, PT, SI
-
*The revision of the first NAS is currently ongoing and is expected to be completed in 2018.
An analysis is set out below in relation to each step of the adaptation policy cycle and each of the 11 main areas of performance. Member States that have achieved positive scores in relation to indicators are listed wherever there are less than 10 of them or for indicators where such information may be important to those Member States that are yet to make progress in that specific regard. Listing of Member States in this way should not be interpreted as meaning that their actions in relation to an indicator are comparable; inevitably different Member States’ relevant actions vary widely, as noted under ‘Methodological limitations’ (above).
Step A: Preparing the ground for adaptation
-
1.A country-wide governance system is in place for adaptation policy making and vertical and horizontal coordination arrangements are in place between governmental bodies
All Member States have a central administration body officially in charge of adaptation policy making.
Systematic coordination across sectors at a national level is in place in 23 Member States, and is applied in relation to drafting of the NAS and subsequent implementation.
Currently, there is systematic coordination across national, regional and local levels of administration in only 16 Member States (BG, DE, EE, EL, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, IT, LT, NL, PT, RO, SK, UK), but progress is being made in a further 10 to enable lower levels of administration to influence policy making. In almost all of these Member States (22 out of 26) where vertical coordination is in place in some form, the involvement of subnational governance levels does not seem to have a sectoral focus. Vertical coordination can take place not only during the drafting of the NAS but can also be sustained during implementation. Involvement in both drafting and implementation has taken place in 16 Member States (AT, DE, DK, EE, EL, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, LT, NL, PT, RO, SK, UK). Box 1 presents a selection of good examples of how vertical coordination mechanisms support adaptation sub-nationally.
Box 1. Vertical coordination mechanisms: supporting sub-national adaptation
The extent of vertical coordination has important implications for the level of involvement of sub-national governance bodies in adaptation policy making. For instance, in Germany, a working group on climate adaptation under the Conference of Environmental Ministers meets twice a year to provide opportunity for the federal states to input into policy-making at the national level, to exchange experiences of NAS processes at the federal-state level, and to coordinate joint activities. Similarly, vertical coordination among national, regional and local authorities is achieved in Greece through the National Climate Change Adaptation Committee, which includes representatives from the Union of Greek Regions and the Central Union of Greek Municipalities. In Ireland, a network of four Climate Action Regional Offices has been established to drive climate action at regional and local levels by building expertise and capacity within the 31 local authorities. A complex vertical coordination structure is also in place in France to involve inter-communal and regional governance levels in adaptation policymaking and implementation. Sweden also has established a vertical coordination mechanism to support adaptation policy-making at the sub-national level, although the mechanism is different in nature compared to those in other Member States, as a result of Sweden’s highly devolved governance structure. Since 2009, the administrative boards of the regions have been responsible for coordinating adaptation at regional level and supporting the adaptation work of local authorities. In March 2018, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) published new step-by-step guidance for municipalities working on climate adaptation. 302
While the involvement of sub-national governance levels does not seem to have a sectoral focus in most Member States, vertical coordination puts a specific emphasis on flooding issues in Denmark. In 2013, after mandating municipalities to develop their adaptation action plans, the Danish Government established a national task force with detailed and specific expertise in local adaptation issues, which developed web-based mapping of flood, rainfall and storm-surge risk for various time horizons, modelled according to IPCC 2007 scenarios. A team of subject specialists on adaptation, flooding, and erosion was also established by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency and Coastal Authority with the aim to advise, guide, support, and help coordinate municipalities in implementing adaptation solutions. Latvia is another example of a country where vertical coordination has a sectoral focus. Latvian municipalities and planning regions are involved in the development of climate adaptation policy in the following sectors: civil protection and emergency planning, building and infrastructure, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and agriculture, fishery and forestry.
At the city level, involvement in the EU Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy 303 provides a sound mechanism to foster city-level adaptation policy making. In some cases, this is augmented by further support from national initiatives. For instance, the Spanish Network of Cities for Climate was created in 2009 by the Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces and the Spanish Ministry of Environment to coordinate, foster and provide technical support and to contribute to the translation of the national climate and energy objectives at the local level. Another good example is provided by the Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic, which has officially committed to providing strategic guidance, financial and technical support to local authorities that are signatories to the Covenant. The Ministry has, therefore, been recognised by the European Commission as a Covenant National Coordinator.
-
2.Stakeholders (e.g. interest groups, scientists and general public) are involved in the preparation of adaptation policies
With only two exceptions, all Member States have a dedicated process in place to facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the preparation of adaptation policies. Most country fiches indicate that a wide range of stakeholders have been consulted, including the private sector, non-governmental organisations, research organisations and universities, as well as the general public, in addition to government departments and local authorities (Figure IX-2).
302 See: http://www.klimatanpassning.se/en/news-archive/new-guide-will-help-municipalities-with href="http://www.klimatanpassning.se/en/news-archive/new-guide-will-help-municipalities-with-adaptation-to-climate-change-1.132803">adaptation-to-climate-change-1.132803
303 See: www.covenantofmayors.eu
Figure IX-2. Types of stakeholders involved in the preparation of adaptation policy
All but one Member State integrated transboundary cooperation to address common challenges with relevant countries, almost invariably with regard to water, and more occasionally with regard to biodiversity, energy, health and “other” issues, including mountain ranges (Figure IX-3). The extent of transboundary cooperation and whether it is driven by the NAS/NAP varies between Member States, with 15 of the Member States having addressed this dimension in the NAS/NAP. Other drivers include international initiatives (e.g. the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, and the Alpine Convention), and EU initiatives (e.g. EU macro-regional strategies) and projects. Examples of transboundary cooperation are presented in Box 2.
Figure IX-3. Sectoral transboundary cooperation on adaptation issues
Box 2. Examples of transboundary cooperation
The Czech Republic provides a unique and interesting example of transboundary cooperation, as it consulted with the Slovak authorities during the development of the Czech NAS. Transboundary cooperation on adaptation has also been fostered by the British-Irish Council. In 2018, the Council’s 15 th ministerial meeting focused on how shared challenges on climate adaptation can be jointly tackled. Portugal also sets a good example in this regard, as one of the thematic focal areas of the NAS is international cooperation. A specific working group was established to foster this action and, particularly, to establish an Iberian cooperation system. An EU co-financed LIFE project, the SAHARA project 304 , supports this action.
In addition to LIFE funding, the EU Cohesion Policy supports transboundary adaptation projects (via Interreg projects). About 1,470 territorial cooperation projects dealing with climate change, risks management and sustainable management of natural resources have been identified 305 , nearly 15% of more than 9,816 projects funded during the programming period 2007-2013. For example, relevant projects include the Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Alpine Space project (ClimChAlp), the Adaptation Strategies in Transboundary Areas project (STRADA), and the Climate Change Capitalisation project (C3-Alps) in which AT, DE, IT, FR, SI (CH and LI) are involved. In addition, the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory (OPCC) provides a knowledge platform about adaptation to climate change in the Pyrenees covering FR and ES bordering regions and Andorra. 306
During the summer of 2017, the Interact network launched a thematic network on Climate Change and Risks 307 in order to support the Interreg projects. This network brings together practitioners from the Interreg community, regional stakeholders, experts and other EU programmes and knowledge communities active in the field of climate change and risks. Its overall goal is to facilitate the exchange of practices and lessons learnt and to gain further knowledge.
EU-driven transboundary adaptation action is translated through the four macroregional strategies 308 that involve 19 Member States. For instance, the EU Strategy for the Danube Region puts a special focus on adaptation to extreme weather events and provides an important platform to foster cooperation between AT, BG, CZ, DE, HR, HU, RO, SK and SI on joint monitoring and flood management. At the same time, this cooperation has benefitted from the prior existence of the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River 309 (ICPDR) under which a specific adaptation strategy was adopted in 2012. The existence of other international river basin committees (e.g. on the Meuse or the Sava) also foster joint climate adaptation actions in other Member States.
In addition to extensive transboundary cooperation on river basins, multiple initiatives exist for mountain ranges and for biodiversity. While these initiatives cover a wide range of issues adaptation to climate change is also addressed. For
304 See more about LIFE projects at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/project/Projects/index.cfm
305 Based on the KEEP database: https://www.keep.eu/keep/ – a comprehensive database regarding the territorial cooperation projects and beneficiaries in Europe
306 See more about Interreg projects at: https://www.interregeurope.eu/discover-projects/
307 http://www.interact-eu.net/contact?field_fields_of_expertise_tid=All&field_networks_tid=81
308 The EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, the EU Strategy for the Danube Region, the EU Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region and the EU Strategy for the Alpine Region. See: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/policy/cooperation/macro-regional-strategies/
309 See: http://www.icpdr.org/main/
example, transboundary cooperation between AT, DE, FR, IT, SI and LI and CH is fostered by the EU-Strategy for the Alpine Region (EUSALP), and climate adaptation is specifically considered by the ‘risk governance’ and ‘green infrastructure’ action groups. Furthermore, international conventions on the Alps 310 and Carpathians 311 are in place. There is also transboundary cooperation with non-EU Members on biodiversity and adaptation issues in Northern Europe. The Fennoscandia Green Belt initiative supports a joint nature conservation cooperation between Finland, Norway and Russia and, among other foci, on threats to ecosystem services from climate change.
Finally, there is a wide range of trilateral initiatives focused on adaptation issues. Examples include the cooperation between Benelux countries (BE, NL and LU), which have cooperated on climate change issues since 2014, the trilateral Wadden Sea cooperation between DK, DE and NL, and the cooperation agreements between CY, EL and Egypt, and CY, EL and Israel. In 2017, the latter focused on the exchange of knowledge and know-how on adaptation policy monitoring, evaluation and good practice at regional and local scales.
Step B: Assessing risks and vulnerabilities to climate change
-
3.Systems are in place to monitor and assess current and projected climate change, impacts and vulnerability
A total of 14 Member States have established observation systems to monitor climate change, extreme climate events and their impacts, and systems are being developed in all of the other Member States. According to the country fiches, Member States collect data on climate impacts in relation to multiple types of variables. Those most commonly captured are sectors affected (14 Member States), costs (12 Member States), and number of people affected (six Member States: BE, FR, IT, LU NL, RO). 312
Climate change scenarios and projections are available at national level for 25 Member States, and at a sub-national for 10 Member States. Only three Member States rely solely on international data. Climate change scenarios and projections are being used to assess future economic, social and environmental impacts in at least 23 Member States, with others steadily making progress in this respect.
Sound climate risk and/or vulnerability assessments for priority sectors are being undertaken to support adaptation decision making by at least 22 Member States, with all but one of the other Member States making progress in that regard. The frequency with which different sectors are addressed is shown in Figure IX-4. In addition to those sectors specified in the figure, small numbers of Member States addressed a wide range of “Other” individual sectors or themes, including: coastal; desertification; disaster risk management; economy; finance; ICT networks; infrastructure; insurance; land use; maritime; mountains; natural environment; society; soil; spatial planning; tourism; urban; and waste management. Three Member States (DE, SI, UK) were identified as having assessed all vulnerable sectors. Climate risk and/or vulnerability assessments are:
310 See: http://www.alpconv.org
311 See: http://www.carpathianconvention.org/
312 Climate impact monitoring is not in place in five Member States.
coordinated centrally in 22 Member States, although in six of these countries further assessments have been driven by independent research projects or scientific organisations; sector driven in three countries (PL, PT, SE), albeit independently in one
case; and carried out as a wholly independent research project in NL. 313
A recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report 314 concluded that a variety of
approaches is used for impact and vulnerability assessments, including literature review, dedicated research programmes and projects, model-based studies and stakeholder-driven processes. Most of the assessments have a broad scope, with up to 19 different sectors and thematic areas covered, such as in the case of FI and UK. The EEA report found that similar categories to those cited in Figure IX-4 (below) are addressed in the assessments.
Figure IX-4. Categories of sectors where climate risk/vulnerability assessments are undertaken 315
Transboundary risks are taken into account in a coordinated manner by three Member States across all or a wide range of sectors (DE, FI, PT) when undertaking climate risk and/or vulnerability assessments. A total of 19 Member States are assessing transboundary risks primarily in relation to the water sector. Consideration of transboundary risks is driven by the NAS in three Member States (UK, plus FI and PT also being driven at a project level) whereas in other countries it is sector-driven or implemented at a project level.
-
4.Knowledge gaps on climate change and climate change adaptation are tackled
Work is being carried out to identify, prioritise and address the knowledge gaps in 15 Member States (Figure IX-5, below, categorises the knowledge gaps identified in these country fiches). A further 11 countries have identified knowledge gaps but there seems to be limited activity to address the gaps through further research and work. In most of
313 It has not been possible to establish whether or not information on climate risk and/or vulnerability assessments is coordinated for one Member State.
314 EEA, 2018, National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018, European Environment Agency, EEA Report 1/2018, ISSN 1977-8449 (https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-climate-change-vulnerability-2018)
315 It has not been possible to establish the sectoral coverage of climate risk/vulnerability assessments undertaken for one Member State.
the countries, the NAS includes actions related to knowledge but one-off projects are the primary driver in four countries.
Box 3 (below) summarises principles emerging from the country fiches for good practices in addressing climate change and climate adaptation knowledge gaps. In the
EEA report on national impact and vulnerability assessments 316 , most mentioned
knowledge gaps and themes where additional knowledge needs remain today are the consideration of non-climatic factors, cross-sectoral interactions and cross-border impacts, common metrics for impacts and vulnerabilities, uncertainties, long-term adaptation and targeted communication.
Figure IX-5. Types of knowledge gaps identified in countries where work is ongoing to address them
Box 3. Principles for good practices in addressing knowledge gaps
Principles for good practices emerging from the country fiches include:
• Member States taking responsibility.
National authorities initiate and fund research programmes in order to invest in evidence-based adaptation. Examples: AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FI,
FR, PT, SE, UK.
• Linking research and policy to ensure timely results.
Waiting for research results need not be a barrier to implementation. In several Member States, knowledge development occurs together with the policy process, starting with awareness raising, development of scenarios and vulnerability analysis, progressing to applied research and technological development, and supporting application of results in
316 EEA, 2018, National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018, European
Environment Agency, EEA Report 1/2018, ISSN 1977-8449 (https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-climate-change-vulnerability-2018)
practice. Examples: AT, BE, DE, DK, FI, NL, UK.
• Breadth of knowledge development enables identification of key
vulnerabilities.
Many Member States identify sectoral vulnerabilities, setting priorities that matter most to their economies or are most relevant to their geographical situation. Examples: AT, FR, HR, IE, SI, UK.
• Research responsibilities are shared between researchers and other
stakeholders.
Several countries structure research programmes to coordinate effort and enable input from research institutes, sub-national governments, nongovernmental organisations and the private sector. Examples: AT, BE, DE, DK, FI, NL, UK.
• Addressing knowledge gaps is a path-dependent, self-reinforcing process.
Investment in the development of knowledge on climate change and climate adaptation seems more likely in countries that already have a strong research base, including a high-level meteorological office. Larger Member States with greater critical mass are better able to close knowledge gaps. Examples: DE, FR, UK. Smaller countries and countries with a small research budget make progress by becoming involved in European research projects and by cooperating with countries that face similar issues. Examples: MT, PT, SI.
-
5.Knowledge transfer processes are in place to build adaptive capacity across sectors
Adaptation-related data and information (e.g. climate projections, vulnerability and risk assessments, adaptation tools) are available to all stakeholders, including policy makers, in 17 Member States. At least some stakeholders have access to such information in a further nine Member States. A total of 19 of these countries have a national web-based platform for disseminating information. In addition, at least one of the countries without a national platform has a regional platform covering part of the Member State. In
2014 317 , only 12 Member States had a dedicated adaptation platform, while also
transnational regions such as the Alpine, Baltic Sea or Pyrenees regions had a publicly available adaptation platform.
Coordination of associated capacity-building activities (including education on climate adaptation concepts and practices, and dissemination of training materials), usually driven by the NAS or NAP, is established in half of Member States. However, systematic actions on capacity building are being pursued in a further 11 countries.
317 EEA, 2015, Overview of climate change adaptation platforms in Europe, European Environment Agency, EEA Technical Report 5/2015, ISSN 1725-2237 (https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/overview-of-climate-change-adaptation)
Box 4 (below) summarises principles emerging from the country fiches for good practices in relation to knowledge transfer, including capacity building. The challenges are similar to the ones detected in the 2015 EEA report on adaptation platforms 318 : engaging with stakeholders, identifying relevant information and knowledge, effective presentation and linking platforms across sectors, scales and platforms. Nevertheless, funding and sustaining a platform and technical, structural and design elements of an adaptation platform were also mentioned as challenges.
Box 4. Good practices in knowledge transfer
Provision of a national website on climate change and climate adaptation is an obvious response to the need to facilitate knowledge transfer. It is an option currently being pursued by all but two Member States, however, the comprehensiveness and applicability of the information provided by such online platforms is highly variable. Good practices emerging from the country fiches address two challenges:
• How to make knowledge accessible and applicable?
Member States address this challenge by:
o Promoting uptake of knowledge by making information available in the local languages. Examples: AT, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, HU, LV, NL, PT, SE, UK;
o Presenting inspirational and practical case studies. Examples: AT, DK, FI, FR, PT, SE; and
o Using interactive websites to encourage input and to promote collaboration between different stakeholders. Examples: DK, ES, FR, HU, PT.
• How to guide non-scientific users through multiple sources of information?
Information on climate change and adaptation arising from more than two decades of research is now available, which is disseminated by numerous international and national websites, inside and outside the EU 319 . Some
Member States have sought to develop national websites that provide an overview and waymark information. Examples: DE, UK.
In addition to disseminating information, Member States can promote knowledge transfer through capacity building, which:
• Is especially relevant for sub-national governments, as demonstrated by
the country fiches. Examples: AT, DE, DK, IE, PT, SE, UK.
• Can be targeted to vulnerable sectors, such as forestry or health.
318 See footnote 317
319 The Evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy (2018) indicates that the EEA Climate-ADAPT website plays an important role in structuring adaptation information. Interviewees from national governments, in particular, noted that Climate-ADAPT is used as a starting point and, as it is interactive, it can be used by Member States to share their experiences.
Examples: CZ, DK, EE, ES, HR, PT, UK.
• Can include use of workshops that function as a two-way communication
channel, alerting national stakeholders to new sub-national issues and
vice versa. Examples: DE, ES, SE, UK.
• Some countries are seeking to achieve through interactions with the
general public and schools. Examples: AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, HR, IE, PT.
Step C: Identifying adaptation options
-
6.For priority sectors, a range of adaptation options is considered, consistent with the results of sectoral risk assessments and taking into account good practices and measures
Detailed risk and/or vulnerability assessments have been used by 25 Member States to identify adaptation options for at least a majority of priority sectors. The frequency with which different sectors are addressed is shown in Figure IX-6. In addition to those sectors specified in the figure, small numbers of Member States have addressed a wide range of “Other” individual sectors or themes, including: coastal; desertification; disaster risk management; economy; finance; ICT networks; infrastructure; insurance; land use; maritime; mountains; natural environment; society; soil; spatial planning; tourism; urban; and waste management. Six Member States (FR, NL, PL, PT, RO, SK) were identified as having assessed all priority sectors.
Figure IX-6. Risk assessments and adaptation options identified for priority sectors 320
The selection of adaptation options appears to be based on robust methods (e.g. multicriteria analyses and/or stakeholder consultations, see Box 5) in 24 Member States, which have also identified priority actions per sector. Four Member States have yet to progress robust identification and prioritisation of adaptation options.
320 Sectoral information on risk assessments and adaptation options is not available for one Member State.
Box 5. Prioritising options using multi-criteria analysis and stakeholder input
Prioritisation of adaptation options is important for the efficient and effective use of limited adaptation resources. Combining the use of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) 321 with literature, modelling, and stakeholder and/or expert input is a good way to achieve more robust outcomes. A selection of examples of Member States adopting such combined approaches are presented here.
In Croatia, a host of potential adaptation measures were identified during the development of the NAS. The measures were discussed with more than 130 stakeholders during a series of workshops, and MCA was used to prioritise each of them as a ‘very high, high or medium priority’ for implementation. As a result, 79 sectoral measures were selected, and divided into the five foci of the NAS. These measures were then aligned with spending priorities and programmes and 42 included as ‘very high priority’ measures in the draft NAS.
In Cyprus, the prioritisation of more than 200 adaptation measures, identified across the 11 sectors in the NAS, made use of stakeholder opinion surveys, which were then processed and evaluated using a MCA. Eight criteria were used in the MCA: 1) Efficiency of the measure; 2) Environmental concerns; 3) Supporting the prevention of climate change impacts; 4) Urgency for implementing the measure; 5) Usefulness of implementation irrespective of climate change; 6) Technical viability; 7) Economic viability; and, 8) Public acceptance. The MCA produced alternative adaptation scenarios based on different weightings of system vulnerabilities, evaluation criteria and stakeholder types. The highest performing options across the scenarios were taken forward in a ‘sustainable adaptation scenario’ and included in the NAS. Performance was ranked equally between the technical, environmental and social criteria, whilst economic aspects were evaluated in a separate cost-benefit analysis (CBA).
In the Czech Republic, adaptation options were selected using expert judgement and prioritised by different ministries and thematic working groups using an MCA. Measures were ranked according to four criteria: 1) multiple adaptation effects to tackle the impacts of climate change; 2) spill-over social, economic or mitigation impacts; 3) impact on the environment and ecosystems; and 4) financial needs for implementation. Criterion 1 was assessed by the thematic working groups and attributed a weight twice as important as the other three criteria, which were evaluated by external consultants. Based on the MCA, measures were categorised into priority one measures and priority two measures.
Similar combined approaches have also been used in Estonia, the Netherlands and the UK (England) among others.
321 MCA is an analytical approach that allows for quantitative and qualitative criteria to be analysed within the same single framework. It can be combined with weightings to produce rankings and/or scoring of the options being assessed to support decision making.
There has been less progress in coordinating disaster risk management and climate adaptation. Mechanisms are in place to ensure coherence between the two policies in only 10 Member States, although are in progress in 13 of the other countries (see Figure IX-7 below).
-
7.Dedicated and adequate funding resources have been identified and made available to implement adaptation action
Consistent funding is available for the implementation of adaptation actions to increase climate resilience in vulnerable sectors and in cross-cutting ways (e.g. national scenarios and climate services, capacity building, website) in only nine Member States (DE, DK, EE, ES, FR, LT, PT, RO, SE), but adaptation is financed in at least some sectors in all of the other countries, with one exception. The lack of funding that is specifically labelled for adaptation is also reflected in the fact that only 14 Member States include budget allocations in their NAS or NAP. 322
Step D: Implementing adaptation action
-
8.Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into priority and key national planning and sectoral policymaking
The country fiches identify that climate adaptation has been considered in the national frameworks for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in 21 Member States. However, only 15 Member States consider climate adaptation in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA).
Only nine Member States (CZ, FR, HU, LU, LV, NL, PT, RO, UK) have taken climate change impacts and projections into account in national disaster risk management plans and associated preparedness/prevention strategies. This is reflective of the current state of play in relation to coordination of disaster risk management and climate adaptation (see Point 6 above and Figure IX-7 below). Box 6 provides a selection of examples of good practice.
322 It is unclear whether or not there are budget allocations associated with the NAS in two Member States.
Figure IX-7. Coordination of disaster risk management plans with adaptation, and consideration of climate projections
Box 6. Coordinating disaster risk reduction and adaptation
Climate change is affecting vulnerability to hazards, changing patterns of exposure and thereby having a significant impact on the risk of natural disasters, which are likely to increase in frequency and severity. Promoting coordination between strategies and actions for adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and fostering systematic integration of climate science and knowledge in disaster risk assessments and management, is crucial for a coherent response to climate and disaster risk.
A small number of Member States exemplify good practice.
Disaster risk management in France is based on plans published at the level of each department, which set out how the response to a range of risks will be organised. These plans include the identification of key climate-related risks and take account of climate change and modelling (e.g. in the relation to flood risk zones). The plans ensure that climate impacts and projections are addressed in disaster prevention and preparedness strategies and management plans.
In the Netherlands, the Dutch Safety Regions 323 are mandated to address disaster risk management on their territory and base their plans on climate
323 These are 25 regions covering the entire country that have administrative responsibility for risk assessment and response. The emergency services (e.g. fire brigade, police and paramedics) cooperate and are organised in teams corresponding to the Safety Regions. The Safety Regions differ from the country’s 12 provinces. For further information see ‘Ministry of Security and Justice (nd) Safety
projections. In 2015, the ‘Water and Evacuation’ programme started, with the aim to improve the preparedness of the Dutch Safety Regions for the consequences of floods due to climate change. Between 2015 and 2017 instruments were developed and made publicly available to assist the Safety Regions in their preparedness for water-related disasters, including floods. The programme is monitored by the Steering Group Management Water Crises and Floods (Stuurgroep Management Watercrises en Overstromingen, SMWO). The SMWO governance structure falls under the Steering Group National Security in which Dutch Safety Regions, the Ministry of Security and Justice, the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment and the Dutch Water Authorities, and the Ministry of Defence take part. This structure provides a good practice example of how information sharing and appropriate actions on climate change and disaster risk prevention can be coordinated across all key agencies.
In Portugal, the national authority for civil protection (ANPC) is liaising with the work of the national platform for disaster risk reduction linked to climate adaptation and is coordinating one of the sectoral working groups that integrate with the NAS. In this way, close cooperation and articulation between disaster risk management and climate adaptation is assured. The NAS also includes a sector working group on safety of people and assets, which contributed to the ANPC’s 2014 National Risk Assessment 324 . This assessment explicitly includes climate change impacts and how they may accentuate or attenuate natural, technological or hybrid risks. The NAS also acts to support disaster risk reduction at sector level, promotes good practices (e.g. early warning systems) and produces manuals on best practices for risk management and prevention.
Similar coordinated approaches are also established in a small number of other Member States, including the Czech Republic and the UK.
The EEA report on Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe 325 shows that there are opportunities to further enhance coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction as both policies use the concept of resilience and this provides common ground to build on more coherent policies and actions. Example include the co-design and codevelopment of climate services, an area where Copernicus (‘Europe’s eyes on Earth 326 ’) can contribute. In addition, there are opportunities to improve and harmonise the sharing of vast amount of complementary knowledge available at websites, portals and platforms. Incomplete records of past disasters highlight the need for an improved monitoring and risk assessment as comprehensive, harmonised and interoperable disaster loss databases are needed to improve existing damage and risk models. Finally, national level coordination of
Regions Act. Available from: https://english.nctv.nl/binaries/j-18732-web-eng-wetveiligheidsregios_tcm32-84093.pdf
324 ANPC (2014). Avaliacao Nacional de Risco Available from: http://www.prociv.pt/bk/RISCOSPREV/AVALIACAONACIONALRISCO/Documents/2016_Avaliac ao_Nacional_Riscos.pdf
325 EEA, 2017, Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe: enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices, European Environment Agency, EEA Report 15/2017, ISSN 1977-8449 (https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-change-adaptation-and-disaster)
326 http://www.copernicus.eu/
indicators needs improvement to measure progress and better understand and value the co-benefits of nature-based solutions in adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
A total of 15 Member States 327 have land use, spatial, urban and maritime planning
policies that explicitly address climate impacts, and require or encourage adaptation.
Only six Member States (BE, DE, FI, SE, SK, UK) have national policy instruments that promote adaptation at sectoral level, in line with national priorities and in areas where adaptation is mainstreamed in EU policies. However, all but two of the other countries are promoting adaptation in certain sectors, with significant gaps in others (e.g. construction, energy, fisheries, health and industry) (see Figure IX-8). In addition to those sectors specified in the figure, small numbers of Member States are mainstreaming adaptation in a wide range of “Other” individual sectors include insurance or alternative policy instruments providing incentives for investments in risk prevention (DE and DK only).
Figure IX-8. Sectors in which national policy instruments promote adaptation
-
9.Climate change adaptation policies and measures are implemented
At least 22 Member States are implementing their NAS and/or NAP, albeit with gaps in key sectors or in some actions identified as priorities. In one Member State (FI), it is clear that the NAP and associated priorities are being implemented in a coordinated way.
Of those Member States that have progressed implementation, only 14 328 have
cooperation mechanisms in place to foster and support adaptation at a local and subnational scale.
327 BG, CZ, DE, DK, FI, FR, HU, IE, LT, LU, LV, PT, SE, SI, UK
328 AT, DE, DK, ES, FI, HU, IE, LT, NL, PL, PT, SE, SK, UK
Half of the Member States have made little or no progress, as yet, in making procedures or guidelines available to assess the potential impact of climate change on major projects or programmes, and facilitate the choice of alternative options (e.g. green infrastructure). Thirteen Member States are involving stakeholders in the implementation of adaptation policies and measures.
Step E: Monitoring and evaluation
-
10.Systems are in place to monitor and report on climate change adaptation, including adaptation-related expenditures, via relevant indicators
A total of 16 Member States are undertaking some monitoring and reporting of adaptation activities. The extent differs to which these Member States are monitoring and reporting on: NAS and/or NAP implementation; integration of climate adaptation in sectoral policies; or regional, sub-national and local actions (see Figure IX-9).
Figure IX-9. The focus of adaptation monitoring and reporting being undertaken by Member States
-
11.An evaluation framework is in place to assess whether adaptation policy objectives are met and a periodic review of the adaptation strategy is planned
While 24 Member States have planned a periodic review of their NAS and/or NAP, stakeholders are actively involved in the assessment, evaluation and review of national adaptation policy in only 13 Member States. Nevertheless, the EEA reports that most countries have focused primarily on monitoring and reporting while the evaluation of adaptation policies has started recently in a handful of countries 329 .
An overview of monitoring and evaluation frameworks and a selection of good practices is provided in Box 7.
Box 7. Monitoring and evaluation frameworks
Monitoring and reporting of implementation has taken place at sectoral and subnational levels in seven Member States (AT, DE, ES, FI, LT, SK and UK). In most countries, reporting of sectoral and sub-national level implementation is covered within the central report on the implementation of the NAS/NAP with dedicated chapters on the relevant actions. On the other hand, there are three Member States (HR, NL and SI) where, even though central monitoring and reporting on the implementation of the NAS is not in place, separate sectoral progress reports are published. For instance, in the Netherlands, a progress report on the Delta Programme, covering adaptation actions related to flooding and the water sector, is published annually.
The frequency of central reporting varies; for instance, in Austria a progress report is published every five years, in Spain every three years, while in Lithuania an implementation report on the NAP is published annually by the responsible ministry. The type of monitoring information can be qualitative and quantitative. For instance, in Austria monitoring is based on a stakeholder survey (‘selfassessment approach’; based on the NAP and sent to the key actors mentioned therein) and a criteria-approach (‘indicator-based approach’ with qualitative and quantitative data collections).
In contrast to the dissemination of monitoring results, a periodic review of the NAS/NAP is in place or planned in 24 out of the 28 Member States and is either embedded in the national climate change legislation or the NAS/NAP itself.
Fundamental conceptual and methodological challenges remain for monitoring, reporting and evaluation activities owing to a still limited experience with the use of adaptation indicators. A forthcomingworking paper of the EEA, supported by the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation, analysed available national adaptation indicator sets. While several countries are working on adaptation indicators, and new information is expected
329 EEA, 2015, Overview of climate change adaptation platforms in Europe, European Environment Agency, EEA Technical Report 5/2015, ISSN 1725-2237 (https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/overview-of-climate-change-adaptation)
to be available in the near future, there are currently only a few European countries with an operational set of indicators in place (AT, FI, DE, NL, UK). The countries use indicator sets instead of single indicators and combine quantitative information with descriptive expert knowledge. There is also a clear link between the sectors covered in the NAS/NAP and in the adaptation indicator sets. Several data underpinning the indicators are either recorded continuously (e.g. water parameters) or collected from different entities (for example in the case of subnational measures), making it necessary to report them in a structured format for evaluation. While not always one-to-one, the adaptation indicator sets available contain a large amount of information that is suitable for the reporting under the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators globally and at the EU-level (for SDG13 on Climate Action and beyond). Monitoring, reporting and evaluation experiences in for example the thematic areas of biodiversity, adaptation and international development, and sustainability have transferable lessons learned that may improve climate change adaptation evaluation practices.
Regarding the active involvement of stakeholders in the monitoring and evaluation process, 13 Member States have put in place stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which include involvement within central and sectoral committees as well as holding stakeholder workshops or discussions. For instance, in Finland, a specific group was established to monitor NAP implementation and the group involves the central coordinating ministry, other relevant ministries, research institutes, and local, regional and other relevant actors and associations.
-
4.Conclusions
Overall, Member States have made good progress in developing a NAS and/or NAP, or are in the process of finalising them (three Member States are in the final stages of adopting a NAS). This progress suggests that there is a now a significantly higher baseline of preparedness and adaptation policy-making than in 2013, when the EU Adaptation Strategy was launched. It also suggests that the Strategy catalysed action in Member States and particularly in those that were in earlier stages of developing an adaptation policy. The EU’s facilitative role through providing guidance, funding research and adaptation action under the Strategy can be traced throughout the five steps of the adaptation policy cycle.
The aggregated scoreboard for the 28 Member States is provided in Figure IX-10 (below). It indicates a difference in progress by Member States across the five steps of the adaptation policy cycle. While most Member States have made good progress with the first three steps (A. Preparing the ground for adaptation; B. Assessing risk and vulnerabilities; and C. Identifying adaptation options), many have yet to implement adaptation actions and undertake monitoring and reporting. Larger Member States and those that adopted a NAS earlier than others (see Table IX-1 above) have made more progress. Progress in relation to some indicators is also influenced by administrative culture and geography. For instance, not all Member States wish to coordinate sectoral adaptation actions under a single strategy and the need for detailed transboundary arrangements is less relevant for more isolated Member States.
Conclusions on each step of the adaptation policy cycle are provided below:
Step A: Preparing the ground for adaptation
All MS have a basic governance structure for adaptation policy-making. Although some degree of vertical coordination is in place in almost all Member States to enable subnational stakeholders to influence policy development and implementation, this does not seem to have a sectoral focus. Nevertheless, most country fiches indicate that a wide range of stakeholders have been consulted in the preparation of adaptation policies.
While the extent of transboundary cooperation, and whether it is driven by the NAS/NAP, varies between Member States, almost all are planning to address common challenges with relevant countries; invariably with regard to water. It is clear that international initiatives (e.g. the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, and the Alpine Convention), EU initiatives (e.g. the macro-regional strategies) and EU-funded projects are important in helping to prepare the ground for cooperation.
Step B: Assessing risks and vulnerabilities
Climate change scenarios and projections are widely available at national level. They are being used in most Member States to undertake sound, centrally-coordinated assessments of climate vulnerabilities, risks, and future economic, social and environmental impacts, with other Member States making progress in this respect.
While most Member States have included actions related to knowledge in their NAS and have identified adaptation knowledge gaps, there seems to be limited activity to address these gaps in almost half of the Member States.
Adaptation-related data (e.g. climate projections, vulnerability and risk assessments, adaptation tools) are available to at least some stakeholders in almost all Member States, and disseminated by a majority of them via a national web-based platform. However, coordination of associated capacity-building activities is less advanced and established in fewer than half of Member States.
Step C: Identifying adaptation options
Most Member States have used detailed vulnerability and/or risk assessments in combination with robust methods (e.g. multicriteria analyses and/or stakeholder consultations) to prioritise sectoral adaptation options. However, notably, less than half of Member States have mechanisms in place to coordinate disaster risk management and climate adaptation.
EU funds play an important role in enabling funding to be made available nationally for implementation of adaptation actions in at least a few sectors in almost all Member States. Nevertheless, there is a lack of reliable funding, with only half of Member States having budgets attached to their NAS or NAP.
Step D: Implementing adaptation action
Although most Member States have begun implementing their NAS and/or NAP, around half or more of Member States are yet to ensure that:
• Climate adaptation is considered in Strategic Environmental Assessments • Synergies with disaster risk reduction are progressed • Land use, spatial, urban and maritime planning policies encourage adaptation • Adaptation is integrated into insurance policies • Cooperation mechanisms are established to foster local and subnational action • There is appropriate consideration of potential climate impacts on major projects
or programmes and of alternative options, including green infrastructure
• Stakeholders are involved in implementing adaptation policies.
Step E: Monitoring and evaluation
While most Member States have planned a periodic review of their NAS and/or NAP, their monitoring and reporting is not yet robust and there is a need to develop stakeholder involvement (including of subnational levels) in their assessment, evaluation and review.
Figure IX-10. Aggregated scoreboard for the 28 EU Member States 330
330 For a more detailed explanation of what each indicator means and how its value is determined, please refer to the scoreboard methodology in Annex X.
-
5.Country codes of EU Member States
Country codes are used in Section 3 (Results and analysis) of this Annex in accordance with the rules of the EU Interinstitutional Style Guide 331 . Hence, the two-letter ISO code (ISO 3166 alpha-2) is used except for Greece and the United Kingdom, for which the abbreviations EL and UK have to be used:
AT Austria BE Belgium BG Bulgaria CY Cyprus CZ Czech Republic DE Germany DK Denmark EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FI Finland FR France HR Croatia HU Hungary IE Ireland IT Italy LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg LV Latvia MT Malta NL Netherland PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania SE Sweden SI Slovenia SK Slovakia UK United Kingdom
331 See at: http://publications.europa.eu/code/en/en-000100.htm
Annex X EU adaptation preparedness scoreboard indicator list and methodology
Policy framework
A Adaptation strategies A1 A NAS has been adopted
A2 Number and scope (% of population or territory covered) of adaptation strategies adopted at relevant subnational levels, in line with national multilevel governance arrangements
B Adaptation action plans B1 A national adaptation action plan has been adopted
B2 Number and scope of adaptation action plans adopted at local or relevant subnational levels
B3 Adaptation action plans adopted at sectoral level, or embedded in sectoral strategies
Scoreboard
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
Step 1: 1. A country-wide 1a A central administration - Country Fiches to provide details on the coordinating administration and
Preparing the governance system is body officially in charge of its role
ground for in place for adaptation adaptation policy making
policy making and
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies,
policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus
process
adaptation vertical and horizontal 1b Horizontal (i.e. sectoral) YES = evidence that systematic coordination is in place (depending on coordination coordination mechanisms the implementation phase)
arrangements are in exist within the
place between governance system, with - Country Fiches to present clearly what is the case (i.e. coordination governmental bodies division of responsibilities only during drafting the NAS or continued during the implementation
phase)
IN PROGRESS: Some coordination activity between bodies responsible for relevant sectors, but with no clear division of responsibilities, or
incomplete sectoral coverage.
1c Vertical (i.e. across levels YES = Idem 1b of administration)
coordination mechanisms - Additionally, Country Fiches to also present details if – cooperation only exist within the in certain sectors (e.g. water); specific delegation mechanisms are in
governance system, place, e.g. for devolving power & responsibilities to regions. enabling lower levels of
administration to influence IN PROGRESS: Some coordination mechanisms between relevant levels policy making. of administration, but with incomplete coverage or incomplete
implementation.
-
2.Stakeholders (e.g. 2a A dedicated process is in - Country Fiches to provide details on the processes used (e.g. public
interest groups, place to facilitate consultations, involvement in working groups etc.)
scientists and general stakeholders' involvement
public) are involved in in the preparation of - Country Fiches to indicate what categories of stakeholders have been
the preparation of adaptation policies consulted (e.g. industry representatives, organised civil society, etc.)
adaptation policies If at the time of preparation of the Country Fiches, the policy cycle is in a stage where stakeholder involvement is not relevant (e.g. just after the adoption of a strategy or a plan), the Country Fiches should seek evidence from the last stakeholder involvement period.
2b Transboundary cooperation YES = stable cooperation mechanisms are in place (ideally described in is planned to address or driven by the NAS)
common challenges with - Country Fiches to present details on the specific cooperation
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
relevant countries mechanisms (do not have to be formal governmental processes, e.g. macro-regional strategies count as well)
-
-Country Fiches to present details re. the specific sectors / fields of
cooperation (e.g. flood risk management)
-
-Country Fiches to present details on identified transboundary projects and/or other common initiatives (although if this is the only cooperation
identified would normally not qualify for a positive assessment).
Step 2: 3. Systems are in 3a Observation systems are in YES = observation systems are in place, records on extreme events are Assessing place to monitor and place to monitor climate being kept, and these records include figures on impacts (e.g. casualties, risks and assess current and change, extreme climate damages, financial losses etc.) vulnerabilities projected climate events and their impacts
to climate change, impacts and - Country Fiches to present details on what observations systems are in change vulnerability place for monitoring climate events, as well as their impacts.
-
-Country Fiches to present details on what kind of records regarding
climate impacts are being identified.
-
-Country Fiches to try identifying what and how the climate-related impacts are captured (e.g. loss & damage figures, surface/areas affected,
no. of people affected etc.).
IN PROGRESS: observation systems are in place only in some sectors.
3b Scenarios and projections YES = projections are available, and based on most recent science; and are used to assess the are being used for assessing impacts (even if only preliminary economic, social and vulnerability screenings are being carried out)
environmental impacts of climate change, taking into Note: Indicators 3b and 3c should be looked at together. 3b tends to account geographical have a geographical scope, while 3c has a sectoral one.
specificities and are based
on latest best available Initial analysis will present a simple schema of the coverage of scenarios science (e.g. in response and projections. In due course, further detailed information could be to revised IPCC added by desk officers or Member States on (i) the projections available
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
assessments) in the Member States: source (domestic research or international sources) and how are they maintained, singular or ensembles, RCM or downscaled GCM, available resolutions; (ii) whether an overall/aggregated risk & vulnerability assessment was carried out across several sectors or one of a national coverage was done; (iii) optionally, details on any existing sub-national/regional assessments are useful for complementing the sectoral perspective
IN PROGRESS: not country specific enough, old scenarios, not based on
recent science
3c Sound climate YES = comprehensive risk & vulnerability assessments are carried out in risks/vulnerability (a critical mass of the) priority sectors identified;
assessments for priority
vulnerable sectors are - Country Fiches to present details on what sectors were analysed, the undertaken to support level of detail in the analyses, and information on the studies supporting
adaptation decision these assessments
making. The selection of
vulnerable sectors may be - Country Fiches to seek details whether the analyses were coordinated based on a lighter preat a central level, were sector-driven carried out independently, or were
screening vulnerability separate research projects carried out independently
assessment.
IN PROGRESS: some evidence of good quality risk and vulnerability
assessments in some sectors; but sectoral coverage is partial
3d Climate risks/vulnerability YES = transboundary risks are taken into account in a coordinated assessments take manner, ideally enshrined in NAS
transboundary risks into
account, when relevant - Country Fiches to provide details on how and where transboundary
risks were considered (i.e. for which sectors), and if this coordinated by the NAS or is sector-driven (e.g. in water management and flood risk), or
project-driven
IN PROGRESS: Transboundary risks are taken into account by some
sectors, but gaps exist in relevant sectors.
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
-
4.Knowledge gaps on 4a Work is being carried out YES: gaps are identified and work is ongoing to address them (not
climate change and to identify, prioritise and checking if all relevant sectors are addressed)
climate change address the knowledge
adaptation are tackled gaps - Country Fiches to provide details on the processes employed for
periodically tackling the knowledge gaps and mention if this is driven by
NAS or other arrangements are in place;
-
-Country Fiches to provide details on any preliminary identification of
knowledge gaps being carried out (e.g. identified in NAS).
-
-Country Fiches to provide details on the publicly-funded research programmes or mechanisms identified (e.g. proper prioritisation, specific
research centres created);
-
-Country Fiches to provide details on any sector-driven (e.g. water management, agriculture etc.) or project-driven (EU funds available)
research for identifying knowledge gaps
IN PROGRESS: gaps are only identified, no work to address them
-
5.Knowledge transfer 5a Adaptation relevant data YES = highly visible sources of information on adaptation are available processes are in place and information is and contain: general climate data (e.g. climate projections), vulnerability to build adaptive available to all and risk assessments, adaptation tools and examples, information on
capacity across stakeholders, including adaptation policy and related institutional and legal frameworks etc. sectors policy makers (e.g. A centralised (Climate-ADAPT type) platform is desirable, but a limited through a dedicated set of de-centralised sources complementing each other could also satisfy website or other the need (provided that they are easily identifiable and well established comparable means). in their specific sectors).
-
-Country Fiches to provide details and links on the following categories: - adaptation general info - specific platforms or adaptation sections in the wider climate change platforms; - NAS/policy oriented adaptation pages; and - climate projection repositories (e.g. from the met offices or research
-
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
projects).
- additionally, specific adaptation projects' web sites could be identified.
-
-Country Fiches to provide details on the identified science-policy
interfaces falling into one of the categories:
-
-stable processes and/or organisations (e.g. research and/or expertise
centre acting as a focal point, partnership structure between
organisations, programme run by the central administration consisting of
systematic meetings, workshops etc.). To mention if specific action in
NAS/NAP supports this;
-
-ad-hoc process (e.g. for drafting the NAS)
IN PROGRESS: adaptation relevant data available to some stakeholders,
but with significant groups not targeted.
5b Capacity building activities YES = systematic actions on capacity building, carried out in a take place; education and coordinated way, usually driven by the NAS or NAP.
training materials on
climate change adaptation - Country Fiches to provide details on the identified mechanisms falling
concepts and practices are into one of the categories:
available and disseminated - systematic and coordinated activities, usually driven by the NAS or
NAP (e.g. an established support service offering assistance to
authorities, training programmes etc.). To mention if specific action in
NAS/NAP supports this;
-
-ad-hoc process carried out by various organisations, but not
coordinated by a specific programme or action in the NAS.
-
-Country Fiches should try to identify capacity building actions in: public administration, academia, business sector, and awareness-raising actions
for the wider public.
IN PROGRESS: systematic actions on capacity building but not in a
coordinated manner.
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
Step 3: 6. For priority sectors, 6a Adaptation options address YES = detailed/elaborated risk assessments used to identify adaptation a range of adaptation sectoral risks identified in options for (a majority of) the priority sectors.
Identifying options is considered, 3c, the geographical adaptation consistent with the specificities identified in 3b Note: The reply should be correlated with the ones for the indicators 3b options results of sectoral risk and follow best practices and 3c.
assessments and as defined in similar
taking into account contexts - Country Fiches to identify whether all or only some of the priority good practices and sectors have risk assessments and adaptation options identified. If latter,
measures to mention which sectors have detailed risk assessments;
-
-Country Fiches to mention whether indicative adaptation actions are identified based only on lighter processes (e.g. stakeholder consultations,
expert judgement);
-
-Country Fiches could analyse the 'horizontal' actions and seek
information on how they were derived (e.g. based on good practices).
6b YES = a prioritisation mechanism is clearly indicated and/or prioritisation tools/guidance/criteria are made available for being used during project
The selection of priority selection. adaptation options is based on robust methods (e.g. - Country Fiches to indicate how selection and prioritisation of adaptation multi-criteria analyses, options was made: stakeholders' consultation,
etc.) and consistent with - using processes (e.g. expert judgement, consultations among
existing decision-making organisations or with stakeholders), and/or
frameworks - using tools and methodologies (MCA, CBA, guidelines for
prioritisation);
-
-
-Country Fiches to specify whether the prioritisation was made at the sectoral level (i.e. choosing priority actions per sector), or across sectors
(i.e. choosing priority sectors for kick-starting actions), or both;
-
-Country Fiches to indicate whether specific prioritisation tools have been published (e.g. guidelines for selection, MCA etc. which would be
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
used for all measures);
-
-Country Fiches to identify further plans for carrying out specific prioritisation (e.g. to prioritise in the context of specific actions, sectors,
geographical areas; to develop new tools (CBA, MCA) etc.
6c Mechanisms are in place to YES = (at least) bi-lateral mainstreaming (i.e. DRR in NAS and climate coordinate disaster risk change in DRR). Institutional arrangements supervising the exchange management and climate would be a plus, since this indicator focuses mainly on 'mechanisms' and change adaptation and to needs to differentiate from the indicator 8b.
ensure coherence between the two policies. - Country Fiches to bring details on:
- how DRR planning is taking into account climate change impacts and
projections;
- how NAS/NAP includes DRR measures;
- any institutional frameworks and/or procedures entailed for coordination (e.g. special working groups, climate change specialists involved in DRR policy-making, or DRR practitioners involved in
adaptation planning).
IN PROGRESS: at least one of the three is present but not all
-
7.Dedicated and 7a Funding is available to YES = actions in NAS or the relevant priority sectors receive consistent adequate funding increase climate resilience funding for implementation. Reliable multi-annual funding commitments resources have been in vulnerable sectors and (e.g. through ESIF) for some sectors could lead to a positive assessment, identified and made for cross-cutting while a mere identification in NAS of indicative funding sources without
available to implement adaptation action clear evidence of funds disbursed should not. adaptation action Country Fiches to provide details on which of the 2 cases above would apply – budgets attached to NAS/NAP or separate funding for priority sectors. If the latter, it should try to identify what are the sectors and where the funding comes from (e.g. national/regional, via line ministries, ESIF etc.). For the funding to be taken into account in the CF, adaptation
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
does not have to be the main objective of the intervention, but it should
feature among the stated objectives.
Country Fiches to identify whether the NAS provides for funding crosscutting adaptation action also (e.g. national scenarios and climate services, capacity building, website)
IN PROGRESS: if adaptation is only financed in a few sectors or there is
no funding for cross-cutting adaptation action
Step 4: 8. Climate change Consideration of climate - Country Fiches to provide details regarding both EIA and SEA national adaptation is change adaptation has legislation
Implementing mainstreamed into 8a been included in the adaptation priority and key national frameworks for action national planning and EIAs
sectoral policymaking 8b Prevention/preparedness YES = projected future climate extremes are factored in the DRM plans strategies in place under and associated risk analyses, while historical climate extremes should national disaster risk normally be covered by all risk analyses and DRM action plans. management plans take
into account climate Note: Attention to be granted to correlating this answer with the one
change impacts and given for 6c.
projections
-
-Country Fiches to analyse DRM plans and the associated risk analyses.
Key land use, spatial YES = clear evidence that land use and spatial/urban policies at Member planning, urban planning State level explicitly address climate impacts, and require or encourage
8c and maritime spatial/ adaptation; and evidence that the policies are followed in practice across
urban planning policies the majority of the Member State. take into account the
impacts of climate change - Country Fiches should provide details regarding the type of
mainstreaming:
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
- spatial planning, urban planning, maritime spatial planning;
- geographical scope – national, regional or local.
8d YES = evidence of mainstreaming in sectoral policies is identified. The mere mentioning of a sector in the NAS is not enough, unless is being
National policy instruments backed by actual policy instruments identified in that sector that include
promote adaptation at adaptation.
sectoral level, in line with national priorities and in - Provide details regarding: areas where adaptation is mainstreamed in EU - what sectors are currently including adaptation considerations; policies
- what policy instruments are promoting adaptation in each sector;
- was the NAS the driver for mainstreaming in these sectors or something else triggered an autonomous adaptation (e.g. EU acquis or
policy)?
IN PROGRESS: individual sectoral policies promote adaptation, but
coverage is patchy, with significant gaps
8e Adaptation is YES = evidence of insurance (or guarantee) schemes that are mainstreamed in insurance incentivising investments in enhanced resilience and risk prevention is or alternative policy identified in both the national framework (NAS/NAP) and as being active instruments, where in the field.
relevant, to provide incentives for investments Insurance schemes available for current extremes are available in many in risk prevention places, but by themselves would not qualify for a positive assessment.
Furthermore, schemes for ensuring the affordability of insurance (for e.g.
flood risks) do not incentivise adaptation per se.
-
-Country Fiches to mention what specific objectives or actions on Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies,
policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and making Notes for better focus process
insurance are contained in the NAS.
-
-Country Fiches to provide details on how the insurance schemes are
incentivising adaptation.
9a Adaptation policies and YES = only if coordinated implementation of NAS/NAP is underway, and measures are clear evidence of adaptation priorities identified being put into effect.
implemented, e.g. as
defined in action plans or Note: actions such as effective mainstreaming in sectors (confirmed by sectoral policy documents the indicator 8d) and further/detailed vulnerability and risk assessments should be seen as concrete implementation, provided they are required
as such by the NAS/NAP
-
-Country Fiches should mention if national / sectoral / regional action plans are drafted, or the NAS is the only programmatic document
governing adaptation
-
-Country Fiches should provide a brief account on what actions are being 9. Climate change implemented (e.g. mostly horizontal, sectoral – if yes, in which sectors, adaptation policies etc.) and measures are implemented - Country Fiches should mention in what stage is the implementation
(recently started, several years past etc.), if progress reports have been
issued.
-
-Country Fiches could mention notable examples of autonomous
adaptation action being implemented
IN PROGRESS: evidence that the NAS/NAP is being implemented, but
with gaps in key sectors or in some actions identified as priorities.
9b Cooperation mechanisms YES = only if cooperation (with regions and cities) is actually active in place to foster and during the implementation. From that point of view this indicator should support adaptation at be correlated with 9a which shows that implementation has started. If relevant scales (e.g. local, the cooperation is made possible by frameworks in place (this should be correlated with the indicator 1c on vertical integration), but no
-
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
subnational) implementation is underway the assessment should be negative. However, in this latter case a separate mention should be made in the CF. The same, if the NAS/NAP are calling for such a vertical cooperation.
Note: This indicator should be seen as focused on the adaptation actions carried out at regional and local levels, supported by formalised collaborative frameworks. It differs from indicator 1c which shows rather how regional and local levels are feeding back into the national actions
(NAS, NAP).
9c Procedures or guidelines YES = only if guidelines and procedures refer specifically to projects and are available to assess the programmes. Spatial development could be assimilated, as it forms the potential impact of climate basis of development programmes.
change on major projects or programmes, and - Country Fiches should specify who is promoting the guidelines (i.e. facilitate the choice of government bodies, other organisations, or they are results of projects) alternative options, e.g. and if they are actually used in practice (as opposed to simply being green infrastructure made available).
-
-Country Fiches should note if NAS/NAP include specific actions for
publishing and applying such guidelines or procedures.
9d There are processes for YES = if the involvement of stakeholders is already happening. The stakeholders' involvement stakeholders are seen here as 'non-public administration' bodies.
in the implementation of adaptation policies and Note: It is important to notice that this indicator refers to stakeholders measures. actually implementing adaptation actions, not only participating in
monitoring and evaluation (since the indicator 11b is specifically reserved
for that)
-
-Country Fiches should provide details on what categories of stakeholders are involved (e.g. academia, research, business sector, NGOs etc.) and how are they involved (e.g. implementation of specific
actions, steering & consultations, selection of projects etc.).
-
-Country Fiches should note if NAS/NAP provide specific Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies,
policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and making Notes for better focus process
mechanisms/forums for involving the stakeholders.
-
Step 5: 10. Systems are in 10a Monitoring and reporting: YES = if reports on the implementation of NAS/NAP are being published. place to monitor and Information on NAS/NAP
Monitoring report on climate implementation is Note: This indicator should be seen as referring to national centralised and change adaptation, monitored and the results reporting on the progress of adaptation action (i.e. implementation of evaluation including adaptationof the monitoring are NAS/NAP).
related expenditures, collected and
via relevant indicators disseminated. - Country Fiches should provide details on the national reports:
- year(s) of publication and periodicity, latest report number;
- body that published the report;
- type of reporting – quantitative (based on indicators), qualitative on
the progress, or both;
- availability of financial information on allocated budgets and the costs
of actions;
- sources of information – e.g. reports from sectors/stakeholders, own
monitoring carried out by the central adaptation body etc.
10b Monitoring and reporting: YES = if reports on adaptation in certain sectors are being published, The integration of climate whether it is a centralised single report or different reports for each change adaptation in sector. In the latter case, the reports should cover enough sectors, as sectoral policies is counted against the priority sectors identified in the NAS.
monitored and the results
of the monitoring are Availability/development of indicators is a detail that should be added,
disseminated. but the lack of it should not result in a negative assessment.
Note: This indicator should be seen as having a sectoral focus, looking at
monitoring and reporting on progress.
-
-Country Fiches should provide details on:
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
- how sectoral mainstreaming is monitored and reported: coordinated
centrally or by the sectors themselves;
- what types of reports are being published: central report with details
on sectors, or separate sectoral reports;
- type of sectoral reports (if is the case) – are they only about adaptation, or adaptation is just a topic among others addressed in that report? (If only centralised reports are published, those are presumably
pure adaptation ones).
10c Monitoring and reporting: Note: This indicator should be seen as having a regional/local focus, Information on regional, looking at specific reporting carried out by sub-national administrations. sub-national or local action It should be looked at in correlation with indicator 1c on vertical is monitored and the coordination.
results of the monitoring
are collected and - Country Fiches should present if:
disseminated - the sub-regional level is reporting to the national one on their progress on adaptation; or
- the sub-regional level issue their own progress reports independently,
addressed to the wider public; or
- no formal reporting is carried out, but feedback from sub-national to national level is done via other mechanisms (e.g. sub-national presence in national coordination committees for adaptation). These mechanisms should lead to having national reports that include information on
adaptation action carried out at sub-national levels.
-
11.An evaluation 11a YES = if clear mechanisms are in place for reviewing at least one of the framework is in place NAP or NAS. Full reviews NAS and NAP constitute even stronger
to assess whether A periodic review of the mechanisms. adaptation policy NAS and action plans is objectives are met planned - This is an important indicator to understand a central part of the and a periodic review adaptation governance in the Member States. As such, the Country
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
of the adaptation Fiches should aim to explain the following: strategy is planned - how is the evaluation planned and/or carried out – on NAP, on NAS, or both;
- what is the frequency of the evaluations and when is the next one
planned;
- how is the revision planned and/or carried out – on NAP, on NAS, or
both;
- what is the frequency of the revisions and when is the next one
planned;
- how is the review timeline determined – i.e. provisions in the legislation on adaptation, in the NAS or NAP themselves, or ad-hoc
revisions based on the findings of (planned) evaluations.
11b Stakeholders are involved YES = if structured involvement is identified in any of the 2 processes in the assessment, (monitoring and review). 'Involvement' should be understood as evaluation and review of stakeholders actively participating in monitoring and/or review, as national adaptation policy opposed to them only providing information (via e.g. public consultations or reporting).
Note: In case reporting is identified, this should be linked to indicator 9d,
as It relates to implementation.
-
-Proposal: the term 'assessment' should be replaced by 'monitoring'. 'Evaluation' should be deleted, as is seen as an integral part of the
'review'.
-
-Country Fiches should provide details on:
-
- how stakeholders are involved (e.g. describe what coordination/review committees are they part of). Identify whether these are central committees overseeing national adaptation action, or sectoral
Adaptation Main area of N° Key domain of Criteria for positive and "In progress" replies, policy performance relevance Categories of information sought, and
making Notes for better focus process
committees for priority sectors of action;
- which processes are they involved in – monitoring, evaluation, revision
of NAS/NAP.
Annex XI List of EU policy initiatives where adaptation is mainstreamed
Table XI-1. Initiatives where climate adaptation is mainstreamed into EU policy (in force), including updates
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y AGRI Agriculture Proposal for a Regulation Regulation (EU) No Greening of the first pillar has introduced three requirements establishing rules for direct payments 1307/2013 of the European for farms: crop diversification; maintaining existing to farmers under support schemes Parliament and of the permanent grassland; and having ecological focus area on within the framework of the Council of 17 December the agricultural area (Article 43). These requirements have Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2013 establishing rules for adaptation co-benefits despite not being the primary objective
COM(2011) 625 i 332 direct payments to farmers of the measures.
under support schemes within the framework of the The greening requirements are in addition to cross-compliance Common Agricultural requirements, which include minimum good agricultural and
Policy 333 and repealing environmental conditions (GAEC) on soil, biodiversity and Council Regulation (EC) No water. 637/2008 334 and Council
Regulation (EC) No
73/2009 335
Y AGRI Agriculture Financing, management and Regulation (EU) No Farm advisory system covers the requirements to be respected monitoring of the common 1306/2013 of the European
332
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council, COM(2011) 0625 final i
333
Regulation (EU) No 1307/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013
334
Council Regulation (EC) No 637/2008 i of 23 June 2008 amending Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003 i
335
Council Regulation (EC) No 73/2009 i of 19 January 2009 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
agricultural policy COM(2011) Parliament and of the in relation to agricultural practices beneficial for the climate.
628 336 Council of 17 December
2013 of the financing, The cross-compliance system incorporates in the CAP basic management and monitoring standards concerning the environment, climate change, good of the common agricultural agricultural and environmental condition of land, public health,
policy 337 and repealing plant health and animal welfare.
Council Regulations (EEC)
No 352/78 338 , (EC) No 165/94 339 , (EC) No 2799/98 340 , (EC) No 814/2000 341 , (EC) No 1290/2005 342 and (EC) No 485/2008 343
Y AGRI Agriculture and Proposal for a Regulation of the Regulation was adopted and The EAFRD, in line with climate mainstreaming targets, forestry European Parliament and of the is currently in force: requires that at least 30% of EAFRD funding goes to measures Council on support for rural Regulation (EU) No relevant for the environment and climate change.
development by the European 1305/2013 345 of the Agricultural Fund for Rural European Parliament and of The Rural Development policy offers support to EU Members
336
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the financing, management and monitoring of the common agricultural policy, COM(2011) 628 i
337
Regulation (EU) No 1306/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013
338
Council Regulation (EEC) No 352/78 i of 20 February 1978
339
Council Regulation (EC) No 165/94 i of 24 January 1994
340
Council Regulation (EC) No 2799/98 i of 15 December 1998
341
Council Regulation (EC) No 814/2000 i of 17 April 2000
342
Council Regulation (EC) No 1290/2005 i of 21 June 2005
343
Council Regulation (EC) No 485/2008 i of 26 May 2008 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Development (EAFRD) COM(2011) the Council of 17 December States for implementing agricultural and forest adaptation
627 344 2013 on support for rural policies and priorities, offering a wide ranging set of measures
development by the EAFRD that can be used and combined by Member States to address and repealing Council the regional and local specific impacts and vulnerabilities. Regulation (EC) No
1698/2005 346 The fifth Union priority for rural development is “promoting
resource efficiency and supporting the shift towards a low carbon and climate resilient economy in agriculture, food and forestry sectors”, with a focus, among the others, on adaptation related areas such as efficiency in water use, carbon
conservation and sequestration..
The fourth Union priority on “Restoring, Preserving and enhancing ecosystems”, focus, among the others, on the water management and prevention of soil erosion and soil
management.
The regulation also indicates that all priorities “shall contribute to the cross-cutting objectives of innovation, environment and
climate change mitigation and adaptation.” (Article 5)
Climate change mitigation and adaptation and biodiversity also
appear as a thematic sub-programme. (Article 7)
Several measures can be used for adaptation purposes, for example: the farm advisory system, which helps stakeholders
345
Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013
344
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), COM (2011) 0627 final i.
346
Council Regulation (EC) No 1698/2005 i of 20 September 2005 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
to improve “the economic and environmental performance as well as the climate friendliness and resilience of their holding,
enterprise and/or investment” (Article 15).
The agri-environment-climate measures encourage farmers to apply agricultural practices that contribute to climate change
mitigation and adaptation. (Article 28)
Others measure such as Investments in physical assets (Article 17), Organic farming (article 29), Areas facing natural or other
specific constraints (article 31).
Measures relevant for forest adaptation, including inter alia agro-forestry, afforestation, investments improving the resilience and environmental value of forest ecosystems,
prevention of forest fires and natural disasters, or the forestenvironmental and climate services and forest conservation that includes the conservation and promotion of forest genetic resources.
Operational Groups (Art. 36, Cooperation) linked to the European Innovation Partnership for Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability, specifically considers the promotion of a climate friendly and resilient agriculture and improving processes to preserve the environment, adapt to climate change and mitigate it. It is financing several operational groups
relevant for adaptation.
Regulation Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 807/2014 i lays down provisions supplementing Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 i as regards i.a. forests and forest management practices. The regulation stipulates for instance for afforestation and creation of woodland measures that "the
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
selection of species, varieties, ecotypes and provenances of trees shall take account of the need for resilience to climate change and to natural disasters […]". Programming of such measures and definition of eligibility criteria for accessing such support is however undertaken at Member State level.
Y AGRI/ENV/GRO Forest Policy New EU Forest Strategy COM(2013) Communication from the The EU Forest Strategy (2013) supplements the EU Adaptation
W 659 Commission to the European Strategy as far as forests are concerned, integrating climate Parliament, the Council, the action in the wider coherent approach towards sustainable
Complemented by Multi-Annual European Economic and Social
Implementation Plan of the new EU Committee and the Committee
forest management. One of its priority areas is "Forests in a
of the Regions on a new EU changing climate", where the Strategic objective is to enhance Forest Strategy SWD(2015) 164 347 Forest Strategy: for forests and the forests adaptive capacity and resilience, building on the EU
the forest-based sector Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. A Multiannual
COM(2013) 659 i 348 Implementation Plan of the EU Forest Strategy was developed alongside the EU Forest Strategy. The 2015 implementation
plan recommends action by Member States to “demonstrate how they enhance their forests’. The Strategy highlights the need for adaptation in forests: “Forests are vulnerable to climate change. It is therefore important to maintain and enhance their resilience and adaptive capacity, including through fire prevention and other adaptive solutions. The role of forests in climate action primarily appears in achieving mitigation objectives; nevertheless the opportunity for rural development support to adaptation actions is highlighted.
347
Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment, SWD(2015) 164 final
348
Communication from the Commission: A new EU Forest Strategy: for forests and he forest-based sector, COM(2013) 0659 i In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
The Forest Strategy is currently under mid-term review. N COMP State Aid Guidelines on State aid for Adopted and implemented Although adaptation to climate change is not explicitly
environmental protection and energy mentioned as eligible for state aid, the guidelines list aid to
2014-2020 349 water re-use as an authorised measure, which has co-benefits in
terms of adaptation. Aid to hydropower is only authorised if it does not have negative impacts on water systems in the meaning of the Water Framework Directive, whose implementation guidance covers climate adaptation (see related entry below in this table). Environmentally harmful subsidies (which include subsidies that lead to maladaptation, e.g. excessive water extraction) are also ineligible according to the
guidelines.
N DEVCO / ECHO Resilience EU Approach to Resilience – Joint Communication on A The Joint Communication examines different aspects of state Communication, Action Plan Strategic Approach to and societal resilience, including climate and environmental Resilience in the EU's resilience, migration and forced displacement and security. It
External Action 350 proposes four building blocks to incorporate resilience into the
EU's external action:
• Improving analysis of risks, underlying causes and resilience factors (capacities to cope with risks and shocks, to adapt and to transform)
• A more dynamic monitoring by the EU of external pressures to allow early action
• Integrating the resilience approach into EU programming and financing of external assistance
• EU cooperation with multilateral and bilateral
349
Communication from the Commission: Guidelines on State aid for environmental protection and energy 2014-2020 (2014/C 200/01) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52014XC0628(01)
350
Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council: A Strategic Approach to Resilience in the EU's external action, JOIN(2017) 21 final i In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
institutional partners
N ECHO / DEVCO / Development Communication on Lives in Dignity: Follow-up by This Communication focuses on situations of protracted forced NEAR cooperation/ from Aid-dependence to Self DEVCO/ECHO/NEAR and displacement in partner countries due to conflict, violence and humanitarian reliance. Forced Displacement and EEAS human rights violations, irrespective of the status of the assistance / Development (COM(2016) 234 i displaced under the 1951 Refugee Convention. Elements of
foreign policy final) 351 the new policy may also be applicable to displacement caused
by natural disasters and climatic events, while recognising
the different politics, contexts, needs and solutions.
N DEVCO / ENV Development Communication on preparing an EU Council Conclusions The new framework should be responsive to climate change as cooperation position on the post-2015 adopted in 2014. a cross-cutting issue.
development agenda (COM(2014)
-
335)352
N DEVCO Development Post-Cotonou: towards a renewed Joint communication: This Communication sets out the ideas and proposed building cooperation partnership with the countries of A renewed partnership with blocks for a renewed post-2020 political partnership with the Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific the countries of Africa, the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries.
Caribbean and the Pacific 353
Negative impacts of climate change are included in the list of significant problems the ACP countries are facing, with climate change remaining one of the most pressing threats to the
achievement of sustainable development.
One of the six priorities of the new political partnership is
351
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Lives in Dignity: from Aid-dependence to Self-reliance Forced Displacement and Development, COM(2016) 0234 final i.
352
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A decent Life for all: from vision to collective action, COM(2014) 335 i
353
Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council: A renewed partnership with the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific, JOIN(2016) 52 final i.
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
protecting the environment and fighting climate change. Under this priority, the partnership should enshrine a commitment to pro-poor climate resilience policies and should include commitments on, inter alia, the implementation of adaptation policies. Better preparedness, reduced exposure to vulnerability, and ability to recover from disasters are
considered as key to avoiding loss of lives and livelihoods.
In identifying topics of common interest and action, the partnership has to build on the experience of the high ambition
coalition process that paved the way for the Paris Agreement. N DEVCO Development The New European Consensus, Adopted. Recognizes the increased needs for climate change adaptation
Cooperation 30/06/2017 2017/C in the world, and includes it as one of the objectives of EU 210/01 development cooperation.
DEVCO Migration Communication on Adopted 26.4.2016 The Communication recognizes the link between climate Lives in Dignity: from Aid COM(2016) 234 final i change and forced displacement and also its possible impact on dependence to Self-reliance. Forced security.
Displacement and Development
Y ECHO Disaster risk Decision establishing a Union Civil Decision was adopted and is In Chapter II in order to fulfil the prevention objectives the prevention and Protection Mechanism currently in force: Decision Commissions shall “ establish and regularly update a management No 1313/2013/EU of the cross-sectoral overview and map of natural and man-made European Parliament and of disaster risks the Union may face, by taking a coherent the Council of 17 December approach across different policy areas that may address or 2013 on a Union Civil affect disaster prevention and taking due account of the likely
Protection Mechanism 354 impacts of climate change” and “encourage an exchange of
good practices on preparing national civil protection systems to
354
Decision No 1313/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
cope with the impact of climate change”. (Article 5)
Climate change adaptation is also mainstreamed into Chapter III on preparedness where it is indicated that a training network should be set up which shall aim to “enhance all phases of disaster management, taking into account adaptation to and
mitigation of climate change” (Article 13) N ECHO Disaster Risk Communication at the World Sept. 2015 Communication Summit is a UN initiative to improve humanitarian action, and
Reduction and Humanitarian Summit 'Towards the World one of the 4 themes is "Reducing Vulnerability and Managing Humanitarian Humanitarian Summit: A Risk" Assistance global partnership for principled and effective humanitarian action'. Follow up through 'Grand bargain on humanitarian financing' commitments
N ECHO Disaster Risk Overview of natural and man-made To be updated in 2017. Adaptation considerations are well reflected.
Reduction disaster risk in the EU, SWD(2014) Technical report by JRC on 134 final of 08.04.2014 comparison of national risk assessments already available.
N ECHO Disaster Risk Overview of Natural and Man-made May 2017 Commission Climate change and its impact on disaster risk in EU are Reduction Disaster Risks the European Union SWD “Overview of natural integrated.
may face, EU SWD (2017) 176 final and man-made disaster risks of 23.5.2017 the European Union may face” And JRC technical report
N ECHO Disaster Risk Risk Assessment and Mapping Voluntary guidelines Both include numerous references to climate change and Guidelines for Disaster Management developed in support of the climate change adaptation, e.g. taking into account climate Union Civil Protection change when preparing risk assessments and coherence with
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Reduction (2010) 355 and Risk Management Mechanism CCA measures
Capability Assessment Guidelines
(2015) 356
N ECHO Disaster Risk Civil protection peer review guidance Second round of peer Questions on links to climate change adaptation included in the
Reduction and frameworks 357 reviews in 2018-19 frameworks
extensively covers integration of CCA in disaster management activities
N ECHO Disaster Risk Commission Proposal to amend Currently under negotiations The proposal puts emphasis on reinforcing Member States' Reduction decision 1313/2013/EU on a Union with Council and Parliament prevention action, with due consideration of climate change Civil Protection Mechanism impacts and adaptation measures
N ECHO Disaster risk Sendai Framework Action Plan – a SWD 2016 (205) June 2016 The action plan is a compilation of activities carried out by reduction disaster risk-informed approach for different Commission Services which directly and indirectly all EU policies Updated once a year contribute to the implementation of the Sendai framework, DG CLIMA's actions on adaptation of relevance to the Action plan are included.
N ECHO/JRC Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Management DRMKC operational since Climate change and its impact on disaster risk in EU is Reduction Knowledge Centre (DRMKC) 2015, providing scienceintegrated.
policy interface among 10 CLIMA part of Steering Group DGs and Member States.
355
Commission Staff Working Paper: Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010) 1626 final
356
Commission Notice: Risk Management Capability Assessment Guidelines (2015/C 261/03)
357
www.eupeerreviews.eu In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
N EEAS Foreign policy EU Global Strategy July 2016 Currently being The EU’s 2016 Global Strategy on Foreign and Security implemented Policy 358 mentions climate change explicitly as a threat and considers economic resilience as an important area for the overall resilience of the EU, with climate change as a crosscutting disruptive element.
The text of the strategy reflects climate risks, noting that "Climate change and environmental degradation exacerbate potential conflict, in light of their impact on desertification, land degradation, and water and food scarcity". Resilience to shocks is a key concept of the strategy. However, the potential contribution of action on climate adaptation in these areas is not pursued in the document although it is clearly an element in Commission action under programmes such as the European Neighbourhood Instrument, and the Development Cooperation
Instrument. N EEAS Foreign Policy Joint communication on: ' A Strategic Climate change recognized as a threat multiplier for security
Approach to Resilience in the EU's JOIN(2017) 21 final i and migration. Climate resilience included as an important External Action', 2017 element of societal and economic resilience.
N FPI Foreign policy Partnership Instrument Regulation (EU) 234/2014 i The PI funds activities that support the external dimension of establishing a Partnership EU internal policies and help to address major global Instrument for cooperation challenges, including climate change. Though mitigation with third countries focused, adaptation is also considered.
The 2017 Annual Action Program for the PI, includes and Action Fiche for cooperation with major economies for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, with Adaptation planning, including the main pillars of the EU adaptation strategy and their key instruments being one of the four
358
Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe: A Global Strategy for the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy, European Commission, 2016.
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
thematic axes for intensified cooperation with the non-EU G20
members.
Y ENER Energy & Proposal for a Regulation on Regulation adopted: The Cost-Benefit Analyses shall consider systems resilience Transport guidelines for trans-European energy Regulation (EU) No (including resilience to climate change);
infrastructure 347/2013 of the European The selection criteria for Projects of Common Interest include Parliament and of the provisions on systems resilience (including resilience to
Council of 17 April 2013 359 climate change).
Y ENER / MOVE Energy & Regulation establishing the Regulation was adopted and The 8 th recital refers to the 20% climate mainstreaming target Transport Connecting Europe Facility is currently in force: and indicates that “it is important to ensure that climate change Regulation (EU) No mitigation and adaptation, as well as risk prevention and 1316/2013 of the European management, are promoted in the preparation, design and Parliament and of the implementation of projects of common interest."
Council of 11 December
2013 360 establishing the Reference to climate change also appears in other recitals,
Connecting Europe Facility, Article 22 (“Member States shall inform the Commission amending Regulation (EU) annually, if relevant through an interactive geographical and
No 361 913/2010 and technical information system, about the progress made in repealing Regulations (EC) implementing projects of common interest and the investments
No 680/2007 362 and (EC) made for this purpose, including the amount of support used with a view to attaining climate-change objectives”) and
No 67/2010 363
359
See footnote 83
360
Regulation (EU) No 1316/2013 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013
361
Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 September 2010
362
Regulation (EC) No 680/2007 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 June 2007
363
Regulation (EC) No 67/2010 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Article 27 on evaluation undertaken by the EC.
Y ENV Biodiversity COM(2011)244 i 364 on Our life A fitness check of the nature The 2017 Action Plan emphasises the importance of resilience insurance, our natural capital: an EU directives was carried out by to climate change. Its focus on addressing common challenges, biodiversity strategy to 2020 the Commission in 2015- including cross-border issues, is likely to involve a role for
2016, and reported in action on climate risks. The Action Plan and accompanying
Complemented by December 2016. The fitness SWD mentions climate resilience co-benefits in a number of
check report was followed places, and suggests updating guidance and other documents to
COM(2017) an Action Plan for in April 2017 by the reflect them, and to encourage contributions towards climate nature, people and the economy publication of an “Action objectives, A proposed adaptation strategy to deal with
Plan for nature, people and potential effects of invasive species and climate change on the economy” (COM (2017) fisheries in the Mediterranean is also included.
198 final) 365 .
Level(s) is a voluntary reporting framework that provides a common "sustainable" language for the buildings sector. It includes 6 macro objectives among which: "Efficient use of water resources particularly in areas of continuous or seasonal
N ENV Built Level(s) - Building sustainability
Published - In testing phase water stress" and looking at water reuse and rainwater
environment performance by voluntary participants until March 2020. harvesting; and "Adaptation and resilience to climate change"
looking at health and thermal comfort under projected future climate conditions, increased risk of extreme weather events and impacts on durability and resistance of building elements;
and increased risk of flooding.
364
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM(2011) 0244 final i
365
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: An Action Plan for nature, people and the economy, COM(2017) 0198 i
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y ENV Environment Proposed Commission Decision Commission Decision (EU) Adaptation as such is not mentioned in the articles of the laying down criteria and 2017/848 of 17 May 2017 Directive; however, adaptation to climate change is explicitly methodological standards on good laying down criteria and mentioned in the preamble (whereas clause 42) as a environmental status of marine methodological standards on justification for a flexible and adaptive approach to marine waters and specifications and good environmental status protection and management programmes, and for marine standardised methods for monitoring of marine waters and strategies to be updated on a regular basis.
and assessment, and repealing specifications and
Decision 2010/477 i/EU 366 ; and standardised methods for The new Commission Decision acknowledges that marine
monitoring and assessment, ecosystems will change and that the determination of GES
proposed Commission Directive and repealing Decision needs to be periodically adapted to reflect such changes
amending Directive 2008/56/EC i 367 2010/477/EU In force (MSFD allows this updating every 6 years): see notably Recital of the European Parliament and of 13, and Art. 4.1i. The new MSFD Annex III includes the Council as regards the indicative parameters that are relevant for monitoring climate change lists of elements to be taken into effects. The general focus of the descriptors and hence GES account for the preparation of marine overall is on issues other than climate change, but there are two
strategies key issues relating to climate change: a) how to determine and assess GES in a dynamic
ecosystem context (hence the need to understand climatic change in our seas and distinguish this from the more 'local' and directly manageable effects of pressures that MSFD can
deal with) b) whether achieving GES will bring a degree of resilience to our oceans (through reducing the adverse effects of pollution, deterioration in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, etc.) that can help mitigate the wider effects of climate change (especially ocean acidification).
366
Commission Decision of 1 September 2010 on criteria and methodological standards on good environmental status of marine waters (notified under document C(2010) 5956, 2010/477/EU
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y ENV Environment COM(2012) 628 i: Proposal for a Directive 2014/52 i/EU of the The review of the EIA Directive put climate change more Directive of the European Parliament European Parliament and of directly in the assessment requirements. Article 3 now and of the Council amending the Council of 16 April specifically refers to climate as a factor that needs to be taken Directive 2011/92 i/EU on the 2014 amending Directive into consideration. For Annex II projects “the risk of major assessment of the effects of certain 2011/92/EU on the accidents and/or disasters which are relevant to the project public and private projects on the assessment of the effects of concerned, including those caused by climate change, in
environment 368 certain public and private accordance with scientific knowledge” should be considered.
projects on the Furthermore, a description of the likely significant effects of
environment 369 the project on the environment resulting from “the impact of
the project on climate (for example the nature and magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions) and the vulnerability of the
project to climate change” should be included. Y ENV Water Follow up to the 2012 Water Blueprint adopted on Climate Change adaptation considerations are reflected in
management Blueprint 12.11.2012, COM(2012) several of the proposals of the Blueprint that were included and 673 and 672, Council worked upon during the Work Programmes 2013-2015 and Conclusions endorsing it 2016-2018 of the Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) of adopted on 17.12.2012. the Water Framework and Floods Directives. This has included Blueprint remains relevant, the drafting and adoption by Member States of a Guidance however the timescale for document on Ecological flows 370 , and a Policy Document to all the specific actions under promote uptake of Natural Water Retention Measures 371 , a the Blueprint has elapsed Guidance document on Integrating Water Reuse into Water (other than for those stated Planning and Management in the context of the Water
368
Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2011/92 i/EU, COM(2012) 0628 final i
369
Directive 2014/52 i/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014
370
Ecological flows in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive Guidance Document No.31, Technical Report – 2015 – 086, European Commission, 2015
371
EU policy document on Natural Water Retention Measures, Technical Report – 2014 – 082, European Commission, 2014 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
as "ongoing"). Framework Directive (WFD) Water Reuse, promoting best practice for the reduction of leakages 372 , Integrating WFD in to the CAP, a Guidance document on Water Accounts 373 and Guidance on Exemptions to the Environmental Objectives according to Article 4(7)of the WFD 374 . In addition a pilot project to build on the knowledge base and promote the uptake on NWRM platform has been set up, running between 2014 and 2015. 375
Finally, a legal proposal for “Minimum requirements for water reuse in the EU” was adopted by the Commission on 28 May
2018. Y ENV Invasive alien Proposal for a regulation of the Regulation (EU) No The regulation does not mention adaptation.
species European parliament and of the 1143/2014 of the European Climate change appears in the context of increased risk of council on the prevention and Parliament and of the invasive alien species. Recital 2 indicates that “the risks such management of the introduction and Council of 22 October 2014 species pose may intensify due to increased global trade,
spread of invasive alien species 376 on the prevention and transport, tourism and climate change”. Furthermore, Article 5
management of the requires the undertaking of a risk assessment which should introduction and spread of include “a thorough assessment of the risk of introduction,
invasive alien species 377 establishment and spread in relevant biogeographical regions in
current conditions and in foreseeable climate change
conditions”.
At the same time, Article 2 specifically says that the regulation
does not apply to “species changing their natural range without
372
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/quantity/building_blocks.htm
373
Guidance document on the application of water balances for supporting the implementation of the WFD version 6.1, European Commission, 2015
374
Guidance document on Exemptions to the Environmental Objectives according to Article 4(7), European Commission, 2017
375
www.nwrm.eu
376
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread of invasive alien species, COM(2013) 0620 final i
377
Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 2014 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
human intervention, in response to changing ecological conditions and climate change”.
Y ENV Nature Guidelines on Climate Change and Guidelines on Climate Change The whole guidance focuses on climate change and it provides Protection Natura 2000 and Natura 2000 : Dealing with a detailed assessment on the ways in which Natura 2000 sites
the impact of climate change can offer nature based solutions to help in climate
on the management of the
Natura 2000 Network of areas adaptation. Furthermore, it provides detailed guidance on the types of adaptation measures that are needed for the
of high biodiversity value 378 Natura2000 sites, which will remain essential safe havens for
Europe’s biodiversity, strengthening resilience to climate changes and giving nature the necessary space to adapt to new climatic situations.
Y ENV Biodiversity Communication on green COM(2013) 249 i : The link between green infrastructure (GI) and climate change
infrastructure Communication from the and disaster risk management are presented in a dedicated Commission to the European chapter within the Communication. This chapter emphasises
Parliament, the Council, the
European Economic and Social the role of GI in climate change adaptation and it calls for
Committee and the Committee greater use of ecosystem-based approaches.
of the Regions on Green
Infrastructure (GI) — The Communication also refers to the EU Adaptation Enhancing Europe’s Natural Strategy: “The recent EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Capital. Communication Change therefore aims to explore the need for additional
adopted on 06/05/2013 379 guidance for authorities and decision-makers, civil society,
private business and conservation practitioners on ensuring the full mobilisation of ecosystem-based approaches to
adaptation." A report on the review of progress in implementing the GI strategy has been carried out in 2017, and
378
Guidelines on Climate Change and Natura 2000, Technical Report – 2013 – 068, European Commission, 2013
379
See footnote 233 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
should be published by mid-2018...
N ENV EIA Strategic Environmental Assessment Under evaluation The Directive is currently under evaluation until end 2019. The (SEA) Directive (Directive 2001/42 i evaluation will also examine coherence with other policies, /EC) on the assessment of certain including climate change adaptation and mitigation.
plans and programmes on the An environmental assessment for plans and programmes environment falling under the scope of the SEA Directive should, among others, address the likely significant effects on the environment, including climatic factors.
N ENV EIA Guidance for integrating climate Guidelines published 380 Useful tool to indicate how climate change adaptation can be
change and biodiversity into EIA and included. SEA
N ENV Soil protection Guidelines on soil sealing (SWD(2012) 101 final/2) European Commission departments have prepared Guidelines (http://ec.europa.eu/environ on best practice to limit, mitigate or compensate soil sealing ment/soil/sealing_guidelines Soil sealing often affects fertile agricultural land, puts .htm) biodiversity at risk, increases the risk of flooding and water scarcity and contributes to global warming.
N ENV Urban European Green Capital and Ongoing Recognizing the cities' achievements in green growth and environment European Green Leaf Awards environmental sustainability, including adaptation to climate change.
N ENV Water Proposal for a Regulation of the Planned for 2018 Climate change adaptation is one of the reasons underlying the management European Parliament and of the (Commission proposal May promotion of water reuse and definition of minimum Council on minimum requirements 2018) requirements.
for water reuse was adopted by the Commission on 28 May 2018.
380
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Environmental Impact Assessment, European Commission, 2013; and Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Strategic Environmental Assessment, European Commission, 2013
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y ENV Environment Directive establishing a framework Under Fitness check DG ENV considers that climate change Adaptation is currently for Community action in the field of mainstreamed in the implementation of the Directive:
water policy (Water Framework As explained in the Water Framework Directive Common Directive) 2000/60/EC Implementation Strategy (CIS) Guidance 24 on ''River Basin Management in a Changing Climate'' although climate change is not explicitly included in the text of the WFD, the step-wise and cyclical approach of the river basin management planning process makes it well suited to adaptively manage climate change impacts. The above mentioned Guidance illustrates ways in which preparations can be made for climate change within River Basin Management Planning, including to tackle floods and droughts. A workshop in 2012 focussed on Groundwater aspects and Climate Change. According to the
Guidance Document, as agreed by all Member States, the 2 nd RBMPs which were due to be adopted at the end of 2015 should include climate change considerations and the designed Programmes of measures should be "climate proofed". Currently the EC is undertaking an assessment of these plans. Issues specific to flooding are primarily addressed through the Floods directive (see below). The review in 2012 of the Water Scarcity and Droughts Strategy, which was part of the Blueprint, addressed Climate Change and called for better integration of water scarcity and droughts management in the next cycles of WFD implementation. The Blueprint placed focus on the reduction of the vulnerability of water resource to different pressures (including the ones caused by climate change) and put forward several proposals to reinforce this aspect in WFD implementation. These have been followed by DG ENV and Member States under the CIS process and the 2013-2015 and 2016-2018 Work programmes (see follow-up to the Water Blueprint in the previous section). A number of actions aiming at efficiency in water use have been developed. These include Ecodesign and Eco-labelling for water using
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
appliances and development of the reference document on good practices on leakage management. There are efforts undertaken in leading Member States towards rational water management including implementation of water pricing based on recovery of costs of water services and incentives for efficient water use. It has been done through discussions and exchange of experiences, within CIS, on cost recovery and the drafting and adoption of guidance document on water accounts. The aim of the water accounts guidance is to promote a coherent framework to cross-evaluate the information on drivers, pressures and impacts on water quantity, in which climate change is expected to have relevant impacts. The Guidance on water accounts was based also on the results of 2014 grants for building water accounts, which provided useful recommendations and examples at sub-basin and basin scales. Further works on economic, hybrid and quality accounts, might be developed in the future in the form of ad hoc activities or
under other working groups’ activities
At the same time enforcement of water pricing implementation and addressing illegal abstraction are undertaken through exante conditionality assessment for accession to EU funding by Member States. In addition to the ex-ante we are active in influencing and assessing Member States' RDPs to ensure that they contribute positively towards climate change adaptation – both through the WFD agriculture working group and internal review of draft RDPs. Also in the internal review of other Operational Programs (Environment /Climate) for CF/ERDF in relation to water investments we support actions that focus on adaptation. Within LIFE work program the focus for the water priorities was placed on measures that contribute towards both mitigation and adaptation, with an emphasis on ecosystem resilience. The European Innovation Partnership on Water has
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
included Flood and Drought Risk Management as one of its priority areas, with several Action Groups working on the development of innovative approaches and solutions to deal
with the effects of climate change.
Y ENV Environment Directive on the assessment and Under Fitness check Climate change is already mainstreamed in the directive with (water management of flood risks explicit references, and is being mainstreamed also through its management) 2007/60/EC implementation:
The Floods directive explicitly refers to Climate Change and requires that the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment and the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs), which are periodically reviewed and if necessary updated, take into account the likely impacts of climate change on the occurrence of floods. It is also requires that impacts of climate change shall be taken into account by the Commission in drawing
Floods Directive Implementation reports.
Moreover the framework set out by the directive to manage flood risks which is based on preparedness, prevention, and protection is intrinsically an adaptation framework that aims ''at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods'' (accounting for the impact of climate
change on floods).
The 1st FRMPs were due to be adopted at the end of 2015 and were to be subsequently reported to the EC by end of March 2016. Currently the EC is undertaking an assessment of these
plans.
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
N ENV / DEVCO Sustainable Communication on the post 2015 2015 work programme More information needed with regards to relevance to climate
Development Sustainable Development Goals 381 adaptation.
N FISMA Capital Markets Communication COM(2018) 97 final i Adopted in March 2018, Adaptation to climate change is one of the categories in the Union - Action Plan on Financing presenting a number of proposal for a taxonomy. More specifically, it is one of the Sustainable Growth legislative proposals on first categories to be worked out, for which economic activities establishing a taxonomy for will be classified by the extent to which they contribute to environmentally sustainable adaptation as an environmentally sustainable objective.
objectives, non-financial reporting including climate risk disclosure and a standard on Green Bonds.
Y GROW Eurocodes and Commission Implementing Decision In May 2014, the European The European Standardisation Organisations adopted in 2016 a standardisation of 28.5.2014 on deciding to make a Commission gave the shortlist of 13 standards for revision, with work beginning in standardisation request to the European standardisation 2017. The specific activity is exclusively focused on adaptation European standardisation organisations (ESOs) a needs, and represents the mainstreaming of adaptation into organisations pursuant to Article 10 mandate to initiate standards for the areas of energy, transport, and buildings.
-
(1)of Regulation (EU) No 1025/2012 i standardisation activities. of the European Parliament and of Detailed information on the Council in support of progress on standardisation implementation of the EU Strategy is included in the main on Adaptation to Climate Change, report (see section 3.3.2.1).
C(2014) 3451 final 382
N GROW Construction / Strategy for the sustainable Communication adopted Adaptation is a cross cutting issue of the Thematic Groups put competitiveness of the construction in place for the Strategy implementation.
381
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A New Start, COM(2014) 0910 final i
382
Commission Implementing Decision of 28.5.2014, C(2014) 3451 final.
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Buildings sector and its Enterprises. COM (2012) 433 i In particular, Thematic Group 1 is looking at criteria related to adaptation for financing and insuring infrastructure investments.
GROW Construction / Regulation laying down harmonised Entered into force since July Climate change Adaptation is currently mainstreamed with the Buildings conditions for the marketing of 2013 tools and empowerments already available for the construction products (EU) 305/2011 implementation of the Regulation.
Since the demands set on the performance of construction products can always be adapted to climate change policy needs both at EU and at national level, and since newly developed aspects within the framework of Basic Work Requirements have enhanced and enlarged the field of such adaptation, the opportunities of implementing these policy choices are open
for use. N GROW Tourism Communication “Europe, the world's Communication adopted One of the action included in the Communication considered
No 1 tourist destination – a new COM (2010) 352 i to: political framework for tourism in (14) Facilitate identification by the European tourism industry Europe” of risks linked to climate change in order to avoid loss-making investments, and explore opportunities for developing and supplying alternative tourism services.
N GROW / ENV SMEs Communication on a "Green Action COM(2014) 440 i adopted on Sets out EU actions that support SMEs to become more
Plan for SMEs" 2 July 2014 383 and resource efficient, foster green entrepreneurship, promote accompanying SWD(2014) business opportunities in circular economy and facilitate access
213 384 to green markets
383
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Green Action Plan for SMEs: Enabling SMEs to turn environmental challenges into business opportunities, COM (2014) 440 i
384
Commission Staff Working Document: List of EU actions supporting SMEs in a green economy, SWD(2014) 0213 final In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y HOME Migration and COM(2011)743 i on The Global Migration has been a highly The “European agenda on migration” notes the importance of mobility Approach to Migration and active area of policy over climate as one of the root causes that need to be addressed,
Mobility 385 the years since publication implying that action on climate mitigation and on support for
of the adaptation strategy, adaptation through external aid is part of the solution. with a focus on solidarity However, there does not appear to be a systematic linkage among Member States in between climate risks, migration impacts, and Community addressing the refugee action (either in terms of preparing for refugee arrivals, or in
crisis. The underlying terms of focussing EU and national aid efforts). strategy for migration policy was set out in the 2015 Climate change impacts and their relevance to human mobility communication “A patterns are integrated in the ongoing work under the current European agenda on fitness check of the legal migration acquis. The fitness check migration” (COM(2015) should be finalized by the end of the year.
240 final). 386 There is an
ongoing fitness check of the legal migration acquis.
N RTD Research FP7/H2020 ECONADAPT In place ECONADAPT is an EC FP7 research project whose purpose is to support adaptation planning through building the knowledge base on the economics of adaptation to climate change and converting this into practical information for decision makers.
N RTD Research HELIX Finished Assisting decision-makers and the research community in making adaptation more understandable and manageable by providing a set of credible, coherent, global and regional views of different worlds at 2, 4 and 6°C, and now 1.5°C.
385
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility, COM(2011) 0743 final i.
386
Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee on the 'Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A European Agenda on Migration' (COM(2015) 240 final i)
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
N RTD Research COACCH Ongoing COACCH aims to advance a knowledge on climate change impacts and policy directly usable by stakeholder communities.
N RTD Public Health Draft Communication on Improving Under development CLIMA has proposed to include actions on vector management Health Security in the EU and on solutions to integrate climate data with epidemiological surveillance
A One Health approach to counteracting the threat from infectious diseases
MARE Maritime REGULATION (EU) No 1380/2013 Adopted in 2013 The CFP focuses on sustainable use of resources and it should
(Common Fisheries Policy) 387 respect the Water Framework Directive, take a long-term
approach and apply the precautionary principle.
N MARE Maritime policy Marine knowledge 2020 388 Ongoing. Mainstreaming includes using Copernicus Climate Change
services for adaptation of businesses that depend on marine resources to climate change, and a case study on coastal
erosion.
N MARE / ENV Employment Communication for a European Adopted February 2014 More information needed with regards to relevance to climate Strategy for more growth and jobs in adaptation.
Coastal and Maritime Tourism 389
Y MARE / ENV Maritime Directive 2014/89 i/EU of the In force “Through their maritime spatial plans, Member States shall aim spatial planning European Parliament and of the to contribute to the sustainable development of energy sectors
and integrated Council of 23 July 2014 390 at sea, of maritime transport, and of the fisheries and
coastal aquaculture sectors, and to the preservation, protection and
387 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32013R1380
388 https://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/policy/marine_knowledge_2020_en
389
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A European Strategy for more Growth and Jobs in Coastal and Maritime Tourism, COM(2014) 086 final i
390
Directive 2014/89 i/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
management establishing a framework for improvement of the environment, including resilience to maritime spatial planning climate change impacts.” (Article 5)
Y MOVE Energy & TEN-T Guidelines (Regulation (EU) Guidelines adopted During infrastructure planning, Member States shall give due Transport No 1315/2013 consideration to improving resilience to climate change and to environmental disasters.
N MOVE Transport EU-led governance of Core Network Specific analyses are EU-led governance of Core Network Corridors (CNCs) are networks Corridors (CNCs) currently being performed proactively paying attention to implications of climate change for each CNC (due by the on CNCs, as well as the need for adaptation.
end of 2017).
Y MOVE Transport Regulation was adopted and is In force Article 5 indicates that the TEN-T network should be resourcecurrently in force: Regulation (EU) efficient via the “adequate consideration of the vulnerability No 1315/2013 of the European of transport infrastructure with regard to a changing climate Parliament and of the Council of 11 as well as natural or man-made disasters, with a view to
December 2013 391 on Union addressing those challenges. Furthermore, Article 34 requires guidelines for the development of the that “during infrastructure planning, Member States shall give trans-European transport network and due consideration to improving resilience to climate change
repealing Decision No 661/2010/EU and to environmental disasters.
Y REGIO Regional The European Union Strategy for the Communications Climate change is in focus of the strategy Horizontal Action development Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR) concerning the European Climate. HA Climate covers mitigation and adaptation and Union Strategy for the ensures that the transnational cooperation between the Baltic Baltic Sea Region: Sea countries on climate issues is continuously prioritised and that major stakeholders are engaged in the policy debate.
10.6.2009 - COM(2009)
391
Regulation (EU) No 1315 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
248 final;
23.03.2012 - COM(2012) 128 final i
Y REGIO Regional The European Union Strategy for the Communication concerning The climate adaptation aspects of the strategy are addressed development Danube Region (EUSDR) the European Union under the environmental heading (priority area 5), with a Strategy for the Danube reference to the need for “Preventive and disaster management Region measures implemented jointly”. Cooperation in the areas of Green Infrastructure and application of long-term, ecosystembased solutions is also promoted by the Strategy.
N REGIO Regional The European Union Strategy for the Communication concerning Climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as disaster development Adriatic and Ionian Region the European Union risk management are horizontal principles for all four pillars.
(EUSAIR) Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region – 17.06.2014 – COM(2014) 357 final i
N REGIO Regional The European Union Strategy for the Communication concerning Climate change and risk prevention is one of the core priorities development Alpine Region (EUSALP) the European Union of the strategy. Action 8 focuses on risk management and
Strategy for the Alpine climate change adaptation. Region – 28.07.2015 - COM(2015) 366 final i
N REGIO Regional The four European Union Macro Report concerning the Commission has issued several reports concerning all the four development Regional Strategies governance of macro EU macro regional strategies. In the last implementation report regional strategies - (2016) climate change was mentioned as one of the areas
20.05.2014 - COM(2014) where macro-regional cooperation adds value. 284 final
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Report concerning the added value of macroregional strategies - 27.06.2013 - COM(2013) 468 final i
Report on the implementation of EU macro-regional strategies - 16.12.2016 - COM(2016) 805 final i pdf
Y REGIO Regional 'Common Provisions Regulation' on Regulation (EU) No - Recalls the ambition to devote at least 20 % of the budget of
development & the European Structural and 1303/2013 392 the Union to climate change objectives;
Cohesion Investment Funds - Climate change mitigation and adaptation are part of the policy horizontal principle of sustainable development observed by each Programme; - Introduces a methodology for gathering information on the support for climate change objectives; - Establishes 11 'Thematic Objectives' for the intervention of ESIF – where TO5 is dedicated to 'promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management' - Climate adaptation co-benefits from measures such as improved energy efficiency - Pre-conditions for funding (ex-ante conditionalities) also relevant. - Includes legal requirements on the climate proofing of major projects (investments in infrastructure of above EUR 50 or 75 million EU support))
392
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council, COM (2011) 615 i In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
-
-Fund specific regulations for ERDF, CF and ETC includes
investment priorities relevant to adaptation
-
-assessment (Application form) for major projects;
-
-Methodology for carrying out cost-benefit analyses for major
projects.
N REGIO Regional Implementing Regulation Implementing Regulation - Presents the methodology for tracking the financial support
development & (EU) No 215/2014 393 for climate change objectives (mitigation and adaptation);
Cohesion - Presents specific 'investment fields' for adaptation actions. policy Provisions on climate change adaptation included in the: -
Y REGIO Territorial The Urban Agenda for the EU Report from the The Pact of Amsterdam establishes an overarching Urban Cohesion & Commission to the Council Agenda for the EU and was agreed by EU Ministers Urban on the Urban Agenda for the responsible for Urban Matters on 30 May 2016. Climate development EU – 12.11.2017 - adaptation, including green infrastructure solutions, are one of COM(2017) 657 final i its priority themes. A Partnership on Climate Adaptation was been launched in 2017 offering a unique opportunity for local authorities, Member States, European Commission and other EU organisations to work together to deliver concrete improvements on the ground (through better regulation, better funding and better knowledge). This framework offers opportunities to advance urban adaptation action in Europe as well as mainstream and align adaptation action with other Urban Agenda Partnerships, such as Sustainable use of land and Nature-Based solutions, Circular Economy, Air quality and Energy transition. The Action Plan on climate adaptation is currently under development by the CA Partnership and is planned to be adopted by the end 2018.
393
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 215/2014 i of 7 March 2014 laying down rules for implementing Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013 i In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y REGIO Territorial Urban Innovative Action On-going UIA is an EU initiative funded by ERDF, aiming at testing Cohesion & innovative solutions at urban scale. The objective is to Urban capitalise and disseminate knowledge to the benefits of EU development cities. The 3 rd call of UIA, launched in October 2017, covers the topic of “adaptation to climate change”.
N REGIO Regional A stronger and renewed strategic Adopted A number of actions are assigned to DG CLIMA and have to development & partnership with the EU's outermost do with the promotion of adaptation in outermost regions, Cohesion regions COM(2017) 623 final i including LIFE support and the commitment to include policy outermost regions in any new or updated EU strategy for adaptation.
N REGIO Regional RegioStars awards On-going RegioStars Awards identify good practices in regional development & development and highlight original and innovative projects that Cohesion are attractive and inspiring to other regions. There are different policy award categories each year with climate being often of them,
N REGIO Regional European Week of Regions and On-going Annually organised week at which regional and urban development & Cities representatives from across Europe are sharing views and Cohesion approaches on how to best support smart, sustainable and policy inclusive growth in Europe with investments from EU cohesion policy.
N SANTE Health Regulation (EU) 2016/429 of the Adopted The regulation requires taking into account the link between European Parliament and of the animal health and climate change, i.e. that climate change may Council of 9 March 2016 on influence the emergence of new diseases, the prevalence of transmissible animal diseases and existing diseases and the geographic distribution of disease amending and repealing certain acts agents and vectors, including those affecting wildlife.
in the area of animal health (‘Animal Health Law’)
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status To what extent adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative EU
AS
Y SANTE Plant Health COM(2013) 267 i: Proposal for a Regulation (EU) 2016/2031 Recital 4 notes that “plant health is threatened by species Regulation of the European of the European Parliament injurious to plants and plant products which now present a Parliament and of the Council on of the Council of 26 greater risk of being introduced into the Union territory owing protective measures against pests of October 2016 on protective to globalisation of trade and climate change”.
plans 394 measures against pests of
plants, amending Regulations (EU) No 228/2013 i, (EU) No 652/2014 i and (EU) No 1143/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council and repealing Council Directives 69/464/EEC i, 74/647/EEC, 93/85/EEC i, 98/57/EC, 2000/29/EC i, 2006/91/EC i and 2007/33/EC
Table XI-2. COM legislative proposals currently with European Parliament and Council
In Lead DG Policy Area Title of initiative Status Level to which adaptation is mainstreamed in the initiative Strategy
N Budget MFF 2021-2027 <<<to be completed based on legal proposals 2021-
394
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on protective measures against pests of plants, COM(2013) 0267 final i
2027)
N AGRI Agriculture Review of political and Impact assessment finalised. The proposal aims to bring more harmonisation and build a legal framework for Commission proposal level playing field for organic producers. The strengthening organic production adopted in March 2014, and harmonisation of production rules may have a positive now in co-decision. effect on adaptation to climate change.
N CLIMA / ENER Energy and climate Energy Union Governance Agreement reached in The proposed Regulation on the Governance of the Energy trilogues. Union includes provisions on adaptation consistent with obligations under the Paris Agreement, notably by including adaptation goals in the future National Energy and Climate Plans and through more precise reporting requirements for Member States.
N EEAS Arctic policy JOIN(2016) 21 final i April Currently under discussion As climate change is a circumpolar challenge, the EU is ready 2016 An integrated in European Parliament to work with the Arctic states, indigenous peoples and relevant European Union policy for Arctic regional and multilateral fora to share experience, the Arctic expertise and information on climate change, impacts, adaptation and resilience, with a view to developing an ambitious climate adaptation agenda for the Arctic region.
N ENER Energy Proposal for a regulation Part of the Clean Energy The regulation includes preparedness of the electricity sector COM(2016)862 i 395 on risk Package; Council adopted a for extreme weather events, listing this in Recitals 2 and 13 preparedness in the general approach in and including it in Article 5 on establishing a methodology for electricity sector and December 2017 crisis scenarios in the electricity sector.
repealing Directive 2005/89/EC i 396 .
N FISMA Capital Capital Requirements Under revision Includes long term financing in critical infrastructure. The Requirements Regulation (EU) No revision means to increase long-termism in EU prudential
395
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on risk-preparedness in the electricity sector and repealing Directive 2005/89/EC i, COM(2016) 862 final i
396
Directive 2005/89/EC i of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 January 2006 concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment
575/2013 requirements for investors.
N FISMA Capital Markets Proposal for a regulation - Proposed by the Includes an article on adaptation as an environmental objective Union/Sustainable COM(2018)353 i/978670 Commission on 24 May in the context of environmentally sustainable economic Finance on the establishment of a 2018 activities
framework to facilitate sustainable investment
N FISMA Capital Markets Proposal for a regulation Proposed by the Includes adaptation as one of the elements of non-financial Union/Sustainable on disclosures relating to Commission on 24 May disclosure obligations in the context of sustainable Finance sustainable investments 2018 investments.
and sustainability risks and amending Directive (EU) 2016/2341
Annex XII Assessment of the quality of the evidence gathered in the evaluation support study
Notes below the table explain the basis for the description of the extent of evidence as high, medium or low for each type of evidence. The extent seeks to summarise both the coverage of the evidence and its depth.
Extent of each type of evidence for assessment of each evaluation question, in approximate order of data gathering
EQ1 EQ2 i EQ3 j EQ4 EQ5 EQ6 EQ7 EQ8 EQ9 EQ10
Literature review a H (L) (H) H L (L) M L H M
First stakeholder
workshop b L (M) M L L L
Targeted stakeholder
survey c M (L) (H) H L (L) 0 0 M L
Stakeholder interviews d H (L) (H) H M (L) H M H M
Second stakeholder
workshop e L (H) H H (H) M L
Interactive exercise with
Working Group 6 f L L L
Case studies g H H H
Open public
consultation h H (H) (M) M L (H) H 0 H H
Notes:
-
a.H, Coverage of 7 or more actions; M, coverage of 6 or more actions but limited information in literature examined; L, coverage of fewer than 6 actions
-
b.H, 20 or more questions; M, 10-20 questions; L, fewer than 10 questions; 0, no questions
-
c.Key: H, 20 or more questions; M, 10-20 questions; L, fewer than 10 questions
-
d.Key: M, addressed 2-4 actions; L, addressed 1 action.
-
e.A major focus of the second stakeholder workshop was on draft recommendations from the evaluation and a high level of evidence was collected on these. Key for evidence related to evaluation questions: H, over 10 inputs; M, 5-9 inputs; L, 1-4 inputs.
-
f.This brief exercise was carried out with Member State experts participating in a meeting of Working Group 6 on Adaptation of the Climate Change Committee on 24 January 2018. The experts were asked to vote for which of the draft conclusions in relation to Evaluation Question 4, 5 and 10 they considered the most pertinent.
-
g.Case studies relate to EQ4, EQ5 and EQ9 h. Key: H, 3 or more questions relate to the EQ; M, 2 questions; L, 1 question relates to EQ
-
i.Assessment of EQ2 was informed by the same inputs as EQ1.
-
j.Assessment of EQ3 is informed by the inputs to EQ4
Evidence gathering started with the literature survey and this provided limited evidence for assessment of Evaluation Questions 2, 5, 6 and 8.
The first stakeholder workshop provided valuable evidence in relation to the topics covered. However, it generally covered one action for the evaluation questions considered, so the extent of evidence was generally low.
The targeted stakeholder survey provided a moderate or high extent of evidence for Evaluation Questions 1, 3, 4 and 9. No questions were included on efficiency, and there was limited evidence for Evaluation Questions 2, 5, 6 and 10.
The stakeholder interviews were a substantial source of evidence, except for Evaluation Questions 2 and 6.
The second stakeholder workshop considered draft recommendations in detail. Contributions from the stakeholder panel and from the floor, provided additional evidence on Evaluation Questions 1, 9, 10 and particularly 4 and 5. A brief interactive exercise with members of Working Group 6 provided some limited evidence on
Evaluation Question 4, 5 and 10.
Case studies were chosen to illustrate key points arising from the evaluation questions. They were developed to enhance and support the key conclusions and recommendations for the report where the evidence is currently less strong and would benefit from further illustration
The open public consultation had 385 respondents, of which 217 were private individuals and 168 other stakeholders. One section of the consultation addressed general conclusions related to draft recommendations. In a section on specific and technical conclusions, there were three or more questions relating to each of Evaluation Questions
1, 7, 9 and 10. In particular, there were sufficient stakeholder responses to consider responses by stakeholder type where appropriate, providing evidence for Evaluation
Questions 2 and 6.
The greatest data limitation was with the data from the targeted stakeholder survey. Although the combined response from 60 participants allows consideration of most of the evaluation questions in detail, it does not permit partitioning of responses by stakeholder groups, as required for Evaluation Questions 2 and 6. There were 34 interviews in total, which were not intended to permit detailed assessment of evaluation questions by stakeholder type. Responses to the open public consultation have addressed this limitation in relation to EQ2 but the nature of responses does not enable provision of a response to EQ6.
Annex XIII Economic costs of climate change
Introduction
Anticipating the potential impacts of climate change and in which sectors they will be more important, is central to planning appropriate policy responses.
Unabated climate change will lead to economic costs, often known as the ‘costs of inaction’. A key issue for economic analysis – and especially macro-economic analysis - is the need to use consistent and harmonised socio-economic scenarios when modelling.
There are several possible combinations of mitigation and socio-economic scenarios used by different models, which explains the different timelines, scopes and warming levels mentioned below.
Economic costs in general
Globally, recent studies indicate that the economic costs of climate change may be high,
even with modest climate change. 397 The costs may rise significantly with greater
warming; unmitigated warming can reduce average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and enlarge global income inequality, relative to a scenario without climate change. 398
Looking at the past, a recent EEA study concludes that the total reported economic losses caused by weather and climate-related extremes in the EEA member countries over the period 1980-2016 was over EUR 433 billion 399 .
For the EU, estimations for the future have recently been made by the JRC under the PESETA III project.
The JRC PESETA III project estimates impacts from climate change for 11 sectors in the EU, analysing, for most of the sectoral studies, a high warming scenario and a 2°C warming scenario.
For 6 of those impact categories (residential energy demand, coastal floods, inland floods, labour productivity, agriculture and heat-related mortality) the potential impact on welfare (expressed as consumption) has been assessed. The impacts simulated are associated to climate change that would occur by the end of the century assuming a high
warming scenario. The overall welfare loss represents 1.9% of GDP 400 .
397 ECONADAPT: 'The Economics of Climate Change Adaptation'; CIRCLE 2 http://econadapt.eu/
398 Burke et al. 2015, Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature 527: 235– 239, doi:10.1038/nature15725. See also Burke et al. 2018, Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets Nature 557: 549–553, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9.
399 EEA Report No 15/2017, “Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe” (2017), updated in 2018 as part of the EEA indicator on 'Impacts of extreme weather and climate related events in the EEA member countries'. Based on NatCatSERVICE data received under institutional arrangements.
400 The JRC PESETA economic assessment is based on simulating what would be the impact of future climate change occurring on today's economy.
As the coverage of potential impacts is largely incomplete, the damage estimate is of course not equal to the total economic costs of climate change. These are likely to be significantly higher.
In this context, it should also be noted that estimating the costs of all climate impacts remains very challenging. It is difficult to capture, for example:
• Biophysical impacts without a monetary valuation, e.g. the effects of climate
change in ecosystems services.
• The damages due to possible climate tipping points. • The impact on the EU economy of impacts of climate change occurring in third
countries (transboundary effects), including issues such as migration.
JRC PESETA III does look at some transboundary effects. It estimates the additional welfare impact in the EU associated to changes in trade flows due to climate impacts occurring in third countries for four impact areas (residential energy demand, river flooding, labour productivity and agriculture). The transboundary effect was estimated to increase the EU welfare loss by 20%.
JRC PESETA III also finds that there is a clear North-South divide in the regional distribution of climate impacts across the EU, hidden behind the results for the whole of
Europe. This is evident in the effects on heat-related human mortality, labour productivity, water resources, habitat loss, energy demand for cooling and forest fires.
The Mediterranean area appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change.
Below a more detailed overview is given of the estimated impacts, without adaptation policies, in all 11 PESETA III sectors.
-
1.Coastal areas
By 2100 annual damages could reach up to €961 billion and annual population affected could be up to 3.65 million people under a high warming scenario and socio-economic
change. 401
-
2.River floods
Nowadays, average annual flood damage amounts to €5.3 billion. By 2100, annual flood damage could rise up to €112 billion under a high warming scenario and corresponding socio-economic scenario.
-
3.Droughts
Even under 2°C warming, Mediterranean regions will experience a strong reduction in soil moisture, while North and East Europe show a future increase in soil humidity. The projected patterns of change in soil drought hazard are actually a continuation of the drying and wetting trends observed across Europe over the past 50 years: more droughts in the west of the Mediterranean region and less droughts in Central and Eastern Europe.
401 Vousdoukas et al. 2018, Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe.
Nature Climate Change 8: 776–780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4
-
4.Agriculture
Even under 2°C warming, irrigated crop yield declines for most crops and regions in Europe, in large part due to a shortening of the growing season. Yield changes for rainfed crops depend on regional water availability and crop-specific water requirements.
-
5.Energy
By the end of century, under a high warming scenario, residential energy demand for heating and cooling is projected to decline by 27%. However, this positive EU average result hides strong differences between EU Member States.
-
6.Transport infrastructure
By the end of the century, under a high warming scenario, about 200 airports and 850 seaports of different size across the EU could face the risk of inundation due to higher sea levels and extreme weather events. Especially countries by the North Sea have the greatest number of airports at risk of coastal flooding that exceeds 1m.
-
7.Water resources
Under 2°C warming, annual median river flows are projected to increase in most of Europe, except for the Mediterranean, where a decrease in flow is projected in all four seasons. Southern European countries are projected to face increased water shortages.
For many countries in Central Europe, the projections indicate a reduced reliance on upstream inflow to meet local water demands.
-
8.Habitat loss in the Mediterranean
Under a high warming scenario, 16% of the present Mediterranean climate zone may become arid by the end of the century: an area equivalent to around half of Italy.
-
9.Forest fires
Mediterranean soils become drier, particularly under a high warming scenario. Areas exhibiting low soil moisture extend further northwards from the Mediterranean than nowadays. The present area of high moisture surrounding the Alps decreases in size with climate change. The danger of forest fires increases with climate change around the
Mediterranean, with Spain, Portugal and Turkey being the three countries with the highest danger risk.
-
10.Labour productivity
Under the high warming scenario, by the end of the century daily average outdoor labour productivity could decline by around 10-15% from present-day levels in several Southern
European countries. Countries in northern Europe could also see some smaller declines in daily average outdoor labour productivity.
-
11.Heat-related mortality
Climate change-attributable impacts on heat-related mortality are also studied under PESETA III, under a high warming scenario. EU annual mortality could largely increase by the end of the century, reaching 132,000 additional deaths/year, with most of the
increase occurring in the Southern regions 402 .
402 Forzieri G, Cescatti A, Batista e Silva F, Feyen L 2017. Increasing risk over time of weather-related
hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study. The Lancet Planetary Health 5
(e200-e208).
Annex XIV Case studies
Four case studies were developed in the evaluation support study 403 to enhance and
support the key conclusions and recommendations for the final report of the study.
Each case study was supported by a targeted literature review and up to 3 interviews with key stakeholders.
The format of each case study was tailored to its specific demands rather than adhering to a strict template.
As they constitute valuable evidence for the purposes of the evaluation SWD, they are reproduced in full in this Annex.
The case studies address:
-
1.Fire preparedness
-
2.Impacts of climate change of neighbouring countries and implications for EU trade
-
3.The Danube Macro-regional strategy and its contribution to action at Member State level
-
4.Adaptation of infrastructure in the energy sector.
403 See footnote 4.
Case Study 1 Fire preparedness and the impact of climate change
Context and the EU response
The purpose of this case study is to support the wider evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy by providing evidence about forest fire preparedness and coherence with adaptation at an EU level and in Member States.
The issue of forest fire preparedness in response to climate change has received EU attention for many years. It was the focus of an EU-wide workshop in 2010, convened by
Forest Europe (the brand name of the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, which is the pan-European voluntary high-level political process for dialogue and cooperation on forest policies in Europe). The workshop sought to: review current national forest fire prevention systems; identify innovative strategies, best available practices and possible policy instruments; and develop policy conclusions and recommendations for the EU. 404 Deliberations within the framework of Forest Europe eventually culminated in the establishment of a Forest Europe Expert Group on
Adaptation to Climate Change in 2017. Consideration of forest fire preparedness in relation to climate change adaptation planning has progressed since this workshop at national, regional and EU levels.
The EU Adaptation Strategy recognises the importance of ensuring a coherent and coordinated approach to the impacts of climate change at local, regional, national and EU levels. In particular, the Strategy acknowledges that more needs to be done to strengthen preparedness for natural and man-made hazards, and ensure disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are better aligned and integrated into planning. The evaluation of the Strategy has identified that, currently, both policy areas are sometimes mainstreamed in parallel into key EU policies and strategies rather than in consort.
However, with specific reference to forest fires, the EU LIFE Climate Action subprogramme has funded a number of projects that aim to address fire preparedness and climate change adaptation, including in relation to cross-border forest fires. A list of these projects and further details can be viewed by visiting the LIFE projects online database, selecting “Themes”, “Risk management” and “Natural risks – Flood, Forest
fire, Landslide” 405 .
Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and the Mediterranean region of France account for around 85% of the total burnt area in Europe each year. 406 For many countries within the EU, the likely impact of climate change on the severity/frequency of forest fires will be of great importance, based on current trends and projections. It is becoming ever more a reality, as noted in the most recent EEA report on climate change impacts in Europe. 407 In 2017, it was reported that the number of wild fires in forests across Europe had more than doubled compared to the previous year. These were severe across southern Europe, with
Portugal experiencing the most intense forest fires in October last year 408 . Up-to-date and
404 Forest Europe, 2010, Assessment of Forest Fire Risks and Innovative Strategies for Fire Prevention, 4–6 May 2010 Rhodes, Greece, Workshop Report.
405 A selection of LIFE projects funded since 2014 that address forest fires across the EU can be viewed here: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/project/Projects/index.cfm
406 Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2016, European Commission, 2017.
407 See footnote 113
408 http://www.euronews.com/2017/10/16/how-europe-s-wildfires-have-more-than-trebled-in-2017
comparable data across Europe is maintained by the European Forest fire Information
System (EFFIS) 409 .
The JRC PESETA II study 410 estimated that the burnt area of southern Europe would more than double with climate change. 411 Other researchers have concluded the same using current models (SREX A2), as noted in EEA’s report. 412 They also cited recent
findings that suggest a warmer climate across Europe will lead to a greater area becoming fire-prone with longer fire seasons. Specifically, the impact of fire events may
be strongest in southern Europe. 413
A follow-up JRC PESETA III study identified that the three countries with the highest fire risk are Spain, Portugal and Turkey; with Greece, part of central and southern Italy,
Mediterranean France, and the coastal region of the Balkans also being in increasing
danger both in relative and absolute terms 414 . A detailed mapping of wildfire risks by the
University of Leicester (2016) found Catalonia, Madrid and Valencia are among those
cities/regions that are most at risk 415 . EFFIS supports Member States’ services in charge
of forest protection against fires and provides Commission Services and the European Parliament with updated and reliable information on wildland fires in Europe 416 .
Countries need to address forest fire preparedness by planning and implementing actions to reduce climate vulnerability and increase adaptive capacities. Research suggests that forest fire risks could be substantially reduced if further adaptation measures are introduced, including silvicultural management to increase the structural diversity of plantations and simplified forest ecosystems, prescribed burning and use of fire breaks,
and behavioural changes. 417
Feedback from consultees
Representatives from a national authority in Spain and from the Provincial Council of Barcelona, Catalonia provided input to this case study. In addition to describing the overall approach to forest fire preparedness and climate change adaptation in the
Province, the latter also referred to the LIFE Montserrat project (described below), as an example of best practice.
409 http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
410 Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up analysis, see https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta
411 Climate impacts in Europe: The JRC PESETA II Project, European Commission, 2014.
412 See footnote 113
413 See footnote 113
414 de Rigo, D., Libertà, G., Houston Durrant, T., Artés Vivancos, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty, EUR 28926 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2017, ISBN: 978-92-79-77046-3, doi:10.2760/13180, JRC10897European
415 https://www2.le.ac.uk/offices/press/press-releases/2016/march/wildfire-map-reveals-countries-in href="https://www2.le.ac.uk/offices/press/press-releases/2016/march/wildfire-map-reveals-countries-in-europe-most-at-risk-of-catastrophic-fire-damage">europe-most-at-risk-of-catastrophic-fire-damage
416 http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
417 Khabarov, N et al., 2014, Forest Fires and adaptation options in Europe, Regional Environmental Change 16)1, 21-30 (doi: 10.1007/s101130-014-0621-0); and European Commission, Modelling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe Sectorial results of the PESETA II Project, 2017.
Spain has been proactive in seeking to integrate disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation planning at the national level 418 , as well as at the provincial and local
levels. The EU Adaptation Strategy has been a useful guide in preparing strategies and plans where the needs of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation coincide.
For example, the Provincial Council of Barcelona has followed EU and national-level guidance in supporting local administrations to develop supra-municipal strategies for forest fire preparedness; identifying and coordinating all actors in the territory.
Importantly, by downscaling EU and national strategies, sub-national responses have been tailored to local circumstances.
The Provincial Council of Barcelona has learnt from experience that planning and monitoring is essential to forest fire preparedness. A comprehensive stakeholder engagement plan is a critical part of this process. Engaging key actors (e.g. forest owners, the fire service, local authorities and the Catalan Government) minimises barriers to preventing forest fires. The Provincial Council adopts a holistic approach to forest fire preparedness through plans in relation to land, forest management, fire prevention and surveillance, fire management and land restoration. The Provincial Council encourages and actively supports dissemination of lessons, project-level actions and success stories at the regional level and networking with other national and community projects.
The LIFE Montserrat project 419 in Spain provides evidence of ongoing adaptation actions
in relation to fire risks. The Provincial Council reports that an increase in the frequency of wildfires in the Montserrat Mountain region is attributable to changes in land use and socioeconomic activities, and that climate change may have made fires more intense and severe. Increased development has led to a decline in traditional rural activities in the region while forest and scrubland areas with increased fuel load have expanded. The project is seeking to address the high fire risk in the region through nature-based solutions (e.g. sustainable forest management and livestock grazing) and increasing public awareness of the risks. The project provides additional co-benefits through conserving and restoring wildlife habitats, habitat connectivity and associated ecosystem services for people. The recent wildfires at the end of 2017 suggest that the LIFE
Montserrat project is a model that is worth replicating across the Mediterranean area, i.e. creating large managed areas to prevent widespread forest fires by combining extensive forest management with extensive grazing and restoring a traditional mosaic landscape.
Considerations for the future
The stakeholders who contributed to this case study identified a need to further enhance coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction across all levels of governance (global, European, national levels) via closer vertical and horizontal, cross-border and transnational coordination and collaboration. In particular, while the EU supports Member States through existing platforms (e.g. Climate-ADAPT), EU-wide conferences and research (e.g. LIFE, H2020) to capture and disseminate relevant experiences, lessons and approaches, the stakeholders felt that the EU Adaptation
Strategy could seek to strengthen collective and interconnected planning.
418 Moreno Rodriquez, 2014, Los incendios forestales en España en un contexto de cambio climático:
Información y herramientas para la adaptación. Available: http://www.adaptecca.es/sites/default/files/editor_documentos/infoadapt_memoria_final_proyecto.pdf
419 http://lifemontserrat.eu/en/
Case Study 2 Spillover effects from climate change impacts occurring outside the EU
Context and the EU response
Some stakeholders interviewed for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy have suggested that the Strategy does not sufficiently recognise and address the EU’s vulnerabilities to climate change impacts outside Europe, and of missing potential opportunities for cooperation with non-EU countries in that regard. Climate change worldwide may have consequences for trade, food security, immigration, and biodiversity. The purpose of this case study is to provide supporting evidence for the wider evaluation of the Strategy specifically with regard to the impact of climate change outside the EU on food production and supply within the EU.
The Strategy states that it takes account of global climate change impacts, including disruptions to supply chains and reduced access to food supplies, and spillover effects on
the EU. 420 However, the Strategy focuses on EU level and Member State actions and
does not explicitly address international climate change adaptation. Under Action 2 of the Strategy, the LIFE programme does give priority to adaptation flagship projects that address key cross-sectoral, trans-regional and/or cross-border issues. Guidance on the development of NASs also refers to transboundary issues. In addition, the Global
Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy identifies external climate risks and resilience challenges for the EU and addresses the potential impacts from a
development policy perspective. 421
In 2012, DG CLIMA commissioned a study to investigate spillover effects in the EU of climate change impacts occurring outside the EU. The research focused particularly on
European neighbourhood countries. 422 It identified that at that time, policy responses
generally at the EU, national and regional level did not address spillover effects of global climate change on the EU. The report went on to conclude that no matter how robust adaptation planning is within the EU, it will remain vulnerable to the impacts of climate change outside the EU, in particular, from neighbouring countries. Food production and supply has been recognised as a vulnerable priority sector to such spillover effects,
especially in relation to crops grown elsewhere on which the EU is reliant. 423
The EEA’s latest report on climate impacts in Europe, in 2016, 424 highlighted how
climate change impacts (e.g. heatwaves, prolonged drought and water scarcity) have already affected agricultural production outside the EU and had spillover effects on
Europe through regional or global markets and supply chains. For example, the 2010 wheat crisis in Russia, caused by severe heatwaves, destroyed 30% of Russia’s grain
420 See footnote 1
421 Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe: A Global Strategy for the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy, European Commission, 2016.
422 AMEC, Assessing the spillover effects in the EU of the adverse effects of climate change in the rest of the world, in particular the EU's Neighbourhood countries, Study for the European Commission, 2013
423 Stockholm Environment Institute, Introducing the transnational climate impacts index: indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report, 2016
424 'Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016, Report No 1/2017', European Environment Agency, 2017: Chapter 6.4
harvest, resulting in an export ban on wheat that contributed to a 60% to 80% increase in
global wheat prices. 425
Based on an assessment of current evidence (as summarised above), the EEA 426 identified a number of priority vulnerabilities for Europe from climate change impacts outside the EU that are of relevance to food production and supply:
• Economic effects through climate-induced price volatilities. • Disruption to transport networks and possible new shipping routes (e.g. melting
of polar ice).
Feedback from Member States
Representatives of three Member State authorities were consulted with regard to this case study. It appears from these consultations that the issue of spillover effects, at least in relation to food production and supply, has not yet been addressed by some, and perhaps all, NASs or plans. One Member State confirmed that it was unaware of this issue at the time of preparing its first national adaptation plan and that, as it had not been raised as a concern, it was not factored in to its future adaptation planning priorities. Another
Member State noted that while its current national adaptation plan did not address the issue of spillover effects, future iterations of the plan would consider such impacts. A third Member State reflected that there is a need for clarity as to what is meant by spillover effects, for example, in relation to their link with climate change as compared with other drivers and policies. It noted also that there is very little literature and guidance available on this issue and that a subsequent EU-level review of relevant existing studies at the sector level would be helpful, for example, in relation to impacts on food production and supply within the EU. In addition, it questioned if the EU
Adaptation Strategy is the best place to address spillover effects or whether they should be addressed by other policies.
Considerations for the future
Reflecting on the EU response to date and feedback from Member States, there appears to be a need for the EU to review existing evidence and invest, where necessary, in further research in order to identify Europe’s vulnerabilities to climate change impacts elsewhere, particularly in neighbouring countries. This would then enable the EU to consider the extent of likely impacts from spillover effects on Member States and commensurate actions required within and beyond Europe to increase the EU’s resilience to climate change. Guidance could subsequently be provided to Member States on the potential urgency of preparing for these impacts, for example, through/during review and further development of NASs.
References
Benzie, M., T. Carter, F. Groundstroem H. Carlsen, G. Savvidou, N. Pirttioja, R. Taylor & A. Dzebo (2017). Implications for the EU of cross-border climate change impacts, EU
FP7 IMPRESSIONS Project Deliverable D3A.2.
425 Foresight, 2011, The future of food and farming. Final project report, the Government office for Science; and Coghlan et al., 2014, A sign of things to come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010-2013.
426 'Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016, Report No 1/2017', European Environment Agency, 2017: Chapter 6.4
Ercin A.E, Chico D., and Chapagain A. K. (2016) Dependencies of Europe’s economy on other parts of the world in terms of water resources, Horizon2020 - IMPREX project,
Technical Report D12.1, Water Footprint Network.
AMEC Environment & infrastructure UK Limited, Bio Intelligence Service, Cambridge Econometrics and Millieu (2012) Assessing the spillover effects in the EU of the adverse effects of climate change in the rest of the world, in particular the EU's Neighbourhood countries', European Commission – DG CLIMA
European Commission (2013) An EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, COM 216
European Commission (2016) Shared vision, common action: a stronger Europe. A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy.
European Environment Agency (2017) Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016: An indicator-based report, EEA Report, No 1/2017
Case Study 3 The Danube macro-regional strategy and its contribution to action at Member State level
Context and the EU response
The Danube macro-regional strategy was presented by the Commission in 2010 427 , following a request from the European Council in June 2009 428 ; and was then endorsed by Council and European Council 429 . It was developed in consultation with Member
States in the region and other stakeholders. The strategy proposed a focus on three issues: improved connections within the Danube region; better protection of the environment; and shared action to increase prosperity. The climate adaptation aspects of the macroregional strategy are addressed under the environmental heading (Priority Action 5), with a reference to the need for: “Preventive and disaster management measures implemented jointly, for example as required by the Floods, Seveso, Mining Waste or Environmental
Liability Directives. Work undertaken in isolation simply displaces the problem and puts neighbouring regions in difficulty. Increasing frequency of droughts is also an issue, as is adaptation to climate change.” The macro-regional strategy goes on to note that:
“Regional cooperation must facilitate Green Infrastructure, application of long-term, ecosystem-based solutions, and learning from previous events.”
While the macro-regional strategy was neither directly focused on climate adaptation nor directly addressed the importance of Member States adopting adaptation strategies, it, nevertheless, had the potential to encourage and facilitate both the development of national strategies and, as importantly, a better focus on transboundary issues. The EU
Adaptation Strategy itself notes the relevance of macro-regional strategies including the EU Strategy for the Danube Region (EUSDR), as a framework for transboundary projects under cohesion policy.
Feedback from stakeholders
The main focus of the case study has been on the experience of national focal points, who are important elements in the governance arrangements for the macro-regional
strategy 430 . Different countries coordinate the individual priority actions of the macroregional
strategy; Hungary, for example, coordinates the priority actions on environmental protection (Priority Action 5) and water quality (Priority Action 4). For each priority action, coordination points are established in each of the 14 participating countries 431 . Participants felt that this was a highly important element in progress made under the macro-regional strategy; if an issue needed to be addressed, it was possible to identify relatively quickly, using the contact points, relevant interlocutors, either in a national administration, or in academia in a neighbouring country.
427 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: European Union Strategy for Danube Region, COM (2010) 0715 final i
428 Presidency conclusions of the 18/19 June 2009. Council of the European Union, 2009.
429 Council conclusions on the European Union Strategy for the Danube Region 13 April 2011. Council of the European Union, 2011; and Conclusions of the European Council 23/24 June 2011, European Council, 2011.
430 For a fuller account of governance arrangements for the strategies, see; Council conclusions of the governance of macro-regional strategies 21 October 2014, General Affairs Council, 2014
431 EU Member States: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. Non Member States: Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro
Adoption of the macro-regional strategy built on the views of stakeholders, as well as experience working in the more formal structures of the International Convention on the
Protection of the Danube River; although the subjects covered by the EUSDR were broader, going beyond those connected to the river itself. Interviewees noted that the
EUSDR structures were less formal and, therefore, more flexible, but also less capable of securing commitments backed by the full authority of a participating country.
The EUSDR does not have its own funding sources (the so-called “three no’s” – no new funding; no new legislation; and no new institutions – were important principles in the development of EU policy on macro-regional strategies) 432 . However, participating countries can commit funding jointly or individually; and the EUSDR has a close relationship with the managing authority for the Danube Transnational Programme under
European Territorial Cooperation (ETC). This managing authority has funding of EUR 274 million available over the current 2014-2020 programming period and can issue letters of recommendation for projects, which are closely aligned to EUSDR priorities.
The letters of recommendation are regarded as an effective means of influencing funding decisions.
Under the EUSDR, action plans are established for three-year periods. The focus on adaptation has strengthened following the adoption by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) of the “ICPDR Strategy on Adaptation to
Climate Change”. The current plan under Priority Action 5 covers the 2017-2019 period. It focuses particularly on improved knowledge and understanding of climate-related risks, including stakeholder and practitioner seminars and guidance documents on issues such as flood protection education and flood risk assessment in the Danube. Other areas include drought management, sectoral impacts (including forestry and agriculture) on water management, and improving forecasting models. Examples of action under the macro-regional strategy include the development – in partnership with the EU-funded
SEERISK research project – of a “Guideline on Climate Change Adaptation and Risk
Assessment in the Danube Macro-region” 433 , published in 2014, which provides
guidance on a common approach to identification and management of risk. The transboundary nature of the issue means that “collaboration between neighbouring countries and harmonization of the existing practices and methods are essential”. More recent work has included the WaterAtRisk project, which is providing improved monitoring and shared risk management systems for watercourses vulnerable to flooding events on the Hungary/Serbia border 434 ; and workshops on improving flood protection education.
The climate adaptation priorities, or water management priorities, of the countries involved in the EUSDR differ, based particularly on geography. For example, upstream countries tend to be less concerned about ice flow management in winter, while this is an issue for downstream countries such as Hungary, Serbia and Bulgaria. Similarly, in terms of modelling, upstream countries place a higher priority on the accuracy of short-term meteorological forecasting, given their exposure to rapidly-developing flood risks; while downstream countries have a much greater interest in hydrological forecasting, including long-term projections for the types of flood risk that they may face (and may need to
432 See, for instance, the emphasis on these principles in the Council conclusions on governance mentioned in footnote 430.
433 SEERISK 2014. Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment in the Danube macroregion
434 See information on the EUSDR website at https://www.danubeenvironmentalrisks.eu/wateratrisk-1
prepare for) 435 . The benefit of the EUSDR is in providing a framework for discussion,
which ensure that the needs of downstream countries are take into account by upstream countries (e.g. through enhanced provision of data for modelling purposes). It was stressed by interviewees that full alignment of priorities was not necessary for improved cooperation.
Interviewees were clear that the EUSDR had helped participating countries identify and respond to transboundary adaptation challenges, particularly through improved dialogue and exchange of information. The EUSDR is referred to directly in NASs adopted since it was put in place (e.g. in the Hungarian revised NAS, adopted in 2017). It is also notable that three of the four countries identified in the Commission’s assessment of
Member State adaptation activity are participants in the EUSDR (criterion 3d, “Climate risks/ vulnerability assessments take transboundary risks into account, when relevant”, assessed as met by Czech Republic, Germany, and Romania). The EUSDR has also proved to be a valuable structure for enabling cooperation on river basin management plans and flood risk management plans required under EU legislation, and for developing projects which can then apply for funding from other sources, particularly cross-border and pre-accession programmes under the European Regional Development Fund. As such, the macro-regional strategy maximises the coherence in practice of EU instruments, including through effective cross-border implementation of legislation and investment programmes.
In line with the principle that new institutions should not be established by the macroregional strategies, the EUSDR has been able to make use of structures and cooperation already in place under the auspices of the ICPDR. A joint paper on cooperation and
synergy 436 sets out steps to further strengthen that cooperation and to improve
information flows. Participants explain that while the ICPDR provides a formal mechanism through which the participating countries can make commitments which have the full backing of their governments, EUSDR mechanisms provide a more informal but flexible approach to cooperation.
Considerations for the future
A number of suggestions were identified by interviewees for future work, either under the Danube Strategy or as lessons which could be considered by other macro-regional cooperative approaches to tackling climate adaptation.
Future work under the Danube Strategy could particularly focus on improving shared models for climate and hydrology, as well as on improving the understanding and use of the outputs of those models. A clear strength of the EUSDR approach was that it enabled an exchange of views and experience at the level of technical practitioners.
Another potentially fruitful area would be cooperation at the local level, including through Covenant of Mayors participants. Cooperation to date has been mainly at the level of national authorities, although the benefits of sharing experience and best practice are clearly relevant at city level.
435 An issue also of particular relevance to the insurance sector: see for example the “Short response to the EU Adaptation Strategy Consultation – March 2018”, a consultation response submitted by the Oasis consortium
436 See ICPDR and EUSDR: “ICPDR – EUSDR PA4 & PA5 Coordination: Joint Paper on Cooperation and Synergy for the EUSDR Implementation.”
In terms of lessons for other macro-regions, it is important to identify areas of broad general interest for activity. Where issues appear of less relevance to a Member State, it is less likely that its experts will attend meetings; which could weaken the relevance and completeness of the understanding emerging from discussions.
The approach of providing letters of recommendation in support of projects, which are aligned with, or necessary for implementing, the goals of the macro-regional strategy has been a valuable mechanism to enable relevant projects to demonstrate their importance to potential funders.
Where regional cooperation also depends on non-EU Member States participation, particular attention needs to be paid to the means of maximising cooperation. It is notable that in the EUSDR cooperation with some non-EU partners is effectively confined to the border zone itself, rather than to broader integrated water management within the relevant country. One simple approach, which has been useful, is to provide travel funding for expert participation from those countries.
The existence of the ICPDR and its established structures for formal cooperation has facilitated work under relevant EUSDR priority areas. The relatively less formal structures of the EUSDR are seen by participants as providing a more flexible means for taking forward cooperation (as the Commission’s 2016 report on implementation of the macro-regional strategies notes, “the EUSDR has very clearly contributed to an improved culture of cooperation”). In contrast, the formal endorsement of policies and agreements under the ICPDR provides greater certainty that governments are fully committed. Both approaches have been part of an improved culture of cooperation, however, careful attention to ensuring that relationships between the bodies maximise the synergies and effectiveness of cooperation is recommended.
Summary and conclusions
Experience in the EUSDR suggests that transboundary cooperation mechanisms can significantly facilitate and enhance cooperation on climate adaptation issues, including those where the degree of political priority for action was greater in some countries than in others. The process is, however, a gradual one; networks of contacts develop over time, as does a shared willingness to address challenges. The Danube’s geography provides a clear geographical rationale for cooperation, and helps to ensure that all relevant countries participate. Similar geographical structures and shared biophysical climate risks (based on shared river basins, or seas) are, therefore, likely to be the most effective basis for similar strategies in future. However, more ad hoc structures could also be of value, including the enhanced sharing of experience and best practice through mechanisms such as the Covenant of Mayors.
Case Study 4 Adaptation of infrastructure in the energy sector
Context
Energy infrastructures are critical. Due to the long economic life-spans of energy infrastructure, it is important to understand the hazards to which they are exposed at an early stage in order to carry out actions to protect them. The vulnerability of energy transmission system operators and distribution system operators have been well
documented, 437 with a projected increase in frequency and intensity of storms, snowfall
and flooding events causing damages and disruptions throughout Europe. Specific examples are falling trees from strong winds breaking transmission cables, flooding leading to the short-circuiting of networks and heavy snow or ice loads causing failures
of overhead cables. 438
Climate variable Physical components Key impacts Level of impact
Wind and storm Overhead lines and Moderate to
Wind speed and damage pylons high storms Increased heat to 20%
convection Overhead lines
Up capacity
Cable
Decreased Overhead and resistance conductivity underground cables increases
Increasing ~0.4% per 1°C temperatures rise
Sag Overhead cable 4.5cm per 1°C rise
Thawing permafrost Substations and Potential loss of pylons supply
Extreme heat Buckling of structures Pylons Potential loss of supply
Alteration of soil Underground Reduces cable
Increasing drought moisture cables capacity
Shifting soil Underground cables Repair costs
Flood Substations Potential loss of
Flooding supply
Cable breakage Underground Potential loss of cables supply
437 Bartos et al., 2016, Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 11(11); and Asian Development Bank, 2012, Climate risk and adaptation in the electric power sector; and WBCSD, 2014, Building a resilient power sector, World Business Council for Sustainable Development.
438 Panteli and Mancarella, 2015, Influence of extreme weather and climate change on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible mitigation strategies, Electric Power Systems Research, 127, 259- 270.
Security of energy supply is crucial for business continuity and the well-being of citizens.
The impacts of energy transmission disruptions can vary spatially and temporally, based upon the relative magnitude of the climate event and the resilience of the energy infrastructure. Prolonged or frequent disruptions can cause reputational damage to service operators, with customers seeking more reliable alternate providers as a result.
This is in addition to the short-term repair costs and the longer-term costs from potentially higher insurance premiums and costs associated with necessary reconfigurations to networks. Finally, financial implications can arise via reduction of subsidies or financial penalties by governments for failure to supply electricity. By contrast, preventing climate disturbances transmission can benefit the security of supply.
In order to alleviate the impacts of climate change on transmission and distribution services, actors are taking innovative steps to protect their infrastructure. One such method, which is being employed throughout Europe, is the deployment of underground cabling. Such adaptation measure is versatile due to its ability to combat multiple climate-related risks, including flooding. Due to its resilience against such events, the undergrounding of cables has been included as a potential adaptation measure in the
Scottish and Southern Climate Change Adaptation Report and has been implemented throughout the entire transmission grid by Radius in Denmark. A few more detailed specific examples are presented below:
Finland: In areas of Europe which suffer from heavy snow such as Finland, energy DSO Elenia are currently installing underground cabling networks due to their perceived climate-proofing benefits. Jorma Myllymäki, Chief Operating Officer of Elenia, stated that “due to the aging infrastructure, the increased frequency of storms and heavy snow loads, Elenia began to think about the most cost-effective ways to adapt back in 2004-
2006. We then decided that after 2009 we would place no new overhead cables.” This has resulted in plans for 2017-2018 to include a further EUR 120 million investment to replace 3 000 km of overhead lines with underground equivalents, with an overarching goal to have 70% of over ground cabling underground by 2028. The costs of the action were not aided by EU funding, but will be carried by customers in the long term, in addition to leveraging costs from other financial mechanisms, such as bond
programmes 439 .
Such adaptation measures are stimulated by Finnish legislation stipulating that energy networks must be designed so that storms or snow load does not cause more than 6h breakdowns in town areas or more than 36h breakdowns in other areas 440 . In addition, the legislation requires distribution networks to comply with such rules by 2028, which coincides with Elenia’s planned goal of 70% of cabling placed underground. Jorma added that ‘to achieve the targets of having less than 6 hours of blackouts would be difficult to achieve with the previous overhead infrastructure’ whilst other companies are
continuing to use conventional strategies such as tree clearing to prevent outages 441 . This
represents the potential to gain an upper hand in the market for such firms, by avoiding reputational damage in addition to potential regulatory fines for not fulfilling their legal requirements.
Germany: The German government has opted to install 600 miles of underground cables to transmit energy throughout the country. Germany’s position with regard to uptake of
439 Communication with Jorma Myllymäki, February 12 th 2018
440 The Electricity Market Act was revised broadly in September of 2013
441 Communication with Jorma Myllymäki, February 12 th 2018
wind power and step away from nuclear has resulted in the requirement for new powerlink constructions to transport renewable energy from the windy north to consumers in the south. Underground construction of such transmissions has been partly implemented due to projected increased frequency of extreme weather events causing disruption to transmission and distribution networks. Another major determinant of these infrastructural measures was lack of community acceptance of traditional above-ground power lines. The additional construction costs of installing underground cables is estimated to cost between EUR 3-8 billion, which will likely to be added to consumers’ electricity bills 442 .
Considerations for the future
The examples show that energy companies are starting to take action to adapt to climate risks, prompted by governments and the financial implications of climate change. Yet these examples tend to be the exception rather than the rule. It is apparent that the focus will be on the private stakeholders in the energy system to invest in adaptation themselves. However, there can also be a role for the EU and national governments in creating the right market framework, funding research and sharing knowledge and good practice, such as we have seen in the case of Finland. Within the EU Adaptation Strategy the guidelines for project developers (Action 7 – ensuring more resilient infrastructure), standards for infrastructure development (Action 7), promotion of climate resilient investments (Action 8 - insurance) and infrastructure and knowledge development can all play a role in this, as would improving the requirements for these as a condition for structural funding (Action 6 - climate proofing EU policies). Doing so can result in benefits to Member States, such as contributing to the stability and security of energy supply.
442 Reuters staff, 2015.
| 14 Nov '18 |
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change COVER NOTE |
Secretary-General of the European Commission 14328/18 |
The EU Monitor enables its users to keep track of the European process of lawmaking, focusing on the relevant dossiers. It automatically signals developments in your chosen topics of interest. Apologies to unregistered users, we can no longer add new users.This service will discontinue in the near future.